Interesting JE Hits....

[Clancie]

AP,

What did you think of the issue of hot reading in Schwartz's experiments?

Ruled out--or not? :confused;

 

[Ipecac]

Clancie, you're right if you assume that I wouldn't be convinced if he had gotten the name of the grandpa. I'd need a lot more evidence than that before I make the leap to "JE is speaking to the dead."

However, the fact that he didn't get the name is suggestive that he's cold reading.

You said a couple of times that no woman you know has ever cut a tree down. How do you know this? Have you asked them? I certainly couldn't make that claim with any certainty.

Ipecac

 

[arcticpenguin]

AP,

What did you think of the issue of hot reading in Schwartz's experiments?

Ruled out--or not? :confused;

I haven't been following that closely. All I know is what I read in Ray Hyman's article, How not to test mediums in the Skeptical Inquirer, which I presume you have also read.

 

[dingler44]

Well, is he the best cold reader? Or is he a mediocre cold reader? I wish critics would make up their minds!

Please don't dodge the argument here.

IF JE was the best cold reader or IF JE was the best cold reader with available transcripts to analyze, neofight's request for "relative proof" in finding a better cold reader would be moot.

And quite disturbingly, neofight clings to her "relative proof" argument like it's some towering monument to logic. It's pathetic, really. It's equally sad that you try to defend it by ignoring the criticism it deserves.

 

[CFLarsen]

Okay, here they are. (An experiment gone awry, but here it is! Seriously, it'd be easier to go argue at the Politics forum. There just aren't enough "believers" on this board to help out with these kind of threads! "Learning the hard way!" )

Why has it gone "awry"? You posted a reading which you found "interesting". The reading was met with an impressive list from many people of very sound arguments that points to no other conclusion that this was a cold reading.

We don’t.

Then why is this ADC?

I think people are on better ground arguing cold reading.

Why? Is it not a distinct possibility that JE has done research on this?

The cigarettes in the coffin—and wrong brand--was, imo, better than either of these.

Then why didn't you post that, instead of this reading?

I’m curious why people think that the daughter's reaction meant JE was right? If the comment seemed ludicrous (which the daughter’s reaction indicated)…why pursue it? Why not say, “Is there a funny story about someone cutting down a tree?” Why emphasize (as he did the first time he said it through the end) the word YOU?

We have seen JE shift focus before, so we shouldn't accept this as evidence of anything.

Why is the daughter necessarily right? Because she validates what JE says?

To say he would have stretched it if it missed is pure speculation.

Perhaps. However, there are many previous examples of this. Are you saying it hasn't happened before?

But is it common for JE’s New York City audiences? I’ve never heard him ask it before, of male or female.

What makes you think the sitter lived on Manhattan? Even for a New Yorker, it is not that uncommon to have a garden with trees. I lived there, remember?

I don't think it would be common here in LA either.

That may be. This happened in New York, though.

I hear many people saying its commonplace to guess that a well dressed elderly woman had chopped down a tree sometime in her life. All I can say is….as a Los Angeleno all my life, I’ve never done it and never known any woman who’s done it. (I suppose, if nothing else, that will give some insight into why this struck me as “interesting” for JE to come up with this for her vs. someone else.)

Are you not aware that people change into garden clothes, when they chop down a tree? Do you really imagine that people chop down trees in their best dress?? That is just a silly argument, Clancie.

I think the daughter wouldn’t have been surprised then. I really think the “cold reading” argument is better than “hot reading” for this one, AP.

Who are now speculating? Why is it OK for you to speculate, but not others?

And about the grandfather’s name—JE didn’t give the name, but he mentioned it was grandfather’s (i.e. not any other family members’). Lucky guess, then? Sounds like that’s what most people here think.

So? Was this the only cup they had in the family?

I’m saying that it’s interesting that he narrowed it from the beginning more than many people give him credit for. He said, “YOU cut down the tree” rather than the more general (and safer) “There’s a funny story about someone cutting down a tree.”

