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How To Be A Global Warming Sceptic

Just in case you need smth like this, here are the anual variations of global temperature (data from NOOA). It seems a waste to bury 15 minutes of work in a thread about weathermen :)

http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/imagehosting/thum_28147cd8e2bb41e8.jpg

It tends to push the point across, except for Dave, who apparently can't read these graphs (or any graphs, I suspect).

Get used to it:



LEARN from a statistician:
http://wmbriggs.com/blog/2008/02/09/how-to-look-at-the-rss-satellite-derived-temperature-data/
 
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Just in case you need smth like this, here are the anual variations of global temperature (data from NOOA). It seems a waste to bury 15 minutes of work in a thread about weathermen :)

[qimg]http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/imagehosting/thum_28147cd8e2bb41e8.jpg[/qimg]

Can I get a signed litho of that graph to hang on my wall? Sure, it translates a shipload of data into something clear and obvious, but more importantly: it's PURDY! :) Edward Tufte would approve!
 
Get used to it:

:dl:

Oh Dave, only you to make me use the laughing dog...

Now, can this be construed as your position, or when I call you on it a few months from now, you'll back away whining that 'it was only a question'?

Just as an information... you're beyond the point of being taken seriously...

BTW, write to your favorite bloggers... It's cold today! Proof of global cooling...
 
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Edward Tufte would approve!

You know, I've said that exact same thing.

A submission to http://www.globalwarmingart.com/ perhaps?



edit: this one in particular.

28147a4a0f240c34.jpg
 
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Can I get a signed litho of that graph to hang on my wall? Sure, it translates a shipload of data into something clear and obvious, but more importantly: it's PURDY! :) Edward Tufte would approve!

Thank you :blush:

I can't do the litho, but I can send you an e-signed big jpeg, if you want... just pm me your email, and I'll send it to you.
 
... you love to overinterpret what I write and try to thought-insert, don't you?

I was talking about you, not to you. You seem to have misinterpreted. Nobody's sugesting that there's any thought in your posts at all, let alone trying to introduce any.

At the very least, you regularly insinuate that I am an idiot who knows nothing of science and the scientific process.

Oh yes, I do that.

IT'S VERY SIMPLE!

Classic.

You, and your ilk, repeatedly try to obfuscate, misdirect, and shove the argument in a different direction

We try to point out that it's not as simple as you are. (That was me calling you a name, as a control sample.)

If CO2 is the prime driver of climate change, climate being weather patterns averaged over time (nothing more) ...

Way more. Climate is the constraint within which weather occurs.

then CO2 would have to have a predominating, escalating effect given its ever increasing amounts. This presumes that there is, essentially, a static input from other climate drivers...

No it doesn't, it assumes that AGW will be another influence combining with all the other influences. Your argument fails at that (early) point.

(I loved the use of capitals, though, very stylish.)
 
Yeah, right, that's gonna work :rolleyes:.

Coming from someone who thinks statistics is not science and Siberia is warm, one can't expect much thought.

Megaladon, is it warming? You really don't know much about constructing graphs for analysis do you?

Does this make it bit more understandable? See, in order to understand what's going on, to create a graph showing it has warmed since 1979 does not allow for analysis to see what the current decade is doing. There is a clear downward trend in all four data sets. I asked the same question last year: Which way will it go, up? Capeldodger, how's the Hansen scenario looking nowadays? No doubt Spencer Weart will at some point claim the climate models predicted this all along, and all the RealClimate groupies will shout AMEN!

 
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Besides calling me names, you love to overinterpret what I write and try to thought-insert, don't you? At the very least, you regularly insinuate that I am an idiot who knows nothing of science and the scientific process.

IT'S VERY SIMPLE! You, and your ilk, repeatedly try to obfuscate, misdirect, and shove the argument in a different direction.

If CO2 is the prime driver of climate change, climate being weather patterns averaged over time (nothing more), then CO2 would have to have a predominating, escalating effect given its ever increasing amounts. This presumes that there is, essentially, a static input from other climate drivers such as the sun (i.e., normal variation) or other mitigating climate factors - which is something 'warmers' have to do to make their models work and point the finger at CO2.

Energy into the system will necessarily effect different systems within the planet that affect weather. Your camp has dismissed solar variation as a prime driver. So, you have to presume that escalating CO2 levels - which you do - will create escalating global temperature mean. The assuption is that nothing else is predominate in current climatic change observations.

Given these things, it doesn't not fit with your hypothesis that one should see any dip in mean temperatures over even short periods of time, unless there is some other accounted for primary climate driver or "forcer". But, your camp won't even entertain this possibility. Your mind is made up that CO2 is the primary forcer. And, you are doing everything to re-affirm this conclusion, including promulgating and continuing to do bad science to meet your preconceived notions.

I've set out two very easy to conduct experiments that will corroborate (or disprove) a couple fast-held notions. Instead of doing these experiments, people are more content (because they are lazy and it's easier) to try to dismiss dissenters as buffoons.

The king is not wearing any clothes. I'm continually disappointed that you all do not realize that.

