Information on Protocol for Pavel Ziborov Applicant

[Pixel42]

If JREF is unwilling to test it, they should not have accepted your claim. They are in the wrong, and I think you should pursue action against them.

They haven't accepted his claim. AIUI (and a quick check of the application form seem to confirm my understanding) an applicant becomes a claimant only when a test protocol has been agreed, at which point JR signs the application form and returns it. As it has proved impossible to agree such a protocol, Pavel's application has effectively been rejected as untestable.

You may think JREF gave up too soon, and I regret the way this application has ended myself, but I can't see how he has any case for action.

 

[IXP]

They haven't accepted his claim. AIUI (and a quick check of the application form seem to confirm my understanding) an applicant becomes a claimant only when a test protocol has been agreed, at which point JR signs the application form and returns it. As it has proved impossible to agree such a protocol, Pavel's application has effectively been rejected as untestable.

You may think JREF gave up too soon, and I regret the way this application has ended myself, but I can't see how he has any case for action.

I didn't say he had reached the status of "claimant". They accecpted his claim, which was stated in his application as being appropriate for the Challenge. If they believed it was infeasible to test, they should not have accepted the application.

It only proved impossible to reach a protocol because the JREF imposed a limit on the number of trials which was too low to test the ability as stated in the application. JREF's proposed test would only give Pavel a 25% chance of passing if he indeed had the ability he claims. A test with 100 trials is not unreasonable. If JREF believes it is, they should state this up front.

I have been a big fan of Randi and the JREF until now. Every other claim of unfair treatment was unfounded, but Pavel's is justified. He did everything right and even negotiated a workable protocol with a JREF representative, only to have it summarily rejected by Randi. All the woos that have claimed the test was a fraud now have a case that a reasonable person would agree with. I think he should sue JREF for a chance to prove his claim.

IXP

 

[steenkh]

I didn't say he had reached the status of "claimant". They accecpted his claim, which was stated in his application as being appropriate for the Challenge. If they believed it was infeasible to test, they should not have accepted the application.

You are talking about legal action: can you, or preferably Pavel, present a contract that has been signed by a JREF representative?

He did everything right and even negotiated a workable protocol with a JREF representative, only to have it summarily rejected by Randi.

Have you not followed the long history of negotiation with JREF? Pavel did not do everything right (but better than most), and he certainly did not have a workable protocol in place when he was rejected. On the contrary, just when negotiations seemed to reach a result, he wanted to present a new protocol and start all over again.

 

[fls]

Last thing its in JREF own power to let some one really show what he claim he is capable to do or dismiss and refuse him/her and doesn't matter how accurate and real claim is.. and they will do it until they decide other wise and I guess they have there own reasons for it that unknown to the public.

I doubt that it is anything sinister, but rather pragmatic. It is in the JREF's best interest to hold some preliminary tests. It gives the appearance that they are acting in good faith, and it gives them some failed tests to refer to when performing the Education component of their mandate. I have no knowledge of the inner workings of the JREF, but it is my impression that they are more concerned with education than they are with testing, at this point. And I personally think that this is reasonable. It is fairly clear by now that holding Challenge tests is not the way to go about discovering people with true paranormal abilities. The purpose of the testing is now educational - to demonstrate to others the powerful effect of expectation and how blinding influences this sensation, to demonstrate the practical aspects of setting up a test, to enhance the recognition of the JREF through entertainment, etc. So rather than testing all comers, the Challenge applicants serve as a pool from which to draw subjects for the purpose of education. Pavel, I think that you simply weren't needed. The JREF has already done several tests this year, some in quite public venues, and your test was likely to give them a poor return for their effort (it wouldn't be public, they would assume that you would fail, they already have the appearance of acting in good faith as they recently completed a test with Connie Sonne). I don't think this is deliberate. I think it simply sets up a situation where Randi has a very low threshold for abandoning a test. If there had been no promising Challenge applicant for 6 months or a year, if the test was entertaining or weird, if there had been some celebrity attached to you, I think Randi's threshold would have been higher and he would have had a little more patience with your protocol.

