How do we know a pandemic's over?

USA - disability claims:
It's correlation, obviously, but ...
Jammer on X, June 2, 2025
‘Along with a baffling rise in excess mortality, Americans claiming disabilities have skyrocketed since 2020 (nearly 35%).’ - U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
‘Reasons behind the stunning increase vary, but many seem connected to COVID. A sizable number have LongCOVID.’

INSURANCENEWSNETYour industry. One source.™Disability claims skyrocket, raising new puzzle alongside 'excess mortality'FRED & — Population - With a Disability, 16 Years and over
 
Yeah, this Long Covid thing is a bitch! I don't remember which thread, it may have been this one, or the other one on Covid, or maybe the one in which @icerat spoke at some length about his own Long Covid symptoms: but I do remember briefly mentioning my cousin, who, following an intense bout of Covid, and despite apparently recovering from it, ended up with a whole bunch of weird symptoms. Went from being a perfectly healthy young guy to having a bunch of old-man symptoms that, hell, even his father (my uncle, who's a healthy enough guy, knock on wood) doesn't suffer from. Blood pressure, blood sugar, going completely bald, weird things going wrong with one of his eyes, weird things happening with his skin. Most conspicuously of all, going from being actually a very healthy and personable young man to becoming hugely obese.

Well, it's been years now, and he's still suffering from all of those. Just the other touched base with him. They say it's Long Covid, but of course, no one can be 100% sure about that, and nor can you treat those different symptoms other than one symptom at a time.
 
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... maybe the one in which @icerat spoke at some length about his own Long Covid symptoms ...
That was in the science and medicine thread.
I don't know if that was also where you mentioned your cousin, but I think it would be more likely.

Going bald and skin conditions are some of the PASC symptoms that are rarely mentioned. They don't kill you and they don't usually affect your ability to work, but much like another one of the sequelae, impotence, they do affect your quality of life.

Did you see my post about Laura Loomer in the Conspiracy subforum?
I would hate to get Long Covid, obviously, but I would hate it so much more if I had been claiming that C19 was no big deal and even wishing that I would get it. In that case, 'living with (Long) Covid' seems to require a level of cognitive dissonance beyond ordinary (in)sanity.
 
That was in the science and medicine thread.
I don't know if that was also where you mentioned your cousin, but I think it would be more likely.

Going bald and skin conditions are some of the PASC symptoms that are rarely mentioned. They don't kill you and they don't usually affect your ability to work, but much like another one of the sequelae, impotence, they do affect your quality of life.

Did you see my post about Laura Loomer in the Conspiracy subforum?
I would hate to get Long Covid, obviously, but I would hate it so much more if I had been claiming that C19 was no big deal and even wishing that I would get it. In that case, 'living with (Long) Covid' seems to require a level of cognitive dissonance beyond ordinary (in)sanity.

Hadn't seen that post, no. Don't read that thread much (or maybe not at all, don't remember which).

Checked out the post just now. I would have smiled at a Covid denier coming down with that, except that sort of thing's horrible, even if the one getting it is a nutjob and invited it, so to say, by refusing vaccines.

Incidentally, my cousin's case, I don't remember 100%, but I think that was before the vaccines.

And yes, even if none of these symptoms are life-threatening, but they're a very big deal still. They would be, to anyone, but particularly when you're young.
 
Marty Makary! From a Face the Nation video (8:58 min.).
Without saying it directly, his main point is that "young healthy kids" shouldn't get the vaccine.
We're basically saying we'd like to bring some confidence back to the public about the repeat-booster-strategy theory.
So he isn't talking about bringing back people's confidence in the vaccines, on the contrary. And he is using the mistrust that he, RFK Jr., Vinay Prasad, Jay Bhattacharya etc. have created - 88 percent of parents didn't want their kids to get the booster shots in the previous season - as his argument against the vaccines.

The journalist is great:
So the CDC data said, "41 percent of children aged 6 months to 17 years hospitalized with Covid between 2022 and 2024 did not have a known underlying condition." In other words, they were healthy.
So much for Makary's "young healthy kids"!
She also confronts his claim about vaccinating pregnant women.
In the comments on X, MAHA morons accuse her of being a pharma shill!

The correction of NOT --> now in the quotation is mine. I have no idea what he means when he says that the new variant is going to become the fifth coronavirus.
Emoluments Clause on X, June 1, 2025
#BREAKING: Margaret: "One of the things we've noticed is this NEW COVID variant that seems to be circulating in Asia..."FDA Boss: "It's behaving like a common cold virus, it's NOT now going to become the fifth corona virus..."
 
