Merged Is a a Trump impeachment likely?

[theprestige]

I think it's clear. In Comey's case, since he reports to the Director of National Intelligence, that would be the person to report to. I'm sure he could also report to the AG.

Or Congress.

 

[The Don]

What odds did Ladbrokes give for a Trump presidency?

I don't believe Putin tried to tilt the election in Trump's favor. I think Putin had the same analysis from the same pundits, and like everybody else he predicted Hillary Clinton to win. Whatever he did, it should be interpreted with the expectation that Hillary would win.

Anyway, unless Ladbrokes predicted a Trump presidency, I don't think they have the demonstrated competency to accurately predict a Trump impeachment.

In any case, apart from initially "making the market", Ladbrokes (and other bookmakers) don't require insight or predictive power, they are just trying to balance the risk so that no matter how the situation turns out, they'll make money on it.

That the odds have shortened significantly doesn't mean that they think that the outcome is more likely but that their punters do, have bet accordingly and then Ladbrokes adjust the odds as necessary.

Of course an analysis of what happened to Trump's odds just before the election may give an insight into how well Ladbrokes' punters predicted the situation but even then they could be a completely different set of people.

 

[Upchurch]

I don't believe Putin tried to tilt the election in Trump's favor. I think Putin had the same analysis from the same pundits, and like everybody else he predicted Hillary Clinton to win. Whatever he did, it should be interpreted with the expectation that Hillary would win.

I agree that he was not trying to tilt the election in Trump's favor. He was likely trying to tilt the election against Clinton or, at least, to make her election look as shady as she accused Putin's election of being. However, after a certain point, those goals become identical. Naturally, he was doing it because he thought she'd win. Otherwise, why do anything at all?

 

[dejudge]

I don't believe Putin tried to tilt the election in Trump's favor. I think Putin had the same analysis from the same pundits, and like everybody else he predicted Hillary Clinton to win. Whatever he did, it should be interpreted with the expectation that Hillary would win.

Putin predicted Hilary would win? When did that happen?? The conclusion based on the evidence is that the Russians intereferred with the USA election in the attempt to make Trump win and he did.

Anyway, unless Ladbrokes predicted a Trump presidency, I don't think they have the demonstrated competency to accurately predict a Trump impeachment.

Ladbrokes' odds are irrelevant. Betting odds do not determine the actual outcome of any event.

The impeachment of Trump will be based on the findings of the Special Counsel.

I would bet that Trump is going to be impeached based on the fact that he has been shown to be a pathological liar and have appeared to have made claims about the former FBI director that are far from the truth.

The day is coming when Trump will hear the words "You are fired".

 

[Spindrift]

The impeachment of Trump will be based on the findings of the Special Counsel.

The impeachment of Trump will be based on a Republican congress willing to impeach a Republican president.

 

[Border Reiver]

I like to think about them in terms of alignment: Chaotic Evil or Lawful Evil?

Trump's more Chaotic Neutral then anything else.

 

[Upchurch]

Trump's more Chaotic Neutral then anything else.

I actually had that thought after I posted.

 

[John Jones]

I agree with this, with the exception that Trump has no balls.

(Metaphorically, of course.)

[...].

Oh please stop. He's a bad POTUS, but must one turn this thread into a discussion of "(Metaphorically, of course.)" sexual slurs?

I can't stand the pos POTUS, but these kind of slurs are what we can easily imagine coming from Donald Trump himself during the 2016 campaign.

 

[Babbylonian]

I don't see this as being a very significant factor. No military force in the world can challenge the might of the US military and the ones who come the closest are mostly close US allies. It's true enough that incompetent management from above could make any such resolution more costly to the US forces, but that's about it.

Welcome to not the point. The beast occupying the Oval Office is abysmally stupid in addition to its myriad of other faults. Not only could we end up in a war for little good reason (again) but it could easily choose the wrong target.

There are only two likely significant flashpoints at this time: North Korea and the Baltics.

That's just naive because there is no way to be certain where we might next be engaged militarily. There are over 7 billion people in the world and America has proven we'll go to war over the tiniest fraction of that.

 

[dejudge]

The impeachment of Trump will be based on a Republican congress willing to impeach a Republican president.

