How do we know a pandemic's over?

[Gawdzilla Sama]

Ask Ozymandias when something's over?

 

[dann]

Head-to-head comparison suggests flu was much more likely to lead to hospitalization than COVID last winter (CIDRAP, June 15, 2026)
During the most recent respiratory virus season, the risk of hospitalization was higher for influenza than for COVID-19, per a US Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) study of nearly 13,000 patients.
(...)
“The higher severity associated with seasonal influenza during this season likely reflects a combination of factors, including the increased virulence of circulating influenza strains, mismatch between vaccine composition and dominant circulating influenza variants, and the continued attenuation of SARS-CoV-2 severity over successive waves,” the researchers wrote.

Seasonal influenza versus COVID-19 hospitalisation risk during the 2025–26 influenza season (Lancet, June 10, 2026)

I would like to see the number of C19 and flu deaths. In San Diego, C19 deaths still outnumber flu deaths:

Respiratory Viruses Data and Reports (San Diego County, June 10, 2026)
Total deaths season-to-date:
C19 89
Flu 73
RSV 12

 

[dann]

I's been a while.
In , it's still very low.

However, in some areas in :

Mike Hoerger on X, July 7, 2026
COVlD has been circulating at high/very high levels in Central/SE Texas. The Houston Chronicle has shared the PMC warning.
The situation in Houston is extremely uncertain and may be very bad -- will update soon.
(Link in next)
H/T @SHEMBR

Mike Hoerger on X, Jun 25, 2026
Central/SE #Texas have been on fire w/COVlD for 21 days.
Levels are extremely high in College Station, followed by near Houston, then Waco.
The CDC defines Texas as "very low" because 52% of wastewater sites are very low. That misses the public health opportunity.

With a 3-min. video.

 

[dann]

:

CyFi on X, Aug 1, 2026
SF reports 5.3% COVID positivity, highest since September 28!

still very low, but higher than June and early July.
Deaths: April: 5, May: 2, June: 1, July: 1.

 

[dann]

California Department of Public Health on X, July 24, 2026
Going on a trip? Don’t let COVID-19 crash your summer plans. Wearing an N95 mask protects you from respiratory viruses like COVID-19.
Consider wearing a mask in indoor and crowded places like airports and planes.
Learn more: http://go.cdph.ca.gov/respiratory-viruses

 

[dann]

:

Is there a summer COVID-19 surge this year? Yep, it's ramping up again (npr, Aug 14, 2026)
"We're now in the midst of a growing summer surge of COVID here in the United States," says Dr. John Brooks, an infectious disease doctor at Emory University in Atlanta, Ga., who used to work at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. "I think most of us kind of feel like it's fading away and are certainly very grateful for that. But nationally we're seeing it ticking up pretty much everywhere."

The number of new cases in Denmark decreased a little this week, and no more deaths since the one in July.

still very low, but higher than June and early July.
Deaths: April: 5, May: 2, June: 1, July: 1.

 

[theprestige]

Ask Ozymandias when something's over?

More like Zeno. Dann has ushered us into the age of Zeno's Covid.

 

[Roger Ramjets]

:
Is there a summer COVID-19 surge this year? Yep, it's ramping up again (npr, Aug 14, 2026)
"We're now in the midst of a growing summer surge of COVID here in the United States," says Dr. John Brooks, an infectious disease doctor at Emory University in Atlanta, Ga., who used to work at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. "I think most of us kind of feel like it's fading away and are certainly very grateful for that. But nationally we're seeing it ticking up pretty much everywhere."

Oh great. My brother is leaving for California today. Hope he doesn't come back with an unwanted passenger.

 

[dann]

Oh great. My brother is leaving for California today. Hope he doesn't come back with an unwanted passenger.

Californa doesn't look good, but some states are worse off than that:

Mike Hoerger on X, Aug 15, 2026
Early Edition: PMC COVlD Update, Week of Aug 17, 2026 (US)
15 states/territories with COVlD outbreaks
Worst in CA, AK, HI, TX, GU
Reporting irregularities in TX
2.2 million estimated infections/week
1 in 144 people estimated infectious
Details: See Alt text.
(1/4)

It may be time to look at San Diego again.

