I would like to add some comments to one of ufology’s posts:
Q. How do you figure "aliens" is a reasonable explanation at all.
A. It's plausible and considerable effort has been made to rule out all natural or manmade explanations including hoaxes, misidentifications, mental or physical illness, hallucinations etc.
I would add that when no plausible mundane explanations are apparent, and despite a concerted research effort, if a UFO report remains to defy plausible mundane explanation (meaning its characteristics are that of no known mundane object) then the only way to move forward is to hypothesise (or even speculate) about other plausible explanations – and of course ET just happens to be one of those alternatives.
We have the anecdotal multiple eyewitness accounts of ostensible “nuts and bolts” craft, the intelligent control and the associated beings. We have the fact that science does not rule out potential ET visitation. We have the radar, film and photograph and physical trace evidence. It is this type of evidence that sets UFOlogy apart from other paranormal phenomena.
Quote: "There's no material evidence whatsoever"
Answer: That is a conclusion that is not reasonable. First of all, evidence and proof are two different concepts ( Rramjet made this point as well ). Evidence can take the form of information, and there is plenty of information. The value of that information is what is at issue. This thread doesn't claim the information is "proof", only that it is reasonable to consider that UFOs are something real that have yet to be fully explained and that they don't conform to any known manmade or natural object or phenomenon ( loose USAF definition there ).
Indeed, there is plenty of
evidence, but as the quality of that evidence is contentious, it cannot constitute “proof”. UFOs simply have not been fully explained. No single explanation has been able to explain the full range of the evidence. I believe UFOs to be caused by a range of phenomena, rather than a single phenomenon.
Q. Why is the "aliens" conclusion any more reasonable in your mind than Jesus, the BVM, angels, fairies, unicorns, vampires, or the Flying Spaghetti Monster himself?
A. The examples you use aren't what we're discussing, but for the sake of good faith in participation, given the assumed context of each of your examples, the ETH is plausible. Space flight is a proven fact and intelligent life elsewhere in the universe is an near statistical certainty.
It is a matter of
evidence. We simply don’t have the same amount or level of evidence for the (mythological) things you mention than we have for UFOs. If we did have that level of evidence, then reports of the (mythological) things you mention would be just as persistent and prevalent as UFO reports – yet they are demonstrably not.
Quote: "you're confused about what Occam's Razor means."
Response: You presume incorrectly.
Ah yes, Occam's Razor. The following is drawn from “What is Occam's Razor?” (
http://www.physics.adelaide.edu.au/~dkoks/Faq/General/occam.html):
"
Entities should not be multiplied unnecessarily" or "
when you have two competing theories that make exactly the same predictions, the simpler one is the better. "
Forms stronger than Occam intended include:
"
If you have two theories that both explain the observed facts, then you should use the simplest until more evidence comes along" or "
The simplest explanation for some phenomenon is more likely to be accurate than more complicated explanations" or "
If you have two equally likely solutions to a problem, choose the simplest" or "
The explanation requiring the fewest assumptions is most likely to be correct. "
So what are we supposed to be applying Occam’s razor to?
” This principle goes back at least as far as Aristotle, who wrote "
Nature operates in the shortest way possible." Aristotle went too far in believing that experiment and observation were unnecessary. The principle of simplicity works as a heuristic rule of thumb, but some people quote it as if it were an axiom of physics, which it is not. It can work well in philosophy or particle physics, but less often so in cosmology or psychology, where things usually turn out to be more complicated than you ever expected. Perhaps a quote from Shakespeare would be more appropriate than Occam's razor: "
There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, than are dreamt of in your philosophy." (
http://www.physics.adelaide.edu.au/~dkoks/Faq/General/occam.html)
Quote: "There have been enough of these sightings over the last 60 years or so to indicate there's some kind of cultural influence at play."
Response: Agreed. It is part of what makes ufology so interesting.
Indeed, cultural influence inevitable colours our perceptions of the world. Our perceptions of the world around us is largely a learned skill. Culture drives consensus realities – hence also scientific consensus. The influence of culture cannot be neglected.
Quote: "They can neither prove or disprove that somebody became confused, hallucinated, or just made it up, and that is a far more likely scenario than ET, which is equally impossible to prove or disprove."
Response: This thread isn't about "proving" or "disproving". It's about considering the information and determining what is reasonable to believe.
