Is there an upside to global warming?

[macdoc]

TS - OOPS
You are correct - body of the article was talking F while the graphic is in C..

http://www.globalwarmingisreal.com/...imate-change-is-going-to-be-twice-as-extreme/

•••

Mitigation for me means moving off BAU.

No way in hell for reversal.

 

[Trakar]

TS - OOPS
You are correct - body of the article was talking F while the graphic is in C..

http://www.globalwarmingisreal.com/...imate-change-is-going-to-be-twice-as-extreme/

•••

Mitigation for me means moving off BAU.

No way in hell for reversal.

Mostly agreed, I just see us being moved off BAU more by Mother Nature, than by free will decisions and actions. Reversals may or may not someday become possible (part of becoming a true level one Civilization) I just think we aren't going to get there in time to save the current civilization structure. May provide great and real stimulus for off-world exploration and exploitation, however, so if we are looking for a silver lining to AGW, I might settle on that.

 

[macdoc]

That depends a bit on "moved off".

To a degree China is already forced into that situation and India is soon to follow.

If you mass depopulation ala

How bad could it be...

Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, the director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, said
http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/03/13/scientist-warming-could-cut-population-to-1-billion/

Then I disagree in the near term - say 40 years.

Beyond that BAU with population peak and water scarcity gets pretty dire.

Even California is to some degree being "forced".

You anticipate a climate driven dark ages??.....can't see a tech oasis like say Japan ever in those straits.
Japan is over the population hump and becomes more and more sustainable all the time.

A big time virulent disease might create the conditions.

 

[CapelDodger]

The pattern is a little more complicated than cold/hot east/west. It now seems fairly certain that ‘warm’ PDO phase amplifies the strength of El Nino and attenuates La Nina (and obviously the ‘cool’ phase does the opposite). If nothing else that will have some effect on long term averages.

Hang on, I'm the one who does "conclusions". You're "fairly certain" from such paltry evidence is more than equivalent. Correlation is not causation. The PDO may merely be a side-effect of whatever drives ENSO and cycles that do muscle their way in demanding an explanation. Eddy currents in the main flow.

It's hard to explain the ‘77 regime change without it.

It's a heroic task to explain it with it. What about the confounding factors of Clean Air legislation and AGW? The 70's energy crisis?

True, but our arsenal of sensors grows all the time now. In the last 20 years we’ve probably learned more about the way our climate works than in all of human history before.

The most silvery lining is the way attention (and funding) has been brought to our great oceans, which are more mysterious to us than some of Jupiter's frickin' moons. The upside of the "more research is needed" policy is that it had to stump up for some actual research. Aussies have been doing sterling service in that regard.

 

[CapelDodger]

He's not doomed. Neither am I. We are both sufficiently old that what is about to happen will see us in our graves.

Me too. I'm kicking back and watching it unfold.

 

[macdoc]

In my carbon neutral powered house...me too....kicking back in the hot tub no less.

 

[DogB]

Hang on, I'm the one who does "conclusions". You're "fairly certain" from such paltry evidence is more than equivalent. Correlation is not causation.

There’s lots of papers supporting the proposition but I’m basing my sureness on something I read from the Indian monsoon prediction service. Never bet against an Indian weatherman, you’ll do you dough every time.

The PDO may merely be a side-effect of whatever drives ENSO and cycles that do muscle their way in demanding an explanation.

Sure, that’s possible. Either way the effect seems real enough.

Eddy currents in the main flow.

Does he?

It's a heroic task to explain it with it.

Are you claiming otherwise? This might well be the first time in our debates that you’re the one going against the scientific consensus. Good for you!

What about the confounding factors of Clean Air legislation and AGW?

Various countries cleaned up their acts at various times - the UK did much of their work in the late 50’s; China and India are just getting started.

The 70's energy crisis?

There was a real drop in oil consumption in the right period but coal and gas usage continued to increase unabated over the same period. The graph of total emissions shows a very slight dip for 5 or 6 years then the acceleration continues as before.

