Interesting JE Hits....

neofight said:


Real quickly, I don't believe that it is only a matter of JE being the best cold-reader in the world because as Loki says, he sometimes comes out with hits that we just don't believe can be explained by simple cold-reading. Loki thinks there has to be some hot-reading done as well. I disagee.

Ok, but just for argument's sake, pretend you think JE is a cold reader.

Would you acknowledge that NOT finding a better cold reader is NOT evidence of JE being a medium?

As people have tried to illustrate by analogy, an individual who is well known for supreme performance in their craft(ie Michael Jordon or Donald Bradman) does not necessarily demonstrate paranormal ability.
 
neofight said:
What I was trying to say is that on "Crossing Over", the show, the entire show consists of only a couple of readings. Sometimes the entire show features only one (1) single reading, either with one person or one small group of family and/or friends.

Yes, I am aware of that. You are not addressing the issue, neo:

Where do the 19 minutes worth of a 30-minute reading go?

neofight said:
This shows a heck of a lot more of the actual reading than did the few seconds per reading that ABC aired of Ian Rowland's readings.....neo

That may be so, but we are not discussing Rowland now. We are talking about the 30-minute readings.

Doesn't it look very much as if those 19 minutes are edited out, neo?

neofight said:
There have been obvious sound/technical problems from time to time on LKL, including a person calling in while a train was passing by, and poor telephone connections, as well as the caller being disconnected too quickly to validate something that John said............neo

Yes, that's nice. Are you saying that these account for the bad readings on LKL?
 
Re: LKL part 2

renata said:
Reading (lost count of which number)



15 guesses
2 misses
5 weak hits
4 not validated
3 hits
1 not scored
.

Something to consider to when counting hits and misses like this is that the people getting their readings done are believers and want them to succeed. Many of them will will be very forgiving of Edward's statements, calling them hits when they are really only vaguelly accurate. You would really have to do some investigating to find out how accurate one of Edward's readings has been.
 
All these interesting hits and what do we as a species have to show for it?

A re-imaging of Battlestar Galactica.

:rolleyes:
 
renata said:



(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, "Crossing Over With John Edward")
EDWARD: You cut down his tree?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Oh my God, the tree in the backyard.
EDWARD: You cut down his tree?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Yes, at the cemetery. We just noticed it yesterday. We went Father's Day with the kids. The tree was gone that's right by the plot, right in front. They cut it down, they said, so the sun could shine on daddy.
EDWARD: That's a nice way of covering it, because that tree was how people found him.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Yes. That's how we noticed when we drove to the mall. We used to look for the tree so we can see the plot. Oh my God.
(END VIDEO CLIP)





Well, well. I was just continuing with analysis of another LKL reading, when I stumbled onto this



http://www.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0209/06/lkl.00.html

I guess he does use it more often. I guess the reading you quoted is not the one time he uses it.

Great example. Nice work. Notice too how the sitter stretches things to make the statement a "hit", ignoring differances between what Edward described and her own tree cutting incident. Edward talks about her cutting down a tree at some point in her life - he doesn't specify when - and she relates it to a tree someone else with a connection to her had cut down.

This kind of thing goes on quite a bit, I think.
 
Something to consider to when counting hits and misses like this is that the people getting their readings done are believers and want them to succeed. Many of them will will be very forgiving of Edward's statements, calling them hits when they are really only vaguelly accurate. You would really have to do some investigating to find out how accurate one of Edward's readings has been.

If you really want to be fair (or picky - depending on your view) with hits and misses, you should count several misses for each apparent hit. This is due to JE's annoying gerneralities.

Example:

JE says 'I have an older male presence that has crossed'. Sitter says, 'yes I lost my father'.

Rather than a weak hit, this is really 1 hit and 4 misses.

So that is one hit for father, one miss for each of older brother, older cousin, older friend, grandfather.

So his one ridiculously vague guess is really a 1 for 5, or 20%.
 
dingler44 said:


Ok, but just for argument's sake, pretend you think JE is a cold reader.

Would you acknowledge that NOT finding a better cold reader is NOT evidence of JE being a medium?

