Is a Double Dip Recession Likely?

Is a double dip recession likely?

  • Yes

    Votes: 37 60.7%
  • No

    Votes: 24 39.3%

  • Total voters
    61
I do enjoy the notion that providing funds to create jobs for currently unemployed citizens is a redistribution of wealth to the rich. Baffling.

As much as I want everyone to be employed, it isn't a taxpayer obligation. If you believe otherwise, then you should probably live in a communist country, because the US Constitution isn't for you. Creating taxpayer sponsored busy-work isn't creating wealth, or growing the economy. If you want an economy that's closer to full employment, then lets abolish the Fed, which is the cause of asset inflation and speculative bubbles. The bust phase of the fiat-money fractional reserve banking system is the cause of the unemployment. If you were a physician, what you're advocating would be based on a complete misdiagnosis, with a prescription for cyanide.

You're conflating TARP with the stimulus. The stimulus money didn't go to the bankers, it went to all kinds of projects:

You used the term "bailout". Do you equate "stimulus" with "bailout"?

Because the states weren't supported, however, stimulus spending was counteracted by cuts at the state level. Thus, instead of a stimulus, it amounted to shifting money around.

So, not only should the Federal Government and the Federal Reserve borrow more, and print more money to bail out bankers and insurance companies, it should provide states that have completely mismanaged their budgets with even more funding. That's truly astounding, that you believe this is a good thing.

Yes, austerity rarely (if ever) means suffering for the people calling for austerity.

Indeed. Do you support a default on US government obligations, in the event they become unservicable?

This is beneath you. Either deal with his actual views, or ignore him, aimless slander is childish.

Krugman's economic kool-aid is beneath me. I replied to one of his blog postings and debunked his lies point-by-point on another thread. And yes, Krugman is a liar, because he's smart enough to know what his economic proposals mean, and who benefits. I only wish I could ignore hacks like him, if only economists like him weren't ruining our country.

1) Our credit rating is fine, which is why the long-term bond rates are so low. People are literally falling over themselves to lend money to us.

Do you realize that the Fed is secretly monetizing US government debt hand over fist, thereby suppressing (manipulating) interest rates? People are falling over themselves to lend us money? What are you smoking? Someone forgot to tell China, our largest creditor. The only reason global demand for US Treasuries has spiked recently, is due to the abysmal state of the alternatives! This situation will end sooner rather than later.

2) Find a single economic indicator that shows we have a debt problem. No inflation, low long-term rates, enthusiastic creditors. You're screaming "FIRE!" in the middle of Noah's Flood.

You're an ostrich with your head in the sand. We have the mother of all asset inflation in the US Treasury bubble, in the midst of a global meltdown in sovereign debt, of which the US will be the last house-of-cards standing. Mark my words.

3) The solution to our problem is to borrow money now at exceedingly low rates, use that money to stimulate the economy, and once the economy is stabilized and running on all cylinders, deal with the deficit/debt.

Color me surprised at your "solution". Please, since we can borrow and print our way to prosperity, with absolutely no negative consequences, why should we ever stop? No really. Why should we worry about the debt at all, ever? I'd love to hear your rationale, and please, no more Krugman links, I want to hear what you think.

I don't mind arguing with you, but I included detailed links that dealt with every issue you've raised. Obviously you don't have to agree with them, but instead of just reiterating an argument I've already considered, please read the link and reply to the argument therein. Otherwise nothing ever progresses.

You've already admitted you're basically a layman, and most of your contributions have been regurgitating Krugman blog posts. Yet you're wrong about virtually every aspect of the current financial crisis, from how and why it started, to how to fix the mess. You concede nothing, and pretend that everything will be ok as long as we simply do more of what has caused this disaster.

Obviously borrowing forever is a terrible idea. No one is suggesting that.

Why is borrowing forever a terrible idea? Please elaborate.

But short term interest rates aren't spiking, they're at the zero bound and would be negative without intervention, nor do they show any signs of so doing. Deal with the problems in front of us, not chimeras of paranoid imagination.

I suppose time will tell whether I'm paranoid, or you're ignorant. I've got a lot of money where my mouth is, and I sincerely hope that you aren't betting on Krugman. If so, you're going to get hurt badly, like millions of other Americans and people around the world.
 