It cannot be assumed that Republicans will be the majority in Congress when impeachment is implemented.

Nixon's resignation came after a vote to impeach lasting more than a year of investigation.

If Democrats were to take control of the House then it is very likely that Trump's term in office will not last a full term.

 

[ddt]

It cannot be assumed that Republicans will be the majority in Congress when impeachment is implemented.

Nixon's resignation came after a vote to impeach more than a year of investigation.

If Democrats were to take control of the House then it is very likely that Trump's term in office will not last a full term.

Impeachment in the House requires only a simple majority, but the Senate needs to convict with a 2/3 supermajority. Even in the very unlikely event that the Democrats would take every Senate seat in the 2018 midterms, they wouldn't have a 2/3 majority. So ultimately, it comes down to Republican support.

 

[Spindrift]

It cannot be assumed that Republicans will be the majority in Congress when impeachment is implemented.

Nixon's resignation came after a vote to impeach lasting more than a year of investigation.

If Democrats were to take control of the House then it is very likely that Trump's term in office will not last a full term.

There was no impeachment vote on Nixon. He was informed that if there was one, he would lose.

The Democrats need control of the Senate for the Impeachment to pass.

Times change. Loyalty to party is of paramount importance, above loyalty to country. There would have to be overwhelming evidence against Trump and even then a lot of Republicans will not vote to impeach.

 

[dejudge]

Impeachment in the House requires only a simple majority, but the Senate needs to convict with a 2/3 supermajority. Even in the very unlikely event that the Democrats would take every Senate seat in the 2018 midterms, they wouldn't have a 2/3 majority. So ultimately, it comes down to Republican support.

Again, if impeachment in the House requires a simple majority then once the Democrats take control of the House and the impeachment vote occurs after November 6 2018 then Trump is likely to be impeached or forced to resign.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2018

The 2018 United States House of Representatives elections will be held on November 6, 2018. Elections will be held to elect representatives from all 435 congressional districts across each of the 50 U.S. states...

 

[Tony Stark]

Again, if impeachment in the House requires a simple majority then once the Democrats take control of the House and the impeachment vote occurs after November 6 2018 then Trump is likely to be impeached or forced to resign.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2018

Impeaching him wouldn't remove him from office, he would also have to be convicted in the Senate (by 2/3 vote) for that to happen.

Bill Clinton was impeached but not convicted in the Senate so he remained president until the end of the term.

 

[Spindrift]

Again, if impeachment in the House requires a simple majority then once the Democrats take control of the House and the impeachment vote occurs after November 6 2018 then Trump is likely to be impeached or forced to resign.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2018

Impeachment is not removal from office. Both Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton were impeached. However the Senate did not convict them and they remained in office.

ETA: Ninja'd by Stark Enterprises.

 

[dejudge]

Impeachment is not removal from office. Both Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton were impeached. However the Senate did not convict them and they remained in office.

ETA: Ninja'd by Stark Enterprises.

The question " Is a a Trump impeachment likely?"

Trump's impeachment is likely.

 

[psionl0]

Anyway, unless Ladbrokes predicted a Trump presidency, I don't think they have the demonstrated competency to accurately predict a Trump impeachment.

Ladbrokes don't make predictions, they take bets. They set the odds depending on how the bets are made. More gamblers are betting on a Trump impeachment and that lowers the odds accordingly.

 

[ddt]

It cannot be assumed that Republicans will be the majority in Congress when impeachment is implemented.

Nixon's resignation came after a vote to impeach lasting more than a year of investigation.

If Democrats were to take control of the House then it is very likely that Trump's term in office will not last a full term.

The question " Is a a Trump impeachment likely?"

Trump's impeachment is likely.

Technically, you're right there, but not with the highlighted conclusion - as Tony Stark, Spindrift and me have been trying to tell you. Impeachment does not mean removal of office, you need a subsequent Senate vote with 2/3 majority on that.

 

[Vixen]

Donald Trump will resign because he wants to spend less time with his family.

 

[WilliamSeger]

Republicans will resist as long as possible, and they might find one or two new dodges in this list from Art Buchwald, c.1973: