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If Saddam Had Stayed

4. The decision to go to war is for the white house and the congress to decide, not the public. The public's limited awareness and perception of the issue is irrelevant. If the public was competent to make such decisions, there would be no need for elections and presidents and senators.

the culture of the region must change.
All of it, or just the parts you don't like? Would you prefer they were less muslim?

It would be strange, because I did not say leaders decisions are beyond review. I find it strange that you suggest I said that. I did say decisions are either correct or incorrect, irrespective of the public's perception of the issue, which is not remotely the same as your strawman.
Please reread what you wrote. You'll find it is carte blanche permission for congress and the president to decide wars. Instead of defending the reason for war, all they have to say is...
4. The decision to go to war is for the white house and the congress to decide, not the public. The public's limited awareness and perception of the issue is irrelevant. If the public was competent to make such decisions, there would be no need for elections and presidents and senators.
Without disclosure, you have removed the primary check that is in place that ensures this is a republic democracy.
WMD was used as a primary reason for the war. It was found to be faulty. This GREATLY reduces my confidence in congress and the president to effectively decide when and if war is needed.


Take your dirty laundry.
You have been rather insulting and abusive in your posts and you have started making statements which make absolutely no sense. For instance, this one. I have absolutely no clue what you are referring to. it is for comments like this and other non sequitur statements which makes me think you are actually responding to someone else. If only I was privy to the entire conversation, then perhaps I would understand why you are so negative and rambling.


Major logic jumps? I think not. Seems to me the national policy goal of regime change dovetails nicely with the decision to invade. Wishing and hoping wasn't getting it done.
The policy was to help the iraqi people obtain it from within. I don't know how a invasion achieves that.


Of course. It's better to leave them stuck in the 16th century, all testosteroned up and all messed up on Allah.
hmmm...

Why are you playing the bigot card? Because I said "those people"?
Well, "those people" was only the first indication. All of your posts since then have confirmed your position.

Yes, you seem to be arguing from the position of a bigot. I don't agree with your position.



It is ludicrous to say removing the nazis from power was a failure because they didn't want us to do it. That's what your position amounts to.
I'm having an extremely hard time understanding your point.
nazis were eliminated because they invaded other nations and were committing genocide.

Both of those reasons were why we went to war in Iraq 1. But for Iraq 2, we went to war because of the failure to comply with the un resolution, which was premised upon the existence of WMD.
 
All of it, or just the parts you don't like? Would you prefer they were less muslim?

Mmmm....Yes!

I would prefer that all false religions go away and leave us alone. Or, failing that, at least come up with better gods who have more sensible plans of salvation than the ones they are currently unsuccessfully pursuing. I find plans of salvation that get billions frog-marched off to hell and eternal torture, to be somewhat lacking in both execution and ethical standards.

Even Bush, in his clumsy liberaton efforts, didn't cause billions to be lost and eternally tortured.

That's some messed-up salvation Allah and Jehovah are pushing. So it can rightly be said that the very mortal and fallible Bush, in liberating Iraq, out-performed both Allah and Jehovah, who have as yet been unable to establish their kingdoms on earth, and who have created multitudes of sinners and unbelievers who they inexplicably feel compelled to condemn to eternal torture.

Please reread what you wrote. You'll find it is carte blanche permission for congress and the president to decide wars. Instead of defending the reason for war, all they have to say is...

Welcome to USA, planet Earth. Where the president and congress do have the sole power to make war. Whether the people agree or not. The people, for their part, can throw the bums out of office come election time. That's the peoples' check.

Without disclosure, you have removed the primary check that is in place that ensures this is a republic democracy.

No. The people's votes are the primary check. With their votes, the people can make or break any politiker or any political party, temporarily or permanently. When the people kick them out, they have to go quietly, or else the armed forces are sworn by oath to defend the constitution.

You didn't know any of this?

Of course the president is going to explain, as much as he can without giving away too much to the enemy, why he thinks war is necessary or preferable to the alternative. But that does not mean he's going to blurt out all his plans, thoughts, and everything he knows on national TV.

WMD was used as a primary reason for the war. It was found to be faulty. This GREATLY reduces my confidence in congress and the president to effectively decide when and if war is needed.

So? What do you want from me? I'm very sorry they were wrong about the presence of WMD. But it's not nearly as bad as you think. Contrary to your disinformed belief, it was never all about the momentary presence or absence of WMD. Numerous attempts have been made by myself and others to point out the numerous other factors involved in the decision. All to no avail.

Perhaps you'll be happier when Jesus comes back to rule the earth. He doesn'make mistakes, you know. But, uh...actually...isn't it a mistake that he hasn't already come? What seems to be the holdup? He said he was coming back 2 millenia ago. What happened to "Behold, I come quickly."?

This GREATLY reduces my confidence in Jesus to effectively decide when and if to burn someone in hell eternally.

You have been rather insulting and abusive in your posts and you have started making statements which make absolutely no sense.

So why do you keep coming back for more? My advice would be to stop digging.

If you don't like me now, you really wouldn't like me when I'm angry.

For instance, this one. I have absolutely no clue what you are referring to.

I suppose you're not familiar with the lyrics to "Dirty Laundry" by the Eagles. Which is wierd. Everybody should know the lyrics to "Dirty Laundry". And the chords.

What. I'm not allowed to have any fun at all while I'm hosting your "coldly logical leftist" fantasy? I quoted some of the lyrics because it was my sense that your were fishing for something you could use. So I gave you something you could use. Just to show you how little I care about these silly-ass little leftist gotcha games.

"I make my living off the evening news
Just give me something - something I can use
People love it when you lose
They love dirty laundry..."

it is for comments like this and other non sequitur statements which makes me think you are actually responding to someone else. If only I was privy to the entire conversation, then perhaps I would understand why you are so negative and rambling.

Don't tell me your troubles. I've got troubles of my own. My suggested course of action:

First, get a life. Then get a sense of humor. Then get over yourself. Then stop obsessing because no WMD was found. Unless you want to obsess about what happened to it, because we really don't know what happened to all of it. We have only Saddam's word on that. For all we know, it could be sitting in an underground facility outside Damascus.

The policy was to help the iraqi people obtain it from within. I don't know how a invasion achieves that.

By obtaining it from without, of course. Since it was nowhere near being obtained from within. That was a major pipe dream. You need to disabuse yourself of that notion. Just like his mentor Stalin, Saddam was going to die in bed, at a ripe old age, if not forcibly overthrown by a real army.

You even talk about messing with the Husseins from within, you better be ready to have your tongue extracted.

Haven't you ever seen that tape in which Saddam taped himself seizing absolute power from the parliament? If so, didn't you see the numbing fear in their eyes, as Saddam called out names, and people were seized and taken out one by one, while Saddam smiled and smoked his cigar?

You mess with that man, you're going bye-bye, but you're going slowly and excruciatingly painfully. And maybe you get to watch your family go first.

It took a real army to mess with Saddam. And the day he dropped through should have been a day of worldwide celebration. But I didn't see many celebrations around monkeyworld, except in Iraq. And that's just one of many reasons why monkeyworld can kiss my fuzzy white ass.

Well, "those people" was only the first indication. All of your posts since then have confirmed your position.

Yes, you seem to be arguing from the position of a bigot. I don't agree with your position.

"Wul, Ah sho is sorry, mistah word-po-lice officah, Ah sho won't say dat no mo. Pleeze don't gimme no ticket. Ah cain't afford no ticket. Ah sho didn't mean nuthin by it. Ah don't have nuthin agin nobody of any colah if dey ack like they got a lick a sense an don't mean me no harm. Ah don't even membah when Ah said dat or whut Ah wuz talkin about when Ah said it. But you done brought dat up two-three times. If Ida knowed sayin "those people" wuz dat bad, I sho wouldna said it. Cawze Ah sho cain't afford no word ticket."

Like hell I wouldn't. If anybody tries to control my speech, they're just going to get ridiculed.

Know what's really bigoted? What's really bigoted is when you assume I'm a bigot because I used two very common, non-perjorative words in conjunction. That is a bigoted assumption.

Seems like you just can't keep from shooting yourself in the foot.

I'm having an extremely hard time understanding your point.

That's because you're indulging in your usual habit of ignoring what I was responding to.

You basically said regime change is a failure because people wont like it. I'm sure many of them won't. However, by that reasoning, the nazis shouldn't have been overthrown, because they wouldn't like being overthrown, and many Germans wouldn't like it either.

That's why I called your statement ludicrous.

nazis were eliminated because they invaded other nations and were committing genocide.

Both of those reasons were why we went to war in Iraq 1. But for Iraq 2, we went to war because of the failure to comply with the un resolution, which was premised upon the existence of WMD.

Wrong. The resolution did not accuse Saddam of having WMD, other than alluding to weapons he was known to have had under development in violation of the nonproliferation requirements. The resolution was premised on the fact that they did not know what happened to the WMD they knew Saddam had before he evicted the inspectors. And because they did not know what Saddam had been doing during the years after the inspectors were evicted.

As for the US, Britain, and other members of the coalition, the momentary presence or absence of WMD was a matter of only secondary importance to them. If he had it, they'd get rid of it. If he didn't have it, they would insure that he never would have it. And the US also had the standing national policy goal of changing the entire game in Iraq, and ultimately to transform the region by proving that Arab democracy is possible and desirable.

The immediate goal was to insure that Saddam would never use WMD again, or start another war, or cause any more trouble whatsoever. Not merely to insure that he didn't have WMD at the moment. Why is this very simple and sensible concept so difficult for you to accept?

I'll tell you why. Because it means your position is fallacious. But not to worry. You can fix that. Just change your position.
 
I would prefer that all false religions
What's a false religion?

Even Bush, in his clumsy liberaton efforts, didn't cause billions to be lost and eternally tortured.
Who's being eternally tortured?

Welcome to USA, planet Earth. Where the president and congress do have the sole power to make war. Whether the people agree or not. The people, for their part, can throw the bums out of office come election time. That's the peoples' check.
Exactly. Which is why knowing if the choices they made were rational or not. The fact that there was no WMD suggests it wasn't.


So? What do you want from me? I'm very sorry they were wrong about the presence of WMD. But it's not nearly as bad as you think. Contrary to your disinformed belief, it was never all about the momentary presence or absence of WMD.
And yet they claimed they were there. That they had gone after yellow cake. That there was exact locations known. None of that was true. So why would I trust the rest?

So why do you keep coming back for more? My advice would be to stop digging.
I"m simply trying to have a discussion.

If you don't like me now, you really wouldn't like me when I'm angry.
I like you just fine. Being confused by your bizarre vitriol isn't the same as disliking someone.


I suppose you're not familiar with the lyrics to "Dirty Laundry" by the Eagles. Which is wierd. Everybody should know the lyrics to "Dirty Laundry". And the chords.
nope.

What. I'm not allowed to have any fun at all while I'm hosting your "coldly logical leftist" fantasy? I quoted some of the lyrics because it was my sense that your were fishing for something you could use. So I gave you something you could use. Just to show you how little I care about these silly-ass little leftist gotcha games.
What game playing?

First, get a life. Then get a sense of humor. Then get over yourself.
There you go again. One must wonder why you need to lash out. I've done nothing to desreve your ire.

Then stop obsessing because no WMD was found. Unless you want to obsess about what happened to it, because we really don't know what happened to all of it.
So you assume it was there at one point? DO you assume big foot is real as well?
We have only Saddam's word on that. For all we know, it could be sitting in an underground facility outside Damascus.
Or stockpiled on mars.

It took a real army to mess with Saddam. And the day he dropped through should have been a day of worldwide celebration. But I didn't see many celebrations around monkeyworld, except in Iraq. And that's just one of many reasons why monkeyworld can kiss my fuzzy white ass.
And you see why one may believe you to be a bigot?
I'm sure you'll claim you are simply playing a game, which is strange. I'm not sure what pleasure you would get out of such mummery.



"Wul, Ah sho is sorry, mistah word-po-lice officah, Ah sho won't say dat no mo. Pleeze don't gimme no ticket. Ah cain't afford no ticket. Ah sho didn't mean nuthin by it. Ah don't have nuthin agin nobody of any colah if dey ack like they got a lick a sense an don't mean me no harm. Ah don't even membah when Ah said dat or whut Ah wuz talkin about when Ah said it. But you done brought dat up two-three times. If Ida knowed sayin "those people" wuz dat bad, I sho wouldna said it. Cawze Ah sho cain't afford no word ticket."
This is a bit over the top.

Like hell I wouldn't. If anybody tries to control my speech, they're just going to get ridiculed.
I have no intention on controlling your speech. Posts like this one hurt any argument you've been trying to make.
 
What's a false religion?

Any religion which posits an impossible creator-god who made everything. For starters.

