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How do we know a pandemic's over?

(((Dorit Reiss))) on X, June 25, 2025
CDC staff, doing their job, are showing that Kennedy's claim that children without medical conditions and those pregnant don't need COVID-19 vaccines is simply untrue.
See: Current Epidemiology of COVID-19, Coronavirus and Other Respiratory Viruses Division, Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP), June 25, 2025

(((Dorit Reiss))) on X, June 25, 2025
Yes, CDC shows, children die and are severely ill from covid-19 and influenza - including in the past year. Most are unvaccinated.

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(((Dorit Reiss))) on X, June 25, 2025
Including the youngest, under 6 months, who depend on maternal immunity.
 
A lot of good info in the CDC's Covid-19 slide collection. But I have a few nits.
  1. Some of the charts are incomplete, listing only some of bars shown. For instance page 34 omits age ranges of 65-74 (gray) and >=57 (blue). Another, on page 36, has 4 percentage bars on hospitalizations each of 5 different age groups based on 4 vax time groups. However, only two groups are identified. Poor job proofreading.
  2. But this is worse. The slides have numerous charts listing numbers dead or hospitalized based on vax status. That's great but what is completely missing (see page 26) is the percentage of the entire subgroup including non-hospitalized, that is vaxxed. This is a big factor. I'm pretty familiar with this since I follow San Diego's regular reports which includes some of this data. The up-to-date vax status here is under 10% for all ages under 50. Can't find anything in the slides with this.
What I've seen here is the vax Ve, while still significant, has gradually decreased from >90% as population immunity, and possibly lower severity, has grown.
 
As for the other thing that 'jumps out': 🇫🇮 is a fairly small country, 5.6 million. I don't think it's weird that there were weeks when no kids aged 5 to 9 died. If they were not at home, they were probably meeting outdoors. The restrictions meant that infectious diseases other than C19 were also rare. And the 🫎 must have stayed calm for whatever reason.
I too think that the reduced all-cause mortality in the first year of the pandemic there was highly likely due to NPIs. Both diseases and accidents were likely lowered significantly. I'm just surprised that there were two periods with zero deaths from anything. One period was for 6 consecutive weeks. The other for 7. Finland is small, just twice the size of San Diego County. Somewhere around 500,000 kids in that age range I'd guess.
 
I general, few kids that age die! I just googled "mortality by age bracket 5-9" and got this from Google's AI:
In the 5-9 age bracket, mortality rates are relatively low compared to younger children or older age groups, but injuries, particularly road traffic accidents and drowning, are significant causes of death.
Just for fun, I also googled "deaths by moose attacks finland":
Moose-related deaths in Finland primarily result from vehicle collisions, not direct attacks. While moose can be aggressive, especially when defending young or feeling threatened, fatalities are rare outside of traffic accidents. In 2020, three people died in Finland due to collisions with moose, and a five-year-old boy died in March 2022 after a car crash with a moose.
It doesn't say if he had been tested positive less than 30 days before his death by 🫎 and thus belonged to The Atheist's notorious group of car-crash fatalities who were counted as C19 deaths.
 
After reading the last few pages of this thread, I think Mental illness is more of a an issue than Covid.
 
Florida, USA:
Mike Hoerger on X, July 5, 2025
COVID cases have *quadrupled* in Florida in just two months, according to transmission estimates from WastewaterSCAN.
Latest 4 volatile days excluded.
Longitudinal graph of transmission in FL, increasing from 93 (Apr 23, 2025) to 399 (Jun 25, 2025)
 
New Zealand, kids:
Many children suffering ongoing Covid symptoms (RNZ.co.nz, July 6, 2025)
Led by the University of Otago, and published in the International Journal of Paediatrics and Child Health, the study surveyed more than 4200 children and young adults aged three to 20 years between November 2022 and April 2023, after the first widespread Covid-19 community transmission in early 2022.
More than 70 percent of participants had a confirmed Covid-19 infection.
A quarter had suffered more frequent coughs, colds and stomach bugs since infection, while one in five reported ongoing symptoms, such as headaches (21.7 percent), fatigue (20.6 percent), stomach aches (14.6 percent) and new anxiety (13.1 percent).
Before Covid-19's widespread arrival, 82.6 percent of children rated their health as "very good" or "excellent" - that number dropped to 66.9 percent after the Omicron variant waves. Children who had Covid-19 were significantly more likely to rate their health as "fair" or "poor", compared to those who did not.
Children with pre-existing conditions, like asthma or ADHD, were more likely to develop post-Covid symptoms, but many previously healthy kids also reported new difficulties, ranging from persistent coughs to concentration problems.