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FDA approves Moderna's new COVID-19 vaccine (CIDRAP, June 2, 2025)
Vaccine maker Moderna announced late last week that the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has approved its next-generation COVID-19 vaccine.
Marketed under the name mNexspike (mRNA-1283), the updated shot targets a portion of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein for virus neutralization, allowing for a dose that's one-fifth the size of Moderna's original COVID-19 vaccine, Spikevax (mRNA-1273). Company officials have also characterized the updated shot as potentially refrigerator-stable vaccine that could be more easily distributed and administered in a wider range of settings.
Moderna said the approval was based on the results of a phase 3 randomized controlled trial involving 11,400 participants ages 12 and older, which found that a 10-microgram (μg) dose of mNexspike demonstrated a 9.3% higher relative vaccine efficacy (rVE) compared with a 50-μg dose of Spikevax, with a 13.5% higher rVE in adults ages 65 and older. The safety profiles of the two vaccines were similar, the company added.
Unlike Spikevax, it is only approved for 65+ and 12-to-64-year-olds with at least one condition that makes them higher risk.
 
China:
I don't know how reliable this article is. The Epoch Times is not trustworthy source.
Schools in China Reportedly Isolate Students as COVID Cases Surge (NTD, June 1, 2025)
Doctors and residents across China continue to report more infections and deaths as the latest wave of COVID-19 continues, portraying a far more severe situation than the Chinese regime is letting on.
Schools in various provinces are reportedly suspending classes and placing students in quarantine, leading to growing concerns among the public of a return of lockdowns, according to information provided to the Chinese language version of The Epoch Times and on social media.
A “home quarantine notice”—issued by a primary school in Guangzhou and circulated by Chinese netizens on China's TikTok equivalent, Douyin, before it was posted to social media platform X on May 26 before CCP censors could delete it—has attracted widespread attention.
 
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UK - school absence:
Cat in the Hat on X, June 5, 2025
Let’s be crystal clear: Persistent absence is still horrendously HIGH.
Pre-pandemic, persistent absence was ~10.9%.
So far this year, it’s at 18%, a rise of 65% vs pre-pandemic.
And the key driver is ILLNESS.
We have the tools to fix this though… by CLEANING THE INDOOR AIR!

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Cat in the Hat's tweet was in response to this:
Bridget Phillipson on X, June 4, 2025
140,000 fewer pupils persistently absent compared to last year.
Over three million school days gained.
Our Plan for Change is turning the tide on absence.
Lots done, lots more to do – that's my message to school leaders at today's RISE attendance conference in Birmingham.

Cat in the Hat on X, June 4, 2025
Bridget, once upon a time you knew all too well how important it was to clean the air in classrooms to reduce the spread of airborne illnesses……but once you got into power, it seems you conveniently forgot about it.
Please don’t ignore this.
Our children deserve better.

Cat in the Hat on X, May 27, 2024 This is an EPIC thread, written by Shadow Education Secretary @bphillipsonMP on the importance of VENTILATION in schools.
She compiles all the evidence & berates the Tory Government for their despicable inaction.
But what will SHE do differently if LABOUR win the election?

Not much, it seems ...
 
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USA - Influenza and COVID-19 numbers
Gregory Travis on X, June 4, 2025
COVID vs. Influenza report
In May 2025:
180 people died from their influenza infections
643 people died from their SARS-CoV-2 (COVID) infections (4x influenza)
However more people died from the flu in Jan, Feb and March, 2025 (numbers incomplete for the first months of 2025):
 
USA - Influenza and COVID-19 numbers

However more people died from the flu in Jan, Feb and March, 2025 (numbers incomplete for the first months of 2025):
Interesting graph. What's really weird is that the CDC also has an estimate of total Flu deaths since Oct. 2024 and it's a range between 27,000 and 130,000. The range is so large because USA Flu surveillance is spotty. The graph shows Flu deaths at around 18k. Here's the CDC link:
 
UK - school absence:
Florida schools face alarming rise in student absences since pandemic (TV Sur, June 5, 2025)
In the 2018-19 school year, the last before the pandemic, about 20% of Florida’s public school students missed 10% or more of the school year, meeting the state definition of chronically absent. That figure topped 32% the year after COVID shuttered schools and has barely inched down since — remaining above 31% in the 2023-34 school year, the latest year for which data is available, an analysis by the Orlando Sentinel and South Florida Sun Sentinel shows.
(...)
The pandemic disrupted attendance habits (!), accustomed students to looser standards and convinced them in-person classes mattered less.
(...)
All of Forsyth Woods’ students are from economically disadvantaged families. Before COVID-19, about 22% of its student body missed 10% of the school year. Last year, 38% were absent that often.

Yeah, habits. That must be it.

