How do we know a pandemic's over?

[dann]

Hospitals, continued

Old People Shouldn’t Have The Unrealistic Expectation Of Not Getting Sick In Hospital (The Vertlartnic on X)

 

[dann]

Remember: It's today!

Tomorrow is National Bring Your Covid to Work Day.
Pessimistic Persimmon (X, Sep 5, 2024)

Again??
Marsha Muir (X, Sep 5, 2024)

You can wear same outfit if you like
Pessimistic Persimmon (X, Sep 5, 2024)

Because your kids brought it home from school at the start of the week and it’s time to pass it around.
Jan - TTI, wear respirator, demand more ACH. HEPA (X, Sep 5, 2024)

In Denmark, there was an uptick (still slight) in C19 hospitalizations of school-age children last week - and of C19 hospitalizations in general. Steep rise (40%) in the level of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater samples, but still only mid-level.

In Canada (but relevant everywhere):

Canada’s health system reels as by one estimate 1,000 die weekly. Each infection carries risks. Where’s the prevention?
COVID is surging once again and, if you live in British Columbia, you probably already know someone sick with fever, chills and a sore throat.
As of mid-August, about one in every 19 British Columbians were enduring an infection, with or without symptoms.
Although the media routinely dismisses all COVID infections as an inconsequential nuisance, that’s not what the science says. The virus remains deadlier than the flu and repeated infections can radically change your health.
An important new Nature study, for example, has now proven that the spike protein of the virus can bind with a blood protein, fibrin, setting off a chain of blood clots resulting in chronic inflammation and brain damage. Fibrin can actually form a mesh impeding blood flow in arteries to multiple organs in the body.
As COVID Surges, the High Price of Viral Denial (TheTyee, Sep 3, 2024)

 

[dann]

Covid in schools - and pre-school

When masks were dropped in the “Omicron’s mild” phase of the pandemic, Cara continued as the lone masker at school to protect her immunocompromised mother, who was undergoing chemotherapy. It was tolerable until a child psychotherapist said on the national airwaves that some girls would continue to mask anyway “to hide their acne”.
His words were used to bully her. Cara left, but without support from teachers she struggled. Her parents pleaded with the school to use the Hepa filter they bought. The school refused.
Cara eventually returned to school unmasked, caught Covid and infected her mam. It killed her. Cara self-harms because she blames herself. She hasn’t been to school since.
Research shows that more than 70pc of Sars-CoV-2 transmission in households started with a child.
Tess Finch-Lees: If parents don’t fight to protect children from Covid in schools, nobody else will (Irish Independent, Sep 5, 2024)

Nearly half of children in some areas arrive unable to talk and still not potty-trained as lockdown legacy take its toll, data shows.
Experts say many more children are starting school with undiagnosed language and learning difficulties which can lead to behavioural problems.
Children as young as four are being excluded from schools in England in increasing numbers as they struggle to cope in a classroom setting, with many still in nappies or unable to talk fully.
According to the latest government data, 11,695 children aged five and under were given fixed-term exclusions in England in the 2021-22 academic year, which was 11% higher than 2018-19.
In some schools in deprived areas up to 40% of reception children are also now arriving at school not yet potty-trained, the Observer has been told.
Thousands of Covid generation under-fives excluded from schools in England (TheGuardian, Oct 7, 2023)

Because it couldn't possibly be the legacy of anything other than lockdowns causing this, right?! After all, COVID-19 brain fog only happens to people of working age, doesn't it???

 

[The Atheist]

In Canada (but relevant everywhere):

Canada’s health system reels as by one estimate 1,000 die weekly.

Total and utter baloney. "One estimate"? Who made that estimate? You?

Facts: https://health-infobase.canada.ca/covid-19/current-situation.html

Even at the peak of the pandemic fewer than 1000 Canadians were dying weekly.

Pathetic.

 

[dann]

Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn't go away

If The Atheist had any interest in finding out "Who made that estimate?", it wouldn't have been difficult for him (or anybody else) to find out.
It is mentioned in the article I linked to, several times:

And yet the estimated daily level of infection in Canada now hovers around the highest points reached during the Omicron variant’s peaks in January 2022 and October 2023.

That’s the finding of University of Toronto infectious disease expert Tara Moriarty, whose team bases the latest COVID-19 Hazard Index on a combination of wastewater data and modelling. In a discursive and highly valuable X posting Moriarty adds “there’s not a fresh vaccine in sight.” In fact, they are weeks away.

That means about one million infections are occurring every week and that this “severe” level of infection translates like clockwork into more than 1,000 deaths per week from COVID-19 in Canada based on five-week average trends. Ultimately these infections will result in more cases of long COVID in both younger and older populations.