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As much as I want everyone to be employed, it isn't a taxpayer obligation. If you believe otherwise, then you should probably live in a communist country, because the US Constitution isn't for you. Creating taxpayer sponsored busy-work isn't creating wealth, or growing the economy. If you want an economy that's closer to full employment, then lets abolish the Fed, which is the cause of asset inflation and speculative bubbles. The bust phase of the fiat-money fractional reserve banking system is the cause of the unemployment. If you were a physician, what you're advocating would be based on a complete misdiagnosis, with a prescription for cyanide.

From the fed charter:

The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and the Federal Open Market Committee shall maintain long run growth of the monetary and credit aggregates commensurate with the economy's long run potential to increase production, so as to promote effectively the goals of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/section2a.htm

I don't think the fed is doing enough on that score, but it's clearly a founding obligation.

As for the taxpayers, "obligation" is just distraction. We weren't "obligated" to do health care reform or provide social security or fight wars or anything, really. It's a matter of what policy is best.

In this case, stimulating the economy and creating employment opportunities is better for the people and our finances.

So, not only should the Federal Government and the Federal Reserve borrow more, and print more money to bail out bankers and insurance companies, it should provide states that have completely mismanaged their budgets with even more funding. That's truly astounding, that you believe this is a good thing.

Who gets punished when you take this moralistic stance towards the economy? I only care who's fault it is in so far as correcting the problems is the focus. If we wag our fingers at the states and chastize them for being irresponsible, it just means lots of teachers lose their jobs and cities fall apart.

Not to mention that (setting aside California) many of the states are having crushing budget problems because of factors beyond their control. They made financial commitments based on the quality of the economy before the collapse. It's not Kansas' fault that Wall Street speculators and gigantic banks were irresponsibly leveraging against risky financial instruments. But after the economy collapsed, their revenue bottomed out. It would have been wise to bailout that debt, allow them to reorganize their budgets from a secure position, and move forward. We just left them hanging, a terrible choice. The stimulus was cut off at the knees because of this decision.

Krugman's economic kool-aid is beneath me. I replied to one of his blog postings and debunked his lies point-by-point on another thread. And yes, Krugman is a liar, because he's smart enough to know what his economic proposals mean, and who benefits. I only wish I could ignore hacks like him, if only economists like him weren't ruining our country.

I don't know if Krugman farted on your dinner plate, or what, but your irrational hatred of the man is comically misguided. Krugman is arguing for increased stimulus precisely to help out the people that are suffering now and will suffer more with the imposition of austerity measures.

He opposed the blank-check style bailouts of the financial industry, was arguing that people notice the housing bubble years before it burst, and has been BY FAR the strongest progressive voice on economics over the last 20 years. You'e simply upset that his multiple decades of economic work makes him to qualified to accept your bizarre views.

Do you realize that the Fed is secretly monetizing US government debt hand over fist, thereby suppressing (manipulating) interest rates? People are falling over themselves to lend us money? What are you smoking? Someone forgot to tell China, our largest creditor. The only reason global demand for US Treasuries has spiked recently, is due to the abysmal state of the alternatives! This situation will end sooner rather than later.

I followed the links and the origin seems to be a gentleman named Chris Martenson who basically writes end-times economic porn. There's nothing substantial in his conspiratorial fear-mongering. I don't understand why you would whine about Krugman, a peer-reviewed, Nobel prize winner, and listen to some internet conspiracy theorist. Amazing.

Additionally, the article on China describes them selling bonds because of political gamesmanship. I don't see how this reflects poorly on our economy. I suppose it's one of the inevitable "we're all doomed because China owns us" arguments, but with as much money as they've lent us, they want our economy to be strong as much as we do. It's just more paranoia.

You're an ostrich with your head in the sand. We have the mother of all asset inflation in the US Treasury bubble, in the midst of a global meltdown in sovereign debt, of which the US will be the last house-of-cards standing. Mark my words.

We'll wait and see, I guess. People have been making this claim for a couple of years now, and the indicators haven't supported them one bit.

Color me surprised at your "solution". Please, since we can borrow and print our way to prosperity, with absolutely no negative consequences, why should we ever stop? No really. Why should we worry about the debt at all, ever? I'd love to hear your rationale, and please, no more Krugman links, I want to hear what you think.

What "I" think is based on the work of people who study the economy for a living. Just like my opinion of global warming is based on the work of climate scientists, not walking outside and seeing if it's hot, I don't presume to be an expert on economic issues.

