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Irma's Coming!

newyorkguy said:
In the Weather Channel report I linked they explained why the computer models -- which are usually pretty accurate -- predicted the storm track would become northerly. As the storm approaches Florida a huge high pressure system to the northeast will pull Irma from a NW track to a more northerly track.

Meanwhile, the eye passed over the Florida Keys about an hour ago, upgraded to a Cat 4, with 130-mph winds. The storm is now tracking further west then originally predicted.


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If it stays longer over water does that mean it's likely to get stronger before it hits the mainland?
 
Foolmewunz said:
Got that. My question is why release a few brazillion gallons all at once, if that's what they did?
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The water was already going over the spillways. The danger was that the amount of water coming in was so great that there was danger of over-topping the dam (more coming in than the spillway could handle).
Since those are mostly earthen dams, that is a HUGE problem

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
Argumemnon said:
If it stays longer over water does that mean it's likely to get stronger before it hits the mainland?
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I think that's a pretty good concern. According to CNN, in Tampa as of last night the eye was expected to pass a bit to the west. This morning the track looks like it will be about two miles west of Tampa, over the Gulf of Mexico and gathering strength. The storm is cyclical, rotating counter-clockwise, with some of the most severe affects to areas NE of the leading edge of the eye. Tampa is now in that zone.

The good news is, the storm has lost strength, the prediction for Tampa is a Cat 2, but it may build back up to a Cat 3 as it passes over the Gulf. This is the forecast from the National Weather service for the Tampa area:
Tampa - Apollo Beach - Westchase * WIND - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Cat 2 Hurricane force wind - Peak Wind Forecast: 80-100 mph with gusts to 125 mph - Window for Tropical Storm force winds: until Monday afternoon - Window for Hurricane force winds: early this evening until early Monday morning - CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Extreme - The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - Remain braced against the reasonable threat for major hurricane force wind greater than 110 mph of equivalent Category 3 intensity or higher. Link.
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Heavy rains have started here already. Irma is huge.... Not much wind yet, though we did lose one tree already. NW part of town is without power due to a downed tree, though that should be restored soon.
 
rwguinn said:
The water was already going over the spillways. The danger was that the amount of water coming in was so great that there was danger of over-topping the dam (more coming in than the spillway could handle).
Since those are mostly earthen dams, that is a HUGE problem

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
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Thanks. I'm thinking great huge cement dams and channels for the spillways. I didn't think of our own reservoirs here - chiefly man-made lakes with earthen or natural barriers. File it away under B for brainfart.
 
I live in North Georgia. This morning (Sunday, local time 11:20) we have clear skies and cool winds at about 20 mph, with occasional much higher gusts. I've had to take in our porch furniture because the chairs blew over. Our bird feeder has gone elsewhere, and the shepherd's crook it hung on is now at a fifty-degree angle.
 
Vixen said:
There is more to it than just wind speed (which is what the hurricane categories are graded on). Remember, Harvey landed as a category 1, by the time it reached Houston. Its big hazard was remaining in the same place and dumping 40 inches of rain in a few days. There are also deadly storm surges. Florida is expecting 3 - 10 feet and yet Miami beach is just 3 feet above sea level.

In addition, according to weather expert John Morales of NBC6:



So, we saw Antigua escape major damage, whilst its sister island, Barbuda 95 miles to the North, was flattened, as it was bang in the eye of the storm.

Another hazard are those to nuclear reactors on the shore. Remember Fukushima, after the tsunami in 2004?

Trust the POTUS to call it 'epic'.

Poor choice of words, yet again, as though he's talking about a Hollywood disaster movie.
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newyorkguy said:
In the Weather Channel report I linked they explained why the computer models -- which are usually pretty accurate -- predicted the storm track would become northerly. As the storm approaches Florida a huge high pressure system to the northeast will pull Irma from a NW track to a more northerly track.

Meanwhile, the eye passed over the Florida Keys about an hour ago, upgraded to a Cat 4, with 130-mph winds. The storm is now tracking further west then originally predicted.


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Another interesting write up about models:
US forecast models have been pretty terrible during Hurricane Irma
 
Craig4 said:
Tampa here. Already in the out rain bands. No wind yet.
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Watch out for your neighbor! I'm sure Florida Man is going to be the equivalent of the guy(s) in every typhoon that hit Taiwan when I was there.... We had a pool on how many people would die because they "went down to the shore or fishing boat pier to watch the typhoon come in". It was like clockwork.

I'm quite sure that by Monday, we'll see a "Florida Man Lost in the Gulf After Hurricane Party on the Beach" headline or two.
 
Foolmewunz said:
Watch out for your neighbor! I'm sure Florida Man is going to be the equivalent of the guy(s) in every typhoon that hit Taiwan when I was there.... We had a pool on how many people would die because they "went down to the shore or fishing boat pier to watch the typhoon come in". It was like clockwork.

I'm quite sure that by Monday, we'll see a "Florida Man Lost in the Gulf After Hurricane Party on the Beach" headline or two.
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Already one teenage pro-surfer killed. One near miss with man knocked down by wave whilst filming it.
 
Foolmewunz said:
Watch out for your neighbor! I'm sure Florida Man is going to be the equivalent of the guy(s) in every typhoon that hit Taiwan when I was there.... We had a pool on how many people would die because they "went down to the shore or fishing boat pier to watch the typhoon come in". It was like clockwork.

I'm quite sure that by Monday, we'll see a "Florida Man Lost in the Gulf After Hurricane Party on the Beach" headline or two.
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You ain't kidding. I was at Bass Pro Shops on Friday. Although the camping supplies area was sensibly crowded, there was a brisk business at the gun counter too. Just what Florida needs, more untrained twitchy people with guns.
 
A TV reporter in Miami for the local NBC affiliate, Channel 6, is out on Brickell Avenue, one of the major thoroughfares and the one closest to Biscayne Bay. It is beginning to flood. The screen cap below was taken as he began to walk east on SE 12th Street towards the Bay.

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The reporter, Jose Diaz-Balart, is walking east on SE 12th Street towards Biscayne Bay. He reports he can see the waves off the Bay breaking over the retaining wall. At SE 12th and Brickell Bay Drive the water is already knee deep.

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newyorkguy said:
A TV reporter in Miami for the local NBC affiliate, Channel 6, is out on Brickell Avenue, one of the major thoroughfares and the one closest to Biscayne Bay. It is beginning to flood. The screen cap below was taken as he began to walk east on SE 12th Street towards the Bay.

Link
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newyorkguy said:
The reporter, Jose Diaz-Balart, is walking east on SE 12th Street towards Biscayne Bay. He reports he can see the waves off the Bay breaking over the retaining wall. At SE 12th and Brickell Bay Drive the water is already knee deep.

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I'm really tired of watching these idiot reporters out doing what they just spent half the morning telling us what to do.
 
Trebuchet said:
I'm really tired of watching these idiot reporters out doing what they just spent half the morning telling us what to do.
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Aye. It's the cult of flamboyance and it drives me nuts too.

"These snakes are super-venomous and really bad-tempered. So when I pick this one up it's totally pissed and wanting to kill me, big time"
 
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