Linda

 

[pavel_do]

I didn't say he had reached the status of "claimant". They accepted his claim, which was stated in his application as being appropriate for the Challenge. If they believed it was infeasible to test, they should not have accepted the application.

It only proved impossible to reach a protocol because the JREF imposed a limit on the number of trials which was too low to test the ability as stated in the application. JREF's proposed test would only give Pavel a 25% chance of passing if he indeed had the ability he claims. A test with 100 trials is not unreasonable. If JREF believes it is, they should state this up front.

I have been a big fan of Randi and the JREF until now. Every other claim of unfair treatment was unfounded, but Pavel's is justified. He did everything right and even negotiated a workable protocol with a JREF representative, only to have it summarily rejected by Randi. All the woos that have claimed the test was a fraud now have a case that a reasonable person would agree with. I think he should sue JREF for a chance to prove his claim.

IXP

Thank you very much IXP, you can see my point.
Sue JREF as you can see now I guess and from Steenkh post.. "You are talking about legal action: can you, or preferably Pavel, present a contract that has been signed by a JREF representative?" its not that easy, they protected very much I think they though of any possible outcome. So officially we had sort of negotiation BUT we have no signed contract.. I mean they have an application signed by ME as any other applicants but I don't have anything from them that been signed... very smart for them.

Have you not followed the long history of negotiation with JREF? Pavel did not do everything right (but better than most), and he certainly did not have a workable protocol in place when he was rejected. On the contrary, just when negotiations seemed to reach a result, he wanted to present a new protocol and start all over again.

Steenkh, I am sorry I might misunderstand you but.. Do you mean ME by... “just when negotiations seemed to reach a result, he wanted to present a new protocol and start all over again.”?
As I didn't want to present any new protocols since we discussed 100 pairs one for past 8 months at least... and I had no intentions to start anything all over again!
And why "and he certainly did not have a workable protocol in place when he was rejected. ??
I had a workable protocol in place when I was rejected! And JREF have discussed it with me for passed 8 month as I said and most of THEIR wimps (using Randis;s language) I have satisfied accept the last one, to cut it to 20 trials test! They didn't even reasoned it out, their reason sort of “too
complicated” I guess its not very good reason to reject when we talking about 1.000.000$ on stake..

 

[GzuzKryzt]

Pavel:

1. You feel treated unfairly, unjustly or even fraudulently.

2. You do not agree that the JREF abandoned the 100 trial protocol when it worked for them all the time before.

3. You are ready to go now.

Correct me, if I am wrong on any of those points and please answer the following question:

Will you ask the JREF to re-open your file?

 

[pavel_do]

I doubt that it is anything sinister, but rather pragmatic....

Linda

Thank you very much Linda, you have a great point and I guess that is sort of “excuse” for JREF there educational purpose etc.. BUT I think...its unfair the way they play there games! As they PRESENT them self as FAIR challenge, giving EVERYONE equal opportunity to be tested and prove there claims, ( as suppose they looking for any real prove that it is possible and exist). In reality.. let say my case.. if some one come to JREF forums and read my “Applicants page” by the way its end, everyone who would not have time or would see the other forum threads like this one.. they will assume that YE.. the guy is just one of them.. fakes who just didn't wanted to be tested..and refused many of JREFs offers and chances...
That way they are Ridiculing me in a way, and misrepresent the facts as it was in reality!
They not letting me post any notes in that thread, other wise the letter that I have posted on forum after there threat to close file if I don't agree to 20 trial.. I would post it in THAT thread so who ever read it will be able to see what happened in reality.
Just as you say, I wasn't needed by JREF cause for INTERTAINING and PROMOTIONAL purposes they need clearly some ridicules claims and tests where claimant will fail 100%!
If only I would say OK 20 trails agreed! They would find time and place and effort to show all the world another fail for “educational” purposes.. In the same time one more time, “shout” everywhere that NOTHING PARANORMAL EXISTS as they never seen any.. ( obviously they didnt, as they don't want to see it in fact) that is not acting in Good faith, at least some people now can see it!

