How do we know a pandemic's over?

[dann]

It's much the same picture in .

 

[dann]

Those pesky car crash deaths revisited:

Bravo!
You're not going to be popular, introducing common sense like that. (and bonus points for mentioning car deaths!)
Another point I think is clearly way above the heads of the panicking brigade, if we ask people to wear masks when the threat is absurdly low, good luck trying to get them to wear masks if a really deadly virus arises.

USA:

COVID-19 Pandemic and the Increase in Fatal Car Crashes – What Happened (The Sorenson Law Firm, Sep 8, 2025)
During the COVID-19 pandemic, traffic fatalities rose sharply: 38,680 deaths in 2020 (a 7.2% increase from 2019), 42,915 in 2021 (the highest since 2005), and 42,514 in 2022, all well above pre-pandemic levels according to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.
(...)
Car Crash Deaths 2020
Despite less traffic across the U.S., 2020 car accident deaths surged.
NHTSA (National Highway Traffic Safety Administration) estimated that 38,680 people were killed in crashes in 2020, which is a 7.2% rise from 2019, and reported that the fatality rate per 100 million VMT (vehicle miles traveled) climbed despite a 13.2% decrease in miles traveled [1].
Car Crash Deaths 2021
As we moved into 2021, the increase in traffic fatalities became more alarming: about 42,915 fatalities, marking a 10.5% jump from the previous year and the highest tally since 2005. This rise likely could be due to the 11.2% increase of VMT compared to 2020 [2].
Car Crash Deaths 2022
In 2022, the number of people killed held near this elevated level with 42,514 fatalities, which is a modest dip from 2021 but still far above pre-pandemic levels [3].

In comparison to COVID-19 deaths by the end of 2022: 1.08 million!!!
Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the USA, Mar 10, 2020 to Dec 31, 2022 (Our World in Data)

if we ask people to wear seat belts for short low-speed trips in the cities and suburbs, good luck trying to get them to wear seat belts when driving fast on the highway.

A recent CIDRAP article reminded me of the comparison, but notice that it doesn't compare the number of car crash deaths and C19 deaths.
It compares the number of car crash deaths with deaths from all healthcare-associated infections - not just C19 infections:

CIDRAP on X, Feb 20, 2026
Report underscores death toll of health care-related infectionsI
Infections acquired in health care settings kill three times more people than car accidents each year.

Report underscores death toll of health care-related infections (CIDRAP, Feb 20, 2026)
Health care-associated infections (HAIs) are responsible for an estimated 6,774 deaths each year in Spain, according to a large study published yesterday in Eurosurveillance. That number is more than three times the number of deaths caused by car accidents in the country each year.
(...)
“HAIs constitute the most important complication for inpatients in Spain and while not being an official cause of death, the number of deaths they resulted in was comparable to other relevant causes, such as road traffic accidents (1,750) or breast cancer (6,492),” write the authors. “Given that 50% of HAIs are considered preventable, it is reasonable to expect that, with full implementation and compliance with infection prevention and control measures, up to half of HAI-related deaths could be avoided.”

Attributable mortality to healthcare-associated infections:  a comprehensive nationwide assessment in Spain, 2022 and 2023 (Eurosurveillance, Feb 19, 2026)

 

[marting]

In San Diego County, Since the Dec 31 report to the March 5th report there have been 10 C19 deaths, but 37 Flu deaths showing the serious Flu winter peak. 7 of the Flu deaths have been below 65 y/o. There have been 0 deaths from C19 in the same group. All the 10 C19 deaths were >= 65 Y/O.

Covid continues its pattern of affecting older folks. Interestingly, Current C19 vaxes are only about 1/3 of Flu Vaxes.

 

[Roger Ramjets]

And you thought it was over...
Ninth wave of Covid-19 suggests wane in immunity

Covid-19 was being tracked through wastewater and hospitalisations - which were currently showing a "big wave"... With booster uptake falling and little tracking of long Covid, experts are warning the real impact of the virus may still be underestimated... this wave wasn't following the pattern of a new subvariant emerging, which suggested a wane in immunity...

Which reminds me that it's time for another booster, and a flu vaccine too. I was going to do it at the end of February, but caught a cold and wanted to fully recover first (yes, I did test for Covid and was clear. Had to throw away a box of RATs which were expired, but still have 5 current tests left).

Baker said the virus was still New Zealand's most impactful infectious disease - equating to about 1000 deaths a year - compared to influenza which accounted for about 500.

