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Irrational Thinking: A Winner!

Well, that is one of Richard Black's articles. They seem to not deserve a title such as "left-leaning."

More like pure propaganda.

Amazing that anyone would cite Richard Black as a credible source.

I was trying to be polite, Haze...you should too, you naughty, naughty boy.

What, you'd rather a quote from CBS? The Guardian? The NYTimes!?

Will nothing suffice!?

Remember, just because a source is a communist and an activist in the "Green" movement, his or her position in the objective, centrist media put he or she above suspicion.


Unless he or she reports in the....wrong way. Then, clearly, he or she is a tool of big oil.


Best wishes,
Tokie
 
I invite you to support this conspiracy theory in an apropos thread:

CTs Concerning Global Warming Science

I didn't say it was a "conspiracy" of the UFO, Illuminati, Bildeberger sort.

There are conspiracies of commission, and conspiracies, if you will, of omission. In this case, the latter applies more than the former. Do the editors of these publications gather, don hooded robes, chant around a stone altar and plan their nefarious doings?

No. But as true believers themselves who've convinced themselves (and have an eye out for their own careers) that the "consensus" is accurate and so they view exculpatory evidence for human-caused global warming as woo.

Moreover, anyone who believes these same editors are not acutely aware of (and responding to) what their competitors are publishing, knows nothing of either science or the media.

Tokie
 
In fairness to Tokenconservative, his comment could be interpreted as a general statement about journal editors: Editors of scholarly publications favor articles that support the "main stream" scientific world view.
(That would be a difficult allegation to prove since it would require a good deal of inside information about acceptance rates for submissions by type, etc, but it is at least a plausible assertion.)

Tokenconservative did not allege a conspiracy. A conspiracy would require overt planning and organized efforts by the journal editors towards a common goal. The presumption of conspiracy is yours, and the annexation of "theory" to it was meant to dismiss his comment by ridicule rather than with substance.

Be that as it may, Tokenconservative still should either support his allegation with at least some modicum of evidence, or he should retract it.

This last: I only offer what I have been for oh, most of a decade on this: some few years ago now, Science stated in its letter from the editor in one edition (no...I don't know which one precisely; I did not keep it, I'm not going to expend the time and energy required to look it up...some young, college type should do that...I have a living to make, believe it or not) that it would no longer accept submissions of work attempting to "deny" that global warming is happening and that human activity is playing a role in it.

Probably, 3-4 years ago one of my favorite nature magazines, National Geographic, changed editors and he, in his maiden issue, made, essentially, the same statement.

While NG is not a "journal" per se, that's only because it accepts ads...otherwise, I think it can be taken as about the same level as a source.

Of course, I immediately canceled my subscriptions to both publications upon reading these things. I like my science oh, I dunno... a little more sciency.

Tokie
 
I was trying to be polite, Haze...you should too, you naughty, naughty boy.

What, you'd rather a quote from CBS? The Guardian? The NYTimes!? Will nothing suffice!?

Remember, just because a source is a communist and an activist in the "Green" movement, his or her position in the objective, centrist media put he or she above suspicion. Unless he or she reports in the....wrong way. Then, clearly, he or she is a tool of big oil.

Best wishes,
Tokie

Understood, but I do think Black is over the edge, while overall I have a fair amount of respect for the BBC. Who do you blame? The reporter? The editor? The owner of the paper? The readers?

Black, and some other "environmental correspondents" just grab the latest spin piece from several far left radical environmental groups and print it like a puppet.
 
Would you like to try that again in English? :)

I quote Mr. Howel when a pair of rival mobster gangs found their way onto the island: "Mulah, mulah, mulah..."

In this case, the intent appears to help make Algore and a few others great stinking piles of same...and it appears to be working.

Tokie
 
Understood, but I do think Black is over the edge, while overall I have a fair amount of respect for the BBC. Who do you blame? The reporter? The editor? The owner of the paper? The readers?

Black, and some other "environmental correspondents" just grab the latest spin piece from several far left radical environmental groups and print it like a puppet.

AGWists are up to their necks in woo. They have to be, and in the rationalizations necessary to make themselves feel that they are not. That's why they avoid this thread like a AGWist on his way to a conference in Bali avoids being photographed alongside his private Gulfstream.

