How do we know a pandemic's over?

[The Atheist]

Just when you thought it was over...

The pandemic is, the disease isn't.

Nice to see you've taken up Dann's "let's try to create panic" baton since he seems to have left the threads.

Let's have a look at your post in depth:

Covid-19 wastewater levels rise for three weeks in a row

Yes, that's the headline. The fact is: A small increase and in line with previous changes in levels.

Just one problem with that - the December wave was not 'much smaller than many of the previous waves'. In fact it was larger than the previous one.

Wrong, as evinced by the graph you even posted. It was smaller than 3 of the 4 previous waves, so it's 100% correct to say smaller than most/many of the previous waves.

However when I looked at the numbers yesterday I noticed a peculiar change - hospital numbers at the peak of that wave had been revised downwards.

Ockham's Razor says the numbers were previously incorrect, because the alternative is there's a conspiracy between the government and the ministry to minimise cases.

 

[icerat]

The pandemic is, the disease isn't.

As I've noted earlier, there is no definition of when a pandemic is over or not, however the disease is certainly not endemic as we've got no handle on predicting these waves.

The said, the UK Office of National Statistics has announced their new method of calculating excess deaths where they're not considering the previous "excess" deaths caused by Covid to be part of "normal", unless they're especially excess.

Other countries have also started including post-2020 years into their calculations of baseline "normal" mortality, though with less sophistication than the ONS method.

So ... authorities are now considering the millions (?) of people a year dying from Covid (acute and sequalae) as now just part of the accepted "new normal".

Which doesn't sound much like a pandemic to me. Nor epidemic, since it's still global. But not endemic either.

Seems we need a new term.

(Interestingly, the CDC doesn't regularly calculate excess mortality, so this line of thought doesn't really apply to the US)

 

[Roger Ramjets]

The pandemic is, the disease isn't.

Wrong.

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is a global outbreak of coronavirus

Yes, that's the headline. The fact is: A small increase and in line with previous changes in levels.

Wastewater doesn't lie. It's not in line with previous changes relative to reported cases, and the latest increase is not 'small' in comparison. It's proportionally way higher in this surge than any previous one. That tells you that the reported cases are now way lower than reality. The only place Covid is 'over' is in people's minds.

Wrong, as evinced by the graph you even posted. It was smaller than 3 of the 4 previous waves, so it's 100% correct to say smaller than most/many of the previous waves.

Smaller, but not much smaller. And I don't call 3 'many'.

Definition of many

1: consisting of or amounting to a large but indefinite number

2: being one of a large but indefinite number

In what world is 3 a 'large' number?

The fact is that this latest surge in hospitalizations is both larger and longer than the previous one. And now it's going up again. There is no indication that it will wane any time soon.

In July we might have thought it was over, but the numbers refuse to stay down. The truth is we really just don't know when it will end.

A 'large' number of people are still getting Covid, most of them (69%) multiple times, and some who did OK previously are now getting long Covid. The longer this pandemic continues the worse the cumulative effect will be. Add in a National government looking to trim more (nonexistent) fat off the health system and the future's not looking good.

Ockham's Razor says the numbers were previously incorrect, because the alternative is there's a conspiracy between the government and the ministry to minimise cases.

We a have a conservative government now, which has an incentive to make the figures look smaller. This unannounced revision is mighty suspicious. But hey, it's only 22%. If the pandemic is truly over this small difference isn't a biggy, and if it's not over it may be nothing compared with what's to come.

 

[Roger Ramjets]

The said, the UK Office of National Statistics has announced their new method of calculating excess deaths where they're not considering the previous "excess" deaths caused by Covid to be part of "normal", unless they're especially excess...

Other countries have also started including post-2020 years into their calculations of baseline "normal" mortality, though with less sophistication than the ONS method.

So ... authorities are now considering the millions (?) of people a year dying from Covid (acute and sequalae) as now just part of the accepted "new normal".

How to lie with statistics. Deplorable.

