Israeli Election Thread

[geni]

Do you have anything to base your skepticism on, Cleon? Can you point to any indicator which might show that Israel will be unable to forge ahead in all areas of science, industry, invention, finance, and social improvements?

I don't object to 'naysaying' but let's see something to back it up. Israel is not similar in political, social or religious norms as the USA and cannot be compared to the same set of parameters as Americans.

Domesticaly

I doubt the IT sector is going to pick up a vast amount.

With hammas in charge cheap palistian labour may be too much of a security risk

The next US adminstration is going to have to look for budget cuts and if the democrats win cutting aid to Israel becomes politialy viable.

Forein issues:

Iran.

 

[Cleon]

With hammas in charge cheap palistian labour may be too much of a security risk

To be fair, Israel hasn't been relying on Palestinian labor that much lately; they've got Russians instead.

 

[geni]

To be fair, Israel hasn't been relying on Palestinian labor that much lately; they've got Russians instead.

True but they appear to have largly stopped moveing in (and if many more do move in they are going to mess up the political stuff even further).

 

[Cleon]

True but they appear to have largly stopped moveing in (and if many more do move in they are going to mess up the political stuff even further).

Immigration as a whole has been declining steadily since the early 1990s. The Russians have become a self-sustaining community within Israel.

 

[Mycroft]

How will the election affect Sharon? Is there any further need to keep pumping oxygen into him now that the election is passed and Olmert has a mandate (assuming he gets a coaliton over the line)?

thanks web, I thought he was ventilated...I guess if he is breathing on his own they can hardly snuff him with a pillow or anything like that.

Can I assume once the election results are confrmed he becomes ordinary citizen Sharon?

Wow, I guess your outrage over insensitive humor only kicks in when someone of different political beliefs does it, huh?

 

[Darat]

From the warp news email round up:

...snip...

You can be excused for never having heard of the Pensioners' party.
Indeed, many Israeli voters may be mystified by the success of this nascent party, which has won a surprise seven seats in the country's general election. Conal Urquhart in the Guardian says the party had been regarded by most Israelis as a joke, while the Telegraph reveals that its leader 78-year-old Rafi Eitan is a former undercover agent whose nom de guerre was "Stinker".

...snip...

Is this a fair summary?

 

[webfusion]

Cleaon, your reply failed to offer any evidence of Israel being unable to progress as most analysts anticipate they are going to. My 'predictions' are totally with substance and have a firm basis. I can point to many indicators, in all spheres of the Israeli business and social environment. I really don't feel the need to sit here and waste my time by referencing the many sources which say so. Start with GLOBES, move onto TIME and work your way over to Jerusalem Report. You, on the other hand, just say "I don't think so" and leave it at that.

Also, your statement about immigration seems incorrect. AFAIK, there is MORE, not less, aliyah.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aliyah
2005 saw the highest rate of immigration from North America.

and

http://www.american.edu/initeb/as5415a/Israel_ICT/itWork.html

 

[Cleon]

Cleaon, your reply failed to offer any evidence

You seem to misunderstand. You're heralding the glorious future of the Israeli state based on the election of Kadima and the Shas nutcases. The onus is on you to present evidence of your predictions, not me. (Hint: "Analysts agree with me" is not evidence.)

Also, your statement about immigration seems incorrect. AFAIK, there is MORE, not less, aliyah.

Have you told these guys? They seem to disagree, and they're the ones keeping track. They must be terrorist-supporting naysayers or something.

 

[webfusion]

why nutcases?

Yes, the statistics show that the total immigration numbers are down, and I must admit that this information escaped my attention, as I was reading articles that merely mentioned immigration to Israel from the West. Those numbers are up. However, the Russian immigration has declined, and that skews the total lower than in previous years when the Russian jews were arriving en-mass and boosting the overall statistic. So, you are right, Cleon, "Immigration as a whole has been declining steadily since the early 1990s." -- most Russians who wanted to come had already done so, so that source levelled off.

