Is ESP More Probable Than Advanced Alien Life?

Funny…what we have here are scientifically credible results…on a science board. For some reason no one has the guts to face the facts. Do let me know when you arrive at such a destination.

How simple would it be…if you were really interested in understanding the facts…if you were really interested in challenging the validity of the data… to just read the blog and send the guy your questions. He is, after all, a theoretical physicist. He's the one who did all the studies. He's no more than a 'click' away. I’m sure there isn’t anything that he couldn’t answer.

Or are you actually that worried that you won’t be able to deal with the answers?

I can only conclude that you’re simply not interested. And if you’re not interested, then neither am I.

Bye.
As I indicated, I am interested in you showing where in the article the guy showed the data for the referenced experiments to be valid.
Why would you not want to show this?
You were able to quote passages from that article before, surely a quick copy/paste of the relevant bits should be a piece of cake for you?
 
Most folks I know would insist that love is a fact of life. How was it they came to that conclusion do you suppose? Must have been 1,000,001 anecdotes.

Love is not just a feeling. Love is expressed in actions, which can be observed.
 
That is gibberish.
It is only gibberish if you don't understand probabilities. If something is absolutely proven true beyond all doubt, It has a probability of 1. We are life, and we built a civilization. We exist. The probability of at least 1 civilised life form in the universe is 1.

The probability is 0 if it is absurd and irrational and can't possibly be calculated to be probable at all. ESP is absurd and irrational and can't possibly be calculated. The probability of ESP is 0.

Scientific probability calculations are for everything in between 1 and 0. For the OP question to have any meaning at all, there needs to be some rational hypothesis or evidence to make ESP beyond some absurd fantasy. Then the probability can be calculated as somewhere between 1 and 0. The probability of another civilized life form evolving on another planet becomes 1/x. While 1/x is unknown, it is always larger than 0. QED

So all you need is that evidence or a rational hypothesis. Then your prior can be non zero for ESP as well. Then you can at least have an honest debate.

It is not honest to use Bayesian calculus to assign a non zero probability to absurdities. At least not in science. Maybe you could in calculating feelings of love for spouses or other such fuzzy nonsense. But in science it is REQUIRED to first have a rational hypothesis or some evidence.

See before we had evidence, Einstein speculated that black holes might exist. It was calculated because mathematically a certain amount of mass would collapse in on itself and bend space enough that even light couldn't escape. Not observed, but he made a rational hypothesis. Other unknown things like dark energy are the opposite. There we have an observation, but no rational hypothesis. Both those can use Bayesian calculus. ESP though has neither. It has a probability of 0 until such a time as there is the previously stated evidence or rational hypothesis.

Now a couple people in this thread came close. They asserted there was evidence. They even provided links to other people claiming there was evidence. Yet still, as of yet, no evidence has been provided. Therefore there is no reason to assign a non-zero prior.
 
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That post, sure, and others.

Yes, the word "prior" put into it would have improved the precision of what's being discussed.


It only makes sense to call a probability a "prior" probability if you plan to do Bayesian updating on it, and hence obtain a posterior probability. In the grue problem, there was no mention that I was ever going to get any data to update my probability, so it didn't make any sense to call it a "prior"; I just called it what it was: a probability.

The difference is easily understood once you understand BT: all prior probabilities must sum to 1 -- which is what his 0.5/0.5 does. The consequent probability, however, can never be either 1 or 0 -- something which some posters are having difficulty understanding.


I'm not sure what term in Bayes' Theorem,

png.latex

you mean by "consequent probability": P(D|H), what I would call the likelihood, or P(H|D), what I would call the posterior. Both can be 0 or 1. I hope I haven't said otherwise; if I did, I misspoke.

P(D|H) = 1 if the data D are certain under hypothesis H. An example pertinent to this thread: Let D be the observation that there are planets (other than Earth) with conditions under which life could evolve, and let H be the hypothesis that alien life exists. Then D is necessary under H: P(D|H) = 1.

P(H|D) can also be either 0 or 1, but I'm getting called to dinner. It'll have to wait.
 
As I indicated, I am interested in you showing where in the article the guy showed the data for the referenced experiments to be valid.
Why would you not want to show this?
You were able to quote passages from that article before, surely a quick copy/paste of the relevant bits should be a piece of cake for you?

