How do we know a pandemic's over?

[dann]

And everywhere else.

Like I said, thankfully, there's only a minuscule minority of scaredy-cats still afreaid of covid, and I can't understand why - we have extremely successful antivrals and catching covid is the least worrisome thing ever.

I think we need to start describing it as covid-phobia. It's highly irrational.

You really struggle with English, and I do try to make allowances for the fact it's not your first language.

Telling people not to panic isn't panicking. It's the exact opposite of panicking, but I don't imagine that will stop you using the word incorrectly.

In post after post, we see comments from The Atheist like this one: "that idiotic comment without any evidence." And his comments are almost always idiotic and without any evidence.
Instead of posts based on having put in a bit of time and effort into looking up things, we are presented with tall tales based on wishful thinking and with deflection, another one of the main ingredients of those posts.
Native speakers of English must feel so proud every time they see those posts.
Telling people who are presenting facts not to panic is the exact opposite of not panicking, but some people don't seem to understand how conspicuous it makes their panic and how irrelevant to any discussion it makes their posts.

 

[The Atheist]

I'm glad I stuck to my irrational decision to wear an FFP-3 mask on crowded public transportation when I was in Hamburg last month. Unlike the approximately one-third of the rational unmasked passengers around me who were coughing, I didn't get sick.

Nothing irrational about that - lots of viruses are ones you don't want to catch.

Panicking over covid is irrational.

In post after post, we see comments from The Atheist like this one: "that idiotic comment without any evidence."

You're getting funnier with every post. Asking me to provide evidence that someone else provided no evidence is hilarious.

 

[dann]

My daughter has been spending this year in a Canadian university as a year abroad for her 3rd year. She got a Covid booster there and the nurse was shocked that it had been over a year since she had been able to get one in the UK. It seems normal for 20year olds to get boosters in Canada, which makes far more sense to me.

It is an excellent way of lowering the risk of getting Long Covid whether it's normal or not.
Denmark has made it impossible to get C19 boosters from February to September. And free vaccinations are only for 65+ and particularly vulnerable younger people. It seems to be more or less the same vaccine policy in the rest of the Nordics, probably not least thanks to anti-mRNA-vaxxers like Christine Stabell Benn and Tracy Beth Høegh.
The latter recently got fired from her American university, but I am not sure if it was due to her attitude to the mRNA vaccines.

It also seems stupid that I was entitled to a flu jab but not a Covid booster in the UK.

That is stupid.

 

[dann]

Panicking over covid is irrational.

Then stop panicking!

 

[icerat]

If you are younger than 65 the odds of dying of C19 are much lower than from an auto accident. OTOH, if you are over 65 risks go up and you might want to take additional precautions.

For pretty much everyone post-vaccine, the primary risks from SARS-CoV-2 is not acute death. It's sequalae, most notably (but not exclusively) Long Covid.

Focusing on deaths despite this well founded fact is deliberate distraction.

 

[icerat]

Then stop panicking!

Yes, that's a bit of a common tell. While we're quite calmly discussing facts, the implication of those facts clearly sends the likes of the atheist to the edge of panic, hence the need to so vehemently deny reality.

 

[jimbob]

For pretty much everyone post-vaccine, the primary risks from SARS-CoV-2 is not acute death. It's sequalae, most notably (but not exclusively) Long Covid.

Focusing on deaths despite this well founded fact is deliberate distraction.

Exactly.

Remember that although polio was sometimes lethal, it wasn't why it was feared

 

[The Atheist]

Yes, that's a bit of a common tell. While we're quite calmly discussing facts, the implication of those facts clearly sends the likes of the atheist to the edge of panic, hence the need to so vehemently deny reality.

Projection must be catching.

The "reality" of which you constantly speak is devoid of facts, common sense, and even reality. You consistently attempt to list information as evidence and it never shows what you think it does.

