Israel to Nuke Iran?

[geni]

In a clean environment, telling the difference between a plutonium and uranium bomb should be easy. Would that analysis be complicated if the explosion took place on top of a uranium processing facility, though? I can't say I know enough about the specific decay products you'd look for in the two cases. And how certain can we be that they do not have any uranium bombs in their stockpile? As DR pointed out, that's one drawback they face because of their status outside the NPT.

Uranium based weapons make little sense if you can build plutonium based ones.

Furthermore, I'm not sure how much of an impediment that would be in terms of putting the blame on Israel in muslim countries, where conspiracy theories are the norm. What happens if the governments of the west know it was Iran, but everyone in the middle east thinks it was Israel?

Not much. The countries that matter in the middel east (saudi arabia) would likely follow the western line.

 

[Ziggurat]

Oh please, indeed.

Tell me, why did you wonder particularly about what the EU might think in your scenario? Why not ponder what the US might think?

We're Israel's best and most important ally, we're Iran's biggest or second biggest enemy (depending on whether you place Israel first or second), and being an American, I think I have a pretty good handle on how we would react. In contrast, I have less information regarding the EU, but I know that the EU does not back the Israeli position as strongly as the US does on security issues (witness the whole Lebanon mess), they are less hostile to Iran than we are, and their reaction would be quite important since they are major trading partners with Israel (and economic reprisals would be the weapon Iran would most likely aim for in this hypothetical). Do you find anything I said in this post to be anti-European?

 

[Ziggurat]

Not much. The countries that matter in the middel east (saudi arabia) would likely follow the western line.

Good point: Sunni/Shia and Arab/Persian tension, coupled with Saudi fear of a nuclear-armed Iran, might do the trick.

 

[Solus]

There seems be great support for Israel in this thread and that's fine. Remember though the lives of four million Jews are just the same as lives of four million Iranians. We are all human beings. enough of this "us VS them thinking".

The real enemy in is this world is poverty and ignorance that's where all this nonsense comes from.

 

[webfusion]

Solus mentions:

Remember though the lives of four million Jews are just the same as lives of four million Iranians.

The Iranian leaders have indicated they would be inclined to launch ballistic missiles at Israel, and "wipe out" the entire population (jews and non-jews alike).

The Israelis are only planning on a limited and pin-point air-force strike operation to render certain underground facilities inoperative and useless for the purpose intended (nuclear-material enrichment centrifuges).

 

[TsarBomba]

You've tried this incredible garbage of a claim before, and you never replied to the challenge to your claim with any evidence. Your claim is complete twaddle. Codswallop. Bilgewater. I don't know why you're so prejudiced, but I assure you, it is complete crap to keep trying to claim most countries hate Jews.

Okay, to be fair, the following countries probably don't hate the Jews, or at least they don't really mean it: Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, some little islands in the South Pacific, and, of course, North America. Lets take a look at the rest of the world, and see who hates the Jews. I think that even Gurdur would agree that the populations of the following countries absolutely hate the Jews: Morocco, Lybia, Tunisia, Egypt, Sudan, Eritrea, Somalia, Nigeria, Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Quatar, Kuwait, Iraq, Turkey, Iran, India (at least 300 million of them, which in and of itself would constitute the third largest country in the world), Afganistan, Pakistan, Malasia, Indonesia, Palestine (I agree that it is not technically a country, but it is pretty darn close), Yemen (used to count as two countries), pretty much the entire former Soviet Union, i.e. Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Kazachstan (I mean, have you even seen Borat?), Uzbecistan, Armenia, (and a bunch of other little ones that I won't even try to spell), Albania, Serbia, Slovenia, Macedonia. I would hope that there is not even a dispute about all of these. Which brings us to pretty much the rest of the entire part of the planet that we used to call the "Third World." They were pretty much all members of the so-called "Non-Aligned Movement," which was one-sided against Israel from its inception (the inception of the Movement that is--Israel is older) and it was perfectly obvious to the most casual observer that they did not want Israel (i.e. millions of Jews) to exist in the first place. Which brings us to entire U.N, with the exception of like 12 countries, who said that "Zionism is Racism." Which brings us to Europe, where the media seems to have an almost sexual reaction when Jews are the victims of a terrorist atrocity.

