How do we know a pandemic's over?

[dann]

Europe/Denmark:

JWeiland on X, May 25, 2025
Much of Europe will probably see a summer wave starting soon, with both XFG and NB.1.8.1 growing at similar rates.

Respie Holdout on X, May 25, 2025
Allready the dominating variant [NB.1.8.1] in one danish region:

For Danes 12+ who are willing to pay for it, it's possible to get the C19 in six different locations from June 1, 2025:
Roskilde, København (Nordhavn), Odense, Århus (Risskov), Ålborg & Kolding.
https://www.sikkerrejse.dk/vaccination/covid-19-vaccination/

 

[dann]

China:

China Grapples with COVID-19 Surge Marked by Severe “Razor Blade Throat” Symptom (GreekCityTimes,May 24, 2025)
In China, a new wave of COVID-19 is sweeping through, with patients reporting intense throat pain described as a “razor blade throat”—a sensation likened to swallowing shattered glass or razor blades.
This resurgence, driven by the highly transmissible but less virulent Omicron XDV variant, is bringing symptoms like fever, headaches, fatigue, burning throat pain, and persistent coughing, according to Zhong Nanshan, a leading Chinese pulmonologist and epidemiologist, in a May 19 interview with local media.
The outbreak, which began in March, is expected to peak in late May and subside by late June, lasting six to eight weeks, Zhong stated. Dr. Li Tongzeng, director of the Infectious Diseases Department at Beijing You’an Hospital, confirmed the timeline, noting the epidemic is still in its “climbing phase.”

Taiwan:

Weekly COVID-19 cases could hit 100,000 during peak in June. (FocusTaiway, May 23, 2025)
The number of weekly visits by COVID-19 patients was originally projected to peak around 55,000 to 65,000 in mid-to-late June, but people who sought treatment for the illness had already reached 19,189 in the first three days of this week.

 

[dann]

Thailand sees over 30,000 new Covid-19 cases in just 5 days, expert warns (NationThailand, May 23, 2025)
In a Facebook not updating the country's Covid-19 situation from May 18 to 23, Thira said 33,589 people had sought hospital treatment for the virus during this period, with three deaths reported.
He described this surge as an "early sign" of a growing outbreak, warning that if weekly patterns continue to mirror previous trends, further increases are likely.
Thira also cautioned that the Department of Disease Control's official figures do not account for the many infected individuals who have not yet sought hospital care. Additionally, delays in reporting could result in weekly case numbers doubling once backlogged data is included.
He criticised repeated claims that Covid-19 is merely a mild illness comparable to seasonal flu.

 

[dann]

Australia (see post 1,335):

COVID-19: New subvariant NB.18.1 driving increase in infections in WA (PerthNow, May 24, 2025)
A new COVID-19 subvariant is driving an increase in infections in WA, with hospitalisations increasing to an average of 38 per day in the latest figures.
That was up from an average of 31 per day in the previous week.
The subvariant NB.1.8.1 is now the dominant COVID-19 subvariant in Perth wastewater, with concentrations of the virus also increasing.

Somebody on X recently pointed out that this appears to be the mandatory way for the media to address all new variants:

Whilst more transmissible, it’s not believed to cause worse symptoms than its antecedents.

The way it kills and maims more people is by being more transmissible than previous variants.

 

[dann]

Marty Makay, current FDA commissioner, in February '21:

 

[dann]

Hawaii:

CyFi on X, May 25, 2025
Kids 12-15 are visiting the ED for Covid in Hawaii at the highest rate since the summer surge.

Source: CDC Covid Data Tracker

12-15 seem to be followed by 16-17, with 75+ in third place.
The same trend isn't there in the rest of the USA.

ETA: However, ...

Local 12/WKRC-TV on X, May 25, 2025
New COVID-19 variant spreads rapidly in the US, experts warn:
https://bit.ly/45nsj3E

 

[dann]

Vietnam:
HCM City reports first cases of new COVID-19 variant (VietnamNews, May 25, 2025)
Thailand:
Thailand records over 50,000 new Covid-19 cases in one week (NationThailand, May 26, 2025)
52,917 new cases between May 18 and 24; 2,784 hospitalisations.

 

[dann]

Not just in Hawaii:

U.S. reports cases of new COVID variant NB.1.8.1 behind surge in China (CBS News, May 23, 2025)
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's airport screening program has detected multiple cases of the new COVID-19 variant NB.1.8.1, which has been linked to a large surge of the virus in China.
Cases linked to the NB.1.8.1 variant have been reported in arriving international travelers at airports in California, Washington state, Virginia and the New York City area, according to records uploaded by the CDC's airport testing partner Ginkgo Bioworks.
Details about the sequencing results, which were published in recent weeks on the GISAID, or Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data, virus database, show the cases stem from travelers from a number of countries, including Japan, South Korea, France, Thailand, the Netherlands, Spain, Vietnam, China and Taiwan. The travelers were tested from April 22 through May 12, the records show.
Cases of NB.1.8.1 have also now been reported by health authorities in other states, including Ohio, Rhode Island and Hawaii, separate from the airport cases. In California and Washington state, the earliest cases date back to late March and early April.

