How do we know a pandemic's over?

Meanwhile...

I was vaccinated again yesterday. This time for Omicron (XBB1.5)...

Ended up sleeping for four hours yesterday afternoon, that suggests to me that the vaccinations are still working.

:)
 
Meanwhile...

I was vaccinated again yesterday. This time for Omicron (XBB1.5)...

Ended up sleeping for four hours yesterday afternoon, that suggests to me that the vaccinations are still working.

:)

Might be pretty common. When I got the first booster in the AM, by afternoon I was somewhat fatigued. Also slept really good that night. Felt great the next day.
 
Your San Diego link says:
COVID-19: Cases 25,164, Deaths 143, Outbreaks 219.
Influenza: Cases 3,028, Deaths 6, Outbreaks 1.
RSV: Cases 1,944, Deaths 2, Outbreaks 3.
So C19 has not only killed far more people, the CFR is also considerably higher than the flu.
When you think that the flu is "likely [to] catch up with Covid in the next few weeks," are you then talking about cases, deaths or outbreaks? Or 'all of the above'?


Two weeks later, the flu may be on the way to catching up with COVID-19 in cases per week but far from it in death toll or outbreaks, so far:
COVID-19: Cases 27,891, Deaths 160, Outbreaks 249.
Influenza: Cases 5,225, Deaths 9, Outbreaks 6.
RSV: Cases 2,768, Deaths 4, Outbreaks 4.
San Diego County Respiratory Virus Surveillance Report (San Diego County, Dec 21, 2023)


Figure 16 shows "Influenza Deaths by Age and Fiscal Year," 2019-20 till present: 173.
So not even 10% higher than COVID-19 in 2023-24 alone so far (Figure 15).
RSV deaths 2019-20 till present (Figure 17): 48.

So far, San Diego is doing considerably better than Denmark (or Sweden) this season.
It would be interesting to know why. The weather might have something to do with it. Temperatures aren't exactly Scandinavian: 10 Day Weather - San Diego, CA.
Fahrenheit 65o = Celsius 18.3o, i.e. Scandinavian summer temperatures.



Dec 28, 2023:
COVID-19: Cases 29,730, Deaths 171, Outbreaks 273.
Influenza: Cases 7,232, Deaths 12, Outbreaks 7.
RSV: Cases 3,234, Deaths 4, Outbreaks 4.
San Diego County Respiratory Virus Surveillance Report (San Diego County, Dec 28, 2023)


So more cases of flu than of C19, but still considerably more C19 deaths (28) than flu deaths (3) and also more outbreaks of C19 (24) than of flu (1). No more deaths or outbreaks of RSV since last week.

In Denmark, last week's numbers:
Antal døde fra influenza i hele sæsonen = 22
Antal døde fra RSV i hele sæsonen = 17
Det samlede antal svarer ca til hvor mange der dør af corona på 3 dage
Alle disse infektioner er luftbårne og kunne forebygges med jævnlig udluftning, luft rensning (mobile HEPA filtre) & masker
Astrid Iversen (Twitter/X, Dec 20, 2023)
Number of death from the flu this season = 22
Number of deaths from RSV this season = 17
The total number corresponds approximately to the number of coronavirus deaths in 3 days.
All of these infections are airborne and could be prevented by means of regular , air purification (mobile HEPA filters) & face masks
 
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In Denmark, last week's numbers:

Number of death from the flu this season = 22
Number of deaths from RSV this season = 17
The total number corresponds approximately to the number of coronavirus deaths in 3 days.
Well there you go, Covid-19 is only killing as many in 3 days as a month of the flu. Obviously the pandemic is over!
 
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The flu is actually since week 40, i.e. early October.
It appears to be the same picture everywhere. There may occasionally be more flu cases than C19 cases, but C19 is much more lethal, tends to have more (and more serious) sequelae, and unlike the flu it's not seasonal.

Notice this about vaccine protection:
New data for the "updated" (XBB.1.5) booster
~60% protection from hospitalization and ED visits vs JN.1 and recent circulating variants
http://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2023.12.24.23300512
@KPSCalResearch

But vaccination w/ prior versions (& waned immunity) offered no protection vs hospitalization (Figure)
EricTopol (Twitter/X, Dec 29, 2023)
 
Meanwhile, I got covid again!

