Indyref 2: This time it's personal.

Degeneve said:
I have read somewhere (can't remember where, sorry) that Spain could be reluctant to accept a "Scottish secession" followed by an application to become member of the EU as they don't want to create a example for their own Catalans separatists.
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That's often said though how true it is I guess can be debated.

The Brexit changes things though as they now would have the prospect of the UK out of the EU or rUK out and Scotland in. They may see the latter as more desirable regardless of the Catalan question
 
Social media today are flooded by former No voters, some vehement and high-profile, declaring their conversion to Yes. The most gob-smacking at the moment is Mike Dailly (he of "Mike's List"), unless that was somehow a spoof tweet. Eric Joyce was less unexpected.

Many people who were Better Together activists two years ago are declaring for Yes, and some are even saying they've joined the SNP. It's quite startling.

This is in some contrast to the pre-referendum opinion polls which only showed a small swing to Yes in the event of a Brexit. Time (not very much of it) will tell whether the apparent dawn conversions are in fact only a few very vocal people, with the bulk of the electorate remaining relatively unmoved, or whether the reality of the situation has caused a shift in opinion people didn't really bargain for when it was only an abstract question.

Survation have a poll in the field at the moment, with the results due early next week. So we'll see.

I have to say that my tolerance for being told in supercilious tones that Scotland is too wee and too poor and actually an economic basket case that won't be wanted in the EU anyway isn't really any higher than it was two years ago. So I probably won't be visiting this thread much. But consider, newspapers have been lying about a lot of things, and they're lying about that too.

Stuff is happening, and it's going to go on happening in the real world outside my door regardless of what any self-styled experts spout on this thread, so carry on, you all have fun.
 
Archie Gemmill Goal said:
Im not really sure what the fundamental difference between an English pound and a shared pound would be practically other than a Scottish representative at the table in the BoE.
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Without a formal currency union a nation has no monetary policy (it copies someone else's) and no last resort lender, it has a worse credit rating and cannot borrow money so easily and is more subject to capital flight.

I know that warnings of doom are ten a cent and to be dismissed but the EU is largely about a single currency union project. It probably really is not a viable way for Scotland into the EU. Better would be to create a scottish pound pegged to euro I think. Not impossibe by any means indeed it would IMO be rather lazy of IndyScotland not to try it.
 
Rolfe said:
I have to say that my tolerance for being told in supercilious tones that Scotland is too wee and too poor and actually an economic basket case that won't be wanted in the EU anyway isn't really any higher than it was two years ago.
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I wouldn't worry about that. Anyway from today there is a much louder cacophany telling the Brits that out is out and the EU is going to beat them with the pointy end of their big stick and create the world's nastiest divorce "pour encourager les autres" and because UK is puny relative to EU etc.

Brexiters (I was not one) have had project fear heaped on them just like you had.
 
Correction - it's Panelbase that has the independence poll in the field, that I know about. (Though of course Survation and who knows who else might have one too.)

Francesca R said:
indeed it would IMO be rather lazy of IndyScotland not to try it.
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Edited by Agatha: 
Removed breach of rule 0
This may well be the route that's taken. I was at an SNP meeting last Tuesday, though, where an entirely different and more radical currency move was debated. Whatever option is chosen, "laziness" is not likely to be a factor.
 
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Archie Gemmill Goal said:
Of course the EU will look after its own interests but there is a rather fundamental difference between being on their team and negotiating with them and resigning from their team and negotiating with them.
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Not really in my view, emotion and warm fuzzies generate much noise but are not much of a dimension of bargaining power in a mathematical game theory context. Endownment, coalition power, threat power and risk tolerance are.
 
Degeneve said:
I have read somewhere (can't remember where, sorry) that Spain could be reluctant to accept a "Scottish secession" followed by an application to become member of the EU as they don't want to create a example for their own Catalans separatists.
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Yes Spain would be very reluctant. Depending on who actually ends up running Spain which has been up in the air for 6 months. But that doesn't make it a dead end
 
Since Spain is not likely to secede from the EU any time soon, leaving Catalonia wanting to remain in, I don't think anyone in Madrid is really bothering about precedents.
 
Rolfe said:
Since Spain is not likely to secede from the EU any time soon, leaving Catalonia wanting to remain in, I don't think anyone in Madrid is really bothering about precedents.
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Since Spain indicated it would veto any fast track entry for Scotland last time it's quite likely they will still be bothering about precedents. (And the reason it did that was little to do with not wanting Scotland in the EU, but opposing Scotland independence for purely domestic reasons)

Of course that was Mariano Rajoy who isn't PM any more and we don't know who will be.
 
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Rolfe said:
Social media today are flooded by former No voters, some vehement and high-profile, declaring their conversion to Yes. The most gob-smacking at the moment is Mike Dailly (he of "Mike's List"), unless that was somehow a spoof tweet. Eric Joyce was less unexpected.

Many people who were Better Together activists two years ago are declaring for Yes, and some are even saying they've joined the SNP. It's quite startling.

This is in some contrast to the pre-referendum opinion polls which only showed a small swing to Yes in the event of a Brexit. Time (not very much of it) will tell whether the apparent dawn conversions are in fact only a few very vocal people, with the bulk of the electorate remaining relatively unmoved, or whether the reality of the situation has caused a shift in opinion people didn't really bargain for when it was only an abstract question.

Survation have a poll in the field at the moment, with the results due early next week. So we'll see.

I have to say that my tolerance for being told in supercilious tones that Scotland is too wee and too poor and actually an economic basket case that won't be wanted in the EU anyway isn't really any higher than it was two years ago. So I probably won't be visiting this thread much. But consider, newspapers have been lying about a lot of things, and they're lying about that too.

Stuff is happening, and it's going to go on happening in the real world outside my door regardless of what any self-styled experts spout on this thread, so carry on, you all have fun.
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CASE NIGHTMARE TWEED indeed.
 
Francesca R said:
A currency union must have consent of all parties to it. (Just ask the euro zone if you want to check that)

The UK post Brexit government will say no. 99.99% definitely. That is all it has to do.

Independent Scotland cannot force R-UK to share a currency with it against R-UK's will, that's all.
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Scotland can carrying on using the money existing in the economy without a formal Union. That money will still have value. That is what happened in Ireland post 1922. If that is not satisfactory in the longer run, changes can be made. As happened in Ireland in 1928. But on day one of independence we will still have sterling in the country and nothing will remove the value from it. Nobody needs to "share" a pound with me for it to be valuable. Shops in NI often already take € even though the UK is not in currency union with the €. The Republic doesn't say, hey that stuff can't be used up here: you're not in the Eurozone!!
 
Craig B said:
Scotland can carrying on using the money existing in the economy without a formal Union.
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Sure, I agreed with that already post 9. I think its own currency and central bank is better.

Whatever neither of those were ever countenanced by Scotland during the first campaign it was always the insistence that they could compel the R-UK to have a formal union. I would be quite surprised to see that silliness tried again.
 
Darat said:
Without the agreement of the UK government such a referendum would have no power.
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Yes but if such a referendum happen and they do declare independence.... Short of putting the British army in Scotland what choice would they have rather than have to accept it ?

Also what happen to those oil fields by the way ? Aren't they shared ?
 
Spain was able to delegitimise and effectively void a poll in Catalonia a year or so ago. But the UK has allowed one already so they will probably not do the same.
 
Aepervius said:
Yes but if such a referendum happen and they do declare independence.... Short of putting the British army in Scotland what choice would they have rather than have to accept it ?

Also what happen to those oil fields by the way ? Aren't they shared ?
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It's the other way I. E. around how would Scotland force such a split.
 
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