In the end, this leaves us with, like I said, the U.S., Canada, and Israel, and I should have added Australia and New Zealand. To be fair, I probably left out a few countries that don't really matter that much on the world stage: Mexico, Fiji (and a bunch of other little Pacific Islands), Pitcarin Island (only like 50 people anyway, so what's the big deal?), and maybe, just maybe Argentina and Chile.

There's my "proof." There's my "rebuttal." There's my "opinion."

 

[gtc]

The real enemy in is this world is poverty and ignorance that's where all this nonsense comes from.

How so?

Israel isn't poor, Iran isn't particularly poor, most of the Middle East is sitting on enormous oil wealth and Osama is from a famously wealthy family.

 

[Gurdur]

...... I think that even Gurdur would agree that the populations of the following countries absolutely hate the Jews: Morocco, Lybia, Tunisia, Egypt, Sudan, Eritrea, Somalia, Nigeria, Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Quatar, Kuwait, Iraq, Turkey, Iran, India .....Afganistan, Pakistan, Malasia, Indonesia, Palestine .....Yemen ...... pretty much the entire former Soviet Union, i.e. Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Kazachstan

Why the hell do you think India and Turkey hate the Jews? Considering just how much Turkey cooperated militarily with Israel in the past, overtly and covertly, bloody strange claim of yours. Especially India. Nigeria and Indonesia don't give much of a flying fornication about Jews, fer crissakes; Indonesia hates Moslems (at least armed ones) much more.
That's 5 off that rather small list already; lemme see, you named 26 countries plus all the countries of the former USSR; let's say around 36 in total, 5 of which are illegitimately on that list, giving you only 31 examples, and I'm being kind there and allowing you to really overstretch.

(I mean, have you even seen Borat?), Uzbecistan,

Bugger a duck. Yes, I saw Borat, and I liked the film a lot, but fer crissakes, unless you grasp that much of Borat is satirical fiction and NOT a source to be used like this, then frankly you haven't got the slightest clue whatsoever.
Borat was far more accurate (in its satirical way) about racist bigotry in the USA, not Kazakhistan. Sheeeeeeeeeeeeeesh.

Armenia, (and a bunch of other little ones that I won't even try to spell),

Don't agree with you much, but I stretched the point to be kind to you and included them in the 31 examples above.

Albania, Serbia, Slovenia, Macedonia.

I note you still haven't even managed to name one single Western European country yet, even though you made such a point about naming "Europe" in your claim.
I'm going to be kind again, and allow you to have those 4 further examples, though I would personally say you are dead wrong about Albania. 35 halfway legitimate examples in all so far then in running total.

I would hope that there is not even a dispute about all of these.

I dunno why you "hope" that. Seems bloody odd to me. I would have thought you would have been glad to know that many countries despite your prejudice are not in fact markedly anti-Semitic.

Which brings us to pretty much the rest of the entire part of the planet that we used to call the "Third World."

I note you still haven't even managed to name one single Western European country yet, even though you made such a point about naming "Europe" in your claim. Sheeeesh? Sheeeeeeeesh.

and it was perfectly obvious to the most casual observer that they did not want Israel (i.e. millions of Jews) to exist in the first place.

No, here you make a major mistake, actually two major mistakes. The Non-Aligned Movement had its own politics, and criticism of Israel does NOT equal "not wanting Israel to exist"; and you can also explain how come the USSR and entire then Eastern Bloc voted in the UN for the creation of Israel, yet you note the anti-Semitism in some, if you want to try noting such politics. Begin to see your problem?

Which brings us to Europe, where the media seems to have an almost sexual reaction when Jews are the victims of a terrorist atrocity.

Yet another stupidly crappy claim of yours with absolutely no proof again.
*yawn*

There's my "proof." There's my "rebuttal." There's my "opinion."