Who's being eternally tortured?

If Leftiesergeant's false religion were real, you would find out. Because you clearly know nothing of His Word.

Exactly. Which is why knowing if the choices they made were rational or not. The fact that there was no WMD suggests it wasn't.

You can't rationally make that judgement based on what little you know. It is entirely possible to rationally decide WMD was very probably there when it wasn't.

And yet they claimed they were there. That they had gone after yellow cake. That there was exact locations known. None of that was true. So why would I trust the rest?

Yellowcake was there. Something like 27 tons. And they did know exactly where it was, because the inspectors found it. The last of it was recently flown to Canada.

I"m simply trying to have a discussion.

I don't see it that way.

I like you just fine. Being confused by your bizarre vitriol isn't the same as disliking someone.

Well, I don't like you.

So you assume it was there at one point? DO you assume big foot is real as well?

Every informed person in the world knows it was there. Except you and all the tens of thousands of Iranians and Kurds it killed. And even the victims knew it for a little while, before they died in horrible agony.

Or stockpiled on mars.

I'm beginning to think you're from Mars.

You have no idea where the declared but unaccounted-for WMD went. You don't even seem to know it ever existed. Well, surprise. It existed. Iraq was required to make a list of WMD and locations. It did so. Most of the declared WMD was verified as destroyed by the inspectors before they were evicted. But not all of it.

And you see why one may believe you to be a bigot?

Why? Because I used the "monkey" word? That remark leans more toward suggesting that you may be a bigot yourself. Do you associate the "monkey" word with any ethnic group?

There is no reason to assume any phenotype or ethnic group is any more monkeylike than any other, unless you are a bigot.

When I say "monkeyworld" I'm talking about the whole planet.

I'm sure you'll claim you are simply playing a game, which is strange.

Wrong again.

I'm not playing a game when I call the world "the monkeyball". I'm dead serious when I say that. I despise the monkeyball and most of it's history, with only a few exceptions.

I'm not sure what pleasure you would get out of such mummery.

Do you have control issues? You don't need to be sure about how I get my pleasure. You don't even need to worry your pretty little head about how I get my pleasure. In fact, you just need to entirely forget about how I get my pleasure.

This is a bit over the top.

Why? You accuse me of bigotry on the basis of two non-perjorative words, and you expect not to be ridiculed? Well, you better get a clue. You do that, you're going to be ridiculed.

I have no intention on controlling your speech. Posts like this one hurt any argument you've been trying to make.

Criticizing anyone's speech as "bigoted" based on two non-perjorative words is either an overt attempt to control their speech, or something else equally wierd. Who, exactly, do you think you're fooling by denying the obvious?

I haven't been "trying" to make arguments. I've been telling it like it is. So I throw in a little extra now and then. If you don't like it, go try to school Leftiesergeant. He's pretty vitriolic and over the top. Always talking about shooting and hanging people and such. He's the one who needs your help. So why don't you go to him, and critique his posting style, and get him all lined out?
 
I haven't been "trying" to make arguments.
I agree with you on this point. You aren't interested in a discussion. Only in being insulting and making random non-sequitur comments.

Well, I'm done.
your posts are there for others to read and see them for what they are.

Enjoy.
 
I agree with you on this point. You aren't interested in a discussion. Only in being insulting and making random non-sequitur comments.

What discussion? Oh, you mean all those days of your constant boilerplate repetition and annoying, obtuse responses?

You're right. Not interested.

Well, I'm done.
your posts are there for others to read and see them for what they are.

Enjoy.

OK.

Hell is that way.:dig:
 
Hey Joobs since you don't like regime change what was your solution to the Saddam problem?
 
Hey Joobs since you don't like regime change what was your solution to the Saddam problem?

Well I think its pretty obvious what the other approach would have been (sorry to speak for you joobz, feel free to add in) - but containment.

What else?

It was working and now we have the evidence that it did work. It also represented a better balancing of broader regional strategic interests: containment of Iraq worked towards the containment of Iran, it would have kept America focused on Afghanistan and not drawn resources away from there, it would have kept the lid on islamic radicalism in Iraq and in the broader region.

All good reasons to keep with containment, and allow the Saddam regime to be defeated over time through domestic forces - the only really lasting change comes from within.
 
Hey Joobs since you don't like regime change what was your solution to the Saddam problem?
Interesting question.

