Intelligent Design vs. BaseBall Bat

[Taffer]

That's not random. We already know what causes mutations and how the rate of mutation changes. Sorry, you lose.

Actually, I think you'll find that is exactly what "random" means. In the case we are discussing, "random" means unable to be predicted. Can you predict mutations? No? Didn't think so.

 

[dann]

What possible agenda could you people have in maintaining the belief that mutations are random ?

Dawkins' famous definition:

Life results from the non-random survival of randomly varying replicators.

 

[delphi_ote]

Can you predict mutations?

If we had all of the necessary data and time, yes. We could predict mutations with some accuracy.

 

[Taffer]

If we had all of the necessary data and time, yes. We could predict mutations with some accuracy.

I know that, I am speak of 'now'. As in, can we, given current tech, predict mutations? The answer is, of course, "no". Once we do posess the ability to accurately predict mutation events, then it will no longer be random.

 

[delphi_ote]

I know that, I am speak of 'now'. As in, can we, given current tech, predict mutations? The answer is, of course, "no". Once we do posess the ability to accurately predict mutation events, then it will no longer be random.

Are all of the gravitational forces acting on me right now random?

 

[c4ts]

Do the conditions affect the exact type of mutation?

 

[Taffer]

Are all of the gravitational forces acting on me right now random?

No, but they are constant. What I've been saying is that random (rather then 'truely' random) simply means we are unable to predict either an event or an outcome. It does not mean it can't be predicted.

 

[Bronze Dog]

Might want to rephrase that a bit, Taffer.

 

[delphi_ote]

No, but they are constant. What I've been saying is that random (rather then 'truely' random) simply means we are unable to predict either an event or an outcome. It does not mean it can't be predicted.

The gravitational force of pluto acting on me is constant? The gravitational force of pluto on me is as "random" as a mutation by your definition. Yet we have all of the necessary equations of motion and chemistry to predict either one.

If you'll agree that neither one is random at all I'll agree that both are totally random. It just depends what I'm observing and what I know.

 

[Taffer]

The gravitational force of pluto acting on me is constant? The gravitational force of pluto on me is as "random" as a mutation by your definition. Yet we have all of the necessary equations of motion and chemistry to predict either one.

If you'll agree that neither one is random at all I'll agree that both are totally random. It just depends what I'm observing and what I know.

We can predict the gravitational effects on you from pluto. We cannot predict which mutation will occur, and where. This is the difference.

 

[delphi_ote]

We can predict the gravitational effects on you from pluto. We cannot predict which mutation will occur, and where. This is the difference.

That is not true. We can not calculate the gravitational force of Pluto on me with absolute precision. We'd have to know Pluto's precise orbit, mass, the Earth's current location, my current location on Earth, where my current center of mass is... there is no way we can calculate all of those things with precision. We can average the effects by treating the smaller perturbations as random noise... but then we just used the "R" word.

Mutation is exactly the same.

 

[Taffer]

That is not true. We can not calculate the gravitational force of Pluto on me with absolute precision. We'd have to know Pluto's precise orbit, mass, the Earth's current location, my current location on Earth, where my current center of mass is... there is no way we can calculate all of those things with precision. We can average the effects by treating the smaller perturbations as random noise... but then we just used the "R" word.

Mutation is exactly the same.

*Sigh*

We cannot predict mutations, given our current understand or technology. "Random" means unable to be predicted. Thus mutations are random. In this sense, yes, I suppose the gravity from pluto is random, since we do not have the knowledge or technology to predict its exact effect upon you.

ETA: I think I see what you are getting at. You are right, mutations are not "random" in the same way, for example, individual radiation events are (or at least, appear to be). But they are random in the sense that we cannot predict them. So Pluto's gravitational effect upon you would indeed appear to be random.