Had all my vaccinations and boosters, but still should have known better. A few years I booked premium tickets for the Boxing Day cricket in Melbourne. And got Omicrom. No great wonder as the room was crowded and not ventilated. So I did the same thing again with the same result.

So I’m not immune, and I doubt any of us are.

The good news is that a bit of a fever last night, but feel okay now. No New Year celebration, and I have to keep careful not to go near the grand children.
 
Pandemic is a social construct. Ultimately it's over when society says it's over. At that point, running around telling people they're still pandemic'd just makes you sound like a crackpot. Like those people who swung the opposite direction when the pandemic was first declared.
 
Meanwhile, I got covid again!

Had all my vaccinations and boosters, but still should have known better. A few years I booked premium tickets for the Boxing Day cricket in Melbourne. And got Omicrom. No great wonder as the room was crowded and not ventilated. So I did the same thing again with the same result.

So I’m not immune, and I doubt any of us are.

The good news is that a bit of a fever last night, but feel okay now. No New Year celebration, and I have to keep careful not to go near the grand children.


I wish you a speedy recovery. In Australia, you will have been boosted with the XBB.1.5 version of the vaccines if it happened since late November, so you should have some vaccine-induced immunity.
New Covid-19 vaccines available to target current variants (Australian Minister for Health and Aged Care, Nov 20, 2023)
 
I wish you a speedy recovery. In Australia, you will have been boosted with the XBB.1.5 version of the vaccines if it happened since late November, so you should have some vaccine-induced immunity.
New Covid-19 vaccines available to target current variants (Australian Minister for Health and Aged Care, Nov 20, 2023)

Thanks for your thoughts.

My last booster was early last year. A doctor friend told me that I would likely have little, if any, immunity from the vaccine. Any immunity I currently have would be due to the three or four times I caught covid. Like many I think I had simply become complacent. I’ll call my doctor in a couple of weeks.
 
90% of Mexico is complacent for the last year. The lifting of mask requirements in most places ended the pandemic here.
Occasionally the government has a booster program for older folks but it's not like anyone even talks about it.
The last one was three months ago, none of my once concerned friends seemed to worried.
 
Thanks for your thoughts.

My last booster was early last year. A doctor friend told me that I would likely have little, if any, immunity from the vaccine. Any immunity I currently have would be due to the three or four times I caught covid. Like many I think I had simply become complacent. I’ll call my doctor in a couple of weeks.

My doctor and I had been crowing about our charmed lives that kept us covid free for all this time...

... then he caught it from a patient.

Oh well, it was a good run.

Meanwhile, I still haven't tested positive, or had any symptoms, so baring the super-secrit variety that doesn't cause any breathing issues for an asthmatic, I'm still living that charmed life.

Not being exposed to children is probably the biggest factor.

:)

My latest vaccine was the XBB1.5 (according to what's now on my vaccination certificate).

That whole method of managing vaccinations seems to have improved due to covid.

My recent vaccinations are all showing up, including six covid 19 vaccines, and there's a note showing that I'm due the Herpes Zoster vaccine in 2027 (when I turn 65).

Prior to 2020, my vaccine statement was always empty, despite being up to date on influenza and tetanus...

So someone has improved the paperwork to say the least.
 
The lifting of mask requirements in most places ended the pandemic here.


No, it didn't: The WHO has not declared the Covid-19 pandemic over (Full Fact, May 12, 2023)

Long #COVID19 and where we are. I’m worried.
We are entering the 5th year of the pandemic and we are certainly in a different phase. This phase is marked by an evolving virus (with the XBB and BA.2 sublineages circulating and JN.1 becoming dominant).
Maria Van Kerkhove, Dec 30, 2023
JN.1 continues to rise in detection, but what matters to you is that #COVID19 is circulating in ALL countries. You CAN protect yourself from infection and severe disease. Mask, ventilate, test, treat, vaccinate: boost every 6-12 months depending on your risk group. @WHO
Maria Van Kerkhove, Infectious Disease Epidemiologist; COVID-19 Technical Lead, Director ai Epidemic & Pandemic Preparedness & Prevention, WHO (Twitter/X, Dec 31, 2023)

Maria DeJoseph Van Kerkhove (born February 20, 1977) is an American infectious disease epidemiologist. With a background in high-threat pathogens, Van Kerkhove specializes in emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases and is based in the Health Emergencies Program at the World Health Organization (WHO). She is the technical lead of COVID-19 response and the head of emerging diseases and zoonosis unit at WHO.
Maria Van Kerkhove (Wikipedia)
 
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My recent vaccinations are all showing up, including six covid 19 vaccines, and there's a note showing that I'm due the Herpes Zoster vaccine in 2027 (when I turn 65).