The NZ "excess death" numbers you pointed to is a perfect case in point - you screech about excess deaths, while totally failing to acknowledge that the negative deaths just months before equal the excess months later. Over time, the numbers didn't change at all.

There is zero evidence covid is killing "droves of people" and I'm sure you even made a claim those "droves" are in the millions, all without a shred of that evidence stuff. (Note: unverified and unexplained "excess death" numbers you cherry-pick are not evidence in favour of your idiotic premise)

But I'm panicking? Just to show what a stupid and ignorant claim that is, pray tell what I'm panicking about? Two random blokes posting gibberish while the entire rest of the world ignores them?

I'm not panicking about you, I'm laughing at you.

But hey, you try to sell it whichever way salves your ego.

 

[icerat]

The NZ "excess death" numbers you pointed to is a perfect case in point - you screech about excess deaths, while totally failing to acknowledge that the negative deaths just months before equal the excess months later. Over time, the numbers didn't change at all.

You correct, it is a "perfect case in point". You look at this graph and somehow think the area under the curve above the line is the same as the area under the curve below the line.



alternate reality

I'll help you out. Here's the most recent 6 months (to end of 2023) as "cumulative" excess mortality. Tip: if the graph is rising, weekly excess mortality is above normal.



And for comparison, here's global estimates of cumulative excess mortality during the pandemic, and the "official" covid death toll.



So, again I ask - what's driving excess deaths?

 

[The Atheist]

You correct, it is a "perfect case in point". You look at this graph and somehow think the area under the curve above the line is the same as the area under the curve below the line.

Oh. My. God.

They are! I specifically referred to that period, and in that time frame, excess deaths are zero.

Alternate reality

Thank you for at last posting the "evidence" your insane assertions about covid deaths are based on, and what that astounding evidence is.

I bloody love statistics. Whether Mr Clemens or Disraeli said it first about statistics, truer words have never been spoken.

Never mind Al Gore's hockey stick, the manner in which the graph is prersented is a visual masterpiece of disinformation. I could imagine the panic it would cause if people were shown a death rate rising almost vertically - armageddon is truly upon us!

Yet, if we use the actual numbers and ignore the cute graphics, the rate of excess death at the top of the graph is a Brobingnagian 0.3% above normal.

0.3%!!11!!!

I can't use OMG again, and the one with the F in it probably breaks a rule, so I'll stick with What The Hell?

In New Zealand, that means 100 deaths. Let that sink in for a second.

In a population of 5 million, there are possibly an extra 100 people croak. Nobody knows why. You jump to covid, which is nonsensical.

This is allegedly a skeptic site, so if you have conniptions about a death rate then jump to a completely unsupported opinion, with no evidence whatsoever (as to the cause of death) don't be suirprised when people don't buy it.

So, again I ask - what's driving excess deaths?

No idea, and I'm not silly enough to try to explain something until evidence is available to find out.

You obviously don't know much about NZ, but we're fairly advanced this side of the Ditch, and we have a very strong coronial system in place, and every corpse in New Zealand is given a cause of death.

When the information on causes of death is available, I'd enjoy discussing with you what the reasons were and would it have been different under variious scenarios.

In the meantime, if I want to play a game of chance, I'll stick to craps.

 

[icerat]

Oh. My. God.

They are! I specifically referred to that period, and in that time frame, excess deaths are zero.

Oh. My. God. Indeed.

You had significant under mortality during the first years of the pandemic (an interesting phenomenon in itself)

Since **October 2020* (let alone the past 2 years) excess mortality has been consistently above zero. The "mortality displacement" has been filled, and excess mortality continues. 0.3% is cumulative over the entire period of the pandemic. Yet EM *continues* to be significantly above zero. Guess what's going to keep happening to cumulative excess mortality, oh lover of statistics?



ETA:

In New Zealand, that means 100 deaths. Let that sink in for a second.

PS No it doesn't.

 

[The Atheist]

PS No it doesn't.

It absolutely does.

38,000 deaths a year in NZ from all causes. 0.3% is 114 deaths a year.