But that's humans for you. Given the choice between facing up to reality and lying to themselves...

 

[jt512]

As I've noted earlier, there is no definition of when a pandemic is over or not...

The definition of pandemic—a widespread above-normal incidence of a disease—implies when the pandemic is over: when the incidence is no longer above normal.

however the disease is certainly not endemic as we've got no handle on predicting these waves.

Everything I've read, written by numerous epidemiologists, states that COVID-19 will peak every winter, just like other respiratory viral disease do. I think it remains to be seen whether there will be regular summer spikes as well.

The said, the UK Office of National Statistics has announced their new method of calculating excess deaths where they're not considering the previous "excess" deaths caused by Covid to be part of "normal", unless they're especially excess.

Other countries have also started including post-2020 years into their calculations of baseline "normal" mortality, though with less sophistication than the ONS method.

So ... authorities are now considering the millions (?) of people a year dying from Covid (acute and sequalae) as now just part of the accepted "new normal".

It's not a question of what anybody is "considering" or "accepting." It is merely a question of fact. If it is the new normal, then it is the new normal, whether you happen to like it or not.

Which doesn't sound much like a pandemic to me. Nor epidemic, since it's still global. But not endemic either.

You're applying the wrong definition of "endemic." There is nothing in the general definition of "endemic disease" that implies that the disease must be geographically restricted. A disease can be endemic worldwide; the common cold and influenza are.

 

[The Atheist]

So ... authorities are now considering the millions (?) of people a year dying from Covid (acute and sequalae) as now just part of the accepted "new normal".

Millions?

You're so far off it's parody.

Smaller, but not much smaller. And I don't call 3 'many'.

When there's only been 4, the obvious term is "most". Someone made a syntax error, and only pedants and panic merchants would use it as any kind of argument.

In July we might have thought it was over, but the numbers refuse to stay down. The truth is we really just don't know when it will end.

It doesn't matter and it will probably never end. New vaccines will continue to be produced and there will be new drugs to match or beat Paxlovid. It's just another thing we have to think about it when it happens.

A 'large' number of people are still getting Covid, most of them (69%) multiple times, and some who did OK previously are now getting long Covid.

Evidence?

We a have a conservative government now, which has an incentive to make the figures look smaller. This unannounced revision is mighty suspicious. But hey, it's only 22%. If the pandemic is truly over this small difference isn't a biggy, and if it's not over it may be nothing compared with what's to come.

So it is a conspiracy in your view. The numbers have been changed to suit the government. Cute.

I repeat what I've said before - NZ hospitals get snowed under during every 'flu season and pre-pandemic there was even a January peak that ciaused excess wait times. That hasn't happened with this covid wave, so I don't believe it'a as bad as you and Michael Plank (who has an extremely vested interest in porlonging the pandemic) are saying.

The government cannot cover up the obvious and clear media reports that would be everywhere if hospitals were anywhere near struggling.

A few oldies whose toe-tags have already been printed are dying, Boo-hoo.

 

[Roger Ramjets]

Millions?

You're so far off it's parody.

He did put a question mark on it.

Current reported deaths are ~3,000 per week or 156,000 per year. This is much lower that it was at the peak, however that is to be expected as vaccines, better drugs and medical care are keeping people alive - though not necessarily healthy.

More importantly though, is the virus waning? The growth factor says no.

When there's only been 4, the obvious term is "most". Someone made a syntax error, and only pedants and panic merchants would use it as any kind of argument.

'Syntax error', or deliberate use of a wrong word to boost the narrative?

It doesn't matter and it will probably never end. New vaccines will continue to be produced and there will be new drugs to match or beat Paxlovid. It's just another thing we have to think about it when it happens.

Thanks for admitting the pandemic isn't over.

So it is a conspiracy in your view. The numbers have been changed to suit the government. Cute.

All we know is that the numbers have been changed, not why. However we do know of other cases where they were changed for political reasons, so it's reasonable to consider the possibility of it being done in this case too - especially with a National government.

