Is Mittens now unstoppable?

I took another look at the polls this morning to see if Santorum's three recent wins had changed anything significantly. They certainly have. He now leads Gingrich:

Romney 30.6%
Santorum 23.8
Gingrich 20.6
Paul 14.0
undecided 11.0
 
TimCallahan said:
I took another look at the polls this morning to see if Santorum's three recent wins had changed anything significantly. They certainly have. He now leads Gingrich:

Romney 30.6%
Santorum 23.8
Gingrich 20.6
Paul 14.0
undecided 11.0
Click to expand...

Now its this:

Romney 30.6%
Santorum 24.8
Gingrich 20.2
Paul 13.6
undecided 10.8

The question is: Will Santorum manage to keep up his rise in the polls, or will he fall by the wayside, like Perry and Cain?
 
I took another look at the polls. Santorum is still climbing. Here are the standings, first from 2/11, then 2/12, then 2/13:

Romney 30.6% -- 30.6% -- 30.5%
Santorum 23.8 -- 24.8 -- 27.3
Gingrich 20.6 -- 20.2 -- 20.5
Paul 14.0 -- 13.6 -- 11.8
undecided 11.0 -- 10.8 -- 9.9

So, Paul is declining, Gingrich and Romney are holding steady, and Santorum is rising significantly. I find this very strange. I would have written Santorum off a week or so ago and would have assumed that Gingrich would have absorbed his supporters. Of course, Newt's marital infidelity is probably a sticking point for many religious conservatives.
 
TimCallahan said:
I took another look at the polls. Santorum is still climbing. Here are the standings, first from 2/11, then 2/12, then 2/13:

Romney 30.6% -- 30.6% -- 30.5%
Santorum 23.8 -- 24.8 -- 27.3
Gingrich 20.6 -- 20.2 -- 20.5
Paul 14.0 -- 13.6 -- 11.8
undecided 11.0 -- 10.8 -- 9.9

So, Paul is declining, Gingrich and Romney are holding steady, and Santorum is rising significantly. I find this very strange. I would have written Santorum off a week or so ago and would have assumed that Gingrich would have absorbed his supporters. Of course, Newt's marital infidelity is probably a sticking point for many religious conservatives.
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Holy crap! I just looked back at them and saw this new posting. Santorum is actually leading in the polls:

Santorum 30.3 %
Romney 29.0
Gingrich 18.0
Paul 12.0
undecided 10.7

Of course, Mittens still has an impressive lead in delegates:

Romney 98
Santorum 44
Gingrich 32
Paul 20
 
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TubbaBlubba said:
For Obama's sake I hope Santorum is not just the NotRomney of the week.
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If Romney ends up as nominee, most of the polls still give Obama the victory. Only USA Today/Gallup and CBS News/NY Times have them tied:

Rasmussen Reports 2/10 - 2/12 1500 LV 48 42 Obama +6
Pew Research 2/8 - 2/12 1172 RV 52 44 Obama +8
FOX News 2/6 - 2/9 1110 RV 47 42 Obama +5
Reuters/Ipsos 2/2 - 2/6 881 RV 48 42 Obama +6
ABC News/Wash Post 2/1 - 2/4 879 RV 51 45 Obama +6
USA Today/Gallup 1/27 - 1/28 907 RV 48 48 Tie
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 1/22 - 1/24 RV 49 43 Obama +6
PPP (D) 1/13 - 1/16 700 RV 49 44 Obama +5
CBS News/NY Times 1/12 - 1/16 1021 RV 45 45 Tie
 
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TubbaBlubba said:
For Obama's sake I hope Santorum is not just the NotRomney of the week.
Click to expand...
For humanity's sake, I hope one of the two major parties in the last remaining superpower does not nominate the likes of Santorum...


... or Paul, or Gingrich, or for that matter... Romney... Damn... But Romney to a much lesser extent than the rest of them.