As for my prediction of Israel improving, those results will appear in due time. It is empirically measurable.

SHAS nutcases? How so?

 

[Cleon]

As for my prediction of Israel improving, those results will appear in due time. It is empirically measurable.

This somehow reminds me of when Randi was on LKL with Sylvia Browne, and she made one of her health "predictions." When Randi informed her she was mistaken, she just sat back and said "you'll see..."

But your admission of error is noted.

SHAS nutcases? How so?

Are you kidding? This is the party run by Ovadia Yosef. The guy who said that Holocaust victims had it coming because they were the reincarnated souls of dead sinners!

More recently, he said that people who voted for Shas would go to heaven, and those who didn't would go to hell.

He. Runs. The. Party. I mean, come ON. This is not a political party for rational people, here. Ovadia Yosef is Israel's answer to Pat Robertson, and Shas is the equivalent of the Christian Coalition.

 

[Cleon]

I wanted to go back and further correct webfusion.

as I was reading articles that merely mentioned immigration to Israel from the West. Those numbers are up.

Not by much. According to the same site, immigration from the west isn't up by much.

 

[webfusion]

results are final

I didn't offer "you'll see" -- I said that the improvements can be empirically measured and will bear me out. More tourism. Higher GNP. Greater investments, further increases in Aliyah, etc. Most current indicators point to this trend, and now that the elections have concluded, the Israeli economic and social spheres seem to be poised to move in this direction. As I noted, your position of that stuff not happening as a result of these elections is easily disproved by looking at what occurs in the short term and certainly looking at how things progress through 2010. If Israel descends into turmoil along with financial and social instability, then you can say "webfusion erred" -- until then, I'm confident that my view is more representative of reality than yours.


Cleon notes:
"SHAS is not a political party for rational people, here."

Well, if you define torah-observant jews as being irrational, then you may have a point. Nevertheless, SHAS voters are not on the 'margins' of Israeli society, they are the mainstream. And 12 seats is nothing to sneeze at.

========================
According to the final results, Kadima now has 29 seats, Labor has 20, Shas and Likud have 12 each, Yisrael Beiteinu has 11, National Union-National Religious Party has nine, Pensioners' Party has seven, United Torah Judaism has six, Meretz five, Ra'am-Ta'al three, Hadash three and Balad three.

 

[Cleon]

I didn't offer "you'll see" -- I said that the improvements can be empirically measured and will bear me out.

Which is different from "you'll see" in what way, exactly?

More tourism. Higher GNP. Greater investments, further increases in Aliyah, etc. Most current indicators point to this trend,

Well, if you say so...

Well, if you define torah-observant jews as being irrational, then you may have a point.

Dude! Come ON, here! Holocaust victims had it coming because they were reincarnated sinners???!? How can you *possibly* defend a party that supports such lunacy? These guys are nuts!

ETA:

Rabbi Yosef on Ariel Sharon: "Let God strike him down."
Rabbi Yosef on Ashkenazim: "All the troubles come from Ashkenazim."

Hell, I'll take Rebbe Schneerson over this guy any day.

Nevertheless, SHAS voters are not on the 'margins' of Israeli society, they are the mainstream. And 12 seats is nothing to sneeze at.

Yes, I agree that this is very frightening.

 

[geni]

Yes, I agree that this is very frightening.

Not really. I can't see them expanding much beyond their central support base.

 

[zenith-nadir]

Web, you are "debating" with Cleon who will tell you how it is and then roll his eyes when you even hint he may be wrong.

Just a tip.

Yes, I agree that this is very frightening.

No, what is truely frightening is Hamas - a designated islamic terror organization - leading the Palestinians into the 21st century in a post 9-11 world. That is far more "frightening" than a bunch of torah-thumping jews who make stupid statements and won't drive or watch TV on saturdays....

