How do we know a pandemic's over?

[Skeptic Ginger]

Chanakya, do you know the influenza pandemic is over? Why or why not?

Which one? The HPAI H5N1 is still smoldering. It hasn't adapted to spread easily person to person. It was first recognized in Hong Kong in 1997. It may never make that leap, or it might have already occurred in some obscure village in an African country that has a poor public health infrastructure.

The more animals and people who contract it the more likely a deadly pandemic will evolve.

I, for one, will never let my guard down or underestimate the potential for the next deadly influenza pandemic. History tells us it will happen we just don't know when.


CDC update Dec 2023

 

[8enotto]

That 98% of the population is definitely at the post-pandemic stage, and only the WHO is mentioning covid because they want more funds. Not even medical establishments here (or anywhere else I know of) insist on masks any more. Covid has only been killing people with a toe-tag already ordered for a couple of years now. I'd say well under 1% of non-Asians are wearing masks right now and Asians were wearing them prior to covid so don't count.

There is, however, a tiny minority of people who want to stay in pandemic mode forever. They're clearly suffering from some form of societal anxiety/phobia and it suits them to socially distance and mask up so they don't have to interact with actual people in the real world.

It's quite sad, really.

I suspect a lot of the folks who can't let go lost grandparents, parents or lived in harder hit areas.

It's like that here in my city. In my mostly rural part population density is lower, less contact. In town houses are packed tight on tiny lots and older folks lived there for reduced yard care and house keeping.
Thats where population density and death rate was far higher.

My 85 year old FIL had a few in his siblings very concerned about getting any sicker than they already were. One died during 2022 of heart problems, the rest are still here.
Try telling them faith in god and CV precautions are a joke. They know what spared them!

 

[The Atheist]

I think some people see pandemic lockdown as a way to destroy capitalism, and usher in an age of human suffering like nothing ever seen before in recorded history.

That too.

The idea that the world could implement the protocols used at Davos would make the cost of the original lockdowns look like pocket change.

As for ignoring COVID preventative measures like it's one's religious conviction to do so, go suck eggs.

Nice strawman you created there - nobody is doing that.

What I and others are saying is that the vast majority of the population has zero interest in taking precautions.

For Zarquon's sake, thousands of people were protesting violently about restrictions when they were absolutely necessary - trying to implement restrictions now is far beyond absurd, and completely unnecessary.

We are all individuals in different countries. I'm severely immunocompromised with an autoimmune respiratory disease. I don't care if you wear a mask or not. Same with getting vaccinated.

I've stated many times that I am fully vaccinated and recommend vaccination to everyone who asks me, as many people do. My son is also immunocompromised with an auto-immune disease that has already cost him 30 cm of lower intestine. He wears a mask and I wear one as well. That's my choice, but I don't expect anyone else to wear one.

I suspect a lot of the folks who can't let go lost grandparents, parents or lived in harder hit areas.

No problem there - if I was 90 I wouldn't go outside without a mask, but I still wouldn't be crying about other people not doing so.

 

[dann]

The article, as is all too common, provides different stats for Covid-19 v Flu. The former has an increase over a month 73%, the latter over a week, 29%. But, I suppose, consistency is the hopgoblin of small minds.

That said, Covid-19 CFR's are still more fatal. However, since Flu is increasing about twice as fast as Covid-19 (29% v 15%* per week *C19 stats adjusted for monthly to weekly) Flu is currently more contagious than Covid-19.

It would have sufficed to simply say that Covid-19 is much more fatal than the flu - not just in Denmark, not just in England, not just in San Diego, but in all of the USA as well.
And it is much more fatal all year round:

Week Ending: 2023-12-09
COVID-19: 3.2%
Influenza: 0.5%
RSV: 0.1%
Trends in Viral Respiratory Deaths in the United States - Weekly percent of total deaths associated with COVID-19, influenza, and RSV (CDC.gov)

In fact, in the week when the flu was at its worst in the chart, Week Ending: 2022-12-17, the percentages were:

COVID-19: 4.8%
Influenza: 1.6%
RSV: 0.1%

And then, of course, there are the 12 weeks when the seasonal flu, unlike COVID-19, is at 0.