The most silvery lining is the way attention (and funding) has been brought to our great oceans, which are more mysterious to us than some of Jupiter's frickin' moons.

Amen to that brother.

The upside of the "more research is needed" policy is that it had to stump up for some actual research.

Pure research is never wasted money.

Aussies have been doing sterling service in that regard.

Aussies are a little odd in that we do hardly any private sector R&D yet we have a very well funded government scientific organisation. Means we do some ‘pure’ research but the lion’s share goes into protecting and increasing our primary industries. We’d be doing a lot less work on the oceans if fish weren’t so tasty.

 

[DogB]

In my carbon neutral powered house...me too....kicking back in the hot tub no less.

How do you generate power?

I'm currently investigating options - at the moment I'm very interested in a solar system that will actually stick some power back into the grid (mainly so that if my next car is a plug in electric I'll have some spare generation capacity).

 

[macdoc]

There was a real drop in oil consumption in the right period but coal and gas usage continued to increase unabated over the same period. The graph of total emissions shows a very slight dip for 5 or 6 years then the acceleration continues as before.

I think you miss the very significant S02 situation.

S02 offset warming until the major cleanup - S02 reduces solar radiation incoming....as we see easily with volcanoes.

So total emissions is misleading as any indicator as it depends on the nature of those emissions.

I'd been bugging Gavin about what impact China and India were having both with S02 and aerosols.

Those super carriers chugging back and forth across the Pacific are burning high sulphur bunker fuel and pumping out the equivalent of two Pinatubos a year.

Some 80% gets washed out but 20% does reach the stratosphere.

Solar radiation reaching the ground in some parts of China is down as much as 25% due to aerosols.

The SE Asian brown cloud no doubt has an impact but it perhaps is as mcuh a negative forcing as a positive one.

CO2 is always and cumulatively positive and sticks around.

S02 is generally negative and thick aerosols somewhat negative until they hit the cryosphere and then they go positive.

methane......urk....all those bubbles are bad bad news...25 x the impact of C02 but short lived.
Downside?? there is multiples of the current carbon load of the atmosphere that could be released....

PDO in my view has local affect and a big effect on biological eco systems.

In climate change tho - it's just shoving heat markers around.

 

[macdoc]

How do you generate power?

I'm currently investigating options - at the moment I'm very interested in a solar system that will actually stick some power back into the grid (mainly so that if my next car is a plug in electric I'll have some spare generation capacity).

I don't - I pay a small premium to source from Bullfrog power.

Once in the grid electrons are electrons - the extra funding flows to them for more wind towers.

Ontario is committed to upping the percentage of green sourced.

http://www.bullfrogpower.com/

It's a small contribution but gets favourable comments from clients - biz and home are combined and we suck power due to the computers and I like my conveniences.

I support off grid and a few clients are there already up in the boonies but I'd rather pool resources for a wind farm ala Bullfrog approach..
Even Walmart has bought in and it is becoming the "thing to do" for many businesses and municipalities.

I also support retrofitting big time -but again at the ROI level for multiple dwellings and towers where 40% reduction in energy use has a payback on the 4-5 years range.
GE and Siemens have significant businesses in this and will boom once carbon taxes become a reality.

Frankly Ontario with 40% hydro and 30% nuclear is pretty green anyway but relaxing in the hot tub I can know I"m not leaving a 100k year legacy for my soaking.

I use as much electrical -= lawn mower, etc and will move to EV when practical without my having to create my own green source.

I have a gas furnace but A/c is electrical and the heat from the Macs keeps the house toasty 90% of the time without the furnace.

Do what i can without breaking the bank.
Pragmatic.

Just pissed the province hasn't built another nuke to lose the last remaining coal plant - it's ot on very often but the damn thing is the largest single C02 source in North America...

Time to end that. It is due to be closed in 2014 - it was supposed to be closed already.

I use LED lights and the kids love this campaign with the suggestive stickers beside every light.

http://www.flickoff.org/goflickyourself?page=3

So what I save in being a bit prudent offsets the extra cost of the Bullfrog Power.