He won't, and couldn't even if he wanted to.

The ganzfeld experiments were shown to have a higher than baseline success rate. This much is true, and very few people dispute it.

The ganzfeld experiments were also shown to be poorly designed, badly controlled, and all-around sloppy. They also lack any way to actually detect psychic phenomena in and of themselves.

What the ganzfeld experiments actually showed was just that a group of "receivers" had a slightly elevated success rate at choosing the right picture out of a group of (usually) four, and that is all. In no way did they establish the presence of psychic phenomena - and even allowing that their results are valid at all is a stretch, considering the very common and very simple complaints voiced against their methodology.

So, at best, what he can show is that there's something happening. It might be psychic, it might not; he has no way to show it either way, and so the experiment is not evidence for psychic phenomena.

But he'll continue to shout "you can't prove it wasn't!" until we all get bored and leave.
 
As I indicated, I am interested in you showing where in the article the guy showed the data for the referenced experiments to be valid.
Why would you not want to show this?
You were able to quote passages from that article before, surely a quick copy/paste of the relevant bits should be a piece of cake for you?


If the credibility of the data is of such excruciating interest to you…WHY DON’T YOU JUST EMAIL THE GUY WHO WROTE IT????

I didn’t write the blog, I didn’t do the experiments, I didn’t collect the data, I didn't do the analysis. Why, if you’re SO interested in the validity of it all…do you want to waste your time with me? Why not talk to the author?

….unless you really couldn’t care less. In which case, neither do I.
 
If the credibility of the data is of such excruciating interest to you…WHY DON’T YOU JUST EMAIL THE GUY WHO WROTE IT????

I didn’t write the blog, I didn’t do the experiments, I didn’t collect the data, I didn't do the analysis. Why, if you’re SO interested in the validity of it all…do you want to waste your time with me? Why not talk to the author?

….unless you really couldn’t care less. In which case, neither do I.

Provide the evidence for your own claims.
 
It only makes sense to call a probability a "prior" probability if you plan to do Bayesian updating on it, and hence obtain a posterior probability. In the grue problem, there was no mention that I was ever going to get any data to update my probability, so it didn't make any sense to call it a "prior"; I just called it what it was: a probability.
Gotcha. My misunderstanding.



I'm not sure what term in Bayes' Theorem,

[qimg]http://latex.codecogs.com/png.latex?P(H|D)=\frac{P(D|H)P(H)}{P(D)}\text{,}[/qimg]​

you mean by "consequent probability": P(D|H), what I would call the likelihood, or P(H|D), what I would call the posterior. Both can be 0 or 1. I hope I haven't said otherwise; if I did, I misspoke.

P(D|H) = 1 if the data D are certain under hypothesis H. An example pertinent to this thread: Let D be the observation that there are planets (other than Earth) with conditions under which life could evolve, and let H be the hypothesis that alien life exists. Then D is necessary under H: P(D|H) = 1.

P(H|D) can also be either 0 or 1, but I'm getting called to dinner. It'll have to wait.
I think that I mean the posterior probability, though I'll re-look up the part where I recently read that and verify.
 
…once again you are insisting that I have claimed that subjective experience is objectively falsifiable.

And once again, you are posting dishonestly.

You said:
...There is vast amounts of anecdotal evidence that supports the ESP position...

To which I replied:
One of these things is not like the other.
...taking the position that anecdotes are not "evidence".

You replied:
...So when someone says “I love you’ we may all justifiably dismiss the claim because they cannot support it with any variety of objectively falsifiable evidence...
...which, in my opinion, appears to be a gratuitous argumentum ad igitur, implying that it was I who had made the claim who would dismiss a subjective experience of my own "because cannot support it with any objectively falsifiable evidence...", when it was, in fact, you.

If you now say that is not what you meant, I will accept that,but I would encourage the choice of clarity in the future.

NOTE TO SLOWVEHICLE: I do not now, nor have I ever, claimed that subjective experience can be objectively falsified or that it constitutes objectively falsifiable evidence.

NOTE TO annnnoid: it was certainly not I who mace that claim--if you did not intend to emphasize it, why bother to pretend to attribute it to me? You really ought to keep your straw persons on a shorter leash.

Quite the opposite…and that is the whole point. We rely on anecdotes, aka: self report, to express what is within us to whatever audience we may have. Your continued insistence that what is within you is irrelevant to anyone else is pure nonsense!

Your continued pretense that the highlighted bit correctly represents, or even resembles, my position, or correctly parses my posts about my position, is pure dishonesty.

Your highlighted claim is your own unique contribution, and cannot in any honest way be said to reflect my position, nor be exegeted out of what I have, in fact, said.

Read again.

I have claimed, and do claim, that my subjective experiences shape my own beleifs. I do not pretend that my beliefs constitute "objectively falsifiable evidence" (see the quote of your words, above).

Your pale pink immature herring of an implication that I even mentioned, at any point, the relevance of my subjective experience (or, for that matter, my belief) to anyone else is simply dishonest; it neither reflects what I have, in fact, posted, nor speaks to any issue I have raised.

Your anecdotes matter! They matter to you, and they matter to those around you. Pretending that they don’t is just stupid.

My personal experiences matter to me. My partner's personal experiences matter to my partner. If my partner tells me that my partner loves me, I accept that at face value as one of my own experiences.

I would not be so base as to expect (much less insist) that my partner "prove" that my partner loves me; I find the very idea unhealthy in the extreme.

I have less than no concern over whether you, or anyone else, finds my subjective experience of love for my partner, and my partner's subjective experience of love for me, something you may "justifiably dismiss" (your words) for lack of "objectively falsifiable evidence" (your words). Your own subjective opinion about the issue is utterly without effect upon me, or upon my partner, or upon anything other than your own beliefs.

<snip of equally poorly-framed arguments directed at others>
 
As I said…most skeptics I know simply aren’t interested in discovering the facts. They’re just interested in mud-slinging. Take Nonpareil for example, endless claims and not a shred of substantiation. Just look at all those colossal claims…and not a single link.<snip of much incivility>

I must have missed where you posted to the
...vast amounts of anecdotal evidence that supports the ESP position.
.

Your game of "Google it yourself" is transparently tiresome. You have made a claim; take up your onus and show what you, personally, find convincing. Don't pretend that someone else has done your heavy lifting for you.
 
Now a couple people in this thread came close. They asserted there was evidence. They even provided links to other people claiming there was evidence. Yet still, as of yet, no evidence has been provided. Therefore there is no reason to assign a non-zero prior.


Sorry, this is nonsense. We have experimental evidence and we have anecdotal evidence. The only question is, is it valid evidence, and how robust is it?

Science does not have the capacity to rule definitively either way. Many here simply refuse to acknowledge this fact.

Quite obviously, we acknowledge self-report as evidence of a great deal of what transpires within our subjective experience….simply because we have no scientific means of definitively adjudicating neural activity (despite what many idiots frequently assert).

I could (and have on previous threads) presented an all-but endless list of human characteristics that only exist phenomenally because they have been established to anecdotally.

Love (for example) only exists as a fact because of anecdotal evidence.

There is obviously not just a precedent, but a vast precedent for acknowledging the evidentiary nature of self-report (there are about a half-million practicing psychoanalysts whose livelihood is founded upon it). Just as obviously, there are constraints to any conclusions that can be generated.

Anyone who has taken any time to study the issue of ESP knows…without a shadow of a doubt…that the issues are complex in the extreme. That there are so many here who insist on such a simplistic and juvenile depiction of the issue (‘just show me someone who can read my mind and I’ll believe you’) demonstrates quite clearly how little interest they actually have in understanding any of it.

And once….(snip)


Whatever…the point of it all, is that anecdotes matter. You know they matter, and I know they matter. They matter because they influence opinions / conclusions / feelings / thoughts. That which influences in such a manner is called evidence. The anecdotal representation of yourself that you present to your wife will fundamentally inform her understanding of you…as it will the understanding of everyone around you. It is ‘evidence’ of you. Other people rely upon your anecdotal representation of yourself to be credible, valid, authentic, and reliable.

…and we ‘all’ make every attempt possible to live up to that expectation.

Thus…in our personal lives…anecdotal evidence is fundamental to our existence.

To suddenly suggest that, as soon as this same evidence enters the scientific arena it becomes questionable is inconsistent and illogical. It may lack features that enable it to be successfully adjudicated within a scientific epistemology, but that is because of the limitations of science, not because of the limitations of the evidence.

Thus…if someone claims to have experienced some variety of anomalous psychological phenomena, they deserve the same respect and acknowledgement as if they had come to any other fundamentally relevant conclusion (this is obviously a generalization)….especially given that science has absolutely no way to even begin to establish what did, or did not, actually occur…and, as of this point in time, has come nowhere close to establishing how anything at all actually does occur when it comes to the relationship between the brain and human consciousness (and yes…unlike so many of the idiots on these threads, I can actually provide links to support these conclusions).
 
Sorry, this is nonsense. We have experimental evidence and we have anecdotal evidence. The only question is, is it valid evidence, and how robust is it?

Science does not have the capacity to rule definitively either way. Many here simply refuse to acknowledge this fact.

Quite obviously, we acknowledge self-report as evidence of a great deal of what transpires within our subjective experience….simply because we have no scientific means of definitively adjudicating neural activity (despite what many idiots frequently assert).

I could (and have on previous threads) presented an all-but endless list of human characteristics that only exist phenomenally because they have been established to anecdotally.

Love (for example) only exists as a fact because of anecdotal evidence.

There is obviously not just a precedent, but a vast precedent for acknowledging the evidentiary nature of self-report (there are about a half-million practicing psychoanalysts whose livelihood is founded upon it). Just as obviously, there are constraints to any conclusions that can be generated.

Anyone who has taken any time to study the issue of ESP knows…without a shadow of a doubt…that the issues are complex in the extreme. That there are so many here who insist on such a simplistic and juvenile depiction of the issue (‘just show me someone who can read my mind and I’ll believe you’) demonstrates quite clearly how little interest they actually have in understanding any of it.




Whatever…the point of it all, is that anecdotes matter. You know they matter, and I know they matter. They matter because they influence opinions / conclusions / feelings / thoughts. That which influences in such a manner is called evidence. The anecdotal representation of yourself that you present to your wife will fundamentally inform her understanding of you…as it will the understanding of everyone around you. It is ‘evidence’ of you. Other people rely upon your anecdotal representation of yourself to be credible, valid, authentic, and reliable.

…and we ‘all’ make every attempt possible to live up to that expectation.

Thus…in our personal lives…anecdotal evidence is fundamental to our existence.

To suddenly suggest that, as soon as this same evidence enters the scientific arena it becomes questionable is inconsistent and illogical. It may lack features that enable it to be successfully adjudicated within a scientific epistemology, but that is because of the limitations of science, not because of the limitations of the evidence.

Thus…if someone claims to have experienced some variety of anomalous psychological phenomena, they deserve the same respect and acknowledgement as if they had come to any other fundamentally relevant conclusion (this is obviously a generalization)….especially given that science has absolutely no way to even begin to establish what did, or did not, actually occur…and, as of this point in time, has come nowhere close to establishing how anything at all actually does occur when it comes to the relationship between the brain and human consciousness (and yes…unlike so many of the idiots on these threads, I can actually provide links to support these conclusions).

Science can't prove love so ESP is real?

Actually providing the links would be ever so much more helpful than claiming you can provide the links.
 
Thus…in our personal lives…anecdotal evidence is fundamental to our existence.

To suddenly suggest that, as soon as this same evidence enters the scientific arena it becomes questionable is inconsistent and illogical.
Again, you're smuggling in an assumption like this:

evidential support for the existence of love is anecdotal
evidential support for the existence of ESP is anecdotal

Therefore the evidence for the existence of ESP is as sound as the evidence for the existence of love.

The problem with that (apart from its being logically absurd) is that people gain knowledge of love through introspection - it is a state of mind - and report its existence to others, and act upon it in predictable ways, that can be observed by other persons, and so on. But reports gained by introspection about ESP are not so common, and the predictions derived from them not regularly fulfilled.

People may dream of lucky lottery numbers, and may even bet on them and win, but such events seem to be no more than random chance occurrences.
 

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