COVID-19 was at its lowest in the week ending 23-07-15: 0.9%
COVID-19 was at its highest in the two weeks ending 23-01-07 and 23-01-14: 5.6%

We all know that these numbers won't prevent our resident minimizers from continuing to claim that COVID-19 is just like the flu or the common cold. It will just make the lie more obvious for those of us who remember them.

And I'm sorry, but this is one of the most ridiculous arguments I've heard about the flu and COVID-19 so far:
"Because Covid-19 is so spread out compared to flu that even though its impact is similar to a bad flu season overall, it's not stressing health care."

So spread out that it's not stressing health care! Take a look at the CDC chart!

 

[dann]

I do care about people amplifying misinformation just because they are annoyed not everyone wants to take the same, 'ignore it', POV.

I care too, and so do several other people in the thread, but The Atheist nevertheless insists that

Nobody cares.

It's the background noise of pandemic gaslighting.

 

[icerat]

That 98% of the population is definitely at the post-pandemic stage, and only the WHO is mentioning covid because they want more funds. Not even medical establishments here (or anywhere else I know of) insist on masks any more. Covid has only been killing people with a toe-tag already ordered for a couple of years now. I'd say well under 1% of non-Asians are wearing masks right now and Asians were wearing them prior to covid so don't count.

There is, however, a tiny minority of people who want to stay in pandemic mode forever. They're clearly suffering from some form of societal anxiety/phobia and it suits them to socially distance and mask up so they don't have to interact with actual people in the real world.

It's quite sad, really.

In the US alone some 40000 people a week are being hospitalised by a disease that didn't even exist a little over 4 years ago. That's on top of all the diseases we already had.

Around the world, thousands - likely tens of thousands - are being added to the ranks of Long Covid sufferers every day.

And we still no little about the long-term consequences of even one SARS-Cov-2 infection, let alone multiple infections a year - but what indications we do have are extremely concerning.

 

[dann]

Director-General of WHO, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus:

Respiratory illnesses from #COVID19, flu and other pathogens have been on the increase in many countries for weeks and this is expected to continue following the recent holidays.
As individuals: make sure to test and seek care when needed because COVID-19 treatments can prevent severe disease and death. Continue to use masks, ventilation and distancing to reduce exposures, and make sure you and your loved ones are up to date on your COVID-19 and flu shots.
As governments: provide access to reliable tests, treatments and vaccines, especially to those who are most at risk for severe infection.
Keep up surveillance, sequencing and reporting to track COVID-19 virus evolution, and provide clear messaging about the risks and measures to reduce risk for your populations.
These @WHO recommendations provide more about what is needed by governments to tackle the continued global threats of COVID-19:
Standing recommendations for COVID-19 issued by the Director-General of the World Health Organization (WHO) in accordance with the International Health Regulations (2005) (IHR)
Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus (X, Jan 5, 2023)

For some reason, I no longer see these messages from WHO in the media in Denmark:
Aconseja OMS continuar con las mascarillas y la vacunación ante creciente incidencia de la covid-19 en el mundo (JuventudRebelde.cu, Jan 7, 2023)

 

[dann]

Weekly case update: Monday 1 January to Sunday 7 January.
There were 6,558 cases reported last week in total, 3,999 of those were reinfections.
The 7-day rolling average of new cases is 936.
Unite against COVID-19 @covid19nz (X, Jan 8, 2023)

Cases currently in hospital: 355
Cases currently in ICU/HDU: 6
COVID-19 cases summary

 

[dann]

Chanakya, do you know the influenza pandemic is over? Why or why not?

Why or why not look it up yourself?!

