Intrade

[JoeTheJuggler]

Dead cat bounce.

Except, of course, that doesn't describe the behavior of this stock. There was a quick rise from the starting price of $5 to $6. It hovered around there except for a big spike up to about $7 (the highest volume of trading in one day, too), which almost immediately fell back to about $6 then gradually came back down to about $5. It's certainly not "sinking fast".


And the highest GOP stock right now is Rick Perry at $3.55 per share.

At any rate, as I've been saying, these things don't mean much this far in advance.

 

[Neally]

Right now the market gives a 58% chance of an Obama re-election;

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=743474

I know these markets tend to be very accurate a few months out, but has it been studied how accurate they are 18 months out?

3 months later, Obama is at 47% .

 

[BenBurch]

3 months later, Obama is at 47% .

I predict it will change markedly once the GOP field comes down to a winner.

Especially this GOP field. There has to be somebody electable who could run because none of the GOP hopefuls have a prayer of winning unless we have a bigger meltdown than anybody expects now.

 

[Neally]

I predict it will change markedly once the GOP field comes down to a winner.

Especially this GOP field. There has to be somebody electable who could run because none of the GOP hopefuls have a prayer of winning unless we have a bigger meltdown than anybody expects now.

It always changes as things get closer to the vote. Let's just say at this point the trend isn't good for BO with him now polling against a Generic Republican 47%, Obama 41%.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/generic_presidential_ballot/election_2012_generic_presidential_ballot

 

[mhaze]

It always changes as things get closer to the vote. Let's just say at this point the trend isn't good for BO with him now polling against a Generic Republican 47%, Obama 41%.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/generic_presidential_ballot/election_2012_generic_presidential_ballot

Not that it matters what I think or like, but I'm basically okay with Perry, Romney or Cain. Lots of people I know think pretty much the same way.

It does seem to be shaping up to an "Anything but Obama" sentiment.

This time around Obaby isn't going to get college kids out in droves, and that black vote will be split partly, or really, really split if Cain is around either as the candidate or the VP candidate. And the Independents, they not so hopey-changy any more.

Lots of talent lurking at the sidelines, too. Rubio, Christi, Palin, Powell. Sooner or later they are going to start endorsing one or another of the candidates.

I predict it will change markedly once the GOP field comes down to a winner.

Especially this GOP field. There has to be somebody electable who could run because none of the GOP hopefuls have a prayer of winning unless we have a bigger meltdown than anybody expects now.

Lots of times this operates in reverse, whoever the solid Leftist hatest does the bestest.