I've saved about half the typical Canadian carbon footprint and given I work from home it's a pretty green program with not a lot of cost.

I have one client in the green industry that runs a 15,000 sq ft light industrial operation and office on about $500 of power a month....

They are reallllllly good. The purpose built the building and use geo-thermal hVac

 

[Trakar]

You anticipate a climate driven dark ages??

Actually, yeah that's pretty close, not so much a total stagnation/decline, but much that effect overall. A few bright pockets, but lots of general darkness.

 

[DogB]

I think you miss the very significant S02 situation.

I didn't miss it. I ignored it.

S02 offset warming until the major cleanup

What major clean up? The Acid Rain Act? The Sulphur Emissions Reduction Protocol?

China, Malaysian, Indonesia, India – these are the countries we need to talk about if we’re going to discuss sulphur dioxide.

This graph is getting a little old now but the situation hasn’t changed for the better. Last firm figures I saw – China alone is now producing more SO₂ than the US did in 1980.

 

[DogB]

I don't - I pay a small premium to source from Bullfrog power.

OK. We have a similar system over here but I don't trust it. I think it's going to be a long time before this country generates base power in any other way than burning coal. Besides, I live in a place where air conditioning is pretty much manditory for about 6 months of the year - and I can see a time coming where personal power generation might be the only way to get cool air.

 

[Trakar]

In my carbon neutral powered house...me too....kicking back in the hot tub no less.

Well, I already sell back much more power than I use, and more than 90% of everything my family consumes, we produce, or personally know the people who do. So provided internet linkage remains available, we should be able to continue to add some commentary to the events as they unfold.

 

[macdoc]

http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/acid-rain-pollution-halved-in-15-years-621510.html

.....

What's not to "trust"?

Pooling resources to get a green source is pretty straight forward....

A/C is easier than heating and top notch insulation and clever airflow can reduce the load.

I'd do that plus purchase green rather than trying my own power system unless you have a high feed in tariff.

One key for us is the LEDs really keep the house cool.

I can light an entire works space on 6 watts.

 

[DogB]

What's not to "trust"?

Right now there's no formal designation on what is considered 'green power'. You have to remember we've just come out of an 11 year period where the government of this country didn't believe AGW was real. We're about a decade behind you on green initiatives.

Besides, this is Australia, we have a lot of sunlight. A 2kw system will pay itself off in about 3 years if I’ve done my sums correctly.

 

[macdoc]

Pretty quick but I'm assuming you are staying hooked to the grid as backup?

 

[Trakar]

Pretty quick but I'm assuming you are staying hooked to the grid as backup?

Initially, I considered the grid to be a backup in case I had problems. Now, a couple of years in, I consider the grid a revenue source. I'm seriously considering adding some additional capacity to enhance the income. I've got a couple of warm springs on the property and am considering investigation of the geothermal potential here. Even a small geothermal baseline capacity would allow me to sell a lot more of my PV generation as I wouldn't have to use so much recharging my night-time use batteries.

 

[macdoc]

Oh yeah using a geo-thermal Hvac makes all sorts of sense and since you are already hooked into the grid why bother with batteries. Just sell them the excess as an offset to the little you use.
Skip the batteries altogether

 

[Trakar]

Oh yeah using a geo-thermal Hvac makes all sorts of sense and since you are already hooked into the grid why bother with batteries. Just sell them the excess as an offset to the little you use.
Skip the batteries altogether

Current PV system needs the battery backup to cover nighttime usage. I use a lot of power, it is a functional (if small) farm/ranch with a handful of dispersed guest cottages that are rented out during the more temperate part of the year (April -November here in SW Oregon). I wasn't really thinking of a full-fledged geo-power station, just something to take over the trickle-charging of the battery system during the day, and supplementing the battery system at night. That should allow me to reduce the size of the battery system and allow me to send more of the PV overage back into the grid, generating more revenue.