 

[marting]

For pretty much everyone post-vaccine, the primary risks from SARS-CoV-2 is not acute death. It's sequalae, most notably (but not exclusively) Long Covid.

Focusing on deaths despite this well founded fact is deliberate distraction.

Huh? Deaths and hospitalizations are excellent proxies for the prevalence of C19. Hence the lower levels are very positive indicators that sequalae /long covid will also decrease. In what way is that a distraction?

 

[icerat]

It absolutely does.

38,000 deaths a year in NZ from all causes. 0.3% is 114 deaths a year.

Sure, if it was a figure for one year, which it isn't.

 

[icerat]

Huh? Deaths and hospitalizations are excellent proxies for the prevalence of C19.

For trends, yes, for prevalence, no, not so much. Deaths and hospitalisations have in general been low ever since vaccines rolled out. That was due to vaccines, not lower prevalence. More recently it's been clear that decreased testing is also leading to fewer diagnosed covid deaths. More specifically though, your comments were on risk of dying from covid vs an automobile accident in the young. Long Covid has *always* been a bigger issue for the young than death.

Hence the lower levels are very positive indicators that sequalae /long covid will also decrease. In what way is that a distraction?

Yes, new onset Long Covid will clearly follow waves of disease.

 

[TragicMonkey]

For trends, yes, for prevalence, no, not so much. Deaths and hospitalisations have in general been low ever since vaccines rolled out. That was due to vaccines, not lower prevalence.

One of the metrics tracked here is covid diagnoses made in the emergency room. People get sick enough to come in, they get tested, and we track it. That metric works even if they're not so sick they need to be admitted, but it does omit the cases where they don't come in at all.

The lesson I'm drawing from it is that covid has been declining, but not as steadily or steeply as some seem to think it has, and there's still more of it going around than most seem to realize.

 

[icerat]

One of the metrics tracked here is covid diagnoses made in the emergency room. People get sick enough to come in, they get tested, and we track it. That metric works even if they're not so sick they need to be admitted, but it does omit the cases where they don't come in at all.

Ok, in many places, include UK and Sweden, people aren't even tested in ER anymore. There have been multiple cases of people confirmed positive only after they (or relatives) essentially demanded a test.

The lesson I'm drawing from it is that covid has been declining, but not as steadily or steeply as some seem to think it has, and there's still more of it going around than most seem to realize.

Wastewater is pretty much the only metric we have in a lot of places, and it's still a little experimental. Here in Sweden we're definitely in a lull at present, but given the size of the last wave only a few months ago, and significant antibody waning not occurring until after 3-6 months, that's to be expected. By July a large proportion of the population will probably be susceptible again, but I expect Swedish summer behaviour will temper things until Autumn, even if a new variant emerges elsewhere.

 

[marting]

CDC discontinues mandatory Covid19 reporting

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#datatracker-home

Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital capacity, or hospital occupancy data to HHS through CDC’s National Healthcare Safety Network (NHSN). CDC encourages ongoing, voluntary reporting of hospitalization data. Data voluntarily reported to NHSN after May 1, 2024, will be available starting May 10, 2024, at COVID Data Tracker Hospitalizations.

Since reporting is voluntary, they will be reporting hospitalizations/100k rather than totals.

C19 has continued to decline here in San Diego with less than 10 deaths (3.3m pop) in the last month.

 

[The Atheist]

Given the lowest-ever number of hospitalisations right ow, that makes sense.

Health authorities have better things to do.

Some people will argue the pandemic isn't over in 3...2...1...

 

[marting]

Given the lowest-ever number of hospitalisations right ow, that makes sense.

Health authorities have better things to do.

Some people will argue the pandemic isn't over in 3...2...1...

Crickets...

The CDC's main web site doesn't even have Covid-19 on its main page. The leading articles are about bird flu, heart disease, heat risk, and measles. And a link to a story about E. Coli in organic walnuts.

https://www.cdc.gov/