I think it's safe to assume that it is everywhere at this point.

 

[dann]

COVID variant NB.1.8.1 hits U.S. What to know about symptoms, new booster vaccine restrictions (CBS News, May 27, 2025)
Commonly reported symptoms include respiratory issues such as cough and sore throat, as well as systemic effects like fever and fatigue, he said.
"Data indicates that NB.1.8.1 does not lead to more severe illness compared to previous variants, although it appears to have a growth advantage, suggesting it may spread more easily," Verma said. "In other words, it is more transmissible."
Authorities in Hong Kong say there is no evidence that the variant, a descendant of the XDV lineage of the virus, is more severe than previous strains.

Considering that previous strains have killed more than 1.2 million Americans, I don't really find it comforting to be told that the new variant is not "more severe" but spreads "more easily," but that's just me.

 

[dann]

The world has moved on.

So has the virus. New variants haven't stopped popping up.

Authorities in Hong Kong have also begun urging residents to mask when in public transportation or crowded places as cases have climbed.

 

[dann]

There have been no variant nicknames recently, but NB.1.8.1 is now called Nimbus, which is easier to remember, I guess, but all in all not a good sign.
From a thread on X:

Ryan T. Gregory on X, May 27, 2025
Nimbus (NB.1.8.1) gets its name from the type of cloud (plus it's helpful that it contains "n" and "b"). It is not just another member of Pirola clan. Nimbus is a triple recombinant that includes both Pirola (BA.2.86) and Kraken (XBB) variant ancestry.

 

[dann]

Considering that previous strains have killed more than 1.2 million Americans, I don't really find it comforting to be told that the new variant is not "more severe" but spreads "more easily," but that's just me.

First post in a long thread - with examples:

Laura Miers on X, May 27, 2025
It’s strange how all the Professional Minimizers—who absolutely insist new variants do not pose increased risks—NEVER mention the horrifying reinfections data, or all the studies that show SARS-CoV-2 persists almost everywhere & causes long-term damage to immune systems.

On threadreader.

 

[dann]

Thailand:

CU doctor warns Covid-19 is biggest cause of illness and deaths in past month (NationThailand, May 27, 2025)
From 18 to 24 May, Covid-19 continued to cause the highest number of illness and fatalities among Thais. The number of Covid-19 cases was five times greater than cases of diarrhoea, ten times higher than influenza cases, and 30 times more than food poisoning cases.

USA:

Highly infectious new COVID strain from China that led to massive spikes in hospitalizations has spread to the US - including NYC (New York Post, May 27, 2025)
The CDC has said there are too few cases in the US to be properly tracked in the agency's variant estimates, but experts are warning that the virus' run in China shows it spreads more quickly than other dominant strains of the respiratory infection.

UK:

Pete on X, May 27, 2025
When I tell people that a large Covid wave is expected in UK in the next few weeks & levels are rising, they seem dumbfounded.
You can almost see them processing; how do you know, why don't I know, why isn't it in the news, should I care, will it be bad?
Public Health is screwed.

 

[marting]

Thailand:
CU doctor warns Covid-19 is biggest cause of illness and deaths in past month (NationThailand, May 27, 2025)
From 18 to 24 May, Covid-19 continued to cause the highest number of illness and fatalities among Thais. The number of Covid-19 cases was five times greater than cases of diarrhoea, ten times higher than influenza cases, and 30 times more than food poisoning cases.

The article states:

In a Facebook post, Dr Thira revealed that in the past month, approximately 170,000 people sought hospital treatment for Covid-19, resulting in 37 deaths.

Hmm. There are about 80M peeps in Thailand. Overall death rate in Thailand is about 8/1000 per year. So one expects about 8*80,000,000/12000 total deaths per month. That's about 53k deaths per month. And 37 Covid deaths??.

 

[dann]

Yes, 37 deaths in Thailand isn't much, but based on earlier surges since the beginning of the pandemic, we know that increasing numbers follow this pattern: infections --> symptoms --> hospitalizations --> deaths.
It usually takes two-three weeks for the number of deaths to surge. It remains to be seen how it plays out this time.
In (6 million), we have had only about 5 weekly C19 deaths in recent weeks, which would still be higher than in Thailand.
Throughout the pandemic, Thailand has been much better at masking up than e.g. Scandinavia. A Swede has been reporting about this difference since 2020.

 

[dann]

USA:

A New COVID Variant Is Here, And It's More Transmissible — Here Are The Signs And Symptoms (HuffPost, May 28, 2025)
A new COVID variant known as NB.1.8.1 has made landfall in the United States. The variant, which was first detected in China this past January, currently accounts for 10% of the SARS-CoV-2 sequences tested from around the world, recent surveillance data found. That’s a significant jump from 2.5% four weeks ago.
A Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) spokesperson told HuffPost that the agency is in regular contact with international partners about the activity of NB.1.8.1. To date, only 20 NB.1.8.1 sequences have been identified in the U.S. — that’s below the threshold needed for a variant to appear on the agency’s COVID dashboard. (As soon as its prevalence increases, NB.1.8.1 will pop up on the tracker, the spokesperson added.)