-Dr. Imago

The Emporer? We are a collection of interested observers, of varying skill, (I am impressed by some of the participants in these threads.) But we aren't the emporer, so I don't know why you waste time telling us off. The IPCC represents the body of experts, and presents the summary of their research. To ask them to do those experiments is like asking a doctor to prove why he takes your blood pressure, using a similar experiment. It would be interesting for high school students, or undergraduates, but the body of knowledge has long passed that stage.
 
The Emporer? We are a collection of interested observers, of varying skill, (I am impressed by some of the participants in these threads.) But we aren't the emporer, so I don't know why you waste time telling us off. The IPCC represents the body of experts, and presents the summary of their research. To ask them to do those experiments is like asking a doctor to prove why he takes your blood pressure, using a similar experiment. It would be interesting for high school students, or undergraduates, but the body of knowledge has long passed that stage.

The IPCC cherry picked the research that fit their agenda. Further, the authors of the chapters in many cases used their own work as evidence and ignored competing research, or simply ignored any research that conflicted with their conclusions.

Shall we discuss that aspect?

So far AUP, all you've done is reference IPCC, blogs and essays.
We have provided the science articles.
 
Ask and you'll shall receive



Since you've proved time and time again your inability with graphs, I'll explain. What you're seeing is the evolution of the temperature anomaly and number of sunspots (a proxy for sun activity). The trendlines are polynomial, and only there to show the general trend of the data.
Additionally you have the CO2 data... Make of it what you will...

And to end with the stupidity of "there's no correlation between CO2 and temperature", please see:



You're depressing... everytime

No offense Megalodon, you can't analyze much by using a simple trend. If you'd bother reading Briggs material, you would learn that, but you have no interest in statistical analysis. Of course you can still claim it's warming for the next 20 years even with the negative trend continuing the entire time. DUH!!

Graphs can be deceiving which is why statistical calculations are needed. For instance, on typical CO2/temp graphs by warmers, they fit the scaling to make it appear CO2 and temperature are in lockstep. However, the math doesn't lie:

Notice the R2 correlation?




Since you apparently refuse to read the Briggs article, here is how he analyzed the RSS data:
 
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Graphs can be deceiving which is why statistical calculations are needed. For instance, on typical CO2/temp graphs by warmers, they fit the scaling to make it appear CO2 and temperature are in lockstep.

Nobody would suggest that CO2 and temperature will be in lockstep. What CO2 does is disturb an equilibrium; the effect is cumulative, so there's necessarily a lag. Given the noise in both CO2 accumulation and weather, and no precedents to go on, any such suggestion would be crazy.

However, the math doesn't lie:

Notice the R2 correlation?

What is R2, and why is it so important? I'm not much cop at statistics.
 
Coming from someone who thinks statistics is not science and Siberia is warm, one can't expect much thought.

I think Siberians have their own peculiar base-line for "warm". It may not be the saem as yours. There's a thought.

Megaladon, is it warming? You really don't know much about constructing graphs for analysis do you?

Do what now?

The only point of a graph in even it's simplest form is to present a view of information. Megalodon does that with great skill and artistry.

Does this make it bit more understandable?

This style you have of talking down to people, it's really doing you no favours.
 
The king is not wearing any clothes. I'm continually disappointed that you all do not realize that.

-Dr. Imago

Fortunately, nobody cares.

How are you getting on with the design of Dr Imago's Box for the Grand Simple Experiment? "A box" is easy to say, but if every box was easy to make we'd have fusion power on-line by now.
 
No offense Megalodon, you can't analyze much by using a simple trend. If you'd bother reading Briggs material, you would learn that, but you have no interest in statistical analysis. Of course you can still claim it's warming for the next 20 years even with the negative trend continuing the entire time. DUH!!

Graphs can be deceiving which is why statistical calculations are needed. For instance, on typical CO2/temp graphs by warmers, they fit the scaling to make it appear CO2 and temperature are in lockstep. However, the math doesn't lie:
Notice the R2 correlation? http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/imagehosting/thum_1032347c0b9baf2fdc.jpg

Since you apparently refuse to read the Briggs article, here is how he analyzed the RSS data:
http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/imagehosting/thum_1032347bb4ab9ab569.jpg

Briggs is entertaining.
 
Fortunately, nobody cares.

Geeze, you are as bitter here as you are on the other (John Coleman) thread where you personally attack me, as if I am the only one who contradicts you. Now I see on this thread you are playing defense.:D

Get a life Mr. Chartman.
 
No offense Megalodon, you can't analyze much by using a simple trend. If you'd bother reading Briggs material, you would learn that, but you have no interest in statistical analysis. Of course you can still claim it's warming for the next 20 years even with the negative trend continuing the entire time. DUH!!

Graphs can be deceiving which is why statistical calculations are needed. For instance, on typical CO2/temp graphs by warmers, they fit the scaling to make it appear CO2 and temperature are in lockstep. However, the math doesn't lie:

Notice the R2 correlation?

http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/imagehosting/thum_1032347c0b9baf2fdc.jpg


Since you apparently refuse to read the Briggs article, here is how he analyzed the RSS data:
http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/imagehosting/thum_1032347bb4ab9ab569.jpg

[Frank Sinatra]1998, it was a very good year.[/1998]

If you bother to read the IPCC report, Understanding and Attributing Climate Change, they don't think it's very simple or direct at all. You should read it.
 

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