The government cannot cover up the obvious and clear media reports that would be everywhere if hospitals were anywhere near struggling.

When did I ever say they were struggling?

But in his 'State of the Nation' speech a few days ago, our Prime Minister talked about the country's "fragile" situation, stating that "Hospitals... take longer to see patients, and then longer to treat them for serious illnesses". Currently the health system is suffering from a deficit of about 1000 doctors and 3000 to 4000 nurses. 300 Covid patients in hospital with 22 in ICU isn't helping.

A few oldies whose toe-tags have already been printed are dying, Boo-hoo.

As an 'oldie' myself (67 this year), I resent your attitude. But it's not deaths I'm so worried about. Many people are getting 'long covid' even after catching it before and recovering well. And not just old people. We could be looking at decades of chronic illness straining the health system and social welfare, to support younger people who can't work because they are always tired and/or have brain fog.

Life with Long Covid - what it's really like

More than 2000 people in New Zealand have registered as having Long Covid, while another 1200 have started the process to join the official registry.

It was set up by University of Auckland researchers to get a better understanding of how many people in New Zealand have the disease.

Those academics think around 10 to 20 percent of people infected by Covid-19 may go on to develop Long Covid, which means up to 200,000 could be suffering...

Just a year ago, 37 year-old Rufial was a busy mum of two with a baby on the way. She was active, climbing mountains and regularly hosting a church group.

Now, after catching Covid-19 in late 2022, she battles daily with extreme fatigue and often loses the ability to use her legs, arms and torso.
"I don't have a life... I can't take a bath or go for a walk. I can't even listen to music or watch TV, the stimulus is too much and it tires me out. I just desperately want to do some baking, some sewing, or take my baby for a walk in the pram. I've never done that."

 

[The Atheist]

Thanks for admitting the pandemic isn't over.

I guess you can pick a meaning of pandemic that means it will never be over, so if that's what you want, go for it.

My thought is that if we continue to focus on covid being a pandemic at this stage, we've turned into the Boy Who Called Wolf and when the next real pandemic strikes nobody will give a damn and millions will die as a result. Maybe hundreds of millions.

When did I ever say they were struggling?

In NZ, if they're not struggling it's not a problem.

Many people are getting 'long covid' even after catching it before and recovering well.

My favourite subject, long covid/ME/CFS.

Check in the main covid thread - it looks like it might be done and dusted.

 

[Roger Ramjets]

My thought is that if we continue to focus on covid being a pandemic at this stage, we've turned into the Boy Who Called Wolf and when the next real pandemic strikes nobody will give a damn and millions will die as a result. Maybe hundreds of millions.

No, it's going to happen because we 'did' the pandemic thing once and aren't up for doing it again.

This is why the current pandemic isn't over. It's actually several pandemics coming one after the other, with people constantly being reinfected by new strains. But now everybody thinks it's no big deal and can't bothered taking precautions anymore, so all it will take is one 'new' virus that evades current immunity and then millions will die.

 

[The Atheist]

But now everybody thinks it's no big deal and can't bothered taking precautions anymore, so all it will take is one 'new' virus that evades current immunity and then millions will die.

Except we know that's not the case. JN1 is by far the most infectious and best at escaping immunity and hardly anyone is dying.

 

[BrettM]

As I've noted earlier, there is no definition of when a pandemic is over or not, however the disease is certainly not endemic as we've got no handle on predicting these waves.

Even Michael Plank, who has a dog in this particular fight, says that the disease is endemic:

"In the light of this, Plank co-authored an article on 24 August 2023 that acknowledged while the disease had become endemic, mathematical modelling showed that there was still a risk of new variants that could prove difficult to manage."

Link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Plank

 

[Roger Ramjets]

Except we know that's not the case. JN1 is by far the most infectious and best at escaping immunity and hardly anyone is dying.