Daredelvis
 
Well, in answer to the question I posed as the title to this thread, "No, Mittens is not unstoppable." Looking once more today at the polls, I see that Newt is continuing to fade and that Romney is falling further behind Santorum (though still with more delegates):

Santorum 33.7%
Romney 28.3
Gingrich 14.8
Paul 11.8
undecided 11.4
 
TimCallahan said:
Well, in answer to the question I posed as the title to this thread, "No, Mittens is not unstoppable." Looking once more today at the polls, I see that Newt is continuing to fade and that Romney is falling further behind Santorum (though still with more delegates):

Santorum 33.7%
Romney 28.3
Gingrich 14.8
Paul 11.8
undecided 11.4
Click to expand...

The bookies are holding steady at 1 to 4 and 4 to 1 for Romney and Santorum
 
daredelvis said:
For humanity's sake, I hope one of the two major parties in the last remaining superpower does not nominate the likes of Santorum...


... or Paul, or Gingrich, or for that matter... Romney... Damn... But Romney to a much lesser extent than the rest of them.

Daredelvis
Click to expand...
Why? How is Romney any better then the rest of them?
 
TimCallahan said:
Well, in answer to the question I posed as the title to this thread, "No, Mittens is not unstoppable." Looking once more today at the polls, I see that Newt is continuing to fade and that Romney is falling further behind Santorum (though still with more delegates):

Santorum 33.7%
Romney 28.3
Gingrich 14.8
Paul 11.8
undecided 11.4
Click to expand...

Today the ratings are:

Santorum 34.2% -- up by 0.5%
Romney 27.8 -- down by 0.5%
Gingrich 14.7 -- down by 0.1%
Paul 12.3 -- up by 0.5%
undecided 11.0

The Arizona and Michigan primaries are coming up on February 28. Mittens is the predicted winner in both of those populous states; but Santorum could surprise him.
 
TimCallahan said:
Today the ratings are:

Santorum 34.2% -- up by 0.5%
Romney 27.8 -- down by 0.5%
Gingrich 14.7 -- down by 0.1%
Paul 12.3 -- up by 0.5%
undecided 11.0

The Arizona and Michigan primaries are coming up on February 28. Mittens is the predicted winner in both of those populous states; but Santorum could surprise him.
Click to expand...

Michigan has gone hard right. Santorum has an edge there I think.
 
TimCallahan said:
The Arizona and Michigan primaries are coming up on February 28. Mittens is the predicted winner in both of those populous states; but Santorum could surprise him.
Click to expand...

I do not think that that prediction gives proper consideration to the numbers of utter whack jobs in Arizona or the number of people involved in the automobile industry in Michigan. Santorum has a natural appeal to the former and Mittens has strong negatives among the latter.
 
leftysergeant said:
I do not think that that prediction gives proper consideration to the numbers of utter whack jobs in Arizona or the number of people involved in the automobile industry in Michigan. Santorum has a natural appeal to the former and Mittens has strong negatives among the latter.
Click to expand...

Well, if that's the case, Santorum could take the lead in delegates on the 28th. Between them, Arizona and Michigan have 59 delegates. At present the delegate count is :

Romney 98
Santorum 44
Gingrich 32
Paul 20

If Santorum wins both Michigan and Arizona, picking up 59 delegates, the count is:

Santorum 103
Romney 98
Gingrich 32
Paul 20
 
Peephole said:
Why? How is Romney any better then the rest of them?
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His tax/budget proposal is a lot less nutty than the others. It would still reduce taxes on the wealthy, but it would do it to a much lesser extent.

(And Newt's is just flat out insane! It would cut federal revenues by $1.3 trillion in a single year! And he's calling for a balanced budget. He'd have to reduce federal spending by $2.5 trillion--again this is in one year--to achieve that.)
 
The bookmakers are closing the gap as well. It was 1 to 4 and 4 to 1, but now it is 1 to 3 and 3 to 1.

A lot can happen in 10 days. I would be afraid to make a bet right now.
 
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