As people have tried to illustrate by analogy, an individual who is well known for supreme performance in their craft(ie Michael Jordon or Donald Bradman) does not necessarily demonstrate paranormal ability.

Dingler, what I would acknowledge is that NOT finding a cold reader who performs better than JE does NOT constitute absolute proof that JE is a medium, but I do consider it to be evidence enough to consider that the possiblity of his being a medium does exist.

Is it just me, or is that sentence not written as well as it should have been? :( ...........neo
 
Neo,

Is it just me, or is that sentence not written as well as it should have been?
I think that sentence is not not written as well as it should not have been - which is to say that it's written or not written as well as not writing it would not have been.
 
"So that is one hit for father, one miss for each of older brother, older cousin, older friend, grandfather.

So his one ridiculously vague guess is really a 1 for 5, or 20%."

How would you tally up the hits and misses of this statement if the sitter does not have an older male brother, cousin or friend?
I appreciate the fact that older male is vague but when he gets a name or relationship or both on the first time it ceases to be vague.
 
SteveGrenard said:
How would you tally up the hits and misses of this statement if the sitter does not have an older male brother, cousin or friend? I appreciate the fact that older male is vague but when he gets a name or relationship or both on the first time it ceases to be vague.

Because the sitter validates. That is an axiom in mediumship, right? We never get any other validation than that from the sitter. Schwartz relies entirely on this, too.

So, if the sitter only says that it fits only one, then it fits only one. Ergo, Starrman's assessment is in full compliance with the rules of mediumship.
 
Because the sitter validates. That is an axiom in mediumship, right? We never get any other validation than that from the sitter. Schwartz relies entirely on this, too.

Rply: The medium gets older male deceased. There is only one and that's father. There is no older brother, older male friend and
grandpa is still alive. Whats the tally? Very simple. What has who validates got to do with my question? Nothing.

This example of tallying was a very deceitful means of arriving at a number 20%. If the medium gets older male deceased and there is one, and only one, and there are no other older males or older males who are deceased, then that's a hit. There are no implied misses as starrman is trying to make.

C: So, if the sitter only says that it fits only one, then it fits only one. Ergo, Starrman's assessment is in full compliance with the rules of mediumship.

Reply: The rules of mediumship? Where can I find these rules please? Please give me a link or other reference. Show me the evidence that such rules exist, who promulgated these rules and under what authority and what they are.
 
CFLarsen said:
Because the sitter validates. That is an axiom in mediumship, right? We never get any other validation than that from the sitter. Schwartz relies entirely on this, too.

So, if the sitter only says that it fits only one, then it fits only one. Ergo, Starrman's assessment is in full compliance with the rules of mediumship.
Validation isn't necessary. JE has often declared, "Psychic amnesia!" in audience settings when the victim-at-hand is unable to "validate" JE's statements. Sylvia Browne often makes statements -- usually related to medical issues or her peculiar religious doctrines -- that the victim-at-hand is unable to "validate". Other mediums do this. Typical of un-validated statements are the "Go home and think about this," comments from mediums.

It is true that much depends upon the sitter retro-fitting the medium's statements to their lives. In laboratory settings, much depends upon the experimenter's fitting of the medium's statements. Any bias must be eliminated.

If I were to test a "medium" in a laboratory setting, I would restrict the readings to specific sets of pre-determined details for specific sitters. These of course would be randomized and double-blinded. No "I'm getting a father figure," or "He's pointing at his chest," nonsense would be permitted. The key issue is that the results should never be subject to interpretation as to whether or not they were hits. No fuzzy logic, no "scoring", no experimenter judging.

The tests have to be binary, yes/no, black/white, hit/no hit. If mediums are unwilling to do this, and if experimenters are unwilling to do this, none of them can expect anybody to believe the results of their laboratory "tests".
 
SteveGrenard said:
C: So, if the sitter only says that it fits only one, then it fits only one. Ergo, Starrman's assessment is in full compliance with the rules of mediumship.

