Is Mittens now unstoppable?

Oops...

Romney's big day marred by Etch A Sketch remark
CNN said:
Eric Fehrnstrom, Romney's senior campaign adviser, was asked in a CNN interview Wednesday morning whether the former Massachusetts governor had been forced to adopt conservative positions in the rugged race that could hurt his standing with moderates in November's general election. "I think you hit a reset button for the fall campaign. Everything changes," Fehrnstrom responded. "It's almost like an Etch A Sketch. You can kind of shake it up, and we start all over again."
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Santorum responds.

Gingrich responds.
 
Etch A Sketch responds too:

Happy to see Etch A Sketch, an American classic toy, is DRAWING attention with political candidates as a cultural icon and important piece of our society. A profound toy, highly recognized and loved by all, is now SHAKING up the national debate. Nothing is as quintessentially American as Etch A Sketch and a good old fashion political debate.

We are pleased with the added attention being drawn to Etch A Sketch which is truly one of the most recognizable, iconic and fun toys ever developed. As one of the most classic toys of all time, Etch A Sketch has always sold particularly well with today's consumer. It is too early to tell, but we are hopeful to see if there is an uptake in sales given this recent exposure.

The Ohio Art Company has been in the toy business for more than 100 years and Etch A Sketch for over five decades. Our company values bringing smiles to kids faces and providing hours of fun playtime for young kids.
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I feel like I should thank Fehrnstrom for so clearly articulating an argument I have been trying to make for months.

Once the primaries are over, and the Santorum/Gingrich/Perry/Bachmann supporters have been stirred up by their nonsense. Romney will turn the "moderate" label from a curse to a compliment- using it to chase the Independent voters. Memories are short- tag lines last.
 
It was a bit "inside baseball"; but I think it's all a bit overblown. Of course the nature of the debate is going to change once he's out of the republican primary and fighting on natiaonal turf agains Obama. The necessary contrasts are going to be substantively different.

Still, it's a good cudgel for the "Romeny is out of touch/phony" narrative.
 
TubbaBlubba said:
I seriously had a nightmare tonight. The subject was that Santorum had got the nomination.
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In a way I wouldn't mind. To see what it would do to the popular vote. Then we'd know: Is such social conservatism the will of the people? Or not?

I don't think the Etch-a-Sketch thing will hurt Romney. Everyone knows the game. I find it kind of reassuring.
 
Primaries in which Santorum could likely pick up all or most delegates are:

Louisiana 46 delegates
Missouri 52
Pennsylvania (as native son) 72
North Carolina 55
Indiana 46
West Virginia 31
Nebraska 35
Kentucky 45
Texas 155
South Dakota 28
Montana 26
New Mexico 23

Total 614 + Santorum's existing 246 = 860 delegates, compared to Romney's probable 1039. Of course, to reach the required 1144, Romney will have an easier time getting 105 delegates than Santorum will getting 284. Of course, Romney could take Pennsylvania, giving him 1111 delegates going into the convention, in which case he'll only need 33 more, which Ron Paul could throw his way. Paul could also win Texas as a native son.

Even with all these considerations, it looks like Mittens could be unstoppable.
 
Below are the delegate counts from before and after the Louisiana primary:

Romney 560 --> 565
Santorum 246 --> 256
Gingrich 141 -- > 141
Paul 66 --> 66

Louisiana's primary is proportional, and it seems that not all the 46 delegates were up for grabs. Therefore Santorum only made a modest gain on Romney, gaining ten delegates to Romney's five.

The next three primaries, all on April 3, are winner-take-all, and Mittens is likely to win ll of them:

Wisconsin 42 delegates
Maryland 37
Washington D.C. 19
Total 98 delegates

So, after April 3, the delegate count should be:

Romney 663
Santorum 256
Gingrich 141
Paul 66
 
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TimCallahan said:
Below are the delegate counts from before and after the Louisiana primary:

Romney 560 --> 565
Santorum 246 --> 256
Gingrich 141 -- > 141
Paul 66 --> 66

Louisiana's primary is proportional, and it seems that not all the 46 delegates were up for grabs. Therefore Santorum only made a modest gain on Romney, gaining ten delegates to Romney's five.
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Tim. My thanks to you for posting the numbers. It's appreciated. :)
 
Although the next set of primaries, which should favor Mittens, aren't until April 3, I checked the polls to see how the candidates are doing. Here are the results:

Romney 37.1%
Santorum 29.0
Gingrich 14.6
Paul 11.9
undecided 7.4

It would seem as though Mittens is now heading down the home stretch. The question is: Will he have the nomination sown up by the time of the convention, or will there be a floor fight?
 
