I've seen some discussion of the shrewdness of Saddam in a couple of threads. Basically, there is the belief that he had to be very shrewd to survive as a dictator for as long as he did. This belief carries over into his handling of the situation of the past year. However, in what I've seen discussed, I don't think it's really been considered just how shrewd he might have been (and still be?). Consider the following scenarios that all may have shaped his thinking about how to handle the current situation:
Assumptions:
Scenarios:
Assumptions:
- He was anti-US -- particularly so after GW1.
- He was probably dealing with many of the terrorist factions in the region and was probably particularly active with Al Quaida.
- He had chemical and/or biological WMDs, but probably not of the class of the superpowers (ie. significant, but something the US could deal with).
- He was actively pursuing nuclear WMDs, but most likely did not have them yet. Some of the infrastructure was probably beginning to be put into place.
- After GW1, he prepares for possible future war(s) by building safehouses, reinforced bunkers, secret depots, etc., for the purpose of protecting his power in a war that he probably knows he cannot outright win, but may be able to survive.
Scenarios:
- The UN weapons inspectors return to search for WMDs. They are an annoyance and prevent Saddam from doing anything big, but he can deal with the situation and hide his terrorist connections and WMDs. The inspection process goes on for sometime, but eventually the world should tire of it because nothing serious is found. Saddam can afford to wait the inspectors out and can continually push to have the sanctions lifted.
- The US adds it's weight to the inspection process with troops off the border and further resolutions in the UN. The annoyance level goes up signficantly for Saddam and he must take further measures to prevent his secrets from getting out and eroding his support in the world community (such as it is). For Saddam, having the US lose face in the world may be more important than maintaining all of his WMDs, so he may choose to secretly destroy some to prevent their detection.
- The US, thinking Saddam will get away with something, refuses to back down, puts it's credibility on the line, and begins the invasion. Saddam now has the choice of using his WMDs and immediately losing his credibility on the world stage (particularly the Arab world) or moving everything to bunkers and attempting to ride out the storm. His army and country will be decimated in the war, but, if no WMDs are found, the UN might declare the US attack a breach of international law and, thus, pave the way for him to return to power with international backing (to some degree).
- Saddam becomes a direct target of the US war machine. Command and control of the Iraqi army has probably been decimated such that use of WMDs to any significant degree are out of the question (since he'd have to pull them out of secret bunkers and coordinate getting them to field troops). He knows he's going to be killed or captured, so his options are to think about how he wants to go out. Martyrdom, in the Islamic culture, seems to have a lot of value and, so, if he can get rid of his remaining WMDs, there is a good chance that the US will wind up looking like an agressor to many in the Middle East regardless of what happens to him. If he can disappear, he might be able to draw on secret reserves from his terrorist connections and, although no longer a power, be able to watch and laugh at the US efforts to find the (now non-existent) WMDs and save face in the world community.