Reply: The rules of mediumship? Where can I find these rules please? Please give me a link or other reference. Show me the evidence that such rules exist, who promulgated these rules and under what authority and what they are.
Probably right next to the rules for other magic tricks that are closely guarded and rarely shared with others, and then only with those who are part of the inner circle. From what I'm able to figure out from reading the various biographies and autobiographies of mediums, the techniques are informally passed along. JVP studied with Hurst, Hurst studied with Leslie Flint, Flint studied with -- and married -- Edith Mundin, and so on. The lineage of mediumship isn't all that hard to trace. The "rules", or techniques, vary slightly among mediums, but can be observed, and can be taught.
 
P: The tests have to be binary, yes/no, black/white, hit/no hit. If mediums are unwilling to do this, and if experimenters are unwilling to do this, none of them can expect anybody to believe the results of their laboratory "tests".


R: There are many examples of highly specific, dead-on (excuse the reference) hits that come up without equivocation or debate.
I have given some examples elsewhere as have others. On the issue of retro-fitting, I agree that trying to make something fit or strecthing or reaching is invalid. On the other hand there are highly specific details which are not known to the sitter in the lab or at the time of the sitting which are validated after consultation with others or personal reference checking. I did not know my childhood dog's brother's name given to me by a medium. I had to validate it afterwards. This was in the context of a highly specific piece of information that meant nothing to me at the time the medium gave it. I was advised that a dog that looked like my dog Pinky (which was named and described) was present and it was Buster. I knew no dog named Buster. Clearly incorrect. The next day I asked my mother if she knew who Buster was. I didn't tell her anything else or about the reading. She is 82 but pretty sharp. She responded w/o hesitation "Oh, that was Pinky's brother's name." Unequivocal. No stretching, no making it fit. A simple validated fact I have no reason to doubt.

So there are no rules, just a perception of handed down lore. Thank you. Nothing official. Insofar as I am concerned, the only rule is that to be valid, everything a medium gets must be 100% accurate and specific, whether validated at the time or afterwards; that the information be given without the benefit of feedback at the time, even including yes/no responses (trance mediums do no ask questions and do not elicit responses) and that the sitter and medium are mutually anonymous to each other to eliminate prior research or hot reading. Warm reading can be eliminated in one on ones by using separate rooms or screening that prevents the medium from seeing body language. This is also eliminated using IRC and telephones.

This leaves guessing for the medium. While the sitters know the so-called guesses are accurate, scientists studying this need to calculate the probabilities for such guessing and the probabilities that a constellation of valid guesses are all accurate. If you want to use guessing as an hypohesis for a fraudulent reading this needs to go beyond simple binary facts. Otherwise if you rate with yes/no, then you cannot advance guessing as an hypothesis.

I do not know why mediums performing in front of groups ranging from 20 to 1000s of people fish for information, make vague assertions like older male or pointing to chest as what they see but I postulate it is because there are so many overlapping communications being received that they are confused until which time the signal they get or whatever it is they get becomes clear for the targeted sitter. I do not think that performances in front of audiences is a valid way to validate or invalidate ADC; it is merely a means to offer the service to larger numbers by a sort of random lottery, make money and garner P.R. I never disagreed with the disclaimer issue it is entertainment. It always has been. It has no scientific value whatsoever and I do not know why we even continue to bother to discuss it save for the fact, besides personal experiences some of us may've had, it is the only exposure anyone has to this process.
 
Pyrrho: The tests have to be binary, yes/no, black/white, hit/no hit. If mediums are unwilling to do this, and if experimenters are unwilling to do this, none of them can expect anybody to believe the results of their laboratory "tests".

Grenard: There are many examples of highly specific, dead-on (excuse the reference) hits that come up without equivocation or debate.
I have given some examples elsewhere as have others. On the issue of retro-fitting, I agree that trying to make something fit or strecthing or reaching is invalid. On the other hand there are highly specific details which are not known to the sitter in the lab or at the time of the sitting which are validated after consultation with others or personal reference checking.


Pyrrho: That sort of post-sitting validation is obviously subjective and could not apply to a laboratory test. Sorry, but that's giving the medium the benefit of the doubt where none is justified.


Grenard: I did not know my childhood dog's brother's name given to me by a medium. I had to validate it afterwards. This was in the context of a highly specific piece of information that meant nothing to me at the time the medium gave it. The day after I was advised that a dog that looked like my dog Pinky (which was named and described) was present and it was Buster. I knew no dog named Buster. Clearly incorrect. The next day I asked my mother if she knew who Buster was. I didn't tell her anything else or about the reading. She is 82 but pretty sharp. She responded w/o hesitation "Oh, that was Pinky's brother's name." Unequivocal. No stretching, no making it fit. A simple validated fact I have no reason to doubt.