BEEP! Wrong! He asked if it was the sitter who cut down the tree. We also know that he can shift focus, if necessary.

I can understand that, Brown and Mr. Skinny. Likewise, I’m sure you can understand why it surprised me, as I’ve never known any woman who cut down a tree (or JE ever addressing this possibility to someone before).

But you have to acknowledge that it is far from "unique" that a woman chops down a tree?

And given the woman's apparent age and frailty, it seemed an odd direction to guess.

Why? Do we know when this tree-chopping happened? It could have happened decades ago.

**Here’s a thought. If its so common, why doesn’t he use it more often? Why the one time he uses it, does it “fit”? (Okay, that’s rhetorical. I already know 10 of you are yelling, “EDITING”, lol)

Yes, you are right. Editing.

I know I am doing a poor job of explaining why “chalice” instead of “Kiddush cup” interested me so.

I have to admit that I am a bit surprised that you don't do better.

It has to do with being very consistent with how JE describes the “process” as being based on imagery that is within his personal frame of reference (i.e. the Christian chalice). But I understand that others (obviously) aren’t impressed!

If you can complain that New Yorkers don't fell trees, how would JE have "tree chopping" as his personal frame of reference? He has lived in New York all his life, right?

But I can address the second part (this relates to JE's “process” ). JE says he hears some information (clairaudience), feels some information (clairsentience), but mostly gets what he gets from seeing various images (clairvoyance), some which become familiar, recurrent symbols to him.

By which, he can conveniently switch between whatever opportunity that comes up, depending on the reply from the sitter. Classic cold reading, Clancie.

Well, Ipecac, would you have believed it if he’d gotten the name? I wouldn’t have been surprised if he had, but I also wouldn’t expect that to convince you of spirit communication. Would it have?

To me, it would certainly have qualified as a better hit. As it is, it is hardly a hit at all.

That’s what a chalice is, basically, a kiddush cup.

The usage is vastly different, as well as the symbolic meaning.

I don’t think this will change your view about this, Tracer, but just wanted to repeat that JE mentioned the engraved name before she validated the existence of a special cup. I don’t think he gave any indication that he thought she was Jewish. (They were non-descript ethnically--white, one elderly, one middle aged--as far as I was concerned, btw.)

Did you look at them, up close? No giveaways whatsoever? A New Yorker accent, a Star of David? Remember that JE is standing right in front of them, you merely look at them on a TV.

Can you completely rule out that JE did not know they were Jewish?

Well, is he the best cold reader? Or is he a mediocre cold reader? I wish critics would make up their minds!

He is a fast cold reader, which spurts out so many statements that something is bound to stick. He also has worked as a cold reader for 17 years, which gives him experience. However - and we can see this from the unedited transcripts of LKL - he is still bad. That should tell you something about how effective cold reading is.

Personally, I have read much better examples of meaningful validations from other mediums than what JE gives.

Unfortunately for you, you cannot use this argument. You have refused to let us see the transcript of your reading with Brian Hurst. You are therefore referring to data we cannot see.

The advantage of JE is that what he does is not hidden in a small séance room or in a private reading, but is out there for people to see and evaluate.

Yes, after heavy editing. He is still denying people tapes of his readings? What does that say for his willingness to let people "see and evaluate"?

There’s no doubt some people can be duped. That doesn’t mean that its necessarily false.

True. A lot of people here are NOT duped by JE. And it is always up to JE to prove he is a real medium. This, he refuses.

No, he specifically said he saw her doing it herself, not hiring someone.

No, he asked if she had done it herself. Big difference.

Actually, he’s said it doesn’t matter whether its radio, television, remote or in person.

So, all three appearances on LKL was just three "bad days"? You have to admit that JE did considerably worse on LKL than he does on CO.

You’re being facetious, right? Otherwise, it would certainly be interesting to know the probability of a hit by coincidence. The Sylvia Challenge purports to do that, but I don’t see any statistics to back it up.