 

[dann]

Covid has only been killing people with a toe-tag already ordered for a couple of years now. I'd say well under 1% of non-Asians are wearing masks right now and Asians were wearing them prior to covid so don't count.

The principle is that everything is interpreted by The Atheist as proving his point.
His most disgusting idea, the toe-tag one, doesn't need any reference to facts whatsoever.
As I mentioned above, Jonathan Howard witnessed toe-tags being used at a hospital during the first year of the pandemic before the bodies of COVID-19 victims were stored in refrigerator trucks outside hospitals, and he will be addressing the idea in one of the next episodes of his podcast series.

But since The Atheist doesn't listen to anything pandemic-related that doesn't come out of the Brownstone Institute, I doubt that he will ever understand it. He also doesn't seem to understand that, if true, his 'toe-tag' (or dry tinder) idea should have resulted in subsequent exiguous deaths. But for some reason, we still see excess deaths in most of the Western world except in the places where they have now started incorporating the first pandemic years in their calculations, which is an ingenious way to make excess deaths disappear. In the future, the only way to see the excess deaths caused by the pandemic may be in statistics of life expectancy.
Life expectancy - 1770 to 2021 (Our World in Data)

Notice that dip at the end of the life-expectancy curves? It is amazing that killing only people with (allegedly) just a few weeks of life left in them can have an impact like that, isn't it?!

That Asians don't count because they always masked up during pandemics is hilarious. They knew how to protect themselves then, and they still do, so they don't count - unlike the ignorant Westerners who never knew and still don't. They are the ones who should be our role models.
(By the way, far from all Asians mask up, unfortunately. It's how a face mask study could be carried out in Bangladesh.)

 

[The Atheist]

And we still no little about the long-term consequences of even one SARS-Cov-2 infection, let alone multiple infections a year - but what indications we do have are extremely concerning.

That's all true, but irrelevant.

People won't take precautions, and thankfully no government is trying to make them.

I made the comment elsewhere that covid might even be the end game. If - as suspected - life expectancy is shorted by any amount from covid infections, and we add in reduced immunity to other diseases, which may be driving the "tripledemic" it might get a lot worse yet.

Try telling blokes their dick will drop off if they catch covid, then see if they wear masks. In the lack of that, people will continue to completely ignore covid, and no screeching from the sidelines is going to change attitudes.

That Asians don't count because they always masked up during pandemics is hilarious.

Your understanding of English gets worse by the day.

I was pointing out that whether they wear masks now isn't to do with covid, but because they habitually wear them.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

That too.

The idea that the world could implement the protocols used at Davos would make the cost of the original lockdowns look like pocket change. ...

For Zarquon's sake, thousands of people were protesting violently about restrictions when they were absolutely necessary - trying to implement restrictions now is far beyond absurd, and completely unnecessary.

Nice strawman you created there. No one here is doing that or even suggesting a lockdown. Not sure about China.

Nice strawman you created there - nobody is doing that.

What I and others are saying is that the vast majority of the population has zero interest in taking precautions.

I didn't quote you, did I. But this is the kind of comment I am addressing. TP is worse making up paranoid nonsense that lockdowns are a plot yada yada...

 

[dann]

I was pointing out that whether they wear masks now isn't to do with covid, but because they habitually wear them.

I spent the last 2 weeks traveling in Japan. Subways full mostly unmasked people.

You guys should ask somebody to help you coordinate your nonsensical arguments against PPE.

 

[icerat]

That's all true, but irrelevant.

People won't take precautions, and thankfully no government is trying to make them.

I'm actually not a fan of mandates except in rare instances. I'm definitely not a fan of misinformation however. We need education, not misinformation.

I made the comment elsewhere that covid might even be the end game. If - as suspected - life expectancy is shorted by any amount from covid infections, and we add in reduced immunity to other diseases, which may be driving the "tripledemic" it might get a lot worse yet.