I would have kept Saddam in check with the sanctions and inspections. effectively maintaining the policy we have kept with many other nations, including Iran, North Korea, and Cuba.


The primary effort should have remained on Afghanistan.

ETA:
Praktik beat me to it and said it better than I did.
 
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Well I think its pretty obvious what the other approach would have been (sorry to speak for you joobz, feel free to add in) - but containment.

What else?

It was working and now we have the evidence that it did work.

First, as President Bush said at one point in discussing his Iraq policy, "containment doesn't work with a man who is a madman." And Saddam was certainly mad. Only a madman would have directed his military to attack a nuclear armed non-combatant in the first Gulf War with chemical weapons. Only a madman would have made an attempt to kill a US President, sitting or former. Only a madman would have applauded al-Qaeda immediately after 9/11 and allowed himself to be seen as cooperating with terrorists after that. Only a madman would have hung images of himself in his offices and palaces celebrating the destruction of the towers. Only a madman would have chosen a war he could not win over cooperation with the UN inspectors before the final invasion. And only a madman would have ended up being dragged out of a dirty little hole rather than remaining in palacial power as he easily could have done just by cooperating.

The fact is we had tried containment and sanctions for over ten years, and both had failed. It wasn't just about whether he had stockpiles of WMD warheads at the moment. Even to the point of the second invasion, we now know that Iraq was actively working on prohibited long range delivery systems. It had even recently negotiated a deal with North Korea to purchase a long range missile. Saddam was diverting billions of dollars from the Food For Oil program to maintaining his military capabilities and prohibited weapons research programs. The ISG concluded that Iraq retained the personnel and materials needed to build mustard gas munitions in just three to six months from the word "go". Nerve-gas weapons in a year or two. In other words, Iraq could have quickly broken out into a fully WMD armed nation again . Saddam never gave up the dream of possessing WMD and was doing everything in his power to retain the ability to do so, and even move forward in certain areas. And making considerable progress despite UN oversight and sanctions.

Saddam sought a clean bill of health from the UN inspectors and was in fact on the verge of getting that (thanks to the non-coalition nations), even though he had not actually come clean about WMD. Just weeks before the invasion, the head of the UN inspectors was still complaining that Iraq was not fully cooperating with inspections that had already dragged on, thanks to Iraq's noncompliance, months longer than anticipated. If Iraq had cooperated, then you could easily answer the six questions I asked. But you can't. This thread has made that abundantly clear.

And once that clean bill of health from the UN inspectors was in hand, it would have been very hard to keep the sanctions in place. Afterall, the same crowd that was against the war was claiming the sanctions were killing hundreds of thousands of innocent women and children. And the ISG concluded from documents and interviews that once the sanctions were gone, it was Saddam's intent to quickly reconstitute his WMD arsenal. It's hard to view that as a stable "contained" situation.

And we must also view the pre-war situation in Iraq in light of 9/11 just having taken place and an al-Qaeda presence in Iraq. We could no longer ignore even small amounts of WMD in Saddam's hands (and intelligence agencies could only say Saddam didn't have "militarily significant" quantities before the invasion). And it turns out the ISG concluded, based on interviews and captured documents/recordings, that Saddam and his associates still considered themselves at war with the US, despite the cease-fire. And they were looking for ways to attack the US. They (Saddam and his top lieutenants) had even discussed the use of third parties armed with WMD attacking targets in the US, including the Whitehouse.

Keep in mind that Saddam was the ONLY leader of a country in the entire world to openly applaud the hijacker's murder of 3000+ Americans with what was essential a WMD attack. We know he had contacts (friendly ones) with al-Qaeda both before and after 9/11. We know that he knew there were al-Qaeda in Iraq before the invasion and had essentially done nothing about it. In fact, Saddam personally ordered the release of one his police had captured prior to the invasion. The leader of al-Qaeda in Iraq at the time (al-Zarqawi) received medical treatment at a private hospital owned by one of Saddam's sons. About a dozen al-Qaeda terrorists were captured and convicted of a plot to kill tens of thousands of Jordanians and everyone in the US embassy in Amman. They captured them with the vehicles, explosives and chemicals to carry out the attack. And those terrorists admitted that they met with al-Zarqawi (who they said funded the operation) in Baghdad before the invasion. IN BAGHDAD BEFORE THE INVASION. There is no denying that Al-Qaeda was seriously active in Iraq before the invasion. And it's presence was only growing. We couldn't just ignore that either, could we?