 

[pavel_do]

Pavel:

1. You feel treated unfairly, unjustly or even fraudulently.

2. You do not agree that the JREF abandoned the 100 trial protocol when it worked for them all the time before.

3. You are ready to go now.

Correct me, if I am wrong on any of those points and please answer the following question:

Will you ask the JREF to re-open your file?

1. YES

2. YES

3. YES

Obviously!Its is clear and its not what I feel, that the fact!


I am going to write a letter to JREF and will post it here too and lets see what they will reply if they reply at all.. as so far as you can see they said NOTHING at all a part of post about “giving me last chance” and closing the file.

 

[pavel_do]

*waves*
I'd certainly welcome Pavel into this club.

I am flattered But sorry guys in my life I witnesed more than enough evidence that paranormal EXIST! And I ( my gift) is one of the prove.

 

[GzuzKryzt]

1. YES

2. YES

3. YES

Obviously!Its is clear and its not what I feel, that the fact!


I am going to write a letter to JREF and will post it here too and lets see what they will reply if they reply at all.. as so far as you can see they said NOTHING at all a part of post about “giving me last chance” and closing the file.

Great.

You do remember the JREF will not agree to a test longer than eight hours, right? Will you sign an agreement with the JREF that you can do 100 trials successfully in less than eight hours, without feeling rushed or something like that?

 

[GzuzKryzt]

1. YES

2. YES

3. YES

Obviously!Its is clear and its not what I feel, that the fact!
...

Do you really consider it a fact that the JREF acted fraudulently in your case?

 

[pakeha]

I am flattered But sorry guys in my life I witnesed more than enough evidence that paranormal EXIST! And I ( my gift) is one of the prove.

Be patient and persistent, then.
GzuzKryzt is giving you advise and orientation which seems quite prudent.
In any case, have you considered hammering out a protocol with any other investigative group? (sorry if this idea has been discussed before)

 

[chillzero]

I am flattered But sorry guys in my life I witnesed more than enough evidence that paranormal EXIST! And I ( my gift) is one of the prove.

Well I used to say that too about my psychic ability and my healing 'powers'.


I applaud your efforts to get to a point of testing though, and please remember, if you ever get to that really horrible and difficult place where your beliefs become shaken by a new understanding of certain things (such as confirmation bias, cold reading, etc) - please remember that there are some here who will support you through that too.

I am watching your application with interest.

 

[Cuddles]

I'm somewhat torn here. On the one hand, it does seem that Pavel's application has been rejected rather suddenly and unfairly, at a point where he was genuinely trying to negotiate and delays were due almost entirely to the JREF themselves. In addition, it appears to be due solely to a quick decision by Randi who has not been involved in the negotiation at all and presumably knows very little of the details. Indeed, I'm not even sure why Randi would be involved at all. While the challenge may have started as a personal one by him, it is now a challenge by the JREF foundation, and Randi is no longer in charge, Phil Plait is. Certainly Randi would be a valuable advisor, but I don't see why he has the power to overrule months, or even years, of negotiation, with apparently little thought put in to the statistics and their relevance to the claim.