Pyrrho: A simple validated fact that is completely anecdotal. I don't want to delve into the problems of anecdotal evidence, but it just doesn't qualify as scientific evidence. It's satisfactory to you, but explains and means nothing more.


Grenard: So there are no rules, just a perception of handed down lore. Thank you. Nothing official.

Pyrrho: Nothing official that the community of mediums cares to admit. ;) Clearly some sort of schooling goes on -- mediums have clearly stated that they were taught by other mediums. The typical claim is that the medium discovered their "gifts" in childhood, and underwent profound insights upon meeting certain other mediums who were already practicing the craft.

Grenard: Insofar as I am concerned, the only rule is that to be valid, everything a medium gets must be 100% accurate and specific, whether validated at the time or afterwards; that the information be given without the benefit of feedback at the time, even including yes/no responses (trance mediums do no ask questions and do not elicit responses) and that the sitter and medium are mutually anonymous to each other to eliminate prior research or hot reading. Warm reading can be eliminated in one on ones by using separate rooms or screening that prevents the medium from seeing body language. This is also eliminated using IRC and telephones.

Pyrrho: I wouldn't even have the sitter and the medium in the same building. The experimenter's team should be separated; member of the team interacting with the medium should have no interaction at all with the sitters, nor should the sitter's team have interaction with the medium. Neither team should know that a medium or sitter is even present at the time of the reading.

I would eliminate post-sitting validations. Only those readings validated at the time of the sitting should qualify. I see no reason why the dead person could not provide answers that can be validated immediately. This is why I suggested that a restricted pool of information be used, instead of allowing "hits" on details not included in that pool, to be "validated" later.

IRC is not a valid communication method. Information about the sitter's locale can be deduced from IP addresses. Telephones don't make sense. If the sitter gives no feedback, the sitting should be able to be held at a specific time, the medium issues their reading, and the results examined, without need for real-world physical connection via telephone. Surely the dead are not restricted by real-world physics...

Grenard: This leaves guessing for the medium. While the sitters know the so-called guesses are accurate, scientists studying this need to calculate the probabilities for such guessing and the probabilities that a constellation of valid guesses are all accurate. If you want to use guessing as an hypohesis for a fraudulent reading this needs to go beyond simple binary facts. Otherwise if you rate with yes/no, then you cannot advance guessing as an hypothesis.

Pyrrho: I haven't advanced guessing as an hypothesis. The test is to determine if a medium can receive communication from the dead. It's a yes or no question. If yes, the dead should be able to provide answers to binary questions. The need to calculate probabilities should be eliminated, in order to avoid any chance of statistical error or bias by the experimenter. With probabilities, statistics, etc, the potential exists for the medium to miss completely most of the time, but to score very high in terms of probability, given what the experimenter might conclude is a statistically significant "hit".

Grenard: I do not know why mediums performing in front of groups ranging from 20 to 1000s of people fish for information, make vague assertions like older male or pointing to chest as what they see but I postulate it is because there are so many overlapping communications being received that they are confused until which time the signal they get or whatever it is they get becomes clear for the targeted sitter. I do not think that performances in front of audiences is a valid way to validate or invalidate ADC; it is merely a means to offer the service to larger numbers by a sort of random lottery, make money and garner P.R. I never disagreed with the disclaimer issue it is entertainment. It always has been. It has no scientific value whatsoever and I do not know why we even continue to bother to discuss it save for the fact, besides personal experiences some of us may've had, it is the only exposure anyone has to this process.

Pyrrho: I included references to "Pointing at his chest," as an example of vague readings that should not be permitted in a laboratory setting. Performances are performances. When it comes down to testing the real deal, ambiguity cannot be allowed.
 
P: The tests have to be binary, yes/no, black/white, hit/no hit. If mediums are unwilling to do this, and if experimenters are unwilling to do this, none of them can expect anybody to believe the results of their laboratory "tests".

