How do we know a pandemic's over?

[Trausti]

I walked past the movie theater yesterday and saw there was one screening that I would like to see. I would to like go with friends, but that would probably mean a crowded theater and none us are comfortable with that. Maybe next year.

Damn. Can't imagine living like that. Exercise. Watch your diet. Take vitamin D. You'll be fine.

 

[Chanakya]

Damn. Can't imagine living like that. Exercise. Watch your diet. Take vitamin D. You'll be fine.

Can't make out if this is sarcasm, or literally meant.


"Can't imagine not smoking, not copulating indiscriminately, not drinking to excess, not eating indiscriminately, not questioning if that outing in public is something we really need to do, watching out to make sure we don't utter racist sexist slurs, damn that's no way to live." Like that.

If meant that way, then I agree! But probably aimed wrong, because Roger Ramjets wasn't saying anything totally weird, a small disagreement of degree rather than of kind, I'd say.


But if you meant that literally, then I disagree. Sure, general healthy living's cool, but if there's specific risks, then those must be addressed on their own terms. General platitudes, while not completely irrelevant, go only so far.

 

[dann]

Body of work. I'm surprised hydroxychloroquine isn't mentioned in addition to diet, exercise and vitamin D.

 

[dann]

Now that we moved from isolation to relying on vaccinations to keep the virus at bay, we have to return to some kind of 'normal' and let it rip. Unfortunately that means more people will die, but it's now down to an acceptable risk for most of us.

Some kind 'normal' would be the #DavosStandard for everybody, which would be the opposite of letting it rip. And it would also mean that those of us who are not the most of us might be able to venture into a cinema, a concert or other public venues without having to fear for their health and life.

I walked past the movie theater yesterday and saw there was one screening that I would like to see. I would to like go with friends, but that would probably mean a crowded theater and none us are comfortable with that. Maybe next year.

I consider going to watch the two Barbenheimer movies, but I'll probably buy my tickets online for a show in a fairly big movie theatre with few tickets sold. And I'll wear a face mask. That's as close as one can get to the #DavosStandard without being a Davos billionaire.

 

[dann]

Still not over. And it may be on the rise again according to WHO.

 

[Chanakya]

Still not over. And it may be on the rise again according to WHO.

Thanks for posting that!

I no longer follow Covid news, like I used to. Unless that is it jumps out at one, which it no longer does. This forum is the one place where I still continue to check these two threads --- and that other thread, the main Covid thread, had fallen off of my Subscriptions list, with a new volume of that ongoing discussions in place now, that I never noticed. Have put that new thread in my Subscriptions list now.

 

[Roger Ramjets]

99.999% of the population does not give a toss about the disease any more.

Not quite 99.999%, but pretty close.

 

[Puppycow]

Haven't looked at the stats in months, but it does appear to be mostly over:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

At the peak of the pandemic there were over 10,000 deaths per day, compared to around 200/day over the last month or two. I have been vaccinated 4 times and don't plan to get any more. I have neither tested positive nor even felt like I was ill since then. The Japanese government plans to stop offering free vaccines next year.

Here's an interesting story about how free Covid testing was used to steal from the government:

Fraudulent COVID testing scheme in Japan using staff saliva pulled in $140,000 per day

TOKYO -- At the height of the coronavirus pandemic, when state-funded free testing sites were popping up all over Japan, one such center in Kanagawa Prefecture concocted a scheme to defraud the government out of as much as 20 million yen (approx. $140,000) a day in subsidies. Their method: Have staff use their own saliva for the tests.
. . .

The ring filed subsidy claims under the name of a testing site set up by the Kanagawa company, asking that the Kanagawa Prefectural Government or the Tokyo Metropolitan Government pay 8,500 yen (about $58) in testing fees and 3,000 yen (roughly $20) in expenses for a total of 11,500 yen (approx. $78) per PCR test -- the maximum subsidy amount. The testing in fact cost 2,000 yen (about $14) each plus some 150 yen (about $1) per saliva container.

Records show that the subsidies were paid to the Tokyo company, which cleared around 9,350 yen (about $63) in profit per test after expenses.

It cost them only 2,150 yen per test to run these unnecessary fake tests, but they billed the government 11,500 yen per test.