Mmm, it's bets on whether Covid or Climate Change causes the collapse of civilisation first ..

Try telling blokes their dick will drop off if they catch covid, then see if they wear masks.

It actually does cause erectile dysfunction, which is no surprise as a vascular disease.

In the lack of that, people will continue to completely ignore covid, and no screeching from the sidelines is going to change attitudes.

Masks have been too ideological poisoned, and personally I think are third choice. We simply need to do what we did once we accepted waterborne disease was a problem - we cleaned the water.

Sure you can do that at point of use, and a lot of places still do, but clean communal water is what the aspire too.

Accept that airborne disease is a problem and clean the air. Masks are point of use, but ventilation and filters can have a dramatic effect, not to meantio far-UV. It ends up that current building codes in most places *already* require removal of pathogens, it's just nobody is doing it. All we have to do is implement existing regulations using modern tech, and IMO we can *dramatically* impact public health.

 

[The Atheist]

No one here is doing that or even suggesting a lockdown.

Maybe you could try reading what I actually typed. I specifically mentioned cost but you've chosen to ignore that, or deliberately misrepresent it.

TP is worse making up paranoid nonsense that lockdowns are a plot yada yada...

Wow. I don't know what you're smoking but it must be really potent - you're on a completely different page.

I'm actually not a fan of mandates except in rare instances. I'm definitely not a fan of misinformation however. We need education, not misinformation.

People will only be educated about things they want to be educated about. Interest in covid is so close to zero there's no chance people will bother to inform themselves.

It actually does cause erectile dysfunction, which is no surprise as a vascular disease.

Fairly small percentage of guys, sadly. If you can get it to 80-90% you'll get some traction.

Accept that airborne disease is a problem and clean the air. Masks are point of use, but ventilation and filters can have a dramatic effect, not to meantio far-UV. It ends up that current building codes in most places *already* require removal of pathogens, it's just nobody is doing it. All we have to do is implement existing regulations using modern tech, and IMO we can *dramatically* impact public health.

That's the bit I can't have. The cost would be prohibitive everywhere in the world. Schools in NZ are ventilated by windows and the cost of giving just schools adequate clean air would run into billions of dollars we don't have. Add in every medical facility and office and you're talking numbers more than our GDP.

Then there's the issue of skilled people to do it. Given that we can't find enough people to put HVAC systems in data centres, the chances of getting just schools done is plain fantasy. NZ is a relatively rich country and if we can't do it there's even less chance other countries can.

The idea that we can use tech to fix it is nonsensical.

 

[dann]

I'm actually not a fan of mandates except in rare instances. I'm definitely not a fan of misinformation however. We need education, not misinformation.

People will only be educated about things they want to be educated about. Interest in covid is so close to zero there's no chance people will bother to inform themselves.

The Atheist doesn't want to be educated about the pandemic. His interest in epidemiology is close to zero and he won't bother informing himself. On the contrary, he excels in spreading disinformation and has filled this thread and others with it.

It actually does cause erectile dysfunction, which is no surprise as a vascular disease.

Fairly small percentage of guys, sadly. If you can get it to 80-90% you'll get some traction.

That is The Atheist trying to be outrageous while minimizing the impact of the pandemic: 'Not enough men get COVID-19-generated erectile dysfunction.'

Accept that airborne disease is a problem and clean the air. Masks are point of use, but ventilation and filters can have a dramatic effect, not to meantio far-UV. It ends up that current building codes in most places *already* require removal of pathogens, it's just nobody is doing it. All we have to do is implement existing regulations using modern tech, and IMO we can *dramatically* impact public health.

That's the bit I can't have. The cost would be prohibitive everywhere in the world. Schools in NZ are ventilated by windows and the cost of giving just schools adequate clean air would run into billions of dollars we don't have. Add in every medical facility and office and you're talking numbers more than our GDP.