And we most certainly don't see any statistics from you, or any other believer, that JE scores better than average. If you are so interesting in seeing this, why don't you do some work of your own?

Claus, you raised some other points, but unfortunately my “one response” is going to have to be taken up correcting your misrepresentation here.

Aha. You completely ignore my points. I can only assume that it is because you don't know how to answer them. As usual, I might say, but I won't...

You say, “I challenged Clancie to see if she could point out what was different from a cold-reading transcript and a JE-transcript. She could not”

Yet you and I both know I listed thirty 30 ! differences between that transcript and a JE reading (I’ve even added one or two since then in discussion here).

Just because you decided (to your own satisfaction, at least :rolleyes ) that “all (Clancie’s) points were invalid” is NOT the same as saying, as you do here “Clancie couldn’t point out what was different from a cold reading transcript and JE.”

Hey, I'm perfectly at ease with posting both transcripts, my comparison, your comparison and my walk-through of your comparison here. Do you think that would be a good idea, if this is so important to you?

I pointed out the differences, Claus. Thirty of them.

Sure, you did. They were just invalid, that's all.

Whatever. (I will agree that this thread was an experiment I’m not going to do again. In a way, that's one reason why).

I understand perfectly. The experiment backfired.

If Sylvia passed the Challenge Randi’s designed for her, people could say it was lucky guesswork. Its very poorly designed and no scientific journal would consider it worth anything as far as establishing the existence of mediumship.

Nobody (and you know this) has ever claimed that the Challenge is scientific, Clancie. You are building a strawman here.

It is interesting that you focus on Sylvia and the Challenge, when you perfectly know that JE has flatly refused to take the Challenge. Why is this not more a concern to you?

Probably so. But…why not? With 3000 people, most of them desperately hoping to hear from at least one loved one and many big fans that expect JE to produce big results for them…why not try and lower the expectation level a bit?

When dealing with the public, it just makes sense. (Plus its true—there are great readings and poor ones.)

It makes much more sense if he is cold reading. He knows he will bomb, and warns his audience of this. And they suck it up....

Neo, is that really you? A JE believer? Its getting mighty lonely here, lol.

It's not a question of loneliness. It's a question of you having a very hard time arguing the validity of a reading you yourself chose.

A very important fact about PrimeTime is that many of the participants have publicly posted about their experiences and were absolutely convinced that Ian was a cold reader the entire time.

Where did they do this? Please point to where this happened.

PT had a thirty minute follow up discussion with everyone afterwards and showed not a single criticism! Even JE does better job of showing the people who don’t think he’s “for real” than they did. There was no balance at all, and many participants were very angry that their viewpoints weren’t expressed—in fact, that they were all made to look as if they’d been taken in.

This is completely wrong. JE never meets his critics, he doesn't even want his fans to listen to critics. I don't see that many skeptics on CO.

Yet, Loki, isn’t this Randi’s premise in the Sylvia Challenge? That beating the expected average will prove mediumship?

No, it will prove that Sylvia can pass the Challenge, that's all. Proof is something entirely different.

Re: your question. Actually, he’s said just the opposite, that physical distance, phone connection or live, etc. makes absolutely no difference.

Then we should accept that his performance on LKL is on par with how he performs on a regular basis. This raises the question how he can do so well on CO, if the readings are NOT edited.

I don’t think anyone’s ever asked him about his feelings about the hits/misses on LKL readings specifically, though.

You know he doesn't listen to his critics.

And when you say its cold reading because out of the volume of guesses some will be right? Is that actually considered part of cold reading? (a question, not a challenge. I’m not sure).

Yes, and you should know it, too, if you were so knowledgable of cold reading as you claim to be.

That's it! For better or worse, an experiment gone awry, but there it is!

I would love to hear why you think this has gone "awry". What were your intentions with this thread?