With all this history, it's downright silly to think inspections and sanctions were the answer to Iraq and Saddam ... that anything positive would have changed as a result of them. Iraq at the time of the invasion was a year to two from having WMD sitting on top of long range missiles. That was the judgement of the ISG. All that had to happen was Saddam be given a clean bill of health by the so-called inspectors. Then there would have been no logical excuse to keep the sanctions in place. Then the cries that sanctions hurt the people of Iraq would have intensified. In fact, Saddam was using the hurt those sanctions were causing (in large part because of the way Saddam was reacting to them) as the excuse to get them removed. And he was very close to doing so. So close that a number of companies in the major non-coalition nations had already secretly negotiated billion dollar arms and materials deals in anticipation of their removal.

Inspections had failed because he frustrated the inspectors and eventually forced them out of his country for four of those 10 years. We learned after the invasion that even inspectors in the UN had been coopted by Iraq. And the ISG proved that even the latest round of inspections had missed much. And as my 6 unanswered questions prove, the ISG might have missed much more than even our government is now willing to admit (perhaps out of embarassment or because noone wants to open that can of worms).

You and joobz live in a fantasy.
 
Well I think its pretty obvious what the other approach would have been (sorry to speak for you joobz, feel free to add in) - but containment.

What else?

It was working and now we have the evidence that it did work. It also represented a better balancing of broader regional strategic interests: containment of Iraq worked towards the containment of Iran, it would have kept America focused on Afghanistan and not drawn resources away from there, it would have kept the lid on islamic radicalism in Iraq and in the broader region.

All good reasons to keep with containment, and allow the Saddam regime to be defeated over time through domestic forces - the only really lasting change comes from within.


Containment worked like ass Praktik. It was a lame half-measure. If you even thought about opposing the Saddam regime your daughter's head would be cut off and nailed to your door as a warning.

What makes you think that a liberal and democratic opposition would come to power in Iraq if it was left to itself? When has a liberal and democratic opposition ever come to power anywhere in the Arab world? It would be far more likely that Baath loyalists would murder their way back into power like they tried to do, or that Islamic fanatics would and murder their way into power like they tried to do. And good luck expecting Al-Qaeda, Iran and the other regimes to stay out of that that mess.
 
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you asked what the alternative was, and that's what it was.

And I happen to think it was less costly for everyone concerned: for Iraq itself who has suffered greatly since 2003, and for AMerica, who has suffered the loss of blood and treasure with only tenuous benefits to show for all the pain.

THis was not the far-left position, containment was the realist appraisal of sober minds with decades of experience in these matters: people like Gates - and even Cheney himself in the 90s - supported this policy.

Virus you are right to mention other regimes - they are always a concern. But letting power change domestically would almost certainly have not created the same kind of power vacuum that invading without a plan for post-invasion did - and be less of an open invitation to Iran to increase its influence.
 
you asked what the alternative was, and that's what it was.

And I happen to think it was less costly for everyone concerned: for Iraq itself who has suffered greatly since 2003, and for AMerica, who has suffered the loss of blood and treasure with only tenuous benefits to show for all the pain.

Liberated Iraq. Removed the worst tyranny in the region. Gave their oil back. Removed the sanctions. Smacked Al-Qaeda up. Demonstrated that America will take the fight to the enemy. Tenuous benefits? Totalitarianism received another fatal blow. Part of the larger strategy on the war against the Islamofascists.

THis was not the far-left position,

I know it wasn't the far-left position. The far-left position was to oppose any attempt to contain Saddam.

containment was the realist appraisal of sober minds with decades of experience in these matters: people like Gates - and even Cheney himself in the 90s - supported this policy.

Yeah, but then they said containment was a mistake and wasn't working, so crucial bit of context missing there.

Virus you are right to mention other regimes - they are always a concern. But letting power change domestically would almost certainly have not created the same kind of power vacuum that invading without a plan for post-invasion did - and be less of an open invitation to Iran to increase its influence.

Sorry but that's BS. The Arab world has never had a peaceful transfer of power, let alone one to a democracy, before the liberation of Iraq.
 