First, the evidence shows that:
“
For example, the USAF's Project Blue Book concluded that less than 2 % of reported UFOs were "psychological" or hoaxes; Allen Hendry's study for CUFOS had less than 1 %” (
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unidentified_flying_object)
Blue Book’s Dr Hynek (The Hynek UFO Report) has “Hoax” at 0.9% and “Psychological” at 0.5% (p. 259).
If you would like to discuss hoaxes, in one study spanning about 5 years and taking into account 1,593 of the best cases, 1.66% of the cases were found to be hoaxes. I suspect there are probably a lot more now due to the ease of faking video and putting it up on the Internet.
Second, what is the likelihood of ET visiting earth? It is an complete unknown. Therefore you cannot say ET visitation is more or less likely than anything - except perhaps something that has been definitively proved – and in the case under discussion, hoaxes, etc have been shown to play a relatively insignificant role (1-2%), so if we are talking likelihoods,
they are not
likely at all.
Quote: "To me, it looks like all these kinds of tall tales—UFOs, religious sightings, ghost sightings, cryptid sightings, etc—all fit the PSH better than any of the specialized hypotheses forwarded by researchers in all those discrete fields."
Response: The comment "tall-tales", implies lies, fabrications and such. I'm not talking about those, so the PSH, whatever it is doesn't apply anyway. If you would like to discuss hoaxes, in one study spanning about 5 years and taking into account 1,593 of the best cases, 1.66% of the cases were found to be hoaxes. I suspect there are probably a lot more now due to the ease of faking video and putting it up on the Internet.
“Tall tales”? They are anecdotes.
“The expression anecdotal evidence refers to the use of particular instances or concrete examples to support a general claim. Such information (sometimes referred to pejoratively as "hearsay") may be compelling but does not, in itself, provide proof.” (
http://grammar.about.com/od/ab/g/anecdoteterm.htm)
”Despite its limitations, anecdotal evidence is important in some areas of research, such as case study research, where the emphasis might be on learning as much as you can about a specific situation and you have to depend on a person's own experience for information/data. Even in areas where anecdotal evidence is not considered valid or reliable for the type of study that you want to conduct, it can strongly suggest lines of research.” (
http://www.uow.edu.au/student/attributes/statlit/modules/module1/anecdotal.html)
The difference between UFO anecdotes and anecdotes relating to the (mythological) things you mention is the level of evidence we have in support of UFO anecdotes that we simply don’t have for those other (mythological) things. Specifically the multiple eyewitness, radar, film and photographic and physical trace evidence.
Moreover:
“The argument has been made that weight of five pieces of weak data cannot be turned into a whole of strong data. That mistates the practice and point. 'Weight of Evidence' is somewhat of a misnomer; more accurately it's the fit of evidence that is key rather than its weight. It is how pieces of evidence fit together, complement one another, create a picture larger than themselves that is the determinant, rather than the weight.” (
http://www.toxicologysource.com/law/daubert/judgingthejudges/weightofevidence.html)
Quote: Note there weren't any "flying saucer" reports prior to the late 1940s. If they're really extraterrestrial craft, then why had they gone undetected for so long, until the popular media began promoting the stories so heavily?
Response: There were a few reports of strange flying objects during World War Two, at the time called foo fighters which contrary to common reports, were not limited strictly to spheres. However before World War Two, it is true that reports are sparse and relegated to myth. However that is no reason to suspect the phenomenon isn't real. It is entirely possible that they just weren't coming here that often ( or at all ) until the 1940s. Simply because we haven't travelled to another inhabited planet yet and shown them we exist doesn't mean that we don't exist until they say we do.
Historical reports do exist. For example:
” On July 3, 1893 several fishermen were awakened in the middle of the night by the presence of a strange craft that they described as an "electric monster." Their watches stopped and the craft/monster emitted electricity and light. The craft also made a loud sound. Two men were knocked unconscious in the encounter. The rest of the party fled in terror. They returned and found their two unconscious friends who were revived. Apparently the two men suffered no permanent injuries. This is the first known documented encounter with a UFO in the Pacific Northwest. You may download a copy of the actual article as it appeared in the Tacoma Daily Ledger Newspaper by clicking here (
http://www.ufosnw.com/documents/electricmonst/electricmonstnew.pdf) (PDF 930K). (
http://www.ufosnw.com/history.htm)
Critically, it must also be noted that the “mass media” did not really get going until the 1950s – and that I believe played a big role in the ability of UFO sightings to not only become documented, but also to reach public consciousness.
Also:
It is well documented that the films and and media reports about flying saucers and space aliens were inspired by the sightings, not the other way around.