Hamas defends bombing that killed 4 Israelis

GAZA (Reuters) - The Islamist group Hamas defended on Friday a suicide bombing that killed four Israelis as "resistance" against Israeli "crimes," putting it at odds with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, who condemned the attack.

Hamas described the attack as a "natural response to Israeli crimes." Information Minister Youssef Rizqa said: "Resistance is a legitimate right for people under occupation."

Israeli officials said the bomber, whose group is part of Abbas's Fatah faction, was disguised as a religious Jewish hitchhiker and blew himself up when Israelis in a car picked him up near a settlement late on Thursday.

(Emphasis mine)

Ya...ok Youssef...disguising yourself as a jew and suicide bombing a non-combatant elderly couple is "Resistance" and a "legitimate right".

This is why Olmert's convergence plan will go through as planned.

 

[webfusion]

I'll take Rebbe Schneerson over this guy any day.

The Lubavitcher Rav is deceased. So your comment has no relevance.

Well, if you say so...

It is certainly not just my unique opinion. Most indicators from many sources point to it. None point to the opposite, which is your unsupported claim. Can you show ONE source which might lead the casual observer to understand that Israel is about to experience financial, social or military reversals?

In this world, Cleon, predictions are made all the time, we could not function as humans without them. I go about my day making predictions of future events routinely. While driving my car, while organizing my schedule, while contacting friends, preparing work orders, etc, I'm constantly making judgements and evaluating possible/probable futures. When doing so, I look upon a known set of facts, and known indicators (if a guy has his turn signal on, I predict he'll turn --- this does not mean I can trust him to do so absolutely 100%, but in general, it's a fair and reasonable assumption, and I'll act upon this indicator).

Regarding SHAS as a factor in Israeli politics, there are some reports coming out now that PM Olmert is trying to minimize their inflluence in the coalition-to-be. Kadima sources revealed to the media that MK Lieberman is being approached as a main partner, even though his rightist constituency is not in favor of the 'convergence' which Olmert is planning.
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/700809.html

BTW - "convergence" is the new buzzword for "consolidation" of the larger blocs of jewish communities within the territories, and evacuation of all the smaller, isolated settlements.

 

[Cleon]

The Lubavitcher Rav is deceased. So your comment has no relevance.

Yeah, there was a point there that seems just a wee bit beyond your grasp.

It is certainly not just my unique opinion. Most indicators from many sources point to it.

Yes, you've said that several times now, and the only substantiation you offered (immigration) turned out to be incorrect.

 

[zenith-nadir]

Yeah, there was a point there that seems just a wee bit beyond your grasp.

See what I mean Web? You are obviously wrong and Cleon is obviously right...and just to make sure you know it he throws in a quick ad hom to be sure.

 

[geni]

No, what is truely frightening is Hamas - a designated islamic terror organization - leading the Palestinians into the 21st century in a post 9-11 world.

Not really. Isolate them and with luck they will be thrown out at the next election.

That is far more "frightening" than a bunch of torah-thumping jews who make stupid statements and won't drive or watch TV on saturdays....

A group that can get a significant number of seats in a country with nuclear weapons that are within range of where are live are a bit more of a worry. Still their numbers are still down on 1999 so I'm not too concernded just yet.

 

[webfusion]

Cleon, I noted that immigration from the West is up. This is true.
In any case, just because one indicator is not terribly strong to bolster my point, it's a logical fallacy to say this one thing can be extrapolated to prove your claim that the overall strength of Israel is not likely to improve with Kadima in power.

I ask (for the fourth time) WHY do you think that Kadima is going to be unable to improve things? Can you show us anything to support your pessimistic opinion?

I'll help you out, OK? I know how tough it is for you Cleon, to actually provide evidence of anything --- so here is a link to an article that can be interpreted to show there may be some troubles ahead, but they are not guaranteed to appear...
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/700328.html
TASE Drops 2 points...