Reply: If you do not hypothesize or advance any other type of sensory leakage after all opportunities for cold, warm and hot reading have been eliminated, e.g. guessing, then I agree. The information is either right or wrong, yes or no. This is on a one on one under lab conditions. Hyman has been fond of saying he could find nothing wrong with studies he has looked at but qualifies that with vague statements of his own saying he knows there is a flaw or a problem somewhere but just doesn't know what it is. Hymanesque remarks like this need to be discarded as well if we accept this protocol. Its not good enough for him to say the results were valid but there is some sensory leakge or other flaws or factors which must be in play: he has to name them.


Pyrrho: That sort of post-sitting validation is obviously subjective and could not apply to a laboratory test. Sorry, but that's giving the medium the benefit of the doubt where none is justified.

Reply: Not if the follow-up information is unequivocal. It too is either right or wrong. There is no reason to expect communicators to give only information known to the sitter. If you have a dialogue with me or anyone, do you expect everything I say to you to be something you already know? Do we not learn from such dialogues about new information we did not have before? Whether this is permissible under lab protocols is another matter. If it is to be discarded then the information cannot count as a miss either. Its like saying just because Pyrrho didn't know it beforehand, anything I say to him is incorrect. You know this is fallacious.


P: A simple validated fact that is completely anecdotal. I don't want to delve into the problems of anecdotal evidence, but it just doesn't qualify as scientific evidence. It's satisfactory to you, but explains and means nothing more.

Reply: I never said it wasn't anecdotal. It was in fact highy anecdotal. It was given as an example which could also occur under controlled conditions where it would not be anecdotal.


P: Nothing official that the community of mediums cares to admit. Clearly some sort of schooling goes on -- mediums have clearly stated that they were taught by other mediums. The typical claim is that the medium discovered their "gifts" in childhood, and underwent profound insights upon meeting certain other mediums who were already practicing the craft.

Reply: Oh surfe. And there are hundreds, maybe thousands of books to self-educate on these matters. But no formal body of rules. I have read a bit on this myself and find many conflicting arguments or statements.


P: I wouldn't even have the sitter and the medium in the same building. The experimenter's team should be separated; member of the team interacting with the medium should have no interaction at all with the sitters, nor should the sitter's team have interaction with the medium. Neither team should know that a medium or sitter is even present at the time of the reading.

R: Agreed except I still do not know what medium's claima s being necessary for a reading. If it is merely intent then it needs to be added to the above formula.

P: I would eliminate post-sitting validations. Only those readings validated at the time of the sitting should qualify. I see no reason why the dead person could not provide answers that can be validated immediately. This is why I suggested that a restricted pool of information be used, instead of allowing "hits" on details not included in that pool, to be "validated" later.

Reply: If you disallow post sitting validation, you need to discard the informatin completely and not count it as a NO. As a matter of interest it could be counted as a DONT KNOW. Just assessing follow-up information can be a separate study by itself. It was for Arthur Berger's research. A restricted pool would eliminate hits that occur if an item is not on the list. If you do this, you must not count them as NOs whether they are incorrect or not.

P" IRC is not a valid communication method. Information about the sitter's locale can be deduced from IP addresses. Telephones don't make sense. If the sitter gives no feedback, the sitting should be able to be held at a specific time, the medium issues their reading, and the results examined, without need for real-world physical connection via telephone. Surely the dead are not restricted by real-world physics...

Reply: IRC is valid if the sitter and medium are sitting at PCs and internet connections which are not registered to them. Those of multi-center investigators come to mind. Sitter can be in a lab at Univ A and medium at Univ B. Randi suggested a silent telephone protocol for Sylvia Browne.

I do not know what kind of connection a medium needs for a sitter in order to make it work. It is not logical that mere intent and reading anyone, anywhere in the world could work which is what you are suggesting. I dont know the answer to this. In setting up an interface, if there is one, you need to be mindful of the medium's claims and not move the goalposts beyond those claims.


P: I haven't advanced guessing as an hypothesis. The test is to determine if a medium can receive communication from the dead. It's a yes or no question. If yes, the dead should be able to provide answers to binary questions. The need to calculate probabilities should be eliminated, in order to avoid any chance of statistical error or bias by the experimenter. With probabilities, statistics, etc, the potential exists for the medium to miss completely most of the time, but to score very high in terms of probability, given what the experimenter might conclude is a statistically significant "hit".

