Is Mittens now unstoppable?

Well, Romney is looking much more inevitable now. Santorum's poll numbers are dropping. About the only think that could threaten Romney now, I think, is if Newt or Paul were to drop out so that Santorum gets some of the other not-Romney votes. But it seems both of those guys have committed to staying in the race no matter what.
 
TimCallahan said:
The Super Tuesday states and delegate numbers are as follows:

Alaska 27
Georgia 76
Idaho 32
Massachusetts 41
North Dakota 28
Ohio 66
Oklahoma 43
Tennessee 58
Vermont 17
Virginia 49

Total delegates 437

Mittens probably has a lock on Massachusetts, vermont and Virginia, for 107 assured delegates. I could see Gingrich taking Georgia and Tennessee for 134 delegates. However, places like Alaska, Idaho, North Dakota and Oklahoma could give their combined 130 delegates to Santorum. That leaves Ohio, with its 66 delegates as the big and, as yet, uncommitted prize. If this is the case, the delegates would be apportioned as follows:

Romney gains 107 delegates
Gingrich gains 134 delegates
Santorum gains 130 delegates
Ohio (?) 66 delegates

Some commentators are saying that Super Tuesday may not wrap things up, and that the struggle for enough delegates to win the election may go right up ti the convention.
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None of the Super Tuesday primaries are winner take all. Ohio, Vermont and Virginia award delegates to the winner of each congressional district. The other states award delegates proportionally.

Romney might take all of Virginia's delegates because Santorum and Gingrich didn't qualify for the ballot in that state. The delegate math in the other states will be more complicated.
 
BenBurch said:
Notice how nobody posts here for 24 hours when Rush calls a young woman a whore and Breitbart dies?

Mittens can't even command attention over a blowhard and a blogger.
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The oddsmakers have changed their opinions;

Bet $7 on M. Romney and win $1
Bet $7 on R. Santorum and win $49.

That is quite a spread.

I do understand that anything could happen between now and Super Tuesday. A gamechanger could be revealed, but as Damon Runyon once said, “The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, but that's the way to bet.”
 
Following Romney's win in the Washington primary, I looked again at the polls. The standings are now as follows:

Romney 36.7%
Santorum 27.3
Gingrich 15.3
Paul 9.7
undecided 11.0

I wonder if, like Perry, Cain and Gingrich before him, Santorum has peaked. Well, we will know, more or less after Tuesday if it's still an open race or if Mittens has it in the bag.
 
Tuesday should be the end of the road for Newt Gingrich, even if he wins Georgia.
He may stay in anyway, but all he's really doing is spoiling it for Santorum if he does.

I suspect Paul will stay in. He seems to help Romney by attacking Santorum. There's speculation that Rand Paul is on the short list for VP.
 
BenBurch said:
Notice how nobody posts here for 24 hours when Rush calls a young woman a whore and Breitbart dies?

Mittens can't even command attention over a blowhard and a blogger.
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This op-ed piece that Romney wrote in 2009 about healthcare is causing a small stir, and might help(?) him with a news cycle or two.
 
I looked at the polls again today. Romney's lead has increased. Santorum has lost some ground. Gingrich is unchanged, and Paul has gained a bit. The standings yesterday and today are as follows:

Romney 36.7% -- 38.7%
Santorum 27.3 -- 26.0
Gingrich 15.3 -- 15.3
Paul 9.7 -- 11.7
undecided 11.0 -- 8.3

Were Gingrich to throw his support behind Santorum, and if Paul supported Romney the standings would be:

Romney 50.4
Santorum 41.3
undecided 8.3

Assuming the delegate count would continue to have some relationship to the polls. Romney would be the nominee. However, conservative support for hm would continue to be luke-warm at best.
 
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TimCallahan said:
The Super Tuesday states and delegate numbers are as follows:

Alaska 27
Georgia 76
Idaho 32
Massachusetts 41
North Dakota 28
Ohio 66
Oklahoma 43
Tennessee 58
Vermont 17
Virginia 49

Total delegates 437
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How do they figure delegates?

Ohio has about 11.5 million people, Oklahoma less than 4 M. One would think Ohio would have almost 3 times as many as Oklahoma.
 
Spindrift said:
How do they figure delegates?

Ohio has about 11.5 million people, Oklahoma less than 4 M. One would think Ohio would have almost 3 times as many as Oklahoma.
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I have no idea how they do this. New York has 95 delegates to Oklahoma's 43. Yet, New York state has nearly 19 million people, or nearly five times as many people as Oklahoma.
 
Spindrift said:
How do they figure delegates?