I am, however, an expert on argumentation. I can read discussions between experts in a given field and understand who is presenting the more compelling case. I then learn as much as I can from those people. Krugman is an infinitely more reliable source for economic information than me. That is why I cite his work.

If you had actually read any of the links provided you would realize that no one (save, perhaps, Dick Cheney) thinks the debt is meaningless. It's a question of how to move forward in eliminating long-term deficits and the debt. Using funds borrowed at insanely low rates to stimulate the economy in order to pay off those obligations in the future is the responsible course of action in the current economic climate.

No one suggests borrowing like that forever. This is a strawman based on a misunderstanding of the issues. I even linked you a post by an economics professor that overtly described proper action in crisis vs. secure times. You're swinging at windmills.

You've already admitted you're basically a layman, and most of your contributions have been regurgitating Krugman blog posts. Yet you're wrong about virtually every aspect of the current financial crisis, from how and why it started, to how to fix the mess. You concede nothing, and pretend that everything will be ok as long as we simply do more of what has caused this disaster.

Right, citing authority is such a terrible way to progress. You've just made unsubstantiated assertions backed by no data. The posts I'm linking include 1) expert argument and 2) the data it was based on. You ignore both and just say the same thing over and over without substantiation.

You haven't made an argument here, either, just complained.


Why is borrowing forever a terrible idea? Please elaborate.

Look, I offered you a link that explained this, and you ignored it. You will ignore what I post here and just say the same things over and over. Here's the explanation again, in full, because obviously you fear links:

Consider a $100 billion boost to government purchases or cut in taxes financed by borrowing from abroad. In a normal year, the Federal Reserve will worry about inflation, and raise interest rates somewhat to offset the inflationary impact of the fiscal boost. The multiplier will thus be something like 0.4—we will spend $100 billion on government purchases or tax cuts and gain perhaps $40 billion in extra production and associated employment out of it.

But there are costs. First, the added national debt. The national debt will not rise by the full $100 billion: Those who earn that extra $40 billion will pay taxes—perhaps $16 billion. Thus the net impact on the government debt will be that by spending an extra $100 billion we will have added some $84 billion to the national debt. That debt must then be amortized. At a 4 percent per year long-run real rate of interest on government bonds, amortizing that debt will cost Americans $3.4 billion a year.

Second, the higher tax rates needed to raise the extra $3.4 billion will also exert a cooling supply-side effect on economic activity. With higher tax rates, people will have greater incentive to spend time and energy dodging their taxes rather than doing useful work. If this effect amounts to roughly one-third of the revenue raised, then we have to add to the total cost an additional $1.1 billion shortfall from the time and energy that would have been used to produce stuff but that will instead be devoted to dodging taxes.

Third, there is another effect. The Federal Reserve’s fight against inflation, which demands an increase in interest rates, will have reduced investment. Due to the $100 billion in government purchases, perhaps $40 billion of private investment that would have been made won’t be made—it will be crowded out. As a result of the lower capital stock, some $4 billion a year of income that would have been earned won’t be. Thus the net cost of the $100 billion in government spending will be a reduction in Americans’ disposable incomes of $7.4 billion per year.

That’s an unattractive bargain. It would allow us to purchase $40 billion of extra production and income this year at the cost of a reduction in incomes of $11.9 billion—call it $12 billion—in every year in the future. That is a usurious annual real interest rate of 30 percent. No sane economist would recommend a policy with such high costs and meager benefits. Expansionary deficit-boosting fiscal policy is, or ought to be, simply a non-starter in normal times.


I suppose time will tell whether I'm paranoid, or you're ignorant. I've got a lot of money where my mouth is, and I sincerely hope that you aren't betting on Krugman. If so, you're going to get hurt badly, like millions of other Americans and people around the world.

Betting on Krugman how? Do I think we're going to get another round of stimulus? Not really. But if we don't stimulate the economy and we get another dip or a prolonged recovery, how does that reflect poorly on Krugman? He's prescribing a course of action. The only way to lose a bet on Krugman is for the government to follow that prescription and have it fail.

We're going to get hurt because people wringing their hands over the unlikely potential of inflation scare politicians into inaction or worse, austerity measures.
 
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I don't think the fed is doing enough on that score, but it's clearly a founding obligation.

The Fed is debasing our currency at an astounding rate. What do you want them to do, start dropping money from helicopters?