Reply: I have seen communicators answer very few questions; nor have I seen them take true or false tests administered through the agency of a medium. This demand may exceed the realities of their claims. I have seen skeptics advance the guessing hypothesis when they could not explain a reading based on cold reading & generalities, warm or hot reading. I did not suggest adding up the probabilities except where they occur as a constellation of yeses. I suggest probability calculation to validate or invalidate this hypothesis which always comes up. You should first and foremost base the assesment on the individual pieces of information and whether they are true or false. Guesing the name of my dead dog's brother which dates back to the 60s is not possible to guess. The odds are astronomical. Okay, it is anecdotal but we have seen similar validations under controlled conditions.

P: I included references to "Pointing at his chest," as an example of vague readings that should not be permitted in a laboratory setting. Performances are performances. When it comes down to testing the real deal, ambiguity cannot be allowed.


Reply: Good, so you point to examples also as I did above. I am glad to see we both feel we can advance examples without being discredited for doing so. I agree that vague symptomatology involving medical problems or cause of death are not valid. However, are they wrong? Sure pointing to the chest can be heart, lungs, lung cancer, COPD, chest trauma, pneumonia, asthma, overdose, geez, a host of things. Much too vague. One could not make a diagnosis on this but if it was, say, chest trauma or pneumonia, can one say it is wrong? So if you want to eliminate vagueries, do so but then dont count them as misses. You can't blame the communicator for not saying he died of metastatic adenocarcinoma affecting the right lower lobe and bronchus.
 
So, how many shovels would it take to get rid of all the BS Stevie spouts out?

It's just amazing how much garbage comes from paranormal apologists.
 
Steve,

The medium gets older male deceased. There is only one and that's father. There is no older brother, older male friend and
grandpa is still alive. Whats the tally? Very simple.
In JE speak "older male 'above'" means father, grandfather, uncle, or 'father-figure'. So "older male 'above'" is short hand - lets put it into 'long hand' :

"The Medium gets father, grandfather, uncle or 'father-figure' deceased."

There are three possible situations for any sitter given that above statement by a medium :

A. There is no dead father/uncle/grandfather/proxy
B. There is exactly one dead father/uncle/grandfather/proxy
C. There is more than 1 dead.

It appears that this all means :
"A" is a miss.
"B" is a hit.
"C" is what?

Lets not leave out the fact that "father figure' is a subjective call anyway. Could be a teacher they were close to? A sports coach that has guided them to success? A priest that was there for them in a time of stress? An older brother that 'took on the role' for a father in prison?

(Edited to add) Oops - side tracked myself with the "father figure" paragraph! I meant to add that I agree with Starrman. If we further expand the statement into it's full meaning we get :

"The Medium gets father deceased, or grandfather deceased, or uncle deceased, or 'father-figure' deceased."

So really "A" is 4 misses, "B" is 1 hit and 3 misses, and "C" is what?

And this is simple? Sorry Steve - seems to me that unless the medium specifically indicates the relationship (ie, father deceased) then the implied other guesses (uncle, etc) *must* count as misses - otherwise they're just "free hits" waiting to be collected.
 
Again, I have to interject here that preoccupation with JE and so-called platform mediumship is non-scientific and meaningless.

Is JE cold reading to establish identities? Yes. If you can get past this, what is he doing when he gets highly specific information from the communicator he has identified for a particular person in an audience of two hundred or, in seminars, several thousand?
 
SteveGrenard said:
Again, I have to interject here that preoccupation with JE and so-called platform mediumship is non-scientific and meaningless.

Is JE cold reading to establish identities? Yes. If you can get past this, what is he doing when he gets highly specific information from the communicator he has identified for a particular person in an audience of two hundred or, in seminars, several thousand?

But he doesn't. He never goes up to a specific person and says "Hey, Gramps Dudley from Nottingham, UK says that the will is in the 3rd drawer".

Give just one example of "highly specific information" that JE has ever come up with, without homing in on the sitter.

Just one.
 

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