I blame the editors more than the reporters, but the reporters get their fair share. In the case of the BBC, I believe their ownership, like our own PBS/NPR is, while not extreme leftist, certainly not a bunch of free market capitalists...they do have something of a monopoly (and I believe some residual government ownership?).

Look at our NYTimes, et al., or any of our "Big 4" so-called "news" boradcasters, all withering on the vine, due to ever-shrinking market share/readership. They tell themselves it's all because da youts is goin' elsewhere for their news, but the reality is more and more Americans, now that news is not a monopoly, are waking up and dumping this leftist agitprop factories.

Tokie

Tokie
 
AGWists are up to their necks in woo. They have to be, and in the rationalizations necessary to make themselves feel that they are not. That's why they avoid this thread like a AGWist on his way to a conference in Bali avoids being photographed alongside his private Gulfstream.....

....the reality is more and more Americans, now that news is not a monopoly, are waking up and dumping this leftist agitprop factories.

Tokie

Apocaholics Anonymous (AA) can help those who would help themselves.

But they must take the first step.
 
Understood, but I do think Black is over the edge, while overall I have a fair amount of respect for the BBC. Who do you blame? The reporter? The editor? The owner of the paper? The readers?

Black, and some other "environmental correspondents" just grab the latest spin piece from several far left radical environmental groups and print it like a puppet.

How can Richard Black be over the top?

The sum total of evidence obtained through this open invitation, then, is one first-hand claim of bias in scientific journals, not backed up by documentary evidence; and three second-hand claims, two well-known and one that the scientist in question does not consider evidence of anti-sceptic feeling.


Where are all these scientists who have been denied funding, publication, promotion etc purely for their research that shows that AGW is incorrect?

It is interesting that the scientists involved with climate change discuss the data and how the data fit the models. They become convinced of the reality of a model when the data agree. The deniers are never inconvenienced by the data because they just attack the scientists with unproven accusations of bias, suppression of research etc.

Richard Black made an attempt to find evidence of these statements from the people who should be able to supply it.

What was sent to him? One unsubstantiated first hand account.

If you have extra information that supports your belief, please supply it.
 
Hmm....you expended a good deal of energy responding like this, but said nothing.

Why?
You wish to pretend that I have "said nothing". I think we can all guess why. But, Tokie, Tokie. These consolling daydreams may make you feel better when they're just fantasies in your head. But when you say them out loud where other people can hear you ... well, you're a grown man, aren't you? So if you still need a comfort blanket, my advice is that you should keep it in the bedroom, rather than trailing it around in public.
 
I quote Mr. Howel when a pair of rival mobster gangs found their way onto the island: "Mulah, mulah, mulah..."

In this case, the intent appears to help make Algore and a few others great stinking piles of same...and it appears to be working.

Tokie

Keep it up, dude, the walls of Fortress AGW are crumbling. Just one more push (OK, maybe one more and another one) and they'll be down.

mhaze will be right behind you when you go through the breach.

(Irony)
 
Where are all these scientists who have been denied funding, publication, promotion etc purely for their research that shows that AGW is incorrect?

Scientists that cannot get funding/etc, end up in other industries. Think about it.

What is it to BE a scientist? In an ideal society all that would be required is that you follow the scientific method. In an actual society, you need funding at a minimum.

Funding comes in three major forms:

a) Private: its not yours to publish

b) Public: publish or perish

c) Personal: good luck getting published

It is interesting that the scientists involved with climate change discuss the data and how the data fit the models. They become convinced of the reality of a model when the data agree.

The first rule of making a model is to fit it to the data for if it doesnt fit the data then by definition it is wrong.

A good model shows skill at prediction.

Fortunately for the people who makes these models, they run it many times with different parameters so that they get many predictions out of it. This makes it easy to look good but not so easy to show any skill at it.

"-2c to 6c" and all that. Yeah, no kidding! Could have gotten that sort of "skill" with a least squares fit on the errors bars of the input data.

Richard Black made an attempt to find evidence of these statements from the people who should be able to supply it.

Did he perform an investigation and if so what steps did this investigation entail? Do you think that he shows skill as an investigative reporter?
 
How can Richard Black be over the top?

Where are all these scientists who have been denied funding, publication, promotion etc purely for their research that shows that AGW is incorrect?

