Indyref 2: This time it's personal.

Looks like Indyref 2 moved a step closer yesterday with the insistence of the Attorney General that all of the UK would be leaving the EU whether they like it or not and that there would be no veto for individual nations.

Which was the expected response anyway.
 
Then it probably didn't move a step closer. Best measure of likelihood is still the likely strength of yes vote IMO. But "highly likely" (which she has not advanced upon) gives Sturgeon plenty of wiggle room
 
Francesca R said:
Then it probably didn't move a step closer.
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Well we have to go through the theatre of 'exploring other options' before we admit there aren't any. In that respect every time we get the expected response we are a step closer to another Indyref.

And every time a Tory gives Scotland an 'up yours' message the support for independence grows a little bit.
 
I'm not interested in another referendum for a few years yet. What they really need to work on is a consensus agreement within the EU that can get them to pre approve Scotland's fastrack back into the EU in the event of a Yes vote. Solve the currency issue in the meantime, try and assuage the pensioners that their pensions are not going to be eaten by flying pink unicorns and that should just about turn the tide.

4 more years of the current PM and Cabinet will just be the icing on the cake.
 
Archie Gemmill Goal said:
Well we have to go through the theatre of 'exploring other options' before we admit there aren't any.
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That's what employers say they do before they make someone redundant, but no exporation is done because nobody is interested in exploring anything. It isn't the reason for any delay in indyref2 any more than it keeps anyone employed more than a few minutes after the decision to let them go.

The ball's in Sturgeon's court as far as I am aware, and her calculus has items which move it further away not closer in my view: (i) that May would not allow Parliament to authorise indyref2, making it a "bastard" referendum, (ii) oil revenue will have halved just like the Yes campaign said it wouldn't and (iii) as above I do not believe Sturgeon would copy Salmond's default-threat-if-no-currency-union gambit.

She also needs some comfort about fast track EU membership and it might have to be given publicly to be credible (rather than "trust me").

I think polls moving further to yes are the only steps closer right now.
 
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funk de fino said:
I'm not interested in another referendum for a few years yet. What they really need to work on is a consensus agreement within the EU that can get them to pre approve Scotland's fastrack back into the EU in the event of a Yes vote. Solve the currency issue in the meantime, try and assuage the pensioners that their pensions are not going to be eaten by flying pink unicorns and that should just about turn the tide.

4 more years of the current PM and Cabinet will just be the icing on the cake.
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I think they know that the EU will be unable to guarantee anything prior to a Indy vote and that the best chance of making the case is never to leave in the first place.

Any new referendum would need to be done ASAP so that negotiations can begin with the EU while Scotland remains inside.
 
Francesca R said:
That's what employers say they do before they make someone redundant, but no exporation is done because nobody is interested in exploring anything. It isn't the reason for any delay in indyref2 any more than it keeps anyone employed more than a few minutes after the decision to let them go.
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But the process still has to be gone through. There can't be any argument that 'we could stay in the EU if...' left because we know that the No campaign will make promises they have no intention of keeping as they did before. It's important that red herrings are taken off the table and the idea that Scotland can stay in the EU while being part of the UK is exactly that.

The ball's in Sturgeon's court as far as I am aware, and her calculus has items which move it further away not closer in my view: (i) that May would not allow Parliament to authorise indyref2, making it a "bastard" referendum, (ii) oil revenue will have halved just like the Yes campaign said it wouldn't and (iii) as above I do not believe Sturgeon would copy Salmond's default-threat-if-no-currency-union gambit.
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i) May has not said this. If she did it might well make a vote for independence more likely
ii) Yep. Although Brexit has made the economic balance more even again in that respect.
iii) Yawn. Still peddling the defaulting on other people's debts line.

She also needs some comfort about fast track EU membership and it might have to be given publicly to be credible (rather than "trust me").
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And we know that the EU can't and won't give any such guarantees so the decision needs to be taken while Scotland remains in the EU.

I think polls moving further to yes are the only steps closer right now.
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Possibly. But the polls are not exactly brilliant predictors of actual results it seems. The polls I saw at the end of June suggested 60% were for independence. As Brexit annoyance dies down that might drop off again or as Theresa May enacts her hard-right while sycophants tells us she's centre-left agenda it might increase further still.
 
Archie Gemmill Goal said:
May has not said this.
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True. She doesn't need to until Sturgeon declares intent / asks for one I guess. Then it's May's move. But I think plenty of hints have been dropped what the answer will be. It's not definite May would not allow one.

