How does the test taker verify the results?

[Soapy Sam]

One mistake I have seen the skeptics here make repeatedly is that they make the uneducated judgment that because a person has skill X, they ought to be able to call on skill X whenever they wish. As much as you all hate this fact, it just doesn't work like that. ...

That's perfectly possible and you are right that in such a case the JREF challenge is not the best tool for testing it. But remember what the challenge actually is. It is a challenge to the claimant to demonstrate an ability which he claims to have and claims the ability to prove. If he cannot do that, he has no business applying for the money.

Also- becase an effect is not under 24/7 control does not mean it is untestable-
For example in the case of a prophetic dreamer he should be keeping detailed records of the dreams as they occur, having the records notarised and awaiting the outcome. He should also record all dreams , so he has a percentage of proven to unproven. (Of course he might argue that they all come true somewhere, somewhen , but he may never learn of it) The strange thing is that very few people who think they have a gift of any sort seem to take these sort of elementary actions. They just know they are right. We are guilty of hubris too, as you infer, but we do try to gather the data first.

Of course, there has to be some basis for figuring out who is for real and who isn't, but I think this organization's complete lack of neutrality on the subject (neutrality would be reasonable) may be leading to making it impossible to prove even for people with a legitimate ability.

Neutrality would not be reasonable. Remember who JREF actually is. It's James Randi. A career stage magician.* He , after a lifetime in the entertainment business, has seen many tricks. When he saw those tricks being misapplied to earn money by fraud, he was disgusted . He started the challenge precisely to weed out cheats. That is it's function. It was never intended to take a neutral, scientific stance.
There are many genuine parapsychological researchers out there, some of whom at least start neutral but interested. Sadly, the more reearch they do, the less neutral they tend to become.
By far the majority tend to conclude there is simply nothing there to find. They move on to other work. There are few scientists so objective that they will spend a lifetime hunting for evidence of something they are increasingly sure does not exist.
By definition, those who stay in psychical research tend to be those who believe there is something to it. Some are fools. Some are frauds. Some may genuinely be on to something. I can only give my personal opinion here. The evidence I have seen is very, very poor. Your mileage may vary.

* Incidental edit to add- it's easy to confuse JREF with the JREF forum. The forum has nothing to do with the foundation in terms of administering the challenge. I think you know this, but other lurkers may not.


But I know you don't believe that, so back to our regularly scheduled programming (which for me is going to the gym).

Excellent. What do you think of Pilates ?

 

[Timothy]

As you may have surmised, I already somewhat suspect that most here have their minds made up to force people to prove what is essentially a non-existent event in their minds, and so I really have no investment in whether anyone here does or does not believe that I occasionally have genuinely premonitory dreams.

1. You shouldn't be surprised that an audience comprised of skeptics will be skeptical. You have an extraordinary claim. We see many other "normal" explanations. We require more than anecdotal evidence before we believe in a extraordinary explanation. If you don't want to be dismissed outright, you have to show some evidence. Sorry, but relating a story doesn't count.

2. You said in your first post that you value scientific reasoning and logic. I would think that you would see why anyone else requires more than anecdotal proof. If you are interested in a serious investigation, we will assist you. (I will, at least.)

3. Since your premonitions are only occasional, you must admit that it's a hard claim to test. Hard, but not impossible. You don't seem to know the extent of the phenomenon...we can only surmise secondhand from your descriptions, so don't be surprised when suggestions are made that don't fit with your gut feelings of what's going on.

4. The key in any of this is to come up with a method that both you and a skeptical proctor agree will show what you claim. A goal would be to make an informal test as simple as possible, so that it can be determined whether a phenomenon exists or not without wasting resources. There are millions of people who claim to have paranormal powers...it's easy to claim paranormal powers; to show that it is worth the effort to expend resources examining your claim, positive results from an informal test would go a long way.

5. Suggested method: post your dreams here. Create a thread in which you post the details of your dreams, and afterwards any events that you think the dream presaged. If you had posted your September 9th dream here *on September 9th*, you would have raised some eyebrows given the number of correlating images. If a significant correlation occurs between one of your posted dreams and a future event (to the level of detail in your 9/9 dream), unlikely to be caused by coincidence, you'll have some people paying attention...even if it only happens in one out of a hundred dreams.