On the other hand, the history makes it clear that the blame cannot be laid entirely at the JREF's door. The first thread discussing Pavel's claims was started in May 2007. That's over 2 years and 3 months ago. I'm not sure exactly when he applied for the challenge, but he was certainly involved in protocol negotiations by June 2008, 1 year and 2 months ago. By the end of August 2008, Jeff Wagg was already ready to throw in the towel due to the constant changes and complications added by Pavel to the test, as well as the apparent lack of knowledge of what he can actually do. In fact, even now he still cannot clearly state what he thinks his success rate actually is:

I don't believe.. I can tell you from my tests (whether some one believe in it or not) I have about 70% some times a bit more some times a bit less, though some times as I said I "guess" 9 photos right out of ten but I cant say I have 90% success rate. S So the 70% figure of success rate its comes out if I sum up the results and will not make this conclusion on 1-2 tests. I can see where is your number 67% come from.. well I claim 67 correct photos out of 100 just because that the minimum I can claim in order to enter preliminary test as 67 correct will cover 1000 odds demanded by JREF as minimum...

It might be 70% or 90% or 67%, except when it might be something else.

It's also interesting to look over how the claims have changed. The original claim that brought him to forum members' attention was Zener cards. In one of his first posts here he specifically said that coloured Zener cards were easier than photos. A year later, it turns out that actually photos are easier for him than Zener cards.

Then there's the time required, which appears to have been one of the major problems for the JREF. We go from:

it take from 10 second to 2 minutes..

to needing 8 hours for 100 sets. Even assuming the maximum time for every set, allowing for a short time between each one and maybe a break at some point, I'm struggling to see how this could take more than 4 hours.

In the end, it all comes back to what Jeff Wagg said, almost a year before this application was actually shut down:

This protocol has been going on forever. It seems like Pavel keeps trying things and then failing, and people are trying to modify the test so that he has a chance of winning. This is NOT what the challenge is about. The claimant should have a clear claim and confidence that he can accomplish what he claims before he applies.

When someone applies for the challenge, they need to say exactly what they can do, under what conditions, and with what success rate. Over two years after coming to this forum, Pavel still has not managed any of those. He probably has a success rate somewhere between 70-90% that varies depending on how he feels and what point of the test he is, that may or may not be affected by stress and that is either better with Zener cards or photos. This is not the point an application should be at after 2 years of negotiation. This is not the point an application should be at before it's sent to the JREF in the first place.

Sure, Pavel is much friendlier and more coherent than most applicants, but that does not excuse the fact that he simply hasn't done what he was required to do. It's a shame how it has ended, and I think it reflects badly on the JREF that the rejection came after months of delay on their part, and at a point where it appeared the negotiations were finally getting somewhere. However, have a look at the last paragraph of the same post by Jeff Wagg quoted above:

The JREF will accept one more full protocol from Pavel (with Startz's kind help, if he's willing) and then we will move on to another candidate.

That was last August. Can anyone really argue that Pavel has been treated unfairly when he was only rejected year after he was given a final chance?

 

[Startz]

That was last August. Can anyone really argue that Pavel has been treated unfairly when he was only rejected year after he was given a final chance?

It might be useful for Alison to post a chronology or even the complete correspondence.

I have incomplete records, but here's what I have. A part of the delay was waiting for an independent statistician to render an opinion. This took a while because the person I asked to look at the protocol is a volunteer who has many other duties. I wanted it to be this specific person because he has a great deal of familiarity with the Challenge.

Following this, my records show that the protocol was submitted last Nov. 6. JREF responded with their revision on January 12. There followed a brief correspondence over issues such as what kind of table Pavel would sit at and whether he could have a bottle of water. The were complete by January 13 and the protocol was posted on the forum by JREF.

Pavel heard back from JREF on May 14. There was a very brief discussion, the details of which I have lost, but my memory is that there were no important changes. JREF staff posted on June 11 that they had forwarded a revised protocol for review. JREF responded on August 20.

As I said, JREF might have more complete records of the correspondence than I do. They've always said that such correspondence can be made public if JREF wishes. Perhaps that would be useful here.

But even with my incomplete records, I'm confident that the bulk of the delays in the last year have been at JREF's end. The one signficant recent delay was from seeking outside statistical verification, which was my decision, not Pavel's (which JREF was notified about.) I also confident that formal protocol negotiations in the past year have been a handful of emails.

