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Irma's Coming!

Loss Leader said:
We've decided to hunker down here in inland Palm Beach County. Tomorrow, we'll be hoarding water and looking to fill in some gaps - OTC meds, cell-phone chargers, etc. We're preparing for 5 days without power or safe water. After that ...
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One thing about Irma is, it seems to be a fairly quick-moving storm. The NHC is projecting the main part of the storm will make landfall in South Florida around 2AM on Sunday and move through the area in a few hours. Unlike Harvey in the Houston area where the intense rainfall seemed to last for over 24-hours. Irma is not supposed to produce the amount of rainfall Harvey did either. Weather scientists seem to believe one of the reasons for Harvey's record rainfall, over four feet in some areas, was from Harvey picking up huge amounts of moisture from a Gulf that is much warmer than normal even for this time of year. I've read water temperatures were about seven degrees warmer than average.

As the chart below shows, Irma may not come up the East Coast as originally predicted, but move further west, impacting inland areas. In fact, I keep wondering, the projections show Irma, after hitting Cuba and approaching the Florida Keys, making a right and moving into Florida. What are the chances, I wonder, of the storm continuing on the track to the northwest and crossing the Gulf not Florida. But then I guess New Orleans would be in the path.

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Loss Leader said:
He isn't getting in the way of the systems in place. That's the best I can say about him.
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He accidently picked a FEMA director with experience responding to hurricanes.

I finished buying food and water and going to ride it out. I'm far enough away from the bay and at 27 feet of elevation (high for Florida) so that I'm not in a flood zone.
 
Loss Leader said:
We've decided to hunker down here in inland Palm Beach County. Tomorrow, we'll be hoarding water and looking to fill in some gaps - OTC meds, cell-phone chargers, etc. We're preparing for 5 days without power or safe water. After that ...
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Craig4 said:
...I finished buying food and water and going to ride it out. I'm far enough away from the bay and at 27 feet of elevation (high for Florida) so that I'm not in a flood zone.
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As I mentioned, I have family in the Fort Lauderdale area, that includes two daughters, their husbands, some grandkids, and they're not leaving either. I really really hope everybody down there comes through this okay. Evacuating seems to me to be a tough call. Where do you go? The whole state seems to be at risk, so do you have to evacuate outside Florida? To where?
 
I suppose there's one relatively encouraging feature of the information coming out of the Caribbean islands and that is that while property damage has been horrendous the death toll is relatively small. Not even into three figures. It seems that with proper preparations it's possible to live through the storm.

Evacuating isn't going to prevent your property from being damaged. You can't evacuate a house or a shop. You can't even evacuate much of your personal possessions. And given the sheer extent of the possible affected area and the number of people living there, how feasible is mass evacuation anyway?

I can see the point of getting the very elderly and infirm out. But maybe for other people it's better to arrange to ride out the storm somewhere that's well enough protected, and have enough provisions to manage for a week or so afterwards without any normal services.

One of the things that struck me about the post-Katrina situation was the lovely weather being shown along with all the film of overtopped levees and flooded houses. It was the property and infrastructure damage that was the problem.

Mind you, if Jose is coming behind to hit the same places, that's bad. I see they're talking about completely evacuating Barbuda if Jose looks like it's going to hit. Feasible, because that's not so many people. What to do if the Florida infrastructure and built environment is trashed by Irma and Jose is then heading the same place? Nobody is going to have resources to ride out two in a row, but there are so many people, where could they go?
 
By the way, what's Katia? By the naming convention it should be behind Jose, but maps are showing it as being in front of Irma.
 
newyorkguy said:
Evacuating seems to me to be a tough call. Where do you go? The whole state seems to be at risk, so do you have to evacuate outside Florida? To where?
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I find it quite odd and ironic that the safest place to be during Hurricane Irma appears to be "on a boat".
 
USA Today has a story about the evacuation.
Hurricane Irma has proven a unique challenge for Floridians trying to escape. Such storms usually hit the Sunshine State from the east or west, allowing residents to flee north or south to avoid the damage. But with Irma projected to make an unusual landfall from the south, the Category 5 behemoth could envelop the entire Florida peninsula. That has forced evacuees to drive farther and farther north, creating an evacuation route longer than any storm in recent history.

Florida Gov. Rick Scott said his office is working with fuel suppliers to ensure that gas stations along the Florida Turnpike, I-95 and I-75 — the main highways leading out of South Florida — are kept open and stocked to accommodate the thousands of cars heading north...The governor ordered the Florida Highway Patrol to escort fuel trucks along the entire evacuation route, and was working with the Department of Defense to arrange a military escort for a fuel tanker headed toward the Port Tampa Bay. "For gas stations in evacuation zones: we need you to stay open as long as possible so people can get out," Scott said. Link
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I watched a local news show from Miami last night, and the weather forecaster explained the greatest risk for Floridians is the storm surge in coastal areas. Those are the areas that are getting the mandatory evacuation orders.
 
Splendid. Jose upgraded to a Category 4 with 150mph winds as well. Looks like it may turn away from the US but Bermuda is in the crosshairs, as is Barbuda, St. Thomas and St. Maarten. Again. There may be time yet for it to go north of those locations though, so hopefully for their sake it does.
 
Looking now at Ventusky.

Eye is going to pass just west of Lake Okeechobee Sunday night, around 10 pm.

The northward turn has been moving more and more west each day.
By the time it does turn north (as expected) it might skirt the Gulf Coast.
 
C_Felix said:
Looking now at Ventusky.

Eye is going to pass just west of Lake Okeechobee Sunday night, around 10 pm.

The northward turn has been moving more and more west each day.
By the time it does turn north (as expected) it might skirt the Gulf Coast.
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Well, it was nice knowing all of you.
 
Darat said:
Been reading quite few reports and the like on social media and I'm struck by the number of comments asking god to protect them, keep them safe etc. (Don't read much directly on social media so this may be nothing unusual - just unusual for me to read it.)

I think many have their faith in the wrong place.
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If you survive, God saved you. If you die, no one hears about your complaint that he didn't. Makes it look like God saves people.
 
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