 

[Lord Kenneth]

As for tree-chopping, did the woman live on a farm?

 

[Lord Kenneth]

As for tree-chopping, did the woman live on a farm?

 

[Instig8R]

I hear many people saying its commonplace to guess that a well dressed elderly woman had chopped down a tree sometime in her life. All I can say is….as a Los Angeleno all my life, I’ve never done it and never known any woman who’s done it. (I suppose, if nothing else, that will give some insight into why this struck me as “interesting” for JE to come up with this for her vs. someone else.)



Clancie, I think that this "hit" seems unusual to you because of certain regional differences between New York and California.

I'd like to point out that not all trees are Giant Redwoods like the ones out in your neck of the woods! Here in New York, we have many large trees, like mighty Oaks and Maples. However, many of us plant smaller trees on our properties, too. We have dogwood trees, japanese dogwood trees, hemlocks, etc. You don't need to be a lumberjack to take down one of these puppies! After all, wasn't George Washington a child when he allegedly chopped down the Cherry Tree?

I do not like gardening, so I hire a landscaper. However, imo, the fee for removing small trees is exhorbitant. Therefore, I have personally resorted to chopping down trees myself in the past. One was a hemlock, and the other looked like a Christmas tree. Neither was very large, and I didn't remove them all at once. At the present time, I am in the process of removing another hemlock tree that died. Like the other trees, I remove different sections of it every few days, and then will dig up the roots.

Tree removal is not necessarily the monumental task that you imagine it to be. As for the tree that I am currently cutting down, it's about 15 feet tall, and the diameter of the widest branch (or trunk) is no more than 5 inches. No big deal, honestly!

I hope this puts the tree issue in perspective for you.

 

[renata]

Clancie, I think that this "hit" seems unusual to you because of certain regional differences between New York and California.

I'd like to point out that not all trees are Giant Redwoods like the ones out in your neck of the woods! Here in New York, we have many large trees, like mighty Oaks and Maples. However, many of us plant smaller trees on our properties, too. We have dogwood trees, japanese dogwood trees, hemlocks, etc. You don't need to be a lumberjack to take down one of these puppies! After all, wasn't George Washington a child when he allegedly chopped down the Cherry Tree?

I want to agree that here there are very few trees like in New York. We have lots of Palms, but few decidious trees, it is too hot and not enough water for them to exist. Most homes, if they have any trees have orange or plum trees. This area is half desert and half orange groves.

Also, someone mentioned it was strange that an older woman was the one who was asked about cutting down a tree. Actualy, an older woman would be more likely to have done that earlier in her life than a younger woman now. People were more self sufficient, women had less help, and were more likely to do things themselves, unless they were wealthy enough to afford help.

 

[Loki]

Clancie,

Well, is he the best cold reader? Or is he a mediocre cold reader? I wish critics would make up their minds!

I understand your frustration here, since JE is often accused of both being "a cold-reader who produces the hits" and "not a very good cold-reader". My personal opinion - he's either a very good cold-reader, or a cold-reader who cheats (editing, hot reading, etc) to 'suppliment' his hit tally.

But the point remains that rating hits/misses to establish a JE "hit percentage" would, at best, simply allow us to rate him against cold-readers. It might be good to do this, to establish once and for all that he is either "in the middle of the pack" or "in a league of his own", but it still wouldn't address the real issue - is it cold-reading or something else. Anyway, I see the problem here as finding suitable comparisons - what cold-reader has the same experience level as JE?

Yet, Loki, isn’t this Randi’s premise in the Sylvia Challenge? That beating the expected average will prove mediumship?

Clancie, if Sylvia beats the JREF challenge, I will walk naked through downtown New York singing "John Edward I want to marry you"! I will also be forced to seriously reappraise my current position on ADC.