6. If you're willing to look at the phenomenon objectively, you'll have the respect of at least some of the people here. But if you've already made your mind up that the audience won't give you a fair hearing, then you're guilty of the same lack of objectivity and neutrality that you're accusing us of.

- Timothy

 

[dubious]

For an some enlightening information about the reality of dreaming, I suggest you peruse Scientific American, volume 12 Number 1: The hidden Mind.
The scientific facts pertaining to our ability to dream are far more interesting than anything the paranormal has (incorrectly) imagined.
"knowledge of science is inverse to belief in the 'supernatural'".

 

[joller]

I already somewhat suspect that most here have their minds made up to force people to prove what is essentially a non-existent event in their minds

You make the claim - you need to prove it. And even though you're not entering a claim for the JREF prize, you still claimed you've got paranormal powers, so you ARE a claimant in that sense.
Forgive me for being skeptical about it to start with, but your claim is really dodgy.
There were no planes in your dream, and what you described is what many people get afer playing too much computer games. You might have also been thinking about ie. Columbine the day before etc. To assume you had a premonition about 9/11 after what you postedis a big leap of faith.

One mistake I have seen the skeptics here make repeatedly is that they make the uneducated judgment that because a person has skill X, they ought to be able to call on skill X whenever they wish

1. How is that claim 'uneducated'- there is no proof those powers even exist! What's there to be educated about - what, anecdotes and hearsay?

. As much as you all hate this fact, it just doesn't work like that.

Tell that to divinrs, te X-ray girl, John Edward, Syvia Brown, Ui Geller etc - it works ALL the time for them. They even got TV shows, where they can do that at say 9 pm every week!

I hate the fact that it doesn't work like that.

What I hate even more is that i doesnt work at all.
It just isn't that way.
You'be got no supernatural powers. Get over it.

Of course, there has to be some basis for figuring out who is for real and who isn't, but I think this organization's complete lack of neutrality on the subject (neutrality would be reasonable) may be leading to making it impossible to prove even for people with a legitimate ability.

No one has ever proven to have any legitimate ability, after all, this is what's it all about! It's up to you to negotiate a protocol that will demonstrate without a doubt the powers you have.
Look at the protocols designed to date - no bias in them. Sometimes JREF even went out of their way to accomodate all the ridiculous wishes the claimants might have had!

But I know you don't believe that, so back to our regularly scheduled programming (which for me is going to the gym).

I don't believe that, you're right. Please prove me wrong.
Post one dream when you get it, with your thoughts on what you think it predicts, and when will the prediction come true.

 

[Godmode]

I think a lot of people who are believers think that skeptics don't want the paranormal to be true. That's not always the case. Personally, I would love it if there was scientific evidence for the paranormal. I honestly would. Who doesn't want magic to be real? But it's not. So there's no point in pretending it is. But if I'm wrong about that, then science will prove it one day, and I will accept the results.
Being a skeptic does not mean you ignore evidence. It means you look for it.

 

[ChristineR]

One mistake I have seen the skeptics here make repeatedly is that they make the uneducated judgment that because a person has skill X, they ought to be able to call on skill X whenever they wish. As much as you all hate this fact, it just doesn't work like that. I hate the fact that it doesn't work like that.

This is simply not true. For simple tests like the coin flip, consistently getting 6 out of ten, 51 out of a hundred, even 501 out of a thousand is testable--you'd just have to make, many, many tests to be sure you had eliminated chance.
50,100,000 out of 100,000,000 would be enough to get you the million if there were some way to run 100,000,000 tests, which there really isn't.

As far as your dreams, one simple test would be to write down every dream that you feel is "signifgant." Then for the next week, write down the ten most important news events of the week. (Ideally you would get someone who doesn't know your dream to do this, or use a news blog or TV show that already does this sort of thing.) After you have ten dreams and 100 events, show the dreams and the events to someone and have him match the weeks with the dreams.

The trick is that you must set the numerical rules up beforehand. If something that really matches your dream happens on day eight, tough. Dump the test and try again with a two week interval. If the 11th most interesting news of the weeks looks exactly right, dump the test and start over with the twenty most important news events. The reason for this is that you will always find a good match if you look long enough.