 

[Chanakya]

Still not over. And it may be on the rise again according to WHO.

Finally read that thread, that you’d linked to and I’d bookmarked the other day. (Yeah, short enough thread, but only got around to actually reading it just now.)

Agreed, Covid is “still not over.”



Heh, it was it was interesting to see the, the passions in that thread, with completely opposing viewpoints about whether we still need to bother with precautions, and each side coming down hard on the other.

Me, I think either choice is cool, at this time, and it's a personal thing, really. ...Those times, when we'd (very rightly) look on with horror at those cross-eyed morons that kept insisting that masks weren't needed, that vaccines are neither useful nor safe, the deliberate parties to spread infection, we'd see them as completely demented, and a danger both to themselves and to the rest of us. Those times are clearly past. But nor are we quite there, IMV, where someone still taking precautions should be looked on as some kind of nutjob. ...I'd say it's a personal thing, at this point, like I said. (And of course, for the personal thing to be based on facts and reason, one would need to keep on with what's happening on the Covid front. Not many do that nowadays, I guess.)

 

[Chanakya]

...

...

Interesting and informative posts both, snipped for brevity. ...What that got me wondering about, is ongoing vaccinations. Should we keep getting these vaccines on an ongoing basis, maybe once a year? ...That is, for the old and those with "co-morbidities", sure, they should, that's kind of a no-brainer, but I mean the rest of us?


eta: Although, I guess if one's to be consistent, then those who do believe that some reasonable precautions still make sense, should also keep up with vaccine doses.

 

[Roger Ramjets]

Should we keep getting these vaccines on an ongoing basis, maybe once a year? ...That is, for the old and those with "co-morbidities", sure, they should, that's kind of a no-brainer, but I mean the rest of us?

Of course you should. New variants are coming out all the time, and cases are on the rise. Even if you are immune to older variants you may still be vulnerable to new ones.

Plenty of young, fit, healthy people were laid low by covid, and some even died from it. Many are suffering from 'long covid' too - even those who don't realize it. If you had a simple, safe, cheap way to avoid that, why wouldn't you take it?

So it's a 'no-brainer' for everyone.

And not just Covid. I get the flu vaccine every year too, and any other one on offer. You may say that's a no-brainer for me because I'm old (I am 65), but I remember getting the flu in my 20's and it was no joke. I'd take the slight inconvenience of getting vaccinated over that no matter how old I was.

 

[Roger Ramjets]

Me, I think either choice is cool, at this time, and it's a personal thing, really. ...Those times, when we'd (very rightly) look on with horror at those cross-eyed morons that kept insisting that masks weren't needed, that vaccines are neither useful nor safe, the deliberate parties to spread infection, we'd see them as completely demented, and a danger both to themselves and to the rest of us. Those times are clearly past.

Are they? Some of the demented are no longer a threat because they are dead, but the rest are still a threat. The only difference now is that we do have vaccines which offer reasonable protection - at least for current variants.

But vaccines are not perfect. The more people don't take them, don't test and self-isolate, and don't wear masks if potentially infected, the harder it will be to keep the virus at bay. These morons are preventing us from stamping it out, increasing the risk of a variant evolving that is much more deadly and that we have no protection against. Actually there are so many morons out there now that another pandemic is pretty much guaranteed. The only good thing is that the authorities will (hopefully) treat the next one more seriously.

 

[Roger Ramjets]

Here's an interesting story about how free Covid testing was used to steal from the government:

Fraudulent COVID testing scheme in Japan using staff saliva pulled in $140,000 per day

It cost them only 2,150 yen per test to run these unnecessary fake tests, but they billed the government 11,500 yen per test.

That's not interesting, it's just sad. But not unexpected. It's the nature of capitalism that people will find ways - legal or illegal - to enrich themselves at the expense of others. Why should a pandemic be any different?

 

[dann]

Interesting and informative posts both, snipped for brevity. ...What that got me wondering about, is ongoing vaccinations. Should we keep getting these vaccines on an ongoing basis, maybe once a year? ...That is, for the old and those with "co-morbidities", sure, they should, that's kind of a no-brainer, but I mean the rest of us?


eta: Although, I guess if one's to be consistent, then those who do believe that some reasonable precautions still make sense, should also keep up with vaccine doses.