But to answer your question, no! The JREF challenge is not about proving a phenomenon is true/valid. It's about establishing that "something" happened that could not be described using mundane terms. The day Sylvia passes the JREF test four things will happen (a) James Randi will reluctantly hand over 1 million dollars to an unbearably smug Sylvia Browne; (b) Randi (and associates) will being reveiwing their protocol to try and see if it was flawed; (c) a major step forward in establishing the existence of mediumship will have occurred; (d) I'll be arrested by the NYPD for exposing myself in the streets. What won't happen is that mediumship will have been proven true.

 

[CFLarsen]

Clancie, if Sylvia beats the JREF challenge, I will walk naked through downtown New York singing "John Edward I want to marry you"!

Nobody will take any notice. It's New York, dummy!

 

[Loki]

Claus,

(Originally posted by Clancie) : It has to do with being very consistent with how JE describes the “process” as being based on imagery that is within his personal frame of reference (i.e. the Christian chalice). But I understand that others (obviously) aren’t impressed!

(Originally posted by CFLarsen) : If you can complain that New Yorkers don't fell trees, how would JE have "tree chopping" as his personal frame of reference? He has lived in New York all his life, right?

I know you feel the need to argue *every single* point with Neofight and Clancie, but surely you're reaching here? How would JE have "tree chopping" as an image in his frame of reference, given that he's from New York? What, you think that the phrase "tree chopping" has no meaning to New Yorkers? If I randomly stop a New Yorker in the street and show them a picture (perhaps a short video) of a woman chopping down a tree they'll say "gee...what's going on there! What is that woman doing???". New Yorkers don't fell trees (as a general rule). New Yorkers *do* know what felling a tree looks like.

 

[tracer]

I think it is a monumental testament to the self-control of all involved with this thread that nobody has yet mentioned Stan Marsh's channeling performance in "John Edwards is the Biggest Douche in the Universe" episode of South Park.

 

[Loki]

Claus,

Nobody will take any notice. It's New York, dummy!

Did I forget to mention I'll be heavily armed with a variety of large caliber weapons? The "JE I love you" line is just a ploy to get him to come within firing range.

 

[Instig8R]

Nobody will take any notice. It's New York, dummy!

LOL, CFLarsen! How true! Did you ever see the "Naked Cowboy" who roams Times Square near the TKTS Booth? He strolls around, wearing his cowboy hat, boots and jockey shorts, playing his guitar. (I didn't notice him until my Long Island friends called my attention to him! I haven't lived in NYC for years, but I guess I still behave like a native NYer!)

 

[CFLarsen]

I know you feel the need to argue *every single* point with Neofight and Clancie,

All links in the chain has to be strong enough to hold the whole chain together!

but surely you're reaching here? How would JE have "tree chopping" as an image in his frame of reference, given that he's from New York? What, you think that the phrase "tree chopping" has no meaning to New Yorkers? If I randomly stop a New Yorker in the street and show them a picture (perhaps a short video) of a woman chopping down a tree they'll say "gee...what's going on there! What is that woman doing???". New Yorkers don't fell trees (as a general rule). New Yorkers *do* know what felling a tree looks like.

In which case, there would probably be NO limit to JE's frame of reference, right? After all, he does live in NY, where people from all over the world live.

No, I'm not reaching.

 

[CFLarsen]

Did I forget to mention I'll be heavily armed with a variety of large caliber weapons? The "JE I love you" line is just a ploy to get him to come within firing range.

Yes, you forgot. However, brandishing a gun in New York these days is definitely a bad idea!

Definitely!

 

[CFLarsen]

LOL, CFLarsen! How true! Did you ever see the "Naked Cowboy" who roams Times Square near the TKTS Booth? He strolls around, wearing his cowboy hat, boots and jockey shorts, playing his guitar. (I didn't notice him until my Long Island friends called my attention to him! I haven't lived in NYC for years, but I guess I still behave like a native NYer!)

(That was me....shhhhhh!!!!)

 

[Instig8R]

(That was me....shhhhhh!!!!)

Woof!

 

[renata]

Woof!

Get a room, you two!