As for the taxpayers, "obligation" is just distraction. We weren't "obligated" to do health care reform or provide social security or fight wars or anything, really. It's a matter of what policy is best.

These "policies" are tantamount to looting, nothing more, nothing less. We survived without socialized health care in this country for over two centuries, and yet now that health care inflation and oligopolistic insurance companies are out of control, once again your "solution" is based on complete ignorance of the problem.

In this case, stimulating the economy and creating employment opportunities is better for the people and our finances.

I'm tired of politicians and bankers stealing from me, and running my life. I'm tired of thier ****** decision making when they're not stealing from me. Apparently you're a direct beneficiary of this system (at least for now), so arguing against your direct interest is probably a big waste of time.

Who gets punished when you take this moralistic stance towards the economy? I only care who's fault it is in so far as correcting the problems is the focus. If we wag our fingers at the states and chastize them for being irresponsible, it just means lots of teachers lose their jobs and cities fall apart.

It's not a moralistic stance, it's about truth and consequences. Bad and/or corrupt decision making must have consequences, or we will only get more of the same. I'm not wagging my fingers at anyone. Just get your damn hands out of my wallet. I'm here criticizing the root of the problem, the money and banking system that caused this mess.

Not to mention that (setting aside California) many of the states are having crushing budget problems because of factors beyond their control. They made financial commitments based on the quality of the economy before the collapse. It's not Kansas' fault that Wall Street speculators and gigantic banks were irresponsibly leveraging against risky financial instruments. But after the economy collapsed, their revenue bottomed out.

I agree, lets reform our money and banking system so this doesn't happen again. Nonetheless, I am aware of what is and what has been going on, and I have been fiscally responsible. I refuse to pay for the folly and corruption of others.

It would have been wise to bailout that debt, allow them to reorganize their budgets from a secure position, and move forward. We just left them hanging, a terrible choice. The stimulus was cut off at the knees because of this decision.

No one is there to bail out individuals who make poor financial choices, or the ones who were unlucky enough to still be standing after the Federal Reserve's game of real estate musical chairs. The individuals who compose the state and their employees are no exception. They aren't special. If you don't like the consequences of our money system, fix the system.

I don't know if Krugman farted on your dinner plate, or what, but your irrational hatred of the man is comically misguided. Krugman is arguing for increased stimulus precisely to help out the people that are suffering now and will suffer more with the imposition of austerity measures.

He opposed the blank-check style bailouts of the financial industry, was arguing that people notice the housing bubble years before it burst, and has been BY FAR the strongest progressive voice on economics over the last 20 years. You'e simply upset that his multiple decades of economic work makes him to qualified to accept your bizarre views.

Krugman is just a thug, an economic hit man. That you call him progressive, still shows you don't understand the essence of what he represents. Then again, you don't believe inflation is a tax either, I guess.



I am, however, an expert on argumentation. I can read discussions between experts in a given field and understand who is presenting the more compelling case. I then learn as much as I can from those people. Krugman is an infinitely more reliable source for economic information than me. That is why I cite his work.

Krugman shares your predisposed ideological views, and so you trust what he says implicitly, even though you have little idea what he's talking about.

If you had actually read any of the links provided you would realize that no one (save, perhaps, Dick Cheney) thinks the debt is meaningless. It's a question of how to move forward in eliminating long-term deficits and the debt. Using funds borrowed at insanely low rates to stimulate the economy in order to pay off those obligations in the future is the responsible course of action in the current economic climate.

It's not responsible to the people whose purchasing power is being devalued and who are being priced out of financial assets that the parasitical elite live off of.
 
The Fed is debasing our currency at an astounding rate. What do you want them to do, start dropping money from helicopters?

[...]

It's not responsible to the people whose purchasing power is being devalued and who are being priced out of financial assets that the parasitical elite live off of.

As usual, our discussion has run its course. You didn't offer an argument, an evaluation of any data I provided, or anything resembling a response to my points.

I will just point out, for the millionth time, that all your consternation about inflation is wholly misguided. There is no inflation. There's a danger of deflation. You stand in the midst of the warmest ten years on record frantically warning the citizens Barcelona that a glacier is approaching.
 
I voted yes in a localised sort of way. The nanny's nasty medicine approach adopted by the new coalition increases the chances of an economic downturn. I'm not sure the structure of our economy is well placed to take advantage if other countries are pulling out of recession and therefore I think we could trail any recovery. If others also dip then I think we are ever so screwed.
 