While Moriarty’s estimates of COVID deaths are higher than provincial reports, the scientist asserts that her methods counteract chronic underreporting. Only 20 per cent of actual deaths from COVID are now reported, claims Moriarty.

There is more bad news: on an annual basis COVID infections still account for 20 times more deaths than influenza.

The data is not complete but this death toll likely made COVID the second or leading cause of death in the country last month.
As COVID Surges, the High Price of Viral Denial (TheTyeee, Sep 3, 2024)

By the way, unlike The Atheist, I don't make that kind of estimates.
See Moriarty's arguments in the very long thread on X.

A thread about COVID-19 and COVID-19 reporting in Canada, as well as about validation of our latest COVID-19 Forecast model.
Tara Moriarty (X, Aug 31, 2024)

Unlike The Atheist's estimates, Moriarty's are based on facts.

 

[marting]

The rise in hospitalization numbers in the USA was mentioned in post 1,177.
However, this wasn't mentioned:

Only 33% of hospitals in the U.S. submitted COVID data this week, which is similar to last week but down from 91% in May.
This means actual case numbers and hospitalizations are substantially higher than reported.
BNO News (X, Sep 2, 2024)

You do realize that when the US stopped mandatory reporting of Covid-19 (and other respiratory viruses) hospitalizations on May 1, they also announced at the time they would resume mandatory reporting in the fall (aka Nov. 1) for the winter season. This is why the charts you posted show numbers per 100k per CDC rather than raw US numbers which would be skewed. That compensates since the 100k are based on the population associated with the reporting hospitais. So these charts are not significantly ompacted by the reporting mandate drop.

As for the predictions of an infection rate drop of 40% by the end of Sept. you linked to, seems pretty reasonable based on the dominance of KP3.1.1 and current lack of a new, competive variant. Note that hospitalizations are a lagging indicator to infections.

 

[The Atheist]

Moriarty’s estimates of COVID deaths are higher than provincial reports, the scientist asserts that her methods counteract chronic underreporting

Unlike The Atheist's estimates, Moriarty's are based on facts.

This is pure gold.

Facts v "estimates" and "assertion".

Which one is it? It can't be both.

Moriarty seems an appropriate name.

The idea that 1000 are dying a week from covid in Canada - higher than any period to date - is laughable and ignorant.

How strange you'd be typing it...

 

[marting]

This is pure gold.

Facts v "estimates" and "assertion".

Which one is it? It can't be both.

Moriarty seems an appropriate name.

The idea that 1000 are dying a week from covid in Canada - higher than any period to date - is laughable and ignorant.

How strange you'd be typing it...

Yep. 1k C19 deaths a week in CA is nuts on it's face.

 

[dann]

It's only nuts on its face if you don't bother reading what her estimate is based on.
That The Atheist doesn't understand the difference between his own wishful thinking and estimates based on facts is no surprise.

 

[dann]

Some people will argue the pandemic isn't over in 3...2...1...

Unlike those who claim that it is, they should consider getting the vaccines now:

As flu season approaches and COVID-19 cases continue across parts of United States, health experts are worried that many Americans are hesitant to get vaccinated.
According to a new survey from Ohio State Wexner Medical Center , less than half of Americans are planning to get their COVID or flu shots this season.
Dr. Nora Colburn, an infectious disease doctor with Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center, told CBS News these findings are "very concerning."
"We really need a large majority of our population to get vaccinated, to protect our entire community," she said.
The national poll of more than 1,000 people found more than a third — 37% — have gotten vaccines in the past but do not plan to this year.
Colburn says getting vaccines is critical in protecting yourself and others. Updated COVID-19 shots and this year's flu shots are currently being rolled out.
About half of Americans plan to skip COVID and flu shots. A doctor explains why that is "very concerning." (CBS News, Sep 13, 2024)

Generally, experts recommend COVID-19 and flu vaccines for most people and RSV vaccines for some.
The vaccines are all safe to get together at the same time.
Guide to 2024 Fall Vaccines: When to Get Your COVID, Flu, and RSV Shots (MSN.com, Sep 13, 2024)

ETA:

Dutch study:
"There was significant EXCESS mortality among people from the general population WITHOUT a C19 vaccination in 2021+2022, with actually an UNDER-mortality among vaccinated people."
Results even more pronounced in risk patients!
Ondersterfte bij COVID-19-gevaccineerden en oversterfte bij ongevaccineerden
Harry Spoelstra (X, Sep 13, 2024)

 

[dann]

Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn't go away: Variants

Here's the latest variant picture for the United Kingdom.
DeFLuQE variants (KP.3.1.1 and descendants) continue to grow, at the expense of FLuQE (KP.3.*) and FLiRT variants.
Mike Honey (Melbourne, Australia) (X, Sep 14, 2024)