And it's bugger all worth, your opinion on that is.
I counted up as many examples as I could without being ridiculous while still being kind to your claim, and came up with only round 50 to 60 countries where anti-Semitism could be mooted to be a major force, many of those countries having racism directed at other ethnic groups too. Since there are round 166 or more countries in the world, that does not constitute a majority by far.
And I note you make further crap claims without evidence, while also aiming specifically for "Europe", yet you did not name one single Western European country.

So like, you know, I'm even more convinced yours is a baseless prejudice, not a viable claim at all.

 

[Gurdur]

.... Do you find anything I said in this post to be anti-European?

The one particular post you refer to, no. It was debatable, but approaching reasnableness. However, the massive strawman you made before was most certainly only a chip on your shoulder; and I distinctly remember in previous threads noting that some of your anti-European statements were simply groundless bigotry.

 

[PogoPedant]

...(stuff)...

Not that Norway matters in the world, but we are a part of Western Europe, so this little tidbit probably fits here: After the last general elections we had for the first time since 1945 a situation where the majority of the parliament were not active members of the lobby group "Friends of Israel". That probably makes us frothing-at-the mouth jew haters, right?

There are drugs and treatments against paranoia, I believe.

 

[Solus]

How so?

Israel isn't poor, Iran isn't particularly poor, most of the Middle East is sitting on enormous oil wealth and Osama is from a famously wealthy family.

Damnation do I really have to answer this one...

First of all Israel doesn't matter. If the rest of the middle east wasn't so uneducated and poor, the people wouldn't care so much about the Israel issue. The nutty muslim groups would have very few followers.

Yes, the middle east has ENORMOUS wealth in the forum of oil. The problem is that only 1% or so of the population get to enjoy that extreme wealth, the rest of the population lives in poverty. That's the case more in Saudi Arabia though. Which conveniently has no info in the CIA factbook

Iran is better off but just look at this: https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/ir.html
I'm speaking just in the case of Iran here. Notice first the literacy, rate only 85%. Next look at the population below the poverty line, 40%. For this we can infer that the Iranians are poor and not very well educated. I won't look up the college statistics but I"m sure college is not common for most.

Now compare the united states :https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/us.html

Notice 99% literacy both sexes. Population below the poverty line in the United States is 12% according to the factbook.

Lets futher detemine what the word poverty line means http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poverty_line
I hate using wikipedia as a source of infomation but it'll do here.

Bottom line the more poverty a country has the worse off it is. Poverty leads to ignorance, and the reason is simple a poor person can't afford an education! What does a lack of an education of education result in? Please, I hope I don't have to explain what a lack of a real education results in do I?

If there was less poverty there would be more educated people and they wouldn't listen to morons like Osama and the Iranian leaders. If you live a poor life what else is there to look forward to but the next?

It's annocedital but EVERY poor person I've known has been very ignorant when it comes to history and world news ect.. People that are poor have more to worry about than fine ideals. And most of all no education means a person has little chance of learning CRITCAL THINKING!

 

[Hamradioguy]

Here's a little idle war-gaming scenario. This is not a likely scenario, so don't bother with arguing about why the setup won't happen - I'm proposing it only as an exercise in contemplating consequences IF it happened.

Suppose the Iranians are further ahead than suspected, and acquire a nuke before anyone thinks they have one, but they don't have a reliable delivery method. Suppose the Israelis get tipped that they are close, and so try a preventive air strike with conventional bombs. Suppose the Iranians blow up their own nuke during the raid (which is too big and clunky to deliver via ballistic missile, and cannot be delivered safely by any other means and is therefore of limited strategic use), and claim that the Israelis nuked their "peaceful" nuclear program. What happens then? Since this could be done at an out-of-the-way location, the cost to Iran might not be too high, but if they could get sanctions placed on Israel, it might be worth it. How would we know (other than that we trust the Israelis more than the Iranians) that it was an Iranian nuke and not Israeli? Who could we convince, and who could they convince? Most of the muslim world would likely swallow the Iranian version, but what about Europe? Who would they believe, and would they be willing to stand up to the muslim world in defense of Israel?

For a similar take on this kind of scenario read Doug Terman's "First Strike" or find a copy of the video "By Dawn's Early Light" (Based on the novel "Trinity's Child").