A pandemic isn't measured by how many people die.

Today I decided to get another booster shot. When I asked the nurse she said a new vaccine is coming out next week, so next week it is then (can't get another one for 6 months so better to wait a week).

Here's a pretty chart showing how the variants are progressing in New Zealand:-

Interesting to see how rapidly the JN1 variant has taken over, much faster than most previous mutations (XBB was dominant for the longest time, but now it's practically dead). This shows that new variants are easily able to evade existing herd immunity. Since most people think it's 'over' and aren't taking precautions any more, we can only hope that more virulent mutations don't arise.

The other thing of interest is a small amount of early BA2.x showing up again - that's the 'endemic' part.

 

[The Atheist]

Today I decided to get another booster shot. When I asked the nurse she said a new vaccine is coming out next week, so next week it is then (can't get another one for 6 months so better to wait a week).

Smart move - the newest vaccine is far better than the previous bivalent one, which is largely useless now.

 

[icerat]

The definition of pandemic—a widespread above-normal incidence of a disease—implies when the pandemic is over: when the incidence is no longer above normal.

Yes, and we still don't know what "normal" is.

Everything I've read, written by numerous epidemiologists, states that COVID-19 will peak every winter, just like other respiratory viral disease do. I think it remains to be seen whether there will be regular summer spikes as well.

QED. "it remains to be seen" - it's not (yet?) predictable waves. We're 2.5yrs post-mass vaccination and waves are driven both by "seasonality" and new variants.

It's not a question of what anybody is "considering" or "accepting." It is merely a question of fact. If it is the new normal, then it is the new normal, whether you happen to like it or not.

Which is what I said, isn't it?

You're applying the wrong definition of "endemic." There is nothing in the general definition of "endemic disease" that implies that the disease must be geographically restricted. A disease can be endemic worldwide; the common cold and influenza are.

And you misread what I wrote. I didn't say "endemic" couldn't be worldwide.

Millions?

You're so far off it's parody.

I (a) put a ? to that and more importantly included (b) sequalae.

Global excess mortality continues to be in the millions per year compared to prior to the pandemic. Anti-vaxxers reckon it's caused by the vax. GBDers reckon it's caused by 2020 lockdowns. I reckon it's (mostly) caused by SARS-CoV-2

 

[FatherLukeduke]

Yes, and we still don't know what "normal" is.

Global excess mortality continues to be in the millions per year compared to prior to the pandemic.

I can't find any estimates past 2022 - where you getting your recent data from?

 

[ahhell]

Except we know that's not the case. JN1 is by far the most infectious and best at escaping immunity and hardly anyone is dying.

There are apparently selective pressures on diseases to ensure this happens. A host dying to quickly won't spread the disease. Apparently, this was first noticed in syphilis, when it was first noticed in the 1500s it apparently killed people quickly and horribly, the version around now kills you horribly and slowly.

Its currently just a hypothesis mind you.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8447366/

 

[The Atheist]

Global excess mortality continues to be in the millions per year compared to prior to the pandemic.

Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence, and that's as wild-ass claim as I've seen, so bring the evidence.

 

[marting]

Didn't see any masks at the annual SOTU and it was sure crowded with lots of people shouting.

 

[The Atheist]

Outside of Chinese and a few other SE Asians, masks haven't been seen here for 18 months.

No matter what the official line is, in the minds of the overwhelming majority of people, the pandemic is over.

 

[ahhell]

Outside of Chinese and a few other SE Asians, masks haven't been seen here for 18 months.

No matter what the official line is, in the minds of the overwhelming majority of people, the pandemic is over.

Here, even the women that used to cross to the otherside of the street while wearing a mask to avoid being within 10 ft of others, doesn't wear a mask. I still see some folks in masks in the grocery but it's pretty uncommon. Part of it is that there is at least some evidence that to provide any benefit, a mask has to be a properly fitted N95 worn more or less when ever you are indoors. So a lot of folks gave up on that score.