 

[Rodney]

In fact, even now he still cannot clearly state what he thinks his success rate actually is: It might be 70% or 90% or 67%, except when it might be something else.

Sort of like Tiger Woods' driving in a round of golf: He might hit the fairways 70% of the time, or 90%, or 67%, or something else. So, it's a good thing the JREF doesn't sponsor the "Golf Driving Challenge" -- Woods wouldn't qualify to be tested.

 

[GzuzKryzt]

Sort of like Tiger Woods' driving in a round of golf: He might hit the fairways 70% of the time, or 90%, or 67%, or something else. So, it's a good thing the JREF doesn't sponsor the "Golf Driving Challenge" -- Woods wouldn't qualify to be tested.

I don't think that's a valid comparison.

Alas, Woods could do his thing - whatever it might be - on any pro course in the world, right? He need not feel bound to perform on one course only.

 

[GzuzKryzt]

Picking up on the golf analogy, it seems we're spectators who did not see the entire game. We saw a tee here, a drive there, and that was pretty much it.

Unless we get to see more of the game, I feel hesitant to draw a conclusion, except: Why would a pro bother with hacks on the training range?

 

[steenkh]

Sort of like Tiger Woods' driving in a round of golf: He might hit the fairways 70% of the time, or 90%, or 67%, or something else. So, it's a good thing the JREF doesn't sponsor the "Golf Driving Challenge" -- Woods wouldn't qualify to be tested.

So if Woods wanted to qualify for the Gold Driving Challenge, what do you think he would state as his rate of success?

 

[Cuddles]

Sort of like Tiger Woods' driving in a round of golf

No, not actually like that at all. The point of stating the success rate is that you're supposed to say what you're confident you can actually do. Since I know very little about golf, let's go with running instead. I can run 10km. I've done it several times and I'm pretty sure I can do it again. Now, how fast can I do it? Well, I can easily run it in under 50 minutes without even doing any training. If I put in a bit of effort and have a good day I can probably manage under 40 minutes. On the other hand if it's a hard course and I'm not feeling great even an hour might be a struggle.

So what do I say if I want the JREF to test my ability to run? 60 minutes. Because I know that it would be very unlikely for me to fail. I don't say that it might be 40 minutes, because it's quite likely I'll fail. I don't say 50 minutes because even though I'd be fairly confident, there's not much room for having a bad day. I certainly don't dither around for 2 years without ever actually giving a solid time I think I can run it in.

It would of course be open to negotiation. If the JREF says that they don't think 60 minutes would be paranormal but 55 minutes would be, then I'd happily agree to that instead. There's not as big a margin for error, but I still know that I've beaten that time plenty of times before and would happily try to do so again for a million dollars. On the other hand, if the JREF say that they'll only accept a time under 30 minutes, I simply wouldn't do it, since even though I may be able to with some effort, I've never done it before.

You see how simple this is? Well, of course you don't, but hopefully the more sensible people do. It doesn't matter that paranormal abilities aren't perfect all the time, it should still be just as easy to know what you can do and how reliably as any mundane ability. Knowing how reliable your ability is is just about the most important aspect of a claim after being able to state what you can actually do. It's just not good enough to spend years trying to get someone to test you and still not have any idea.

In fact, it's even worse than that, since Pavel not only doesn't know how reliable his ability is, as far as I can tell he hasn't even tried to work it out. All the numbers I've seen have been taken from a few self-tests that were trying to work out how to get the best results. The 67% he seems to have settled on was simply mentioned as the average of all those tests, including several where he clearly couldn't do anything at all, and he's just picked it up from there. 70% isn't what he thinks he can do, it's simply the cumulative success rate from four or five tests that were so different in protocol that the results aren't really comparable between them at all. That's like me claiming to run 10km in under 40 minutes based on my results in a couple of 2km runs, a bike ride and a sack race.