A long thread on X about the impact the pandemic has had on kids, from mortality to 'absenteeism'.
One example from last year:
Laura Miers on X, Aug 18, 2024
“The positivity rate is one of the only timely metrics left to track the spread of the virus. California’s rate has yet to show signs of slowing, since it first started growing in May…
So how are schools handling back to school this year? In general, districts are not taking special precautions…”
Another year of magical thinking & Thoughts & Prayers. Best of luck, everyone. https://mercurynews.com/2024/08/16/bay-area-students-going-back-to-school-amid-ongoing-covid-wave/

Mercury News: Bay Area students going back to school amid ongoing COVID waveHarriet Blair Rowan and Molly GibbsUPDATED: August 16, 2024 at 4:19 p.m.

Examples not just from the USA but also from places like the UK and Finland:
Ilkka Rauvola on X, Aug 25, 2024
Excess deaths: in Finland, deaths of 5-9 year olds have risen to a level five (5) times above normal in July, and 2.5 times above normal during the past year. Total excess deaths continue to decline.

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Scotland:
Cat in the Hat on X, June 9, 2025
COVID WASTEWATER SURVEILLANCE
Scotland’s Covid wastewater signal has been steadily rising since March and is now at the highest point so far this year.
(I’d love to share the Covid wastewater data for England with you too but the budget for that programme was axed in 2022).
 
Australia:
Mike Honey on X, June 22, 2025
Australian COVID-19 weekly stats update:
The risk estimate rose sharply last week to 1.3% “Currently Infectious”, or 1-in-80. It has passed the peak from early Jan - the XEC wave.
That implies a 31% chance that someone is infectious in a group of 30.
#COVID19 #Australia

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Examples not just from the USA but also from places like the UK and Finland:
That's one weird chart dann.

Looking closely at the Finland chart it appears the red line is one year moving average, the blue line a 3-4 month moving average and the yellow a 5 week moving average.

A few things jump out.

1. There are 5 places where the 5 week average clips at -100%. This means zero deaths, let alone excess deaths, in the 5 weeks centered around each point.
2. The excess deaths don't occur until the latter half of 2021. Over a year after the start of C19!

When were kids 5-9 vaxxed? This is the sort of chart I'd expect to see from the anti-vaxxers!
 
I don't see what your problem is with the chart, marting.

I don't know when (or even if) "kids 5-9" were vaxed in Finland. Maybe Vixen can tell us. However, I do know that the other Nordic countries than 🇸🇪 didn't let go of all other pandemic precautions than 💉💉 (including 'studying from home') till the winter of 2021-22, which was when excess mortality in 🇫🇮 really took off and even overtook 🇸🇪. Until November 2021, 🇩🇰 and 🇳🇴 had negative excess mortality.

So you are right, there is a correlation (!) between excess mortality and 💉💉, which was more or less complete (first two shots) by the summer of 2021 (earlier in 🇩🇰 than in 🇫🇮, 🇮🇸, 🇳🇴 and 🇸🇪 because 🇷🇴 sold 1.17 million Pfizer-BioNTech jabs to 🇩🇰):
Excess mortality: Cumulative deaths from all causes compared to projection based on previous years, per million people 🇩🇰🇫🇮🇮🇸🇳🇴🇸🇪

But there is also the correlation that, after the 💉💉, 🇩🇰, 🇫🇮, 🇮🇸 and 🇳🇴 (also) gave up on masking, TeTrIs, working and studying from home etc. In fact, people in 🇩🇰 were told to go out and get infected during Omicron because it would allegedly give them "super immunity": "Vaccinated + infected = super immunity". I assume that people in 🇫🇮, 🇮🇸 and 🇳🇴 were told something similar.

You could say that the other Nordics embraced 🇸🇪's herd immunity by infection post-💉💉, so that was when C19 dying really took off. I don't know why excess mortality got so much worse in 🇫🇮 than in 🇩🇰, 🇮🇸, 🇳🇴 and even 🇸🇪, but if it had been due to the 💉💉, it should have happened earlier in 🇩🇰 than in 🇫🇮.

The lesson is that "the excess deaths don't occur until the latter half of 2021. Over a year after the start of C19!" because that's how effective the (not at all 'draconian') restrictions were in the four other Nordics than 🇸🇪 for the first 18 months or so of the pandemic.

Unlike most other European countries, 🇫🇮, 🇮🇸, 🇳🇴 and 🇸🇪 have the advantage of being very sparsely populated, but 🇸🇪 didn't really use that advantage for anything. On the contrary, it pursued Anders Tegnell's herd-immunity-by-infection strategy from the get go by keeping schools, bars and restaurants open and telling people that face masks were dangerous etc.

As for the other thing that 'jumps out': 🇫🇮 is a fairly small country, 5.6 million. I don't think it's weird that there were weeks when no kids aged 5 to 9 died. If they were not at home, they were probably meeting outdoors. The restrictions meant that infectious diseases other than C19 were also rare. And the 🫎 must have stayed calm for whatever reason.
 
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