Many children suffering ongoing Covid symptoms (Otago.ac.nz, July 3, 2025)
“Reducing infections to key to preventing Long Covid. Simple steps like opening windows to improve ventilation in classrooms, workplaces and at home helps reduce the spread of Covid-19 to others.”
Associate Professor Bennett says common symptoms reported in New Zealand children include headaches, fatigue, stomach aches, anxiety and more frequent coughs and colds.
“If a child has Covid, ensure they are able to rest during and after infection to prevent post-viral complications such as Long Covid.”
Co-author Larisa Hockey, of Long Covid Kids New Zealand, says the findings show that Covid-19 has had a measurable and ongoing impact on many children’s health in New Zealand.
“There is strong evidence that preventing infection is key to preventing Long Covid,” she says.
“Children deserve every opportunity to grow up healthy and thrive — and that includes protecting them from preventable long-term illness.
 
USA, 22-44-year-olds:
Jammer on X, June 18, 2025
A team of actuaries report that mortality due to COVID in US adults ages 22-44 is getting worse, life expectancy may drop in 2025 and could improve by 2034.Insurers used this data to write life policies and asked the Treasury Dept and IRS to use it for pension plans. (Rejected)

COVID-19 Creeps Toward LifeInsurance Tax AccountingBy Allison BellWhat You Need To KnowCOVID was known for killing older people.• The people who still seem to have mortality rates that are getting worse are people ages 22 through 44.Mortality for people in that age range could get back on a good improvement track in 2034.
"In 2034"!
Well, at least there is something for the 22-44-year-olds to look forward to ...
 
Update on San Diego County's (Pop. 3.3M) Flu/C19 stats. Things have been fairly calm the last 2 months.

Covid continues to increase it's skew towards killing older people.
In the last 2 months there were 5 flu deaths for those under 65 and 3 for those over 65.
In the last 2 months there were 0 Covid deaths for those under 65 and 16 for those over 65.

For the full fiscal year (July24-June25) deaths occurred for the following age groups:
age range, Covid19, Influenza
0-4 0 1
5-17 0 6
18-49 11 25
50-64 25 34
65+ 240 150

The Flu hit hard this season and was concentrated in the early months of 2025. Covid was spread out with 2 peaks. One in the summer, one in the winter.

New infections are greatly under-reported as most people home test and those are not reported outside of clinics since 2022. It's pretty clear that Covid-19 caused a lot of damage beyond the months following infection. Long term increases in multiple organ system damage resulted in continuing excess mortality as well as many long covid cases. What's not clear is the extent to which new infections add to the future burden. I haven't seen any studies on this. Long term sequelae from the 1918 Flu and subsequent high flu seasons may provide some guidance.
 
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A couple of things:
C19 deaths: 276
Flu deaths: 216
So there are still more C19 deaths even though this most recent flu season was considerably worse than previous seasons since 2020.

It is unlikely that "most people home test." It is more likely that most people don't test at all.
What's not clear is the extent to which new infections add to the future burden. I haven't seen any studies on this. Long term sequelae from the 1918 Flu and subsequent high flu seasons may provide some guidance.

I doubt that there's reliable statistics on "long term sequelae from the 1918 Flu and subsequent high flu season."
And even if reliable statistics existed, I doubt that it would provide any guidance for COVID-19. It's not the same virus, and the sequelae don't seem to be the same.
thetranscendedman on X, July 12, 2025
In Greater Manchester, UK, researchers studying 26,626 Long COVID cases found the risk doubled with each COVID infection, rose 5.7% per comorbidity, and was highest among Black, Mixed ethnicity, and socially disadvantaged individuals. BMI had no effect.
The predisposing factors to having a coded diagnosis of Long COVID (ScienceDirect, Public Health, Vol 246, Sep 2025)
Paul B on X, July 13, 2025
So this is holding true

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Update on San Diego County's (Pop. 3.3M) Flu/C19 stats. Things have been fairly calm the last 2 months.

USA Influenza vs. COVID deaths per month (+ COVID Wastewater), April '22 to June '25:
Gregory Travis on X, July 16, 2025
Weekly COVID vs. Influenza report
In June 2025:
135 Died of Influenza
654 Died of COVID (5x influenza)
Wastewater SARS-CoV-2 levels are rising

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USA:
Is the US in a Summer COVID Surge? Cases Are Rising in These 25 States (Today.coom, July 18, 2025)
Experts say a lack of data is making it harder to track COVID-19 in real time, but that there are clear indicators that transmission is ramping up, and cases are expected to keep rising this summer.
The virus that causes COVID-19, called SARS-CoV-2, continues to mutate, giving rise to highly transmissible new variants that have evolved to better evade immunity.
These include NB.1.8.1 aka "Nimbus," which causes a painful “razor blade throat." Nimbus is now the dominant variant in the U.S., accounting for 43% of cases as of June 21, per CDC data.
However, a new variant with a similar cloud-themed nickname, XFG, aka "Stratus," is spreading rapidly worldwide and causing an increasing proportion of cases in the U.S. Stratus is currently the third most prevalent strain nationally.
“NB.1.18.1 (Nimbus) and XFG (Stratus), appear to be more transmissible compared to other variants,” says Ko.
It's not a Betteridge headline.
There is a map of the states where cases of C19 are either increasing or likely increasing. They are not decreasing anywhere.
 