KP.3.1.1 and the other DeFLuQE variants still appear to be on the rise everywhere:
Europe (minus UK)
Canada
USA
New Zealand
Australia

The seven countries reporting the most DeFLuQE samples in recent months:
Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, Sweden

 

[dann]

Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn't go away

... and hope is not a strategy:

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) published excellent data on deaths due to or with COVID-19 in Australia from 2022 to July 2024. Deaths dropped between 2022 and 2023, but they stopped dropping further in 2024. Is this baseline of death ‘living with COVID-19’?
(...)
That aligns with an expectation that vaccination and immunity from infection protect against the most severe outcome, death.
Still, even with that protection, the red and green lines in the earlier graph showed that monthly mortality is tracking quite similarly each year after the first surge of a novel virus into the community.
Is this what the future looks like? The ‘new normal’? ‘Living with COVID-19’?
Perhaps this balance will change further as we develop immunity to more variants. But that’s copium (wishful thinking), not fact. What we know is that SARS-CoV-2 keeps coughing up new variants with an approximately six monthly regularity.
In Australia, COVID-19 deaths may have stopped decreasing (VirologyDownUnder, Sep 6, 2024)

 

[dann]

Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn't go away

Excellent primer from public health and science communicator Lola Germs!

Why does everyone keep getting sick? Spring flu, summer flu, concert flu, colds, endless coughing, mysterious bugs, allergies - why do our immune systems suck now?? What's with all the new health issues like diabetes, high cholesterol and fatigue? Why are more athletes having heart attacks? Why do so many have brain fog, memory problems and can't think as well as before? Is our gut microbiome health worse? Are we all just more tired and ill than before for no reason?

Well, spoiler– it's not "lockdowns" or "immunity debt" or "thejab" or not exercising or not enough essential oils or vitamins or natural remedies or not thinking enough positive, high-vibration, wellness thoughts. It's something you may have never even heard of thanks to public health and governments not doing their jobs, but something you've probably already had a lot of encounters with, something you know ~deep down~ is not as over as the mainstream media or your profit-minded employer says it is, something that will not go away just because we wish it really hard..

This video essay offers a useful primer to this syndrome that is already affecting tens (likely hundreds) of millions of people across the world. Please share this information with your community and advocate for authorities to start taking our health seriously, because we all deserve so much better.. Subscribing, liking the video and commenting also helps out in satisfying the Youtube gods and getting this content to reach more people.

If this is your first time hearing about it, your emotional impulse might be to say that it can't be real, that it must be an exaggeration or conspiracy. If that's the case, we assure you we have only used high-quality, credible, reputable sources and research, which we recommend checking out in the reference list below. The PDF has short summaries for all the studies included, to make it as easy to understand and accessible as possible, with some bonus resources for those of you who like deep diving into topics.

00:00 - 00:54 Intro
00:54 - 02:05 What is long COVID?
02:05 - 05:04 What is LC, more specifically?
05:04 - 10:20 Some people are very ill (ME/CFS)
10:20 - 11:51 Who counts as having LC?
11:51 - 16:45 Why doesn't anyone I know have LC?
16:45 - 21:00 Why doesn't my doctor know about LC?
21:00 - 24:00 The vax and relax strategy is wrong
24:00 - 28:14 Being fine now ≠ fine forever
28:14 - 35:30 What the AIDS epidemic can teach us
35:30 - 41:39 Won't the government just fix it?
41:39 - 45:06 Canada is doing what to "fix it"??
45:06 - 51:22 It doesn't have to be like this
51:22 - 54:54 Recap

Why is EVERYONE more SICK? (Lola Germs on YouTube, July 5, 2024 - 54:55 min.)

 

[The Atheist]

It's only nuts on its face if you don't bother reading what her estimate is based on.
That The Atheist doesn't understand the difference between his own wishful thinking and estimates based on facts is no surprise.

No, it's plain nuts, and I'm going to continue showing it down your throat, because it's utterly wrong. Hand-waving away criticism then posting walls of irrelevant text won't let you off the hook.

Yet again, I'm forced to tell you to show evidence or retract your nonsensical claim. You claim 1000 people a week are dying of covid in Canada. That would be ridiculously easy to prove.

If it was true, which it is not.

The "estimate" of a single loon on Twatter proves nothing other than how easily you fall for BS that appears to support your pathological fear of covid.

Maybe try listening to the official data from Canada's expert health specialist instead of posting scaremongering utter garbage: https://globalnews.ca/video/10756004/health-matters-status-of-covid-19-in-canada/

I have a $100 bet you do not retract your idiotic claim and I just know it's money in the bank.

 

[dann]

Some people will argue the pandemic isn't over in 3...2...1...