It is interesting that the scientists involved with climate change discuss the data and how the data fit the models. They become convinced of the reality of a model when the data agree. The deniers are never inconvenienced by the data because they just attack the scientists with unproven accusations of bias, suppression of research etc.

Richard Black made an attempt to find evidence of these statements from the people who should be able to supply it.

What was sent to him? One unsubstantiated first hand account.

If you have extra information that supports your belief, please supply it.

Nonsense.

Checking the moderated blogs of the BBC relating to global warming, I find many documented examples of their not printing submissions by people skeptical of their particular view of climate science, eg, AGW. Now you have presumed complete unbias by an employee of that institution.

See a little problem there?
 
Scientists that cannot get funding/etc, end up in other industries. Think about it.

What is it to BE a scientist? In an ideal society all that would be required is that you follow the scientific method. In an actual society, you need funding at a minimum.

Funding comes in three major forms:

a) Private: its not yours to publish

b) Public: publish or perish

c) Personal: good luck getting published

So they ended up in another industry after trying to publish and/or do research. Does this stop them from emailing Black?


The first rule of making a model is to fit it to the data for if it doesnt fit the data then by definition it is wrong.

A good model shows skill at prediction.

Fortunately for the people who makes these models, they run it many times with different parameters so that they get many predictions out of it. This makes it easy to look good but not so easy to show any skill at it.

"-2c to 6c" and all that. Yeah, no kidding! Could have gotten that sort of "skill" with a least squares fit on the errors bars of the input data.
The first rule of making a model is to map the known theory into the algorithm(s). Then you test its predictions with data. In a complex system there will always be room to argue about the details. The point I made, is that this argument is a known and open process. The confidence limits and errors are widely published, in this way an intelligent conversation can be made on the pros and cons of any particular model. This is the way science progresses. This contrasts strongly with the majority of, in this case, AGW deniers, who vaguely argue for some giant conspiracy against anybody producing good research opposing AGW. Any scientist worth his/her salt would love to be able to prove a major flaw in any consensus or theory, it's the stuff that leads to Nobel prizes. Any major journal publisher would love to publish the paper, just think of the citations. The hurdle however is to find the flaw and be able to prove it. Just disagreeing because you don't like the conclusions won't cut it.

Did he perform an investigation and if so what steps did this investigation entail? Do you think that he shows skill as an investigative reporter?

He, very publicly, asked for any evidence to confirm that suppression etc had taken place. Of all the supposed myriads of disgruntled and suppressed scientists he found one new case who hadn't even retained the rejection letter from the journal. Asking for evidence to support claims is a normal situation, just see my next post.
 
Nonsense.

Checking the moderated blogs of the BBC relating to global warming, I find many documented examples of their not printing submissions by people skeptical of their particular view of climate science, eg, AGW. Now you have presumed complete unbias by an employee of that institution.

See a little problem there?

So you claim that the BBC did not publish submissions in their moderated blogs and yet you can see documented examples in these blogs that this happened.

Yes I do see a little problem here.

Any chance you can supply any links showing where this has happened?

As for the accusation of bias, the only way Black could have biased his report would be to lie about only receiving one new undocumented case. Is that what you are saying? This could be proved quite easily by yourself. Issue the same challenge and publish here all the documented and proven cases you received.
 
So you claim that the BBC did not publish submissions in their moderated blogs and yet you can see documented examples in these blogs that this happened.

Yes I do see a little problem here.

Any chance you can supply any links showing where this has happened?

As for the accusation of bias, the only way Black could have biased his report would be to lie about only receiving one new undocumented case. Is that what you are saying? This could be proved quite easily by yourself. Issue the same challenge and publish here all the documented and proven cases you received.

Look at what you are saying.

You are actually holding the work of a newspaper reporter up to some standards of accuracy such as are typical in peer reviewed research journals. Then you are saying that someone who is skeptical about that reporters claims should have the burden of proof of proving the newspaper reporter false.

That's patently ridiculous.

Any chance you can supply any links showing where this has happened?

Only a few minutes of Google-Fu showed examples of skeptical comments on global warming that the BBC did not publish.

Frankly I don't understand your concern here, this is just a newspaper reporter producing stories. It's not a scientist, and certainly not someone skilled in survey research. As for the BBC having moderated blogs and declining to print some things, anyone can have a moderated blog. JREF has a moderated discussion on AGW. So what?
 