 

[Soapy Sam]

And keep track of both hits and misses. You described a dream about a building during a crisis. What did you dream about the night before? Do you remember, or did you just remember the one that later events appeared to reinforce?

 

[Flange Desire]

That's an interesting conclusion. It may be so. It does beg the question though: what is JREF's most pressing concern: that their universal view is confirmed and people live entirely in the realm of physical reality, or that a tape proving otherwise might be worth a lot of money?

Neither. The JREF's most pressing concern is education.
The view that people live entirely in the realm of physical reality is well supported by the available evidence, and a tape proving otherwise would be worth more than you can ever dream.

As an objective, or at least bi-partisan, outsider looking in, I think this site comes across as more committed to proving all cases to be false than I think you might realize

Don't worry about mere appearences or opinions.
Just show your evidence.
Money, kudos, Nobel prizes - all these await the successful claimant.

 

[Ashles]

Just for the sake of telling a story, I had a dream on September 9th, 2001 about a building full of terrified people who were running from someone

In 9/11 no-one in the buildings was running from anyone.

who was shooting at all of them and killing many,

There was no shooting in the buildings

also blowing up bombs in some areas,

There were no bombs

for no reason other than unbridled hatred, as the people were running up and down the stairs in a dark building. Eventually, it turned out that I was playing two roles in the dream. I was the attacker, and I was part of the group running. At a point, the building started to crumble, and someone said, "We have to get over to the other building before she reaches us."

Who is 'she'? This sounds like the dream is describing a very specific threat from a female person.

I said, "What other building?" The man said, "If you walk across that catwalk, it connects this building to another one that's exactly identical to it." They started to run when the catwalk collapsed and the other building started to come down.

A catwalk would not be relevent as, if you were on the third or fourth floor, you would probably be running down and out of the building rather than across to another one.

Why can you accept the hits in the dream and ignore the misses?

I have had recurring dreams about being trapped in skyscrapers that were similar to your dream, but with less of the misses, but I don't interpret them as prophetic, merely some of the thousands and thousands of random dreams I have had.

 

[joller]

Who is 'she'? This sounds like the dream is describing a very specific threat from a female person.

she said:
I was the attacker, and I was part of the group running.
It was her. People were trying to get away from her.
What's even more worrying, is that she was running away from herself as well.

 

[Spidey13]

I think the most important question is: Was Kaz there?

 

[opqdan]

Skeptics do need to keep an open mind and accept that there are somethings that occur that cannot (yet) be explained completely. A problem occurs when one opens their mind so much that their brain falls out. The default position is that there has to be some sort of non-paranormal reason for the phenomena. For claims like yours, this default position is that you may be deluding yourself into believing you can predict the future based on vague dreams.

An open mind does not require that all hypothesis are deemed equal. I doubt you believe in leprechauns or Santa Claus, but you must agree that no evidence has been found to disprove their existence. You should be able to see from this example that the default skeptic position is that the phenomena does not exist. I run into this a lot with discussions with my friends about atheism vs. agnosticism (not to turn this into a theology thread, just making a point). They contend that by calling myself an atheist I am putting faith in there being no god, whereas an agnostic says that the question cannot be answered. Do my friends call themselves "leprechaun agnostics", "santa claus agnistics" and "invisible pink unicorn agnostics"? Of course they do not, but why is it possible to say that they do not exist when there is no evidence, when the same cannot be said for other phenomena that are more widely accepted (theism, telepathy, clairvoyance). I will grant that all of these things (God, leperachauns, I.P. unicorns etc) could possibly exist, but without any sort of evidence they must be assumed not to. The same goes for predictions of the future.

On a separate note, have you really looked at your dream with a critical eye? One valid concern of mine is that your memory of the dream chaned when you head the WTC news. Unless you kept good records prior to the event, you have no way of knowing if your dream was changed to fit the event or not.

Also, what about the points of your dream that did not fit with the event? your dream of the event claims 5 discrete items: guns, bombs, 2 identical building, catwalk, collapse. Only 3 out of 5 of these items are correct (3/4 if you count guns and bombs as a single item), and I am not sure about the catwalk. I cannot find any information regarding a bridge across the lower floors, but I will assume that in such a building one would exist. The other items are rather vague. A real clincher would have been if you had dreamt of a plane causing the incident, something that seems to me would be a major component of a true premonition of the event. It looks to be suitably vague to fit almost any disaster (except for the 2 identical buildings). As another question, how many dreams have you had that did not come true?