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Might i also add that it was more likey that these things would happen first:

Hell Freezing Over
The Zombie Apocalypse
Operation Sealion succeeding
Duke Nukem Forever coming out

Before Iraq would have become magically democratic by itself after Saddam kicked the bucket. This naive notion of "people's revolution" after Saddam was a pipedream. What would have happened was Uday or Qusay would have come to power. Imagine them in charge. Yeah, that's replacing the Boot on a face with a spiked boot.
 
And I happen to think it was less costly for everyone concerned: for Iraq itself who has suffered greatly since 2003, and for AMerica, who has suffered the loss of blood and treasure with only tenuous benefits to show for all the pain.

Since you won't address my last post to you, I'll just add another to the list you can ignore. :D

I happen to think you are wrong about this too.

Like I indicated before, three chicago economists did a study before the invasion looking at the cost of not invading versus containment. They concluded that an annual containment cost of $19 billion might have been expected after the decision not to invade. Converting that to expected present value by discounting future expenditures at 2 percent per year, and by a 3 percent annual probability that the Iraqi regime would change character and no longer require containment, they estimated a 20 year cost of containment of $380 billion.

Furthermore, they estimated that if just one large terrorist attack (a non-WMD one) occurred over a 20 year time frame as a result of letting Saddam and his sons stay in power, those costs would rise to $430 billion in today's dollars. If leaving Saddam in place increased homeland security costs by only $10 billion a year (about 10% of then current expenditures) in an effort to prevent such attacks, they calculated that the cost of the no invasion option would increase another $200 billion ... to $630 billion. And of course, that assumed only one large terrorist attack would result from leaving Saddam in place which is like looking at the world through rose colored glasses.

Next, consider the fact that economists have calculated that 9/11 (a WMD-like attack) did nearly a trillion dollars in direct and indirect damage (not to mention killing 3000+ people) to the United States. Consider that we know Saddam was intent on rebuilding his WMD arsenals, still considered himself at war with the US since 1991, was already training and funding terrorists before the invasion (in fact, was on speaking terms with the very terrorist group that attacked us on 9/11), and was discussing the possibility of 3rd party terrorist attacks on the US using WMD with his advisors. The probability of such an attack occurring if we left Saddam in power for much longer is far from negligible.

Even in the state that Iraq's weapons programs were in after the invasion, the inspector who led the ISG effort, David Kay, said that Iraq was more dangerous than anyone had thought prior to the invasion with regard to terrorists acquiring WMD materials and knowledge from it. And if we hadn't invaded, it was a virtual certainty that the sanctions that the ISG found had stymied Iraq's efforts to rebuild its WMD arsenal up to that point in time would soon be gone, although our containment costs probably wouldn't.

With sanctions removed and limits on oil sales gone, Saddam would have begun rebuilding his WMD arsenal. The ISG concluded that was his intention. And that he still had the capability. It wouldn't have taken long to do it. Countries like France, Germany and Russia were eager to sell Iraq arms and new equipment for making arms. The ISG said that at the time of the invasion, Iraq still had the means to reconstitute mustard gas munitions within 6 months and build nerve gas munitions within about a year or two. So by now it's likely Iraq would have rearmed to some extent.

I submit that it wouldn't have been long before terrorists acquired Iraqi WMD or the knowledge to make them from Iraqis. Either Saddam would have sold or given them to terrorists (a possibility that based on recovered tapes was probably discussed internally), or some loose cannon in Iraq's munitions industry (that's what David Kay feared) would have done so ... for cash or ideology or because of threats to himself or loved ones. And if al-Qaeda had acquired WMD via this route, does anyone doubt they would be used against the US or US interests?

So what would have been the cost of a WMD terrorist attack, if leaving Saddam in power resulted in even one? Another trillion dollars? Two trillion? And how many dead? Ten thousand? A hundred thousand? On this basis alone, I think it's fair to suggest the cost of invading Iraq might pale in comparison to cost of having left Saddam in power and relying on *containment*. Because Saddam was crazy.

By the way, after such an attack, assuming we learned of Iraq's involvement, there would be consequences. Costly ones. We might bomb Iraq. We might then invade it. Either way, it would be much more costly to do that once Saddam rearmed than it was in 2003. It's not inconceivable we might actually then face a WMD armed opponent who had already demonstrated a willingness to cross the WMD threshold. And the cost of such a war? Trillions more?

But there are still other avoided costs (i.e., benefits) in invading.