Look at what you are saying.

You are actually holding the work of a newspaper reporter up to some standards of accuracy such as are typical in peer reviewed research journals. Then you are saying that someone who is skeptical about that reporters claims should have the burden of proof of proving the newspaper reporter false.

That's patently ridiculous.

I simply asked a question. Are you saying the Black lied? I notice you avoided answering, perhaps you didn't read it.

Any chance you can supply any links showing where this has happened?

Only a few minutes of Google-Fu showed examples of skeptical comments on global warming that the BBC did not publish.

Ah! You are a Fu-Master of searching, care to share any of your links with us lesser mortals?


Frankly I don't understand your concern here, this is just a newspaper reporter producing stories. It's not a scientist, and certainly not someone skilled in survey research.

Yes I can see you don't understand. Black made a request for anybody who felt they had been treated unfairly because of anti-AGW findings. There were already 2 known cases of disagreement. If there was a consistent suppression of anti-AGW findings and researchers had suffered because of their findings it would be reasonable to suppose that Black would receive more than one undocumented case. There can be no bias in reporting that figure. It was one. If Black received more than one then he would not be guilty of bias but of lying, I ask again, is this what you are claiming?

As for the BBC having moderated blogs and declining to print some things, anyone can have a moderated blog. JREF has a moderated discussion on AGW. So what?

You seem to forgotten that you first mentioned them.
Checking the moderated blogs of the BBC relating to global warming, I find many documented examples of their not printing submissions by people skeptical of their particular view of climate science, eg, AGW. Now you have presumed complete unbias by an employee of that institution.
 
Since we are only allowed to discuss this topic on this thread, here's what I would propose (I'm not going to painstakingly go through each point and supply links, though; the info is out there and supported by what I say below):

1) Validate existing models: This, believe it or not, has not been done adequately to this point and has, instead, lead to many suppositions being stated as proven fact. For example, in the field (I won't use the term "science", because it hasn't been proven to be one yet) of dendrochronology, which has been used as one of the primary supporting methodologies to prove historical temperature records in regions, there has never been an adequate prospective confirmation of the methodology. In one example where this was tried (in southern France), this methodology was most definitively not validated. What should be done is that specific, representative sample trees should be randomly selected and data should be collected over several growing seasons against direct, high-fidelity measurements of temperature, humidity, sunlight, moisture, and a whole host of other growing conditions that can affect tree-ring size in a growing seasons. These should then be compared directly - in an experimenter-blinded fashion - with the actual side-by-side recordings of the same parameters by the calibrated recording equipment. This would then either validate or refute, or at the very least provide a reference range, of the methodology being used to currently support the statements of fact being offered by researchers using this methodology. A similar methodology could be used for snowpack accretion of carbon dioxide. To my understanding, this has not been done to date and, where it has been attempted, the data is woefully inaccurate. This, to me, renders the entire historical temperature record suspect or, at the very least, with a much wider variance than is currently being reported.

2) Provide open access to all data: Again, much of the reports published are being done so based on what is being called proprietary data. When people request this raw data for independent analysis, they are being refused. This should automatically raise red flags to anyone who wants to put creedence in the data. For example, imagine if a pharmaceutical company (with which I have direct experience) submitted a new drug application with a bunch of summarized data, but refused to give the FDA the raw data to review and verify. I can certainly tell you that the drug application would not be accepted for review, let alone the drug being approved. The same holds true here. There are researchers who are offering study reports stating that they've proven a particular "fact" about climate change, yet are unwilling to offer their raw data for their methodology and analysis to be reviewed. Red flag. And, much of these reports are subsequently included in the greater argument without the opportunity for individual validation (see point 1).