Very much unlike the flu, SARS-CoV-2 isn't really seasonal:

Virtually all Americans should get an updated coronavirus shot, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommended Tuesday, with the vaccines expected to become available within 48 hours — as the respiratory illness season looms.
Mandy Cohen, director of the CDC, advised that anyone 6 months and older should get at least one dose of an updated shot. Her broad recommendation came after the agency’s expert advisers voted for a universal approach to seasonal coronavirus vaccination. The shots are intended to bolster defenses as the nation heads into the fall and winter virus season, when influenza and RSV are also primed to be on the rise.
CDC recommends updated covid shots, paving the way for vaccine this week (Washington Post, Sep 12, 2023)

The antivaxxers are already busy online!

Three countries that vaccinate everybody, including young children, and Denmark where we didn't vaccinate young children, and antivaxxer USA:
Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 deaths per million people USA, Denmark, Cuba, Japan, Singapore (Our World in Data)

Notice that many countries have stopped reporting. Of the five countries, I think that Cuba and Denmark are the only ones that still do. (Yes, Cuba hasn't had any COVID-19 deaths since August, 2022.)
Notice also the population densities of Singapore and the USA:
Singapore 8,592 per km² (22,254 per mi²);
USA: 37 per km² (96 per mi²).

And as for "the rest of us": If people don't want their children to get diabetes or MIS-C, they should get them boosted. If they themselves also don't want to get diabetes, they should get a booster shot, too. SARS-CoV-2 is not the common cold, and maybe it never will be. Verified: COVID-19 Infection Increases Diabetes Risk Cedars-Sinai, Feb 14, 2023)
The minimizers don't know what they are talking about. And they don't want to know.

 

[dann]

Very bad news

Haven't looked at the stats in months, but it does appear to be mostly over: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

At the peak of the pandemic there were over 10,000 deaths per day, compared to around 200/day over the last month or two. I have been vaccinated 4 times and don't plan to get any more. I have neither tested positive nor even felt like I was ill since then. The Japanese government plans to stop offering free vaccines next year.

The reason why it appears to be mostly over and why you now see "around 200/day over the last month or two" is that most countries have stopped reporting!!!
See my link to Our World in Data in my post above!
If you are not a mimizer yourself, make sure you don't get fooled by them and don't spread their iies! It's nowhere near over. It's on the rise with new variants.

As for Japan, see angrysoba's latest post.

Here's an interesting story about how free Covid testing was used to steal from the government:

Fraudulent COVID testing scheme in Japan using staff saliva pulled in $140,000 per day

It cost them only 2,150 yen per test to run these unnecessary fake tests, but they billed the government 11,500 yen per test.

A similar thing happened in Sweden, only worse:
People paid to be able to certify that they didn't have COVID-19 (for entry into other countries), and they issued certificates without ever examining the samples.
Ingenious way to spread Swedish 'herd immunity by infection' to the world.

 

[dann]

99.999% of the population does not give a toss about the disease any more.

Not quite 99.999%, but pretty close.

You should never believe The Atheist's numbers!
They are entirely imaginary.

 

[Puppycow]

That's not interesting, it's just sad. But not unexpected. It's the nature of capitalism that people will find ways - legal or illegal - to enrich themselves at the expense of others. Why should a pandemic be any different?

It should be of interest to the police and to taxpayers here in Japan, of which I am one. It took a newspaper to uncover the story, apparently. The government had been none the wiser.

Maybe some sort of auditing system could have found this earlier. The fake tests were given to people who didn't exist. The people who spit into the test tube existed, of course, but they didn't use their own names or other details for the accompanying paperwork. They were fictitious identities. Maybe if the government had actually checked some of them sampled at random, they could have found that some of the people aren't real. Given that we should have expected something like this, as you say.

 

[dann]

Three countries that vaccinate everybody, including young children, and Denmark where we didn't vaccinate young children, and antivaxxer USA:
Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 deaths per million people USA, Denmark, Cuba, Japan, Singapore (Our World in Data)

I forgot to mention that Denmark won't be boosting 'children' younger than 65 this fall. At least, that's what the health authorities have been saying so far. I also don't know if the Danