Any particular reason you're not reading up on the ones without "high-pressure tactics and glossy brochures"?
Too many people are writing about the high-pressure ones. Maybe they are the minority? If so, Amway still has a horrible PR problem on their hands.
And what's the "failure" rate, using your definitions?
Most people who sign up as IBOs don't make any money, and some lose some money. Less than 50% make money. (And of that, only a smaller percentage make a LOT of money.)
That's a fairly high failure rate. Though, it does
sound nicer, when you put it in the context of "they decided it wasn't for them".
How many people who think about starting a McDonald's franchise actually run profitable franchises?
I don't have the numbers, but McDonalds failures are very rare, apparently.
And, the corporation
will scrutinize you, before they let you sign the forms. YOU must PROVE to THEM that you have handled businesses properly in the past, have a good credit rating, and don't need even to borrow money to start a franchise. (Actually, you are allowed to borrow some money, but I think a large portion must come from your own funds, and not be borrowed.)
They don't just let anyone in after a half-hour sales seminar.
According to 53+ years experience with tens of millions of IBOs around the world, how much of "success" in Amway is determined by "innate marketing talent"?
I only brought this up, because you claimed "intuitive" is really "what you are used to".
My counter-claim is that your definition is almost useless. A more effective definition would be: "That which you would
not normally need to get used to."
In other words: Something that appeals to the innate (or "instinctual") aspects of the minds of normally developed humans.
Your question is irrelevant to that point. But, since you asked:
Amway's success is probably largely due to their IBOs banking on people NOT noticing all of the warts of the deal, before it's too late.
The IBOs could very well be appealing to people's innate desires and such. But, to the point of being
exploitive. They might not be properly conveying the more complex, non-trivial, and non-intuitive aspects of the business to their perspective partners. And, that isn't very fair.
A decade old though I note, so has possibly missed most of the research in success.
Since it has been published, no research has refuted any of its important points.
In fact, he expands on many of those ideas in part of his latest book, "The Better Angels of Our Nature", based on the more recent research.
But, of course, one should
argue the arguments he makes. And, NOT on the fact that he is Steven Freakin' Pinker, or anything like that. Pretend it was written by a driveling religious lunatic, if you wish. Doesn't matter, as long as you focus on responding to the
arguments he happens to make.
Primarily because quite a few people insist on ignoring what I write and ignoring the evidence I post or link to in support.
It took
all this time for someone to even write about any merits Amway could stand on, on its own. (assuming such things exist)
If Amway wasn't non-intuitive, you could have banged out something like my summary in less than an hour,
two years ago!
What do you see suspicious about it?
If I came up to you and said: "How would you like to join this company, where the success rate approaches nearly 100%", then you look up the actual data and see it is more like 20%, how would you react?
(NOTE: I am using 20% as a generic example. Amway's success rate might be different. The point is the
discrepancy that exists, not the actual number.)
There's nothing "blatantly fallacious" about argument from authority. It's a perfectly legitimate approach for inductive reasoning.
If Amway's merits stood on their own, you wouldn't need to resort to it. "Legit usage" or not.
I'd note you cited Steven Pinker earlier. Should I pull you up for it?
Well, it's only a matter of historic detail that Steven Pinker happened to be the one to write the book. If it was written by someone else, with the same arguments and evidence, it wouldn't matter. Even if that person was known to be a raving religious lunatic, barking out of an insane asylum, for example.
Not even the credentials should matter.
I hope that when you read the book, you can respond to the
quality of the arguments and evidence he is citing. And, that you can ignore the fact that it just happened to be written by.... some particular person... whatever his name was....