I got the Shingrix jab last month. Expensive: US$300. And that was just for the first one of two.

So someone has improved the paperwork to say the least.


In Denmark, too. (But it won't have the jab of Soberana Plus I got in Cuba last year. The system would probably break down if I told my doctor and she tried to register it.)
 
I got the Shingrix jab last month. Expensive: US$300. And that was just for the first one of two.
I was invited by my surgery for a shingles vaccination last month (I turned 70 in August). One off jab, no 2nd jab/annual boosters required. Cost me nothing.
 
Guide to the Newspeak of the Pandemic

But four years is a long time to hone the art of “nothing to see here” propaganda. And the pandemic’s never-ending new waves of viral variants have had a repetitive cadence to them- a predictable sequence of rises in case counts (but low hospitalizations), followed by rises in hospitalizations (but low levels of death), followed by rises in deaths (but falling case counts). That repetitive quality has allowed for a certain eco-friendly reusability when it comes to propaganda messages. Every six months or so, some part of the news cycle gets devoted to the idea that we are finally out of this, that cases are lower than ever before and it’s milder than ever before. Experts come out of the woodwork to confidently predict (again) that this means that we have herd immunity now, or hybrid immunity, or that it’s endemic (thank goodness!), or maybe all three. Of course, this has been going on from the beginning of the pandemic, but no one seems to notice.

In this post, we will explore some of the tools and tricks of the sorry public relations exercise that passes for public health these days. It helps to know what they are- once you start seeing them, you can’t stop!
How to hide a pandemic (Down the Memory Hole, Substack, Dec 24, 2023)


The headlines:

1. Green-mapping
If you can redefine a term enough times, you can make it say anything you want!
2. Calm-mongering
The only thing we have to fear during an ongoing pandemic is fear itself, apparently.
3. DARVO
Forced infection is freedom of choice, and freedom from disease is oppression.
4. Myth-making
Why not manifest our way to a better reality, then?
5. False framing
You’re either with the virus or you’re against us!
6. Othering
“It’s a pandemic of the ______”.
7. Data Manipulation
Slow the testing down, please!
 
The headlines:

1. Green-mapping
If you can redefine a term enough times, you can make it say anything you want!
2. Calm-mongering
The only thing we have to fear during an ongoing pandemic is fear itself, apparently.
3. DARVO
Forced infection is freedom of choice, and freedom from disease is oppression.
4. Myth-making
Why not manifest our way to a better reality, then?
5. False framing
You’re either with the virus or you’re against us!
6. Othering
“It’s a pandemic of the ______”.
7. Data Manipulation
Slow the testing down, please!
This is all true. However in focusing on 'public health authorities, particularly the CDC' and ignoring other factors it paints a rather distorted picture that implies they are almost solely responsible for the mess - when that is not true at all. Then the article goes off the deep end comparing the CDC to Nazi Germany. This gives readers the impression that if only we could purge the CDC of Nazis people would get the right message and everything would be sweet. But this is BS. The truth is that we (the general public as a whole) are the root cause of its failure.

The CDC would have done a much better job if they were allowed to, but they were severely hampered by political interference. But even that didn't exist in a vacuum. Hillary Clinton said she would have done a much better job of handling the pandemic than Trump, who she accurately described as a 'vindictive score-settler'. Trump's vindictiveness certainly was a major factor. He gutted Obama's pandemic preparedness systems and installed sycophants who were incompetent or even antagonistic towards their roles. Then he downplayed the virus and prayed it would just disappear, because he feared that 'panicking' would tank the economy and make him look bad. So is it all Trump's fault? No, it's the fault of all those who voted for a man totally unsuited to the role of President.

Clinton certainly would have done a lot better. For starters she would have continued the pandemic preparedness program and listened to what the non-partisan health authorities told her should be done. And she would have done the right thing regardless of the political fallout. This might have saved close to a million US lives.

But apart from that, would things be much different today if Hillary was president in 2020? I doubt it. Imagine she gets lucky and manages to contain the virus with closed borders, strict lockdowns and quarantines (as some other countries did). The CDC gets the right messaging out so people are well informed and understand why these 'draconian' measures were needed. 6 months later the US is Covid-free and the economy is booming. Awesome, right?

But we are forgetting that 40% of the population hate her guts and would deliberately do the opposite of what any Democrat asks of them anyway. Throw in a big dollop of selfish individualism and the chances of getting the whole country doing the right thing is nil. That means the virus will not be eliminated, only (hopefully) suppressed long enough to get most of the population vaccinated. That's when we hit the next problem - half of them won't.

Eventually the people get tired of Covid restrictions and ignore the advice given out by the CDC. Most measures have already become impossible to enforce anyway due to legal challenges, so there's no point trying to push them. The authorities just hope they can cajole enough people to get booster shots that the virus can be reasonably well contained. 3 years later the public have decided the pandemic's over and treat it like any other disease - not even bothering to test for it when it they come down with something. Infections continue to come in waves as new variants appear, but nobody even looks at the numbers.

Sound familiar?

In New Zealand we were lucky enough to have a leader who was well liked and had steered us through previous incidents with swift action and compassion, so the public was primed to do the right thing when asked. Nevertheless even here it didn't take long for our patience to wear thin. We got the first bit right, but it was impossible to keep it up. Our government recognized that and took the brakes off as soon they could 'safely' do so.

China went even further, but even they couldn't control their people. At one point they resorted to quarantining entire apartment blocks and welding the doors shut on factories to stop people from spreading the virus. It didn't work. They had been virus free for years and still got hit badly.

The problem with a highly infectious disease is that even a tiny percentage of the population misbehaving is enough to thwart even the most draconian measures. In many countries the government barely has most of the population on its side on a good day, let alone when faced with an 'inconvenient' pandemic. Politicians are loath to take bold action that would cause huge backlash - which is the way we like it, because there's nothing worse than a dictatorial government forcing me to do something I don't want to do.

When 'health authorities' tell me I have to change my behavior I know they are just a bunch of Nazis on a power trip. Deadly virus? Yeah right. This isn't Hollywood and I'm not going to panic over them telling me the sky is falling! Professor x on Twitter says this virus is no worse than the flu (nobody ever died of that, right?) and taking horse medicine will cure it. Also masks don't work except for stopping me from spreading it to others which I don't care about, and I'm too tough to get it so masks are useless! They want to inject nasty stuff into my body too for no good reason. Not that I'm a sissy who's afraid of needles mind you, it's just the principle of it honest... As soon as 10% of the population have had it we will have 'heard immunity' (or something like that) anyway, so why panic?
 
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I gotta say, I much prefer your Imaginary Hillary to the real one! I might even recommend that people vote for Imaginary Hillary! :)

Throughout your long post, you get lost in your own made-up scenarios, and you get the article wrong: It doesn't, as you allege, go "off the deep end comparing the CDC to Nazi Germany."
However, it does present a comparison with Goebbels (and Baghdad Bob and 1984, the novel) in as far as the pandemic propaganda is concerned:

We’re four years into this thing, and if you sometimes wake up feeling that the world has plunged into some dystopian hellscape out of the novel Nineteen Eighty-Four, you’re not alone. The Public Health (sorry, Public Relations) strategy for the current pandemic is in full-blown propaganda mode at present, leaning hard into the teachings of Joseph Goebbels: “If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it”. Giving names to the propaganda techniques that have been used to lull us all into a sense of false security robs them of their power a little bit.

In the end, all propaganda is subject to reality. As we learned from the Parable of Baghdad Bob, the ability of false messaging to warp public perception can only go so far. To return to Goebbels, that quote has a second part to it: “The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people from the political, [and/or] economic… consequences of the lie.” It’s the second half of that quote that should give us all hope as we continue to hang in there!
How to hide a pandemic (Down the Memory Hole, Substack, Dec 24, 2023)



As for New Zealand, I have already pointed out to you that you have been had by official NZ misinformation about the vaccines. People didn't make you think that you were given the updated vaccines. Your public health authorities did! You even (I was about to write retweeted, but ...) posted a long quotation from this site: https://covid19[/url].govt.nz/covid-19-vaccines/covid-19-vaccine-boosters/, thus distributing outdated (and thus mis)information! And I pointed it out to you!

Don't get me wrong! I am fully aware that you, unlike some other people here, did so inadvertently. You did so because you thought that the information was solid. You thought that the vaccine was up to date even when it wasn't.

However, I don't think that the NZ health authorities are unaware that the vaccine being distributed in NZ at this point offers very little protection against the variants circulating in 2022 - and may even to some extent be counterproductive:
Original antigenic sin, also known as antigenic imprinting, the Hoskins effect, immunological imprinting, or primary addiction is the propensity of the immune system to preferentially use immunological memory based on a previous infection when a second slightly different version of that foreign pathogen (e.g. a virus or bacterium) is encountered. This leaves the immune system "trapped" by the first response it has made to each antigen, and unable to mount potentially more effective responses during subsequent infections.
Original antigenic sin (Wikipedia)


You can choose to believe that the NZ health authorities just don't know what they're doing. Or you can acknowledge that they're providing New Zealanders with disinformation. They should know better. That you and other ordinary New Zealanders buy into this crap isn't hard to understand: You expect them to provide you with the truth. You have reason to expect them to do so. And it's a rude awakening, having to acknowledge that you can no longer trust them.
It's also hard work to find out about this. You have to spend an inordinate amount of time to find out about these things.

It is easier to notice this for those of us who saw and recognized this manipulation of the media and the population taking place at the early stage of the pandemic in Sweden when Tegnell and SVT.se used similar strategies of disinformation to mislead the Swedish population.

For the first two years, pandemic information in Denmark was very similar to pandemic information in New Zealand: mainly fact-based, including honest accounts about what was known and what was so far just assumed. And it has therefore also been very difficult for people to notice the switch in information strategy that took place in the winter of 2021-22 when calm-mongering started.

It's probably easier to see for Americans who were used to having to distinguish between Trumpian disinformation and the (at that time still) factual information from the CDC. But it requires some effort and basic understanding of things to be able to see through what's happening when the CDC strategy shifts, as explained in the article:
1. Green-mapping
If you can redefine a term enough times, you can make it say anything you want!

The handling of the COVID-19 pandemic by public health authorities, particularly the CDC, and its portrayal in the media, have often been marked by an underplaying of the virus's true risks. A prime example is the CDC's February 2022 revision of its COVID-19 community levels map. The original map, based on transmission levels was almost uniformly red at the time- a well-timed switch to new criteria (based, in part on hospital bed availability) suddenly switched the entire country to a soothing shade of teal green. This visual and metric shift created an illusion of reduced transmission risk, leading to public complacency and a relaxation of compliance with measures.

The alchemy that the CDC practiced with its infamous green map is just one example of a tactic that has been used repeatedly in pandemic communication. Quietly redefining terms in day-to-day conversation by switching the metric that it is being used to describe. “Vaccine efficacy” is another term that got ‘green-mapped’ early on- the word went from meaning “protection against infection” to “protection against severe outcomes” to, finally, “protection against death”. “Learning to live with the virus” underwent a quiet linguistic shift, as did “herd immunity”.

‘Green mapping’ is a particularly pernicious “scicomms” technique, because it undercuts our shared understanding of reality, and lends itself to an Orwellian we-have-always-been-at-war-with-Eastasia retconning of reality.
How to hide a pandemic (Down the Memory Hole, Substack, Dec 24, 2023)


It's not that ordinary people aren't in on this to some extent. As the Orwell link in the quotation says: "Orwell's point in 1984 was that it's more than just government Thought Police. The people themselves participate, willfully, in "double think"."

But just like 'some animals are more equal than others', some segments of the population are also more in on this than others. In Denmark, the Brownstone-adjacent CEPOS think tank has helped drive the spread of disinformation about the pandemic. Most ordinary people just buy into the propaganda because they're uncomfortable with the idea that the public health authorities are deliberately asking them to behave in ways that harm their lives an health. It doesn't even occur to most of them.

Like I said above, it's a rude awakening. And some people prefer to dream.
 
Open your eyes to the real world around you and it's obvious that the people have gone back to regular life before the CV thing.
Watch yt videos, near nobody is masking. No gel stations outside stores, no shoe cleaning mats.

Whether or not the CDC said something or whatever each of us likes this is the reality.
To each their own on what measures are required but gnashing your teeth over the stupidity of others, at least in a personal opinion about something, isn't going to change anything.

By all means get the jabs, research and decide which is most probable or proven to be effective but it's far from realistic to expect anyone else is required to follow your example.

Labeling others a minimalist or denier or whatever isn't going to change anything either. Most don't care what others think of them. There isn't enough time in life to please or appease others and still get your own tasks done.
 

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