USA Influenza vs. COVID deaths per month (+ COVID Wastewater), April '22 to June '25:
A little consistency would be nice. The attached clip shows Flu/C19 deaths in June only.

In June 2025:
135 Died of Influenza
654 Died of COVID (5x influenza)


I'm surprised it wasn't higher in June. For instance in June of 2024 it was 10X. Flu is close to non-existent in June. It's almost entirely seasonal. C19 is year-round with peaks typically in both summer and winter.

Looking at all of 2025, Flu killed 38% more Americans than C19 including the winter peaks of both Flu and C19 and was even more deadly for those under 65. . From your linked graph:

Flu deaths: 18193, about 1% was in June.
C19 deaths: 13138, about 5% was in in June.

I was expecting that C19 would show somewhat higher levels by now given the new antibody evasive variants. There are multiple indications a summer C19 wave is occurring but now likely at lower levels than prior years.

On the positive side, the 654 C19 deaths in June was, by far, the lowest number in any month during the entire pandemic.
 
I see no inconsistency!
I quoted the tweet correctly! And I copied the graph.
Notice that Jan-Feb '25 were the two worst flu months since April '22, and March ´25 was the fourth worst!
So, yes, as the graph shows, there have been more flu deaths than C19 in '25 ... so far! And yet, there were more C19 deaths than flu deaths in the flu season 2024-25

I also see no inconsistency in your attempts to downplay the C19 pandemic. You have been pretty consistent in this respect for several years.

Besides ...
COVID-19 cases are rising in these states amid summer wave, CDC data shows (CBS News, July 21, 2025)
CDC says COVID-related emergency room visits climbing especially among young children (CBS News on YouTube, July 21, 2025 - 2:54 min.)


ETA - This may have something to do with it:
Laura Weiss on X, July 16, 2025
Every line in Vinay Prasad's justfication for restricting Covid vaccine access from children -- against FDA staffers' recommendations -- is a total falsehood.
Vinay Prasad Overruled Reviewers on Moderna’s COVID-19 Shot for Kids (BioSpace, July 16, 2025)
 
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And still rising, now gone from "very low" to "low" not just in Copenhagen, and the percentage of positives is up, too.
National wastewater surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 (SSI.dk, July 23, 2025)

Danes are now returning from holidays in Spain, which may have something to do with the rising numbers.

Mike Hoerger on X, July 25, 2025
Do you remember when Spain was having its largest known surge in transmission of the entire pandemic?
I do. Because it's today.
#MaskUp

Line graph shows transmission spiking, per wastewater data

Based on the numbers from one Spanish region only, Catalonia.
Marianne M on X, July 25, 2025
No mitigations. Tourism. No masks. No care...and here we are.
Judith Lee on X, July 25, 2025
Just as the school holidays begin and tourists head for Spain. As we don't have adequate testing or wastewater monitoring in England, maybe Scotland will let us (and the NHS) know.
 
Honduras mandates face masks again as respiratory illnesses spike (Strait Times, July 26, 2025)
Over five years after the COVID-19 outbreak, Honduras has reinstated mandatory mask wearing in public spaces amid a spike in respiratory illnesses and as a variant of the virus spreads through the Central American country.
Honduras' health ministry confirmed two deaths from the virus this week, among patients with underlying health conditions, bringing the country's total in 2025 to six.
"We have already surpassed last year's infection limit; there are currently five people admitted to Hospital Escuela with suspected COVID-19," said the head of Health Surveillance, Lorenzo Pavon.
 
USA:
COVID-19 Is Rising Again. Here's What to Know (TIME, July 24, 2025)
As much as we want to put it behind us, COVID-19 isn’t going away. Cases are currently rising across the country in a summer surge.
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reports that cases of COVID-19 are increasing in nine states and likely growing in another 16. The trends are estimates, as the CDC no longer conducts rigorous surveillance of cases based on results from lab tests. Fewer people are also getting tested. But the data do provide a hint of how the disease is changing over time, and new monitoring systems that track viruses in wastewater confirm the rise.

However, the cases still appear to be rising from fairly low numbers:
Mike Hoerber on X, July 26, 2025
Today's Biobot update has COVID transmission rising across all four U.S. regions.

Biobot has the West highest, then South, Northeast, and Midwest. All regions are rising. The West is rising fastest.
 
Canada:
Barry Hunt on X, July 25, 2025Good News!
Canadian Standards Association (CSA) has called for universal respirator use in healthcare settings & when performing patient care outside of healthcare settings (eg – in the home) in the latest edition of CSA Z94.4, Selection, use and care of filtering respirators.
Barry Hunt on X, July 25, 2025
How you can help:
The draft CSA Z94.4 Standard is now out for Public Review until August 19, 2025.
Please weigh in with your positive, constructive comments at https://publicreview.csa.ca/Home/View/2256677 .
Public Review comments are open to everyone who registers.
Barry Hunt on X, July 25, 2025
Impact:
In Canada, approximately 1/3 of respiratory infections in healthcare are due to transmission in the healthcare facility.
😷😷😷
 

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