As usual, our discussion has run its course. You didn't offer an argument, an evaluation of any data I provided, or anything resembling a response to my points.

I did, you just fail to acknowledge the truth as it is presented to you. But I agree, we're just talking past each other at this point. The only thing left to do is watch the spectacle continue to unfold.

After watching that Ben Bernanke video, can you at least admit that yes, inflation is a tax? I'm betting no. People who quote liars typically have no problem deceiving themselves, especially if they stand to gain.

I will just point out, for the millionth time, that all your consternation about inflation is wholly misguided. There is no inflation. There's a danger of deflation. You stand in the midst of the warmest ten years on record frantically warning the citizens Barcelona that a glacier is approaching.

Actually, there is. It's in the US Treasury market right now. That bubble will burst, however, it's just a question of when. There is a great danger of already inflated assets deflating, yes. But that will be accompanied by a rise in the price of things you need, like food, and fuel. Watch and see.
 
My issue with state bailouts is that it will institutionalize unsustainable public salaries and benefits (which have barely felt the recession). Bailing out states won't create new jobs, just protect the insulated, overpaid jobs that are destroying those state budgets in the first place.

Garbagemen and teachers in 50% dropout rate districts get paid 100k/year while others have no jobs at all, believe me the public unions won't let the state governments "spread the wealth" if bailed out. Even with bailouts the created money will go to the same people receiving all the state's money presently.

Someone explain to me how putting the many into more debt to preserve the lifestyles of the lucky "government class" would be a progressive or liberal policy?
 
Someone explain to me how putting the many into more debt to preserve the lifestyles of the lucky "government class" would be a progressive or liberal policy?

Because the alternative is that the lucky government class is unemployed as well -- and your garbage fails to be picked up.
 
My issue with state bailouts is that it will institutionalize unsustainable public salaries and benefits (which have barely felt the recession). Bailing out states won't create new jobs, just protect the insulated, overpaid jobs that are destroying those state budgets in the first place.

Garbagemen and teachers in 50% dropout rate districts get paid 100k/year while others have no jobs at all, believe me the public unions won't let the state governments "spread the wealth" if bailed out. Even with bailouts the created money will go to the same people receiving all the state's money presently.

Someone explain to me how putting the many into more debt to preserve the lifestyles of the lucky "government class" would be a progressive or liberal policy?

I get paid $100k? And my district didn't lay off 25% of its teachers? So the last two years were just a bad dream?
 
I get paid $100k? And my district didn't lay off 25% of its teachers? So the last two years were just a bad dream?

http://www.projo.com/news/content/central_falls_update_02-11-10_5HHDMPV_v52.398afed.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_Falls

$72k-78k in the school district in question, now consider benefits and how many digits are we talking? And the median income is $23k in the area according to wiki. The problem with the "$100k garbageman" situation is that 3 people could be employed privately for the money needed to keep that 1 garbageman in his cushy job.

Keynesian economics has one other aspect other than just "spend like crazy if you're in a recession". People nowadays seem to think that's the whole theory, spend spend spend when there's trouble. Keynes called for cutting spending and running surpluses during boom years, that's where the money is to come from when it's time to spend spend spend. Layering debt on top of debt is not the Keynesian plan, no leaders seem to have the political will for real Keynesian economics.

Anyway, does anyone know of an instance where a debt crisis was solved by more debt? I can't personally think of any economic crises where adding to the problem was the solution. Didn't do Japan a lick of good I know, but I'm no historical scholar so if this has ever worked before someone enlighten me.
 
My issue with state bailouts is that it will institutionalize unsustainable public salaries and benefits (which have barely felt the recession). Bailing out states won't create new jobs, just protect the insulated, overpaid jobs that are destroying those state budgets in the first place.

Garbagemen and teachers in 50% dropout rate districts get paid 100k/year while others have no jobs at all, believe me the public unions won't let the state governments "spread the wealth" if bailed out. Even with bailouts the created money will go to the same people receiving all the state's money presently.

Someone explain to me how putting the many into more debt to preserve the lifestyles of the lucky "government class" would be a progressive or liberal policy?

I'll let others handle the shaky facts, but there are two ways to approach this:

1) You oppose fiscal stimulus. Then it's obviously a bad idea to bail out the states.

2) You support fiscal stimulus. Then you have to bail out the states otherwise their spending cuts negate any federal money.