Ohio has about 11.5 million people, Oklahoma less than 4 M. One would think Ohio would have almost 3 times as many as Oklahoma.
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It's a bloody complicated system that favors small states and states where Republicans win.

Each state is allocated:

5 delegates for each US Senator
3 delegates for each US Representative
3 delegate seats for party leaders (State party chair, national committeeman and national committeewoman)

States are also awarded bonus delegates for:
The GOP holding the governors office.
Each GOP Senator in office.
Each house of the state legislature controlled by the GOP.
Having a majority of the states representatives in the US House.

If the GOP won the state during the last Presidential election, the state is awarded (4.5 + (.60 * (Electoral college votes))) extra delegates.

Oklahoma picked up all of these bonus delegates, Ohio did not.
 
TimCallahan said:
I have no idea how they do this. New York has 95 delegates to Oklahoma's 43. Yet, New York state has nearly 19 million people, or nearly five times as many people as Oklahoma.
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I wonder if the national GOP doesn't apportion them based on the size of membership in the state GOPs?

ETA: I just read Kestrel's post. Nevermind.
 
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Kestrel said:
It's a bloody complicated system that favors small states and states where Republicans win.

Each state is allocated:

5 delegates for each US Senator
3 delegates for each US Representative
3 delegate seats for party leaders (State party chair, national committeeman and national committeewoman)

States are also awarded bonus delegates for:
The GOP holding the governors office.
Each GOP Senator in office.
Each house of the state legislature controlled by the GOP.
Having a majority of the states representatives in the US House.

If the GOP won the state during the last Presidential election, the state is awarded (4.5 + (.60 * (Electoral college votes))) extra delegates.

Oklahoma picked up all of these bonus delegates, Ohio did not.
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Okay that kind of makes sense. You'd want the states where you are strong to have more influence.

I would assume that the Dems do something similar.
 
Kestrel said:
It's a bloody complicated system that favors small states and states where Republicans win.

Each state is allocated:

5 delegates for each US Senator
3 delegates for each US Representative
3 delegate seats for party leaders (State party chair, national committeeman and national committeewoman)

States are also awarded bonus delegates for:
The GOP holding the governors office.
Each GOP Senator in office.
Each house of the state legislature controlled by the GOP.
Having a majority of the states representatives in the US House.

If the GOP won the state during the last Presidential election, the state is awarded (4.5 + (.60 * (Electoral college votes))) extra delegates.

Oklahoma picked up all of these bonus delegates, Ohio did not.
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That is indeed complicated. Were it based on population alone, then consider that California, with about 37.5 million people has 172 delegates, while it would, based on population, have nearly 10 times as many delegates as Oklahoma. Since 430 delegates from one state might be a bit cumbersome, then, based on population, California could have 172 delegates to New York's 95, with Oklahoma having only 18.

It would seem to me that this way of allocating delegates also skews things in favor of the Tea Party well out of proportion to its actual numbers.
 
Puppycow said:
Tuesday should be the end of the road for Newt Gingrich, even if he wins Georgia.
He may stay in anyway, but all he's really doing is spoiling it for Santorum if he does.

I suspect Paul will stay in. He seems to help Romney by attacking Santorum. There's speculation that Rand Paul is on the short list for VP.
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I would think that Gingrich would be a better choice for Romney to pick as veep. However, the man is rather odious. I wonder if Santorum would consider taking the #2 spot, or if that would seem like a sell-out to his supporters.
 
Spindrift said:
Okay that kind of makes sense. You'd want the states where you are strong to have more influence.

I would assume that the Dems do something similar.
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The Democratic party system is based on the total votes for the Democratic candidate in the state over the last three elections and the electoral collage votes allocated to the state. The Democratic party gives bonus delegates to states that hold their caucus or primary later in the year. The gory details can be found here.

Democratic Senators, Governors, Members of Congress, state party chairs, DNC representatives, Presidents, ex Presidents and a few others are automatically given a delegate seat.

As with the Republican system the Democrats do award more delegates to states where Democrats have been winning. They also favor smaller states, but probably not as much as the GOP.
 
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TimCallahan said:
I would think that Gingrich would be a better choice for Romney to pick as veep. However, the man is rather odious. I wonder if Santorum would consider taking the #2 spot, or if that would seem like a sell-out to his supporters.
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Gingrich and Santorum would be terrible picks for VP, IMO.

Rand Paul would be the best way to ensure that the Ron Paul supporters vote for Romney in November and would also be a strong reason for Ron Paul not to make a third-party run, which would probably doom Romney in November.

Even if he doesn't go for Rand Paul, I don't think he will pick either Gingrich or Santorum. He might go for Christie or Rubio.
 
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