 

[dann]

San Diego:

Respiratory Viruses Data and Reports (Health & Human Services Agency, SanDiegoCounty.gov, Aug 12, 2026)
COVID-19 Hospitalizations, June 14, 2026 – August 8, 2026
COVID-19 Deaths, May 24, 2026 – July 18, 2026
COVID-19 Tests, June 14, 2026 – August 8, 2026

Hospitalizations: Few, but definitely rising since July 18
Deaths: Very few (3 in all), but apparently rising (2 in the most recent week, July 18)
Test positivity 9.7%: Rising since June 20 and very high in comparison to : 1.2%

 

[dann]

:

COVID is ‘growing’ in nearly every state, CDC reports. Here’s where levels are highest (NewsBreak, Aug 19, 2026)
Don't be surprised if you start hearing some more coughing in the next few weeks. COVID-19 is once again on the rise in nearly every corner of the U.S.
According to modeling done by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, "COVID-19 infections are growing or likely growing in 50 states." No states are seeing cases decline, as of mid-August.
Despite the trend, the CDC says severe cases are still pretty rare. Emergency department visits related to COVID are "very low."

Cases of COVID Growing, with a ‘Pretty Steady Increase’ Nationwide. Here’s When the Surge Is Expected to Peak (People, Aug 19, 2026)
There are at least 15 outbreaks of the respiratory illness across the country
“We’ve been seeing a pretty steady increase since late June across the (U.S.). So far in August, SARS-CoV-2 concentrations are up 106% compared to July 2026,” Amanda Bidwell, WastewaterSCAN scientific program manager, told the outlet.

Mike Hoerger on X, Aug 21, 2026
CDC national map:
https://cdc.gov/wastewater/respiratory-viruses/national.html?cove-tab=1
CDC state-level maps (use drop down menu):
https://cdc.gov/wastewater/respiratory-viruses/state.html?cove-tab=1

cdc.gov
National Wastewater Data for Respiratory Viruses
View national wastewater viral activity data for Influenza A, COVID-19, and RSV.

Mike Hoerger on X, Aug 20, 2026

Mike Hoerger on X, Aug 16, 2026
BREAKING
On Friday, the US CDC arbitrarily shifted higher COVlD levels into lower categories depicted with cooler colors.
Much of what was Very High is now "High." What was High is now "Moderate" or "Low." Low is "Very Low."
2 states/territories artificially shifted from High to Moderate (MS, GU)
5 shifted from Moderate to Low (CA, TX, AK, WA, NV)
4 shifted from Low to Very Low (AZ, AR, LA, NC)

The actual tweet is much longer and includes a short video (3 min.) about this new 'bluewashing' of the presentation of pandemic facts.

 

[dann]

, Florida:

Classes at Park Ridge Achievement Academy canceled Friday as COVID cases increase (Louisiana First News on YouTube, Aug 21, 2026 – min.)
The City of Baker School System released a notice stating that Park Ridge Achievement Academy classes will be canceled Friday due to a rise in COVID-19 cases.

 

[dann]

Very low but rising. Notice the difference between COVID-19 and influenza; the latter much more seasonal.

Jeff Gilchrist on bsky, Aug 23, 2026
*** Ontario Virus Update | Aug 23 ***
Hospitalizations due to COVID continue to increase from 18 to 26 in the last update. Influenza hospitalizations increased from 5 to 8 and RSV finally dropped to 0 for the past two updates. 1/
#Ontario #Virus #COVID #Hospital #Wastewater
https://bsky.app/#

Notice the per-capita number for babies! Almost as high as 85+:

Jeff Gilchrist on bsky, Aug 23, 2026
While age 80+ has the highest COVID cases rates per 100k population so far this year, infants <1 have the second highest rate, almost as high as age 80+ and almost 5x higher than the next closest rate age 60-79. 7/
https://bsky.app/#

 

[dann]

Mike Hoerger on bsky, Aug 24, 2026
California is on fire with COVlD.