Those are the two options, and we can make arguments for either. The problem is that our brilliant leaders, cowed by the deficit-mongerers, half-assed the stimulus and effectively hamstrung the program.

Following the lead of Krugman and DeLong, I think more stimulus is desperately needed, mostly in the form of some type of jobs program. One easy way to get that started is to simply pay for states to retain their employees.

The plan should be spending to save in the future. Temporarily raise the deficit to stimulate the economy and get to the belt tightening (tax increases and spending cuts) around 2015.
 
...no leaders seem to have the political will for real Keynesian economics.

This is certainly true.

Anyway, does anyone know of an instance where a debt crisis was solved by more debt? I can't personally think of any economic crises where adding to the problem was the solution. Didn't do Japan a lick of good I know, but I'm no historical scholar so if this has ever worked before someone enlighten me.

The highest deficits in American history occured during WWII. That successfully blasted the abysmal US economy out of the Great Depression.
 
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http://www.projo.com/news/content/central_falls_update_02-11-10_5HHDMPV_v52.398afed.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_Falls

$72k-78k in the school district in question, now consider benefits and how many digits are we talking? And the median income is $23k in the area according to wiki. The problem with the "$100k garbageman" situation is that 3 people could be employed privately for the money needed to keep that 1 garbageman in his cushy job.

Keynesian economics has one other aspect other than just "spend like crazy if you're in a recession". People nowadays seem to think that's the whole theory, spend spend spend when there's trouble. Keynes called for cutting spending and running surpluses during boom years, that's where the money is to come from when it's time to spend spend spend. Layering debt on top of debt is not the Keynesian plan, no leaders seem to have the political will for real Keynesian economics.

Anyway, does anyone know of an instance where a debt crisis was solved by more debt? I can't personally think of any economic crises where adding to the problem was the solution. Didn't do Japan a lick of good I know, but I'm no historical scholar so if this has ever worked before someone enlighten me.

Congrats, you found a district in RI with a bunch of old teachers that STILL don't make anywhere close to $100K. Now, if you want to tack on benefits, you would get in the $80K range, possible $90K (the top district in my area provides a $14,000 a year health plan). But that's not salary. That's salary AND benefits.

The median salary for a teacher in the United States isn't even half of what you claimed:
http://www.payscale.com/research/US/All_K-12_Teachers/Salary
 
The median salary for a teacher in the United States isn't even half of what you claimed:

I didn't claim anything about median teacher wages nationally, my point isn't that all teachers and garbagemen are making $100k. I'm saying the public sector generally is in better shape in this economy than everyone else. Note that median private wage in this district is $23k. This essay here has some charts that support my contention (I've been seeing similar stats around for some time):

http://www.paindependent.com/todays_news/detail/public-sector-jobs-seem-recession-proof

You're factually wrong that $70k plus benefits is less than $100k total:

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/ecec.nr0.htm

"Wages and salaries" comprise only 65% of public worker compensation, so yes, six figure total compensation. And summers off.

State bailouts would do nothing but maintain this status quo, burdening the taxpayer to bail out the only people not suffering overall from the recession. But I suppose that's the pattern, last time around we bailed out people who were still receiving fat bonuses while the private sector leaked jobs like a sieve. We don't need to fire all the garbagemen, we just need to pay them something closer to in-line with what private sector employees make.. Cue the public unions to not let us do that and force the states to fire people so the unfired can stay firmly on the public gravy train.

Similarly, we don't need to destroy the financial system, we just need to get them back into balance, I recommend reinstating Glass-Steagal for a start.



And TraneWreck, government policy didn't get us out of the 1930s depression. It's well established that the destruction (or seizure by hostile forces) of most of the 1st world industrial base, while mainland U.S. industrial capacity remained at full strength (or even stronger due to the war machine), is what ended our depression. The manufacturing competition was literally bombed almost out of existence leaving us with every possible economic advantage. Unless our plan involves bombing most of the factories in China with no retaliation I don't see that situation repeating.

So still waiting on an example of successfully fixing debt with other debt.
 
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And TraneWreck, government policy didn't get us out of the 1930s depression. It's well established that the destruction (or seizure by hostile forces) of most of the 1st world industrial base, while mainland U.S. industrial capacity remained at full strength (or even stronger due to the war machine), is what ended our depression. The manufacturing competition was literally bombed almost out of existence leaving us with every possible economic advantage. Unless our plan involves bombing most of the factories in China with no retaliation I don't see that situation repeating.