3) [Open, invite, encourage, and welcome a multidisciplinary approach: Currently, the field generally relies on so-called "experts" in climatology, who have demonstrated this only by their publications in their own field. This is a bit isolationist. Any broad field of science, and certainly this one is, should include and welcome open input from physical and applied chemists, mathematicians, biostatisticians, people with expert understanding of research methodology, and a whole host of other commenters (etc.) to improve and strengthen the rigorousness of their methods. To suggest - and worse dismiss off-hand without further consideration - that certain people are not capable of providing criticism because they are not an expert (i.e., climatologist) diminishes potential novel and insightful perspective on the data and the conclusions being drawn from that data. It is always best to have a lot of questions from a lot of different disciplines that form the basis of each individual aspect of the field. This provides opportunity to explain, clarify, and reinforce correct ideas, as well as re-visit and revise incorrect ones. This also offers an opportunity to teach as well as learn. For some reason, the current camp seems loathe to do this instead choosing to attack when serious questions are asked and valid points are raised, instead of acknowledging where there are holes and gaps in the current theory. There is a real problem when only one group of scientists are doing all the science. Most, at least the ones I've dealt with professional over the past 14 years, invite open feedback and help from other disciplines. Why not here?

4) Table the politics: For now, we have to tone-down the tenor of this debate and take it out of the public policy milieu. This has done nothing but caused a lot of resentment among individuals and served to polarize the issue. This could simply be accomplished by saying something to this effect: "We have observed what we perceive to be statistically and scientifically significant climate change over the past 2 decades. Based on this, we are now going to make [these predictions] about what will happen over the next twenty years. These will be 'set in stone' so-to-speak, and we will re-visit these predictions then and determine if we were right. If they prove to be true, then we will agree to make difficult changes at that time to the way we live our lives in order to remedy what will then have proven to be our clear, irrefutable impact on the climate. It will not be 'too late' to do anything at that point, and we still until that point arrives continue to discuss remedies and plans for change. We will, however, not attempt to mandate them at the international level until we are proven correct." This would allow ample time to prospectively prove the point. And, at the end of that timeframe, you'd have a lot less ability by the so-called naysayers to disagree. What you need is buy-in now, and most of us who question the current "state of science" are actually quite reasonable people, provided that "fair play" (as described above) is in place.

5) Consider alternate hypotheses: What if the world is warming and man is causing it, but it has nothing to do with carbon dioxide? This could certainly also be a possibility. But, we're so focused on one variable that we are almost blind to other possibilities. Researchers and the public need to be open to the possibility that other factors might be at play, and that carbon dioxide may be a minimal, if at all, causative agent. Or, it might be the sole causative agent. If so, let's set-up ways to definitively and prospectively prove this.

I think if these things could be done, we would have a much more meaningful, believable set of premises on which to discuss this topic and continue the debate.

-Dr. Imago
 
I simply asked a question. Are you saying the Black lied? I notice you avoided answering, perhaps you didn't read it.

Ah! You are a Fu-Master of searching, care to share any of your links with us lesser mortals?

Yes I can see you don't understand. Black made a request for anybody who felt they had been treated unfairly because of anti-AGW findings. There were already 2 known cases of disagreement. If there was a consistent suppression of anti-AGW findings and researchers had suffered because of their findings it would be reasonable to suppose that Black would receive more than one undocumented case. There can be no bias in reporting that figure. It was one. If Black received more than one then he would not be guilty of bias but of lying, I ask again, is this what you are claiming?

You seem to forgotten that you first mentioned them.

1. To look at "bbc blog bias" you simply type that into Google, and you get 128,000 returns. Now, where do you want to go with that (somewhat separate) subject?

2. You seem bent on proving some point but we may be on different wavelengths here. I couldn't care less if AGW skeptics were denied publishing in journals. This is of course an interesting subject but it is clouded by some assertion of an authoritative study by a newspaper reporter. There is no such thing as an authoritative study by a newspaper reporter. Lying isn't a necessary prerequisite to being wrong or promulgating dis or mis information intentionally or by way of going with the crowd. Go find some authoritative studies if you like.

3. There can be no bias in reporting that figure. It was one. If Black received more than one then he would not be guilty of bias but of lying.

Since you just insist on coming back around to the veracity of Black let's examine your assertion. How would one know if he received more than one? Is there a box somewhere where the letters or emails were kept which was opened by some impartial party? No. So no one really knows anything, do they?

You seem to be saying is something like this "Let's trust Black, his data and methods. Since we trust him, we can rely on his conclusions. And they say no skeptics were denied publishing". Well, you are quite welcome to say something like that. But don't be surprised if people are skeptical.

Personally I could not care less about a "survey" done by a "newspaper reporter". Why is it important to you that him or his survey be considered valid?
 

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