Then there's the issue of skilled people to do it. Given that we can't find enough people to put HVAC systems in data centres, the chances of getting just schools done is plain fantasy. NZ is a relatively rich country and if we can't do it there's even less chance other countries can.

The idea that we can use tech to fix it is nonsensical.

Any (easily solved) practical problem (and solution!) lowering the spread of the virus is an insurmountable obstacle to The Atheist: "plain fantasy", "nonsensical" etc. for no other reason than because he says so! 'Don't mess with the virus! It's good for you!':

The poster has consistently pleaded for the precautions taken at Davos to be taken up globally.
That is ignorant, impossible and insane, and that's what I'm referring to.
The disease exists and will continue to exist, although the trajectory its on almost certainly means it will become less of a problem, because we now know that repeated exposure creates stronger immunity. 5 more years and it's likely to be just another coronavirus.

(That the virus keeps mutating and evading that allegedly "stronger immunity" while weakening immunity is of no concern to him.)

When #DavosStandard as a practical example proves that the spread of the virus can be limited, The Atheist is upset because he sees it as a threat to his herd-immunity-by-infection ideology. It also costs good money that should stay in the pockets of billionaires:

No, I don't expect or care whether anyone listens to me. Those who did made a heap of money and those who didn't, didn't.

The Atheist is one of the most obvious examples of the fact that business calculations, the market economy, capitalism, is the main obstacle to proper health-care interventions: Protecting people's health just isn't feasible to his line of thinking unless those people happen to be billionaires.
If they happen to be school children, precautions to protect their health are "ignorant, impossible and insane." 'Tech is there to serve the rich and make a heap of money for them. Tech shouldn't be squandered on protecting the health of ordinary people and their kids.'

 

[dann]

Canary Islands announce new Covid face mask rules and they're coming into force tomorrow (Express.co.uk, Jan 8, 2024)

Both Covid and flu is on the rise across Spain and its islands, leading to pressures on hospitals
The Canary Islands have joined a growing list of Spanish holiday hotspots introducing face mask rules.
It comes as Covid and flu cases soar across the nation with hospitalisations on the rise.
As of Tuesday, those visiting the Canaries will have to use masks when visiting health centres, chemists and hospitals - with the Canary government stating that the rules will remain while the peak of the epidemic plays out. Up until now, masks were simply recommended in these settings, but they will now be mandatory in both public and private healthcare facilities across the islands.
Canary Islands bring back face mask rules as Covid cases surge across Spain (Chronicle.co.uk, Jan 9, 2024)

The surge appears to have come later in Spain than in Northern Europe.

 

[The Atheist]

Any (easily solved) practical problem (and solution!) lowering the spread of the virus is an insurmountable obstacle to The Atheist: "plain fantasy", "nonsensical" etc. for no other reason than because he says so! 'Don't mess with the virus! It's good for you!':

Yet again you blatantly misrepresent what I've posted even though it's there in black and white.

I spelled out precisely why it's fantasy and you offer no counter other than your insane opinion that it's possible. I know your English is poor, but your maths and economics must be a hell of a lot worse.

When #DavosStandard as a practical example proves that the spread of the virus can be limited, The Atheist is upset because he sees it as a threat to his herd-immunity-by-infection ideology.

And straight on to blatant lying.

I repeat, I gave you the reason it's impossible and it had nothing to do with herd immunity.

It also costs good money that should stay in the pockets of billionaires:

Thus confirming your abject ignorance about economics. Billionaires hardly pay any tax, and the money for sterilisation of the air at schools, hospitals and public facilities is paid by the government, from taxes.

The Atheist is one of the most obvious examples of the fact that business calculations, the market economy, capitalism, is the main obstacle to proper health-care interventions: Protecting people's health just isn't feasible to his line of thinking unless those people happen to be billionaires.
If they happen to be school children, precautions to protect their health are "ignorant, impossible and insane." 'Tech is there to serve the rich and make a heap of money for them. Tech shouldn't be squandered on protecting the health of ordinary people and their kids.'