Of course the elephant in the room is how many votes will the spoilers draw.

.......................................
Buddy Roemer left the Republican party and wants to be president.

Roseanna Barr (yes, that Roseanne Barr) is seeking the nomination of the Green Party.

Robert Burck (aka The Naked Cowboy (a NYC street performer)) has filed paperwork to run as a Tea Party candidate.

Terry Jones (Dove World Outreach Center in Gainesville, Fl) thinks he should be president. You may remember this bozo as the guy who wanted to burn Korans.
 
Ladewig said:
Of course the elephant in the room is how many votes will the spoilers draw.

.......................................
Buddy Roemer left the Republican party and wants to be president.

Roseanna Barr (yes, that Roseanne Barr) is seeking the nomination of the Green Party.

Robert Burck (aka The Naked Cowboy (a NYC street performer)) has filed paperwork to run as a Tea Party candidate.

Terry Jones (Dove World Outreach Center in Gainesville, Fl) thinks he should be president. You may remember this bozo as the guy who wanted to burn Korans.
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I'm sorry to hear the naked cowboy is a teabagger. Does he intend to campaign in his undershorts? However, I doubt he will draw many votes, ditto for the others. Now, if Santorum ran as a teabagger, that would suck some serious votes out of the GOP.

The GOP at present reminds me of its 1964 incarnation, only in reverse. Then, the far right held sway, and the moderate to conservative establishment was shoved to one side. I suspect the establishment power behind Mittens will find the teabaggers and others on the far right a thorn in its side. Either the etch-a-sketch remark and Romney's avowal of a moderate policy will alienate a significant chunk of the GOP, or Mittens will be forced to accede to a far more conservative platform than he presently supports to hold on to them. The latter should alienate the majority of American voters.
 
To be consistent with my rhetoric.

RandFan said:
I don't buy this "true conservative crap". I don't think anyone can even define it.
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If someone will define what they think of as conservative then it is fair to discuss that definition.
 
As the April 3 primaries in Wisconsin (42 delegates), Maryland (37) and Washington D.C. (19) approach, and Romney seems poised to pick up a total of 98 delegates, he is also rising steadily, if slowly, in the polls, while the others are declining slightly.

Last Week --> Now
Romney 37.1% --> 37.8%
Santorum 29.0 --> 28.2
Gingrich 14.6 --> 14.3
Paul 11.9 --> 11.8
undecided 7.4 --> 7.9
 
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It appears that Mittens has taken the Maryland and Washington, D.C. primaries, and is on his way to win the Wisconsin primary. Hence, the delegate count is now:

Romney 663
Santorum 256
Gingrich 140
Paul 67

The rest of the April primaries are as follows:

April 21

Missouri 52 delegates Non-Binding Caucus

April 24

New York 95 delegates - Proportional Primary
Pennsylvania 72 - Direct Election
Connecticut 28 - Hybrid Primary
Rhode Island 19 - Proportional Primary
Delaware 17 - Winner Take All Primary

Since Missouri is a non-binding caucus, it's of less importance than the others. I suspect Santorum may be able to blunt Mitt's gains by taking some of the New York delegates , and perhaps, as a native son, all of Pennsylvania's.

In May, Santorum should be able to gain a bit on Mittens. On May 8, Indiana and wet Virginia may give him 77 delegates, while on May 15 he could win a few in Oregon. On May 22 he could pick up most of Kentucky's 45 delegates and most of Arkansas' 36. On May 29, assuming it doesn't support Ron Paul as a native son, Texas could give most of its 155 delegates to Santorum

Indiana May 8 -- 46 delegates - - - - Hybrid Primary/Caucus1
West Virginia May 8 31 - - - - Direct Election
Nebraska May 15 -- 35 delegates - - - - Non-Binding Primary
Oregon May 15 28 - - - - Proportional Primary
Kentucky May 22 45 - - - - Proportional Primary
Arkansas May 22 36 - - - - Proportional Primary
Texas May 29 155 - - - - Proportional Primary

All of this means that Romney will maintain his substantial lead, but probably won't hit the magic number in May. That leaves June. On June 5, in winner-take-all primaries, California (172 delegates) and New Jersey (50 delegates) should give Mittens 222 delegates. Added to the 663 delegates he already has, these would give him 885. Added to those he will have already picked up in New York, he may well have the magic number by the time of the convention.
 
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Yeah, Mittens is now a lock for the nomination.
Now the question becomes can he move back to the center enough to get the moderate vote without alienating the right wing of the party.
The VEEP choice will be interesting. He has to throw a bone to the right wing of the party, but not scare aware the moderate voters.He cannot afford a Sarah Palin scenario.
 
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