If she did it might well make a vote for independence more likely
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I agree saying "No you can't have an indyref" helps the yes vote if there subsequently is one. And helps the yes vote on an illegitimate one as well, partly out of annoyance and partly out of "well it won't make any difference" (which was apparently some folks' incredulous rationale for voting Leave EU)

Although Brexit has made the economic balance more even again in that respect.
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I don't agree, recession/downturn is on the cards now for the whole UK and it seems inconceivable that Scotland or anywhere else will escape it so it's "baked in the cake". A permanently lower growth path for the UK outside the EU is not something that is consensus at all as far as I know. There's probably equal chance of higher as lower in that regard.
 
funk de fino said:
Solve the currency issue in the meantime.
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The only solution is a new Scottish currency in the interim followed by joining the Euro if and when Scotland is allowed to join the EU. The interim currency could be named the Scottish pound, but it might be better to suck up to the EU and have a Scottish Euro.
 
Francesca R said:
True. She doesn't need to until Sturgeon declares intent / asks for one I guess. Then it's May's move. But I think plenty of hints have been dropped what the answer will be. It's not definite May would not allow one.

I agree saying "No you can't have an indyref" helps the yes vote if there subsequently is one. And helps the yes vote on an illegitimate one as well, partly out of annoyance and partly out of "well it won't make any difference" (which was apparently some folks' incredulous rationale for voting Leave EU)

I don't agree, recession/downturn is on the cards now for the whole UK and it seems inconceivable that Scotland or anywhere else will escape it so it's "baked in the cake". A permanently lower growth path for the UK outside the EU is not something that is consensus at all as far as I know. There's probably equal chance of higher as lower in that regard.
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Regrettably I have to agree. The optimistic part of me hopes that May will pull a rabbit out of the hat; that is the part of me that still believes in Santa Claus.
 
catsmate said:
Good for them.
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I'd expected the SNP to go for a proposed referendum in Scotland on the Brexit deal first, but can hardly blame them for going for this option given the UK government seems to want a slash and burn exit from the EU
 
I believe it was the whole Marmite thing that tipped our FM over the edge. Or perhaps the Flora.

Personally I'd have just started shopping at Morrison's instead, but never mind. Roll on IndyRef2.
 
I hope Marmite isn't used as a justification in the 2nd referendum, it could be very divisive :)
 
That message from Nicola seems to be the closest yet to a declaration that we are going to be having a second referendum. Given the nonsense from the Tories we've heard under kinder, happier, gentler Theresa I wouldn't be surprised if she panders to the Little Englanders by not going along with this. Could be fun.

Almost worth moving back home for.
 
I find it quite strange how she keeps saying Scotland didn't vote to leave, she seems to have got her referendums mixed up! The vote to decide if we leave or stay in the EU was a UK referendum - Scotland like England, Wales etc. did not have referendums.
 
Darat said:
I find it quite strange how she keeps saying Scotland didn't vote to leave, she seems to have got her referendums mixed up! The vote to decide if we leave or stay in the EU was a UK referendum - Scotland like England, Wales etc. did not have referendums.
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We definitely did. I remember voting in it.

And the people of Scotland voted to stay in the UK.

You might think that the UK as a whole trumps that but thats why we are where we are. If the UK didnt take the attitude that Scotland will just do what its told by the rest then the SNP wouldnt have half the support it does.
 
Archie Gemmill Goal said:
That message from Nicola seems to be the closest yet to a declaration that we are going to be having a second referendum. Given the nonsense from the Tories we've heard under kinder, happier, gentler Theresa I wouldn't be surprised if she panders to the Little Englanders by not going along with this. Could be fun.

Almost worth moving back home for.
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Looks like it. You may be back home quite soon. Here's today's Independent
After a 45-minute meeting, Ms May ruled out a second referendum on Scottish independence, which Ms Sturgeon has described as “highly likely” after Scots voted to remain in the EU while the UK as a whole voted for Brexit. “As far as I’m concerned, the Scottish people have had their vote, they voted in 2014 and a very clear message came through. Both the United Kingdom and the Scottish Government said they would abide by that,” Ms May said.​
 
Mid said:
Thought I'd bump this thread given this news:

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...dum-bill-scottish-independence-snp-conference
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From that article:
Sturgeon said a decision on triggering a second referendum was dependent on the strength of the new powers that would pass to Holyrood after Brexit, including powers that the Tories are unlikely to offer, on allowing separate policies on immigration and foreign affairs.
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What???

Of course that is not on the table. Foreign policy is an essential part of sovereignty. Westminster is not going to give away.

I still don't quite understand this hangup with referendums. Have a vote in Holyrood to rescind the 1707 Act of the Union and be done with it. Or if you want to have a referendum, why does it matter whether Westminster approves? They're not binding anyway, and Westminster's approval does not matter for the credibility of the outcome.
 
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