It's blatantly obvious why you don't try supporting your fantasy with actual evidence, because you don't understand any part of how the economy works.

Pretty funny though, so please do go on.

I'll even give you an example to play with, because it's something I'm quite well-versed in. The approximate cost of sterilising the air at school in New Zealand is about $5 billion.

Explain where that money is going to come from, but more importantly, explain how you're going to do it in a market where there are no people to do the work.

I need a good laugh.

 

[dann]

The really good laugh is on The Atheist!
He seems to have missed that my alleged blatant misrepresentation of his posts could be checked immediately since I quoted them, which also makes his accusation that I'm blatantly lying a blatant lie.

As for the practical as well as now apparently also economical impossibility of cleaning the air at schools, I present you with nothing less than an inexpensive, but powerful solution:

An epidemic of absenteeism
During the 2022–23 school year, over a third of Colorado K-12 students were chronically absent—defined as missing 10% of the school days in a year. That’s up from one in five students before the pandemic. Students are absent from school for a myriad of reasons—bullying, transportation problems and financial hardship—and asthma stands out as the leading cause of absenteeism due to chronic illness.

Funded by Colorado’s Ryan Innovation Fund, Hernandez started testing air purifiers in Denver Public School (DPS) classrooms in 2020, in an effort to help reopen schools under better conditions during the pandemic.

“When the pandemic broke out, there were a lot of people introducing air purifiers in classrooms. But many of the purifiers weren't sized correctly, didn’t work well or were too loud. No one had systematically assessed the purifiers’ performance in actual educational settings at this scale” Hernandez said.

In 2021, Hernandez and his team installed air purifiers coupled with air quality monitors in 20 public elementary school buildings with funding from the Intel Corporation and the Carrier Company. Most of the schools are located along the I-25 and I-70 highways, and their proximity to high-traffic corridors and industrial zones increases students’ exposure to air pollution, which could worsen the effects of COVID-19. In some of these schools, more than 20% of the students have asthma.
(...)

An inexpensive, but powerful solution
Hernandez estimates that effectively reducing airborne particles in indoor air pollution with air purifiers would cost $65 per student, per classroom, per year.

“Installing a couple of air purifiers in a classroom is cheaper than a textbook, but schools are always strapped for money. Now we have data that shows these commonly available appliances, which don’t disrupt teaching, can be systematically prioritized. It’s well worth it in both the immediate and long term,” Hernandez said.

The project has a huge community and educational impact, Hernandez added. He is proud of the students and contractors who worked day and night to install the air monitors in thousands of classrooms over the past summer. Many of the young researchers working on the project are first-generation college students who come from communities disproportionately affected by air pollution and COVID-19. Studies have found that Black and Hispanic students have the highest asthma rates in the U.S.
Can air purifiers help keep kids in school? New study seeks to find out (University of Colorado, Boulder, Sep 27, 2023)

As for The Atheists claims about my "abject ignorance about economics. Billionaires hardly pay any tax, and the money for sterilisation of the air at schools, hospitals and public facilities is paid by the government, from taxes."
Here's an idea that would never occur to him because his focus is on making billionaires earn more money than they already do: "Those who did made a heap of money and those who didn't, didn't."
The very simple idea is: Make those billionaires pay for the air purifiers for each and every school and place of work!

You could also build them yourself - The Effectiveness of DIY Air Filtration Units (CDC) - but I still think that making billionaires buy them is the better solution.

(It's no secret that the very best solution would be to revolutionize society to prevent it from serving the interests of billionaires at the cost of the health and well-being of ordinary people and their children, but that is too blatantly obvious for the likes of The Atheist to grasp!)

 

[The Atheist]

The really good laugh is on The Atheist!

If you think suggesting unproven technology as the answer, you're very much mistaken.

As usual.