Is Mittens now unstoppable?

Mittens still has to hit the floor with enough committed delegates, either of his own or his and RP's, to clinch it, if he is to avoid a floor fight. (I can always hope, can't I, before the last bomb drops.)

The Newtmare is damaged goods and he knows it, but he would have something to gain by throwing his delegates to Santorum at the final show-down.

I can't see any of the other crazies going for anyone but Santorum or Newt.
 
In the wake of Santorum winning the Kansas primary, I went to the polls again to check the delegate count. It now stands as follows:

Romney 455
Santorum 199
Gingrich 117
Paul 64

On March 13 primaries will be held in Alabama, Mississippi,Hawaii and American Samoa. If Alabama and Mississippi go for Newt; and Hawaii and Samoa go to Romney, that means 90 delegates for Newt and 29 for Mittens:

Romney 484
Gingrich 207
Santorum 199
Paul 64

On March 17 Missouri is also likely to add its 52 delegates to Newt; while on March 18 Puerto Rico will likely give its 23 votes to Mittens:

Romney 507
Gingrich 259
Santorum 199
Paul 64

If Illinois gives its 69 delegates to Mittens on March 20, and Louisiana gives its 46 delegates to Newt on March 24, then by the end of March, the delegates would read:

Romney 576
Gingrich 305
Santorum 199
Paul 64
 
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Betting odds

Mitt Romney 1/15
Rick Santorum 10/1
Newt Gingrich 20/1
Ron Paul 40/1
 
Tomorrow, March 13, primaries will be held in the following states and territories:

Alabama 50 delegates
Mississippi 40 del.
Hawaii 20 del.
American Samoa 9 del.

If Mittens wins Hawaii and Samoa, Newt wins Alabama and Mississippi, the delegate count will be:

Romney 484
Gingrich 207
Santorum 199
Paul 64

It should be interesting to see if this holds true or if this prediction will be upset by an unexpected penetration of Santorum into the south.
 
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Following Santorum (not Newt) winning in Alabama and Mississippi last night, I took another look at the polls. The delegate count is now:

Romney 496
Santorum 236
Gingrich 141
Paul 67

Upcoming primaries in March are:

Missouri 3/17 52 delegates
Puerto Rico 3/18 23 del.
Illinois 3/20 69 del.
Louisiana 3/24 46 del.

Assuming Santorum continues to win in the south, and Romney wins elsewhere, the delegate count at the end of March could be:

Romney 588
Santorum 334
Gingrich 141
Paul 67

One wonders if Newt will drop out of the race. Were he to throw his support behind Santorum at the end of March, the delegate count would be:

Romney 588
Santorum 475
Paul 67

On the other hand, if Newt's monumental ego could be salved by the v.p. position on the ticket, and he sopports Romney, the end of March delegate count could be:

Romney 729
Santorum 334
Paul 67

This would put Mittens well on the way to securing the nomination before the convention.
 
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At present, the delegate count is:

Romney 496
Santorum 236
Gingrich 141
Paul 67

The Missouri primary is today, March 17. It could give Santorum 52 more delegates, making the standings:

Romney 496
Santorum 288
Gingrich 141
Paul 67

However, particularly given Santorum's "learn English" message to the Puerto Ricans, tomorrow's primary there should give Romney 23 delegates:

Romney 519
Santorum 288
Gingrich 141
Paul 67

On the 20th. Illinois could deliver 69 delegates to Romney:

Romney 588
Santorum 288
Gingrich 141
Paul 67

On the 24th. Louisiana could deliver its 46 delegates to Santorum. Thus, by the end of March the delegate count could be:

Romney 588
Santorum 334
Gingrich 141
Paul 67

If, at this point, both Gingrich and Paul were to throw in the towel and hand their delegates to Santorum (don't count on it), Romney would still be in the lead:

Romney 519
Santorum 496

In the unlikely event of Gingrich and Paul giving up their bids just to top Romney, the nomination could still be a toss-up. Were Romney to offer Santorum the number two position (no santorum pun intended, but it's fun anyway) in an effort to placate the GOP's right wing, we might see a really weird Republican ticket, one that would even rival McCain / Palin.
 
BenBurch said:
Remember that a brokered convention can produce a none-of-the-above candidate - one who might actually stand a chance of winning.
Click to expand...

Who would be a stronger Republican candidate than Romney?
 
Montag451 said:
I agree that the open primaries are silly, but the GOP are also guilty of the same tactic. Remember faux news urging people to vote Hillary Clinton in the democratic primaries in 08? What gies around comes around
Click to expand...

I think Rush was promoting that idea, "Operation Chaos", not Fox News.
 
TimCallahan said:
I would think that Gingrich would be a better choice for Romney to pick as veep. However, the man is rather odious. I wonder if Santorum would consider taking the #2 spot, or if that would seem like a sell-out to his supporters.
Click to expand...

A Rand Paul VP pick by Romney would make sense over Gingrich or Santorum. Rand Paul has credibility with the Tea Party, conservatives, constitutionalists and libertarians. Romney might need the Ron Paul delegates to win the nomination. He would certainly need Ron Paul’s supporters.

Also Rand Paul’s wife and Mrs. Romney are very close.
This time the future First Lady may pick the next Vice President!
 
Puppycow said:
Gingrich and Santorum would be terrible picks for VP, IMO.

Rand Paul would be the best way to ensure that the Ron Paul supporters vote for Romney in November and would also be a strong reason for Ron Paul not to make a third-party run, which would probably doom Romney in November.

Even if he doesn't go for Rand Paul, I don't think he will pick either Gingrich or Santorum. He might go for Christie or Rubio.
Click to expand...

If he goes for Christie or Rubio, that means Romney has caved to the Republican Establishment.
 
Well, Santorum won in Missouri. However, the votes are non-binding on the delegates. So, he may not have won anything. Romney won in Puerto Rico, but the polls still show the delegate count as:

Romney 496
Santorum 236
Gingrich 141
Paul 66

On the 20th. Illinois could deliver 69 delegates to Romney:

Romney 565
Santorum 288
Gingrich 141
Paul 66

On the 24th. Louisiana could deliver its 46 delegates to Santorum. Thus, by the end of March the delegate count could be:

Romney 565
Santorum 334
Gingrich 141
Paul 66

ETA: In April there are primaries in a number of northeastern states, all of which will probably go to Romney:

Wisconsin 42 delegates
Washington DC 19
New York 95
Pennsylvania 72
Connecticut 28
Rhode Island 19
Total: 275

If Mittens gets all of these, he will have 565 + 275 = 840 delegates by the end of April
 
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It's from 2008, when Romney was "the true conservative alternative" to John "The Democrats Favorite Republican" McCain.

Romney has changed little from 2008 (aside from building up his campaign), what appears to have changed is Rick Santorum now wants the job for himself.
 
TimCallahan said:
Well, Santorum won in Missouri. However, the votes are non-binding on the delegates. So, he may not have won anything. Romney won in Puerto Rico, but the polls still show the delegate count as:

Romney 496
Santorum 236
Gingrich 141
Paul 66

... (snip) ...
Click to expand...

Correction. Today, the updated delegate count, including the 20 delegates Romney won in Puerto Rico, is:

Romney 516
Santorum 236
Gingrich 141
Paul 66

To win the nomination Mittens needs 628 more delegates to reach the magic number of 1144. Santorum needs 908.
 
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