Everybody seems to have forgotten about Covid, but I knew something was up when I checked the wastewater levels last week. What I didn't know was just how big an impact it's still having here - partly because nobody's reporting their infections. Good to see RNZ news keeping us informed.

 

[dann]

And you thought it was over...
Ninth wave of Covid-19 suggests wane in immunity

Which reminds me that it's time for another booster, and a flu vaccine too. I was going to do it at the end of February, but caught a cold and wanted to fully recover first (yes, I did test for Covid and was clear. Had to throw away a box of RATs which were expired, but still have 5 current tests left).
"Baker said the virus was still New Zealand's most impactful infectious disease - equating to about 1000 deaths a year - compared to influenza which accounted for about 500."
Everybody seems to have forgotten about Covid, but I knew something was up when I checked the wastewater levels last week. What I didn't know was just how big an impact it's still having here - partly because nobody's reporting their infections. Good to see RNZ news keeping us informed.

No, that can't be true! That's not what I've been told! The flu numbers seem to be right, though.

I posted this in the science thread yesterday.

Since the start of omicron, we've [NZ] had an official 11% of the population infected, and I'm going to err way on the side of caution and say the true numbers are 20%, or 1M cases. (I believe it's more like 40%, using absence numbers at schools and workplaces)
Of that million infections, we've never had over 1000 in hospital, with numbers dropping right now, and maximum 40 in ICU. Deaths are listed at 192, but that is all deaths where covid has been present within 28 days of death. The number confirmed to be as a result of covid is a whopping 43.
It's now abundantly clear that post-vaccination omicron is a very minor issue. The people dying have almost exclusively been very frail people, or as my Aussie mate says, people whose toe tags had already been printed. 'Flu deaths here are ~500 a year, and omicron's going to be much lower than that.Barring a new variant of concern, the pandemic is done and dusted.

I see nothing about long covid to dissuade me from that view, and omicron has shown that nothing will stop it, so the best plan is to ignore it. Masks are fine, but merely delay the inevitable. The evidence of harm among the vaccinated is sketchy and shows no major harm being done to more than a tiny fraction of people, if even that.

Haven't you heard the good news?! SARS-CoV-2 has been mild since early-2022!
You know, vax and relax, ignore it, let it rip, and don't delay the inevitable.

 

[dann]

In San Diego County, Since the Dec 31 report to the March 5th report there have been 10 C19 deaths, but 37 Flu deaths showing the serious Flu winter peak. 7 of the Flu deaths have been below 65 y/o. There have been 0 deaths from C19 in the same group. All the 10 C19 deaths were >= 65 Y/O.

Total deaths season-to-date, June 29, 2025 to Feb 28, 2026 (SanDiegoCounty.gov, Mar 5, 2026)

Covid-19: 78
Influenza: 42
RSV: 4

So the ratio is much like in Roger Ramjet's NZ numbers.

Covid continues its pattern of affecting older folks. Interestingly, Current C19 vaxes are only about 1/3 of Flu Vaxes.

Because the antivaxxer propaganda against mRNA vaccines has been successful?

 

[The Atheist]

Mild or wild, and regardless of the mortality rate, the pandemic is long over and covid is now an endemic disease.

 

[icerat]

Mild or wild, and regardless of the mortality rate, the pandemic is long over and covid is now an endemic disease.

can you give your definition of "pandemic" and "endemic"?

 

[Roger Ramjets]

Got my booster shot yesterday. I was told that this is a new version that just came out a few days ago, specifically targeting Omicron. Have to wait another 2 weeks to get the latest flu vaccine.

For those who think vaccines aren't necessary because just getting Covid every now and then will build immunity,

Each Covid-19 wave wrecks your health. Here's what you can do

University of Auckland associate professor and vaccinologist Helen Petousis-Harris says there's not enough awareness of the impact of Covid-19 on overall health.
"What many people don't realise is that getting Covid repeatedly is not like building immunity, it's more like accumulating damage," she says.
"Each infection raises your risk of long Covid and serious complications."

Anecdotally I have heard people say that the second time they got it was worse than the first, which confirms this.

The numbers of people coming in for booster vaccines has remained pretty steady, a staff member at East Auckland's Pohutukawa Coast Pharmacy says. "We see our regular crowd every six months," she says.
A worker at Napier's Unichem Taradale Pharmacy says they'd given a couple of boosters on Monday, and numbers also remained steady.
They say as it gets closer to winter they usually see an increase in people wanting to get a Covid-19 booster along with their flu shot.