Japan:
Mikael on X, May 29, 2025
NB.1.8.1 causing some intense outbreak situations in Japanese schools. This variant is whole other level to do this, especially in such a previously exposed global population.

https://x.com/mrmickme2/status/1927937365324009931/photo/1

Reddit, May 28, 2025
Kanagawa Prefecture, Samukawa Junior High School, grade closure due to the new coronavirus, a total of 215 third-year students New Coronavirus | Kanaroko by Kanagawa Shimbun

寒川の中学校、新型コロナで学年閉鎖　３年生計２１５人 新型コロナ | カナロコ by 神奈川新聞

寒川町は２７日、町立旭が丘中学校（同町小動）の３年生（６クラスと特別支援学級、計２１５人）を２８日～６月１日、新型コロナウイルスにより学年閉鎖にすると発表した。

www.kanaloco.jp

 

[dann]

Denmark:
This is the first time I've seen it mentioned in Danish media:

Her er navnet på den nye coronavariant: Den kan markere en ny epoke af pandemien (Berlingske.dk, May 20, 2025)
Eksperter har nu sat navn på den nye variant, som forventes at blive den dominerende i Danmark og resten af verden. Den skræmmer ikke eksperterne, men sætter snarere ny fart på diskussionen om, hvorvidt corona er på vej til at være tæmmet.
Der er en ny variant i byen, som kommer til at være den dominerende trussel på coronafronten i en rum tid fremover, varsler eksperter. Men det er et spørgsmål, om vi behøver at være særlig bange for den

This is the name of the new coronavirus variant: It may signify a new epoch of the pandemic
Experts have now named the new variant that is expected to become dominant in Denmark and the rest of the world. It doesn't scare experts, but it accelerates the debate about whether the coronavirus is about to get tamed.
There is a new variant in town, and it is going to be the dominant coronavirus threat for quite som time from now on, experts warn. But it remains an open question if we need to be particularly scared of it.

This is typical of the way approaching waves have been reported in Denmark since the winter of 2021-22, i.e. post-. And it was never 'an open question': There is never reason to be even concerned or to take other precautions than vaccinations - and is only recommended if you are 65+.

But that is not very different from the rest of the (Western) world:
Another COVID-19 variant is rising abroad. Doctors say there's no need to panic (ABC News, May 28, 2025)

 

[dann]

New COVID-19 variant NB.1.8.1 'pretty much everywhere' in Australia (ABC.net.au, May 30, 2025)
Australians are being urged to get their COVID-19 booster as a new coronavirus variant drives up infections.
The World Health Organization (WHO) has designated the new NB.1.8.1 strain as a "variant under monitoring" and it's now the dominant variant in China and Hong Kong.
Griffith University virologist Associate Professor Lara Herrero said the new strain could possibly overtake others in Australia too.

Since winter is coming in Australia, it may hit harder and faster than in the northern hemisphere.
As in many other places, Australian the numbers are no longer reliable:

"We're seeing a lot of cases in the community coming through the [emergency department] but it's likely we're heavily under-reporting because COVID reporting is no longer mandatory."

 

[dann]

San Diego County: "Weekly reporting will resume in October."
The end result this time:
San Diego County Respiratory Virus Surveillance Report, June 30, 2024, to Mar 29, 2025 (SanDiegoCounty.gov, May 3, 2025)
COVID-19: Cases 26,837; Deaths 260
Influenza: Cases 38,545; Deaths 208
RSV: Cases 5,678; Deaths 16

Notice that this was the 'mildest' C19 year till now, and by far the worst flu year since 2021-22.

Figures 19, 20 and 21 on p. 11 show "COVID-19, Influenza, and RSV Deaths by Age and Fiscal Year," 2021-22 to 2024-25, but notice the y-axis before you make comparisons.

 

[marting]

San Diego County: "Weekly reporting will resume in October."
The end result this time:
San Diego County Respiratory Virus Surveillance Report, June 30, 2024, to Mar 29, 2025 (SanDiegoCounty.gov, May 3, 2025)
COVID-19: Cases 26,837; Deaths 260
Influenza: Cases 38,545; Deaths 208
RSV: Cases 5,678; Deaths 16

Notice that this was the 'mildest' C19 year till now, and by far the worst flu year since 2021-22.

Right. This Flu season was high according to the CDC. The last high Flu season was 2017/18.

Figures 19, 20 and 21 on p. 11 show "COVID-19, Influenza, and RSV Deaths by Age and Fiscal Year," 2021-22 to 2024-25, but notice the y-axis before you make comparisons.

Probably the best way to look at it is on pg. 12 which has numerical values. This Flu season was particularly severe for people under 65.

Flu mortality/C19 for <65: 61/36 or 69% higher.

OTOH, C19 was bad for those >=65
C19 Mortality/Flu for <65: 224/147 or 52% higher.

Interestingly, C19 Vax rates were less than half that of Flu Vax.