Jonathan Howard on bsky, Aug 25, 2026

 

[dann]

Mike Hoerger on bsky, Aug 24, 2026
PMC COVlD Update, Aug 24, 2026
The US is experiencing COVlD outbreaks in 23 states/territories (see Alt text).
Largest outbreaks: TX, CA, HI, AK

1 in 136 Americans estimated actively infectious

Highest levels since March 20th
Website: pmc19.comhttps://pmc19.com/
Interactive map: pmc19.com/interactive.php

 

[dann]

, Texas; for Florida, see post 1,592:

CBS 4 News on X, Aug 24, 2026
San Perlita ISD closes campuses, offices due to rapid COVID-19 spread

San Perlita ISD closes campuses, offices due to rapid COVID-19 spread (Valley Central, Local News, Aug 24, 2026)
San Perlita Independent School District announced Monday that it will cancel school operations for two days due to a rapid spread of COVID-19 within the district.
According to a news release, the district will close all campuses and offices on Tuesday, Aug. 25 and Wednesday, Aug. 26, as a precautionary measure to “help protect the health and safety” of students and staff.

It appears to be a school-opening thing. This one is two years old:
San Perlita ISD cancels classes due to COVID-19 cases (KVEO, Aug 21, 2024 – 25 sec.)

More like Zeno. Dann has ushered us into the age of Zeno's Covid.

What's your point? What have I ushered you (and jt512, apparently) into?

 

[theprestige]

What's your point?

That you have ushered us into the age of Zeno's Covid.

What have I ushered you (and jt512, apparently) into?

The age of Zeno's Covid.

Why do you ask?

What's your point?

 

[dann]

Why Are Pharmacies Turning Away People Who Want Vaccines? (The Thom Hartmann Program on YouTube, Aug 26, 2026 – 9:19 min.)
My wife Louise went to the local pharmacy yesterday to get her Covid shot because Covid is climbing in all fifty states right now.
She was turned away, because there’s no current Covid vaccine available anywhere in America.
This isn’t a minor risk to us all, and should be a national scandal.

0:17–> It’s baffling that the media is ignoring it, particularly given the consequences.
A Nature study published this month from Boston Children’s Hospital found that severe COVID reactivates other dormant viruses already quietly living inside us, including Epstein-Barr, cytomegalovirus, and herpes simplex. They noted up to 50,000 Americans died of COVID in the 2025–2026 respiratory season, and over 10 million Americans are living with debilitating long COVID.
An earlier Nature paper out of the University of Colorado found that COVID infections can wake up dormant cancer cells sleeping in the lungs, roughly doubling the probability that lung cancer survivors will die of that cancer.

2:17–> The wave this year is particularly bad, most likely because so many people haven’t gotten their boosters and so their immunity has waned.[/hilite]

 

[dann]

Covid-19 Cases Surge—Here’s What’s Different This Summer That Will Help (Forbes, Aug 27, 2026)
With this summer’s surge in COVID-19 infections underway, there are some new things to be aware of.
First is what Michael Hoerger, Ph.D., a Covid mitigation and forecasting expert at Tulane University, describes as “bluewashing,” with the CDC downgrading the colors and rankings on its Covid maps. As he noted, “Much of what was Very High is now "High." What was High is now "Moderate" or "Low." Low is "Very Low." Hoerger continues, “This time, there was no alert and no explanation.

An important thing that might help is vaccines, but ...

Just as with annual changes to flu vaccines, the composition of the COVID-19 vaccine needs to change as new variant strains emerge. This year, the target will be the XFG variant, still a descendant of the JN.1 lineage, as was last year’s, which targeted the LP.8.1 variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus.
It is unclear when the FDA will authorize the updated vaccine. They have not responded to my inquiry.

 

[dann]

Mike Hoerger on X, Aug 28, 2026
If you live in Louisiana and occasionally mask, RESUME MASKING TODAY.
CDC classifies LA as "moderate" but recently downshifted all labels. Current levels meet prior criteria for "high." Levels higher on the east bank than west. Likely very high near TX.

Mike Hoerger on X, Aug 28, 2026
Put your mask on, Seattle.