'Let me off the hook!' And another one of those bets that are as good as his predictions!
Yeah right!
Minimizers will obviously object to any and all objections to their minimizations of the impact of the pandemic. The alleged "single loon on Twitter" happens to be "University of Toronto infectious disease expert Tara Moriarty," and as mentioned before, her estimates are based on facts. So far, The Atheist has come up with nothing more specific than ridiculing her name, which is in line with his usual Trump-style posting.
I don't think he understands the difference between, on the one hand, making unsubstantiated predictions based on nothing but wishful thinking, predictions that are obviously inconsistent with the numbers that are available at the time, and on the other hand, estimates of COVID-caused deaths based on all available information and data. The latter requires more than daydreaming, so it's no surprise that it isn't something that he's not up for.

But she posts on X and she's called Moriarty! Isn't that hilarious? Does everybody get the sophisticated joke?!

 

[The Atheist]

'Let me off the hook!' And another one of those bets that are as good as his predictions!
Yeah right!
Minimizers will obviously object to any and all objections to their minimizations of the impact of the pandemic. The alleged "single loon on Twitter" happens to be "University of Toronto infectious disease expert Tara Moriarty," and as mentioned before, her estimates are based on facts. So far, The Atheist has come up with nothing more specific than ridiculing her name, which is in line with his usual Trump-style posting.
I don't think he understands the difference between, on the one hand, making unsubstantiated predictions based on nothing but wishful thinking, predictions that are obviously inconsistent with the numbers that are available at the time, and on the other hand, estimates of COVID-caused deaths based on all available information and data. The latter requires more than daydreaming, so it's no surprise that it isn't something that he's not up for.

But she posts on X and she's called Moriarty! Isn't that hilarious? Does everybody get the sophisticated joke?!

How appropriate you'd write 200 words not admitting you're wrong and providing no evidence in support of your idiotic claim.

Accordingly, it is now obvious the claim is false.

 

[Egg]

...

It is grotesque that the only (electoral) alternative to this insanity is the MAGA candidate. And the third option is even more committed to his antivaxxer creed.
Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn't go away - no matter how firm that belief is, and as the DNC shows, it seems to be unshakeable at this point.

Any mitigation or even reporting of the current USA infection rates seems to be regarded as an election loser in a tight and highly significant election season. As a result, most people aren't even aware of the high case numbers.


Thanks for sharing your research, dann.

 

[marting]

Any mitigation or even reporting of the current USA infection rates seems to be regarded as an election loser in a tight and highly significant election season. As a result, most people aren't even aware of the high case numbers.

Case numbers are reported but only when tests are done by a medical center and most tests are not. Most people now test at home with a rapid test. They just isolate 5 days and if positive and older, they can call their doctor and get Paxlovid. None of these become cases. Not something new. This has been true since early 2022.

Mandatory Covid hospitalization reporting ceased May 1. It (and Flu reporting) will resume on Nov 1 for the expected winter season. As a result, only about 1/3 of hospitals report so the total number of hospitalizations is a big undercount. That's why the CDC reports hospitalizations per 100k people. This is relative to the service population so not affected by dropping mandatory reporting. If you look at those charts there was no sudden drop in May.

 

[The Atheist]

Case numbers are reported but only when tests are done by a medical center and most tests are not. Most people now test at home with a rapid test. They just isolate 5 days and if positive and older, they can call their doctor and get Paxlovid. None of these become cases. Not something new. This has been true since early 2022.

I hope you're able to navigate around all the stiffs right now.

If 1000/wk are getting wasted in Canadia there must be close to 10k dying in USA. Your hospitals must be getting crushed by the weight of numbers. They'll be stacking corpses in Central Park for sure.

Yet, it's really strange - despite the carnage that Dann would have people believe is happening from all these badly-named variants, I can't find a single news article from this year about covid being a problem in the American health system.

It's quite bizarre - all the waves that Dann and other covidphobics have been bleating about have passed and the impact has been 5/8 of **** all everywhere. Aussie, UK, NZ, India, Germany...

 

[marting]

I hope you're able to navigate around all the stiffs right now.

If 1000/wk are getting wasted in Canadia there must be close to 10k dying in USA. Your hospitals must be getting crushed by the weight of numbers. They'll be stacking corpses in Central Park for sure.

lol.

Yeah, the US is peaking around 1200 deaths/week with a very high summer infection wave. And infections are now declining. While cases, extrapolated from waste water testing, are as high or higher than they were last winter, deaths are lower. If Moriarty's model was applied to the US, we would be seeing around 10k/week based on the population ratio. But maybe Canadians are really, really different.

One problem with Moriarty's work is that it's estimated on a correlation of all cause mortality, with waste water data. While the latter data is current, the mortality data is significantly out of date. So his current estimate is based just on waste water and assumptions about the past. It really needs more substance.