The professors mentioned above noted that "Since Saddam Hussein came to power in 1979, Iraqi income per person has fallen by at least 75 percent." They concluded that war and forcible regime change might raise Iraqi welfare by 50 percent compared to containment – "an enormous gain." In areas mostly free of al-Qaeda terrorism, like Kurdistan, Iraq's economy has indeed blossomed. In fact, capita GDP (PPP) over Iraq in general has shot up since the war. In 2008 it was already 37 percent higher than it as in 2000 and 48% higher than it was in 2002. It's 2008 GDP growth rate was almost 10% compared to a negative growth rate before we invaded. I think the professors way underestimated what Iraq will look like in 20 years thanks to Saddam being gone.

And then add in the cost in human lives of leaving Saddam in place. The professors stated that "all told, the current regime has killed or caused the deaths of well over half a million Iraqis since Saddam Hussein came to power in 1979. Under the policy of containment after the Gulf War, a reasonable estimate is that 200,000 or more Iraqis have died prematurely at the hands of the regime or as a direct consequence of its policies." They concluded that "if we discount future lost lives in the same way as future economic costs, and allowing for the same probability of peaceful regime change, then a policy of containment means another 200,000 to 600,000 dead Iraqis." And that's assuming that Saddam wouldn't get involved in yet another war of aggression where many hundred thousands of his people were killed along with considerable numbers of his adversary's people.

And here's some additional factors to consider.

Even without acquiring WMD from Iraq, allowing al-Qaeda to continue to use Iraq as a safe haven as they were before the invasion could have had very significant and bad consequences for us in the WOT. We invaded Afghanistan because al-Qaeda ran camps there where tens of thousands of would be terrorists learned and honed their murderous skills. Because 9/11 was planned and launched from it. Well, even before we invaded Iraq, al-Qaeda was already moving into Iraq and setting up the same sorts of camps. There are also some indications that al-Qaeda were being trained at Iraqi facilities. Helped by Iraqis. And that cooperation would likely have increased had we not invaded when we did. Like it or not, Iraq was a safe haven for terrorists and al-Qaeda took advantage of that. Before we ever invaded, al-Zarqawi met with al-Qaeda terrorists in Baghdad who he funded to carry out a chemical bomb mass casualty attack (that didn't apparently involve WMD of the sort used in munitions but would still have killed tens of thousands if successful). Had we not invaded, perhaps that plot would have been successful because then al-Zarqawi would have been able to continue oversight of the operation rather than spend his time running and hiding from Coalition forces. Perhaps one reason that plot failed is intelligence we gained during the hunt for al-Zarqawi (remember the captured notebook computer?). Had we not invaded, what makes anyone think that one plot would have been the only plot instigated by al-Qaeda operating out of Iraq against US interests or US citizens, or against other western or western friendly countries and their citizens? And what would of been the cost in lives and dollars of that? Another trillion dollars here? Another trillion dollars there?

Then there is the fact that even if we hadn't invaded there would still have been the costs associated with fighting the WOT ... but now with some other locale as the battlefield. And perhaps that locale wouldn't be quite as advantageous as Iraq? Our invasion of Iraq made Iraq a focus for al-Qaeda, drawing their "soldiers" and using up their resources. What would have been the cost had those soldiers fought us elsewhere with those same resources?

And what about the benefits of establishing a western friendly, terrorist unfriendly, economic powerhouse in the region ... one with control of a sizable fraction of the world's oil? The problem with the anti-war movement and folks like you is that you never wanted to honestly examine the potential benefits of winning in Iraq and the costs of having done nothing about Saddam. And you still don't.

:D
 
Even this is following Bush's plan ... I seem to recall an Obama who was more anti-Bush, anti-surge, anti-war, etc. than you do.

At any rate, my question still stands: If Obama is so smart, why is he pursuing Bush's idiotic Iraq strategy as president?

This question has given me pause in assessing my own opinion about Iraq. I, myself, have found no easy answers.

I think you are conflating two very different decision points here. The first decision point is whether to go to war in the first place. Once that decision has been made affirmatively, the acceptable choices after that becoming radically constrained. Chances are that Obama has continued Bush's basic strategy in Iraq because that was the best out of the available choices. Regardless of how stupid Obama might think the initial choice to go to war was, he cannot unmake that decision and he doesn't want to be a President who lost a war.
 

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