And how, pray tell, did we take advantage of that global opportunity? Surely it couldn't be with the massive industrial base and awesome production that was forcibly ramped up with government spending.

No, we were the exact nation struggling through the 30's, we just had less competition.

But if you want a clear example, the actual 1930's are the best. FDR was elected in 1932 and immediately began massive government spending programs. They were amazingly successful and likely would have ended the Depression, but FDR caved to political pressure in '36 and tried to balance the budget. Withdrawing that government spending led to the "double dip" referenced in the thread title.
 
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And how, pray tell, did we take advantage of that global opportunity? Surely it couldn't be with the massive industrial base and awesome production that was forcibly ramped up with government spending.

No, we were the exact nation struggling through the 30's, we just had less competition.

But if you want a clear example, the actual 1930's are the best. FDR was elected in 1932 and immediately began massive government spending programs. They were amazingly successful and likely would have ended the Depression, but FDR caved to political pressure in '36 and tried to balance the budget. Withdrawing that government spending led to the "double dip" referenced in the thread title.

Was that the reason though? You can't just "account for" millions of tons of bombs dropped on everyone but us. Most US hegemony the last century can likely be linked to us receiving that dramatic advantage in the postwar era. U.S. factories then were so ready to soak up world demand because they were churning out weaponry in unprecedented amounts. What's keeping our factories running? What are we churning out in record amounts? Malarkey? Malarkey doesn't count!
 
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Do you think it's realistic to hand bankers and politicians a monetary printing press, and then expect them not to spend during the boom years?

No. I believe Keynesian economics are simply impossible in a democracy of any kind.. No one who wants to stay popular is capable of taking the necessary steps to restrain finance during the good times. For the voters (or cronies) no times are ever good enough. We see sunshine and rainbows around the corner and we demand our politicians take us there, or else.. As a result no lasting fiscal sustainability can ever be achieved by elected politicians.

The government's plan is fairly openly "Keynesian", but IMO won't work because they've skipped the first and most important step entirely. They pick the most personally useful parts out of economic theory like it was a buffet. Similar to how many of the Jesus worshipers are so keen on passages about the gays but not so hot on giving all their possessions to the poor. It's rather central to the whole philosophy, yet it's ignored entirely.
 
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I didn't claim anything about median teacher wages nationally, my point isn't that all teachers and garbagemen are making $100k. I'm saying the public sector generally is in better shape in this economy than everyone else. Note that median private wage in this district is $23k. This essay here has some charts that support my contention (I've been seeing similar stats around for some time):

http://www.paindependent.com/todays_news/detail/public-sector-jobs-seem-recession-proof

You're factually wrong that $70k plus benefits is less than $100k total:

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/ecec.nr0.htm

"Wages and salaries" comprise only 65% of public worker compensation, so yes, six figure total compensation. And summers off.

State bailouts would do nothing but maintain this status quo, burdening the taxpayer to bail out the only people not suffering overall from the recession. But I suppose that's the pattern, last time around we bailed out people who were still receiving fat bonuses while the private sector leaked jobs like a sieve. We don't need to fire all the garbagemen, we just need to pay them something closer to in-line with what private sector employees make.. Cue the public unions to not let us do that and force the states to fire people so the unfired can stay firmly on the public gravy train.

Similarly, we don't need to destroy the financial system, we just need to get them back into balance, I recommend reinstating Glass-Steagal for a start.



And TraneWreck, government policy didn't get us out of the 1930s depression. It's well established that the destruction (or seizure by hostile forces) of most of the 1st world industrial base, while mainland U.S. industrial capacity remained at full strength (or even stronger due to the war machine), is what ended our depression. The manufacturing competition was literally bombed almost out of existence leaving us with every possible economic advantage. Unless our plan involves bombing most of the factories in China with no retaliation I don't see that situation repeating.

So still waiting on an example of successfully fixing debt with other debt.

I agree with a lot of your anti-Keynesian rant. Just don't get the idea that all these teachers are living the high life pulling in a hundred grand and untouched by the recession. My district went from 134 teachers to 108. Class size went from a max of 20 students a class in K-3 to over 30 students, per class. Nor was my district an anamoly. Every district in my area has laid off teachers. My wife's bad luck to get a teaching credential last year.
 

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