I'm not trying to tell you that you are an idiot, or that you are a "crackpot", but I am trying to get you to critically look at your own claim (whether or not it is for the JREF prize) and decide whether it was truly a premonition. If so, I would request that you apply for the prize as soon as possible. Not for the money, but keeping this new knowledge of the universe to yourself, when it could help so many people (not to mention completely change how we look at science), is an extremly selfish thing to do.

 

[opqdan]

I think the most important question is: Was Kaz there?

Nah, I doubt she would have seen her. Kaz says she was stuck in the elevator where she received the <echo effect>"Rock of Jesus"</echo effect>. The OP only mentions stairs.

 

[chillzero]

Also, what about the points of your dream that did not fit with the event? your dream of the event claims 5 discrete items: guns, bombs, 2 identical building, catwalk, collapse. Only 3 out of 5 of these items are correct (3/4 if you count guns and bombs as a single item), and I am not sure about the catwalk. I cannot find any information regarding a bridge across the lower floors, but I will assume that in such a building one would exist. The other items are rather vague. A real clincher would have been if you had dreamt of a plane causing the incident, something that seems to me would be a major component of a true premonition of the event. It looks to be suitably vague to fit almost any disaster (except for the 2 identical buildings). As another question, how many dreams have you had that did not come true?

There were no bombs.
To the best of my knowledge (I am open to being proved wrong here) there were no guns either.

So - 2 buildings. a collapse. that's it.
I did raise the comparison of the dream to actual events earlier, but seem to have been 'overlooked'.

 

[RSLancastr]

I saw a post that presented a screening question to a person claiming to have a gift...reading minds I think it was.

both_sides, please understand that only a small percentage of the posts on this forum are official JREF posts. The vast majority of them are just the thoughts and opinions of people, such as yourself, who use the board.

So, unless the post was one in which Kramer quoted his correspondence with a potential claimant, the "screening question" you mention was just the suggestion of a fellow board member, and NOT an "official JREF" screening.

Also, you are correct thqat some of the people here don't want to see anyone beat the Million Dollar Challenge, but I believe they are in the minority.

Welcome!

[snip]

Of course!

[snip]

If the claimant is honest and the talent is real, the challenge rules are a trifle! The true ability to, say, read minds, would have no trouble at all with the challenge rules--especially since the procedure is determined by both the JREF and the challenger!

[snip]

A very good question indeed!

[snip]

You are quite right to raise such a concern, and I hope you will be happy to hear that the protocol does indeed address this concern! As well it should! And it is addressed at all stages! Take a look at the challenge FAQ sheet, and if you see any problems, please point them out!

Merc, please do not use up all of the exclamation points, as some of the rest of us might want to use a few.

Welcome to the forums! I assume you will be applying for the million dollar prize! How amazing it will be when somebody finally wins it!

Never mid Merc, strathmeyer found another box of 'em.

I think the most important question is: Was Kaz there?

Maybe Kaz was the "she" everyone was running from?

 

[LotusMegami]

I for one would love to have paranormal powers.

Not just for money, or to prove something about the physical world, which I don't understand because everything real is physical by definition...

I just think it would be awesome to have telepathy, or ESP, or healing powers.

That's why sci-fi and fantasy exists. Because having powers would be cool.

If however, I should someday believe that I possess magic powers, but cannot prove it, I will assume it need professional help.

 

[GzuzKryzt]

Perhaps you should rename yourself as "Thread Bumper".

 

[alfaniner]

Just for the sake of telling a story, I had a dream on September 9th, 2001 about a building full of terrified people who were running from someone who was shooting at all of them and killing many, also blowing up bombs in some areas, for no reason other than unbridled hatred, as the people were running up and down the stairs in a dark building. .
..

A lot of that already happened at the World Trade Center, in 1993.

 

[LotusMegami]

Me? A thread bumper? My post was entirely on topic.

Skeptics don't want for the paranormal to not exist. What we want doesn't matter. Believing that I have superpowers won't give me superpowers.

Now, the posts I have made asking for recipes for red beans and rice - which no one ever answered - or just saying "Hitler" to Godwin the thread, that it intended to be disrespectful.