Good to see that some people are still taking it seriously. The vaccines are free, so why not get them? They are getting quicker to administer too, as they don't make you wait so long after the injection. Used to be 20 minutes, then 15, 10 and now 5. I waited 10 minutes just to be sure. No after-effects either, as always.

 

[dann]

Mild or wild, and regardless of the mortality rate, the pandemic is long over and covid is now an endemic disease.

can you give your definition of "pandemic" and "endemic"?

I think endemic probably still means the same thing to The Atheist as four years ago, i.e. what his Aussie mate said back then:

I posted this in the science thread yesterday.

Since the start of omicron, we've [NZ] had an official 11% of the population infected, and I'm going to err way on the side of caution and say the true numbers are 20%, or 1M cases. (I believe it's more like 40%, using absence numbers at schools and workplaces)
Of that million infections, we've never had over 1000 in hospital, with numbers dropping right now, and maximum 40 in ICU. Deaths are listed at 192, but that is all deaths where covid has been present within 28 days of death. The number confirmed to be as a result of covid is a whopping 43.
It's now abundantly clear that post-vaccination omicron is a very minor issue. The people dying have almost exclusively been very frail people, or as my Aussie mate says, people whose toe tags had already been printed. 'Flu deaths here are ~500 a year, and omicron's going to be much lower than that.
Barring a new variant of concern, the pandemic is done and dusted.

I see nothing about long covid to dissuade me from that view, and omicron has shown that nothing will stop it, so the best plan is to ignore it. Masks are fine, but merely delay the inevitable. The evidence of harm among the vaccinated is sketchy and shows no major harm being done to more than a tiny fraction of people, if even that.

It is peculiar that The Atheist calls it endemic when one considers that "epidemiologists define endemicity technically as a stable, predictable level of disease transmission." As mentioned in post 1,545 his prediction four years ago is still far off the mark.

So I asked Google, What do Covid minimizers mean when they say endemic?
I got this reply:

When "COVID minimizers" or those advocating for a rapid return to pre-pandemic normalcy use the term "endemic," they generally mean that COVID-19 should be treated as a permanent, accepted, and managed part of daily life, similar to the seasonal flu or the common cold.

While epidemiologists define endemicity technically as a stable, predictable level of disease transmission, the colloquial usage by those minimizing the virus often carries different, more permissive implications.

Here is what is typically meant by this perspective:

• "Living with it" without restrictions: This perspective implies an end to widespread social disruption, such as mask mandates, social distancing, and isolation requirements.
• A "predictable" baseline: The view that, while the virus will continue to circulate, cases will rise and fall in a predictable, seasonal manner rather than causing unpredictable, massive waves.
• Lower severity (Assumed): It often assumes that through a combination of prior infection and vaccination, the virus will become significantly less dangerous for the majority of the population, even if it is still circulating.
• Acceptable level of harm: A shift in focus from trying to eliminate the virus to accepting a certain level of infection, hospitalization, and death as the new normal.

What Endemic Does Not Mean (Counterpoint)
Public health experts caution that using "endemic" to mean the end of the danger is a misconception. Diseases can be endemic and still be highly prevalent and dangerous, such as Malaria or TB. Endemic simply means a constant presence in a specific area, not necessarily a harmless or mild state.

As for Long Covid, The Atheist and like-minded people won the pandemic - thanks to Trump's MAGA and RFK Jr.'s MAHA - so it looks bleak:

Long COVID leaves thousands of L.A. County residents sick, broke and ignored (Los Angeles Times, Mar 14, 2026)
“The COVID-19 pandemic is over, and HHS will no longer waste billions of taxpayer dollars responding to a nonexistent pandemic that Americans moved on from years ago,” a Department of Health and Human Services spokesperson told the magazine Science.
Yet new COVID infections are producing new long COVID patients. People who were healthy and active just a few months ago are still arriving at USC’s clinic with cardiovascular and cognitive problems that have upended their lives.
“There has been a societal move to go past COVID as if it’s not around anymore — but it definitely is,” McAuley said. “If it’s not on people’s radar, it’s never going to be addressed. And people will bounce in and out of the ER, and they will potentially have a degree of disability [to] the point where they just lose their job, and no one really is addressing it.”

 

[icerat]

I'm still hoping @The Atheist will respond with his current understanding, or definitions, of the terms.

 

[marting]

Because the antivaxxer propaganda against mRNA vaccines has been successful?

Some evidence of that. Especially in 2025. In San Diego C19 current vax rates dropped to 10% from 14% the prior 2 years. Flu vax rates have remained fairly steady at about 30%.

 

[marting]

As for what exactly "endemic" means there's a wide range uses. The most common is when a novel disease that caused a pandemic or epidemic drops over time but continues to circulate indefinitely. This is often conflated with mildness but is more often used to indicate the disease continues to be present but has receded to the point that it no longer changes, or rather, continues to change people's social habits. But it also includes diseases that are quite severe but have been circulating for a long time and become part of the accepted environment.

Examples of endemic disease lasting centuries include (before vax) measles, polio, and smallpox. People lived (and died) from them. But there is a huge difference between them in severity. Smallpox was quite the killer. Polio is an interesting case because it was not really of much interest prior to the substantial improvement in sanitation in the 1800's. Infants or small children would get typically mild cases then have lifelong immunity. But it was much more severe for older kids and adults and became quite a problem after the turn of the last century as people weren't exposed to it until they were older.

Here's an article about how the Covid-19 pandemic could end based on other historical diseases:

How epidemics end - PMC

As COVID‐19 drags on and new vaccines promise widespread immunity, the world's attention has turned to predicting how the present pandemic will end. How do societies know when an epidemic is over and normal life can resume? What criteria and markers ...

pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

"Endemic" is mentioned frequently in the article. Here's a sample:

Indeed, many eradication campaigns have faced overwhelming obstacles because they identify and frame their target diseases as urgent problems, whereas the societies and governments in question accept them as endemic, and thus “normal” (if unpleasant) parts of life, compared to more pressing crises.

Focusing on how epidemics end is not simply a conceptual exercise, a narrative trick in which one views disease from a new perspective. Instead, it reveals the social and political processes by which a disease becomes endemic—that is, accepted—as well as who participates in that process and who is excluded.

 

[The Atheist]

can you give your definition of "pandemic" and "endemic"?

Srsly?

Endemic: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endemic_(epidemiology)

Pandemic: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandemic

 

[The Atheist]

Good to see that some people are still taking it seriously. The vaccines are free, so why not get them?

Have you moved out of NZ?

I ask because they are absolutely not free for most people.

 

[The Atheist]

As for Long Covid...

The evidence is sketchy at best.

Long COVID - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Can't be tested for, mainly assumption, no standardised list of symptoms...

 

[dann]

The evidence is sketchy at best.

Long COVID - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Can't be tested for, mainly assumption, no standardised list of symptoms...

The Atheist's typical MO when offering links at all: 'Find it yourself!'

Claming that "the evidence is sketchy at best" is also one of The Atheist's typical sloppy ways of dismissing whatever he doesn't want to acknowledge. It's described as sketchy because that's what The Atheist would like it to be. What it actually says is:
"Diagnosis is based on a history of suspected or confirmed COVID‑19 symptoms, and by considering and ruling out alternative diagnoses.[8][9] Diagnosis of long COVID can be challenging (!) because of the wide range of symptoms people with long COVID may display.[9]" Referencing texts from 2022 and 2023.
Long COVID: Diagnosis (Wikipedia)

In fact, there are several notes in Wikipedia's paragraph about diagnosis, most of them from 2023, none of them more recent than Sep '24.
For instance, the sentence "There are no standardised (!) tests to determine if symptoms persisting after COVID‑19 infection are due to long COVID.[6][9]" refers to texts from 2022-2023.
One major problem when diagnosing Long COVID is that the virus attacks several and not always the same organs in the body. Depending ont the impacted body parts, the symptoms differ and may not even be recognized as being (or having been) caused by the COVID-19 infection.
Nevertheless, ...

There are diagnostic tools available for some elements of long COVID, such as the tilt table test or a NASA lean test for POTS and MRI scans to test for cardiovascular impairment. Routine tests offered in standard care often come back normal.[3][55][56]

This time referring to texts from 2023 and 2024.

But if we go beyond Wikipedia, which The Atheist obviously doesn't, we find stuff like this:

Researchers Identify A Potential Biomarker For Long COVID (TGen News, Aug 11, 2025)
Researchers from the Translational Genomics Research Institute (TGen), part of City of Hope, and the Lundquist Institute for Biomedical Innovation at Harbor-UCLA Medical Center have identified a potential biomarker for long COVID.
If the findings of their study are confirmed by other research centers, the biomarker could be the first specific and quantifiable indicator for confirming long COVID. Currently, clinicians confer a diagnosis of long COVID based upon a collection of symptoms that patients develop after SARS-CoV-2 infection.
(...)
The study results, reported in the journal Infection, detail the detection of SARS-CoV-2 protein fragments within extracellular vesicles (EVs) — tiny, naturally occurring packages that help cells share proteins, metabolites, and other materials. The researchers collected and analyzed blood samples from 14 patients over 12 weeks of aerobic exercise training (56 samples in all) in a clinical trial led by Stringer in long COVID.
The researchers found 65 distinct protein fragments from SARS-CoV-2 inside the EVs. These fragments come from the virus’s Pp1ab protein, an RNA Replicase enzyme which is key to how the virus copies itself and makes other viral particles. This protein is found uniquely in SARS-CoV-2, and not in uninfected human cells, noted Asghar Abbasi, Ph.D., a Lundquist Institute investigator and first author of the study.

Long COVID biomarkers found – associated with respiratory problems (News from Karolinska Institute, April 30, 2025)
Researchers at Karolinska Institutet have identified biomarkers in the blood associated with symptoms of long COVID, particularly severe respiratory disorders.

Identification with soluble biomarkers that associate with distinct manifestations of long COVID (Nature, April 30, 2025)
Symptomatic disease was not consistently associated with quantitative differences in immune cell lineage composition or antiviral T cell immunity. Healthy convalescent individuals nonetheless exhibited higher titers of neutralizing antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 than individuals with long COVID, and extensive phenotypic analyses revealed a subtle increase in the expression of some co-inhibitory receptors, most notably PD-1 and TIM-3, among SARS-CoV-2 nonspike-specific CD8+ T cells in individuals with long COVID. We further identified a shared plasma biomarker signature of disease linking breathlessness with apoptotic inflammatory networks centered on various proteins, including CCL3, CD40, IKBKG, IL-18 and IRAK1, and dysregulated pathways associated with cell cycle progression, lung injury and platelet activation, which could potentially inform the diagnosis and treatment of long COVID.

And we are currently in the International Long Covid Awareness Month (CovidSociety.ca).
Yesterday was the Long Covid Awareness Day 2026.

 

[icerat]

Srsly?

Endemic: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endemic_(epidemiology)

"An endemic disease always has a steady, predictable number of people or animals getting sick"

Does this describe Covid today?

Pandemic: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandemic

"an epidemic occurring on a scale that crosses international boundaries, usually affecting people on a worldwide scale"

Does this describe Covid today?

 

[dann]

UK:

Cat in the Hat on X, Mar 16, 2026
SANOFI TO SUPPLY NOVAVAX COVID VACCINE FOR UK SPRING 2026 BOOSTERSThis will be the first availability of the Novavax Covid vaccine in the UK since early 2024.This is great news, especially for those who cannot tolerate mRNA vax.https://thepharmaletter.com/biotech-news/sanofi-to-supply-covid19-vaccine-for-uk-booster-campaign(H/t
@Biff234523)

Europe:
Combined mRNA-based influenza/COVID-19 vaccine from Moderna

First combined COVID-19 and influenza vaccine for people 50 years and older (European Medicines Agency, Feb 27, 2026)
It contains messenger RNA with instructions for making proteins found on SARS-CoV-2 and the following seasonal influenza viruses: influenza type A-H1N1, influenza type A-H3N2 and influenza type B of the Victoria lineage.

 

[dann]

Got my booster shot yesterday. I was told that this is a new version that just came out a few days ago, specifically targeting Omicron. Have to wait another 2 weeks to get the latest flu vaccine.

For those who think vaccines aren't necessary because just getting Covid every now and then will build immunity,
Each Covid-19 wave wrecks your health. Here's what you can do

Anecdotally I have heard people say that the second time they got it was worse than the first, which confirms this.

Good to see that some people are still taking it seriously. The vaccines are free, so why not get them? They are getting quicker to administer too, as they don't make you wait so long after the injection. Used to be 20 minutes, then 15, 10 and now 5. I waited 10 minutes just to be sure. No after-effects either, as always.

Lou Thornley on X, Mar 17, 2026
Today we found out the Health Ministry has been sitting on a survey that shows the large scale of Long Covid (& ME/CFS) in New Zealand.
Feeling emotional
>400,000 Kiwi adults had had LC at some point by June 2025 - incl 185,000 w ongoing LC
Prevalence 4.3%
- 1 in 23 adults

Delayed survey suggests more than 400,000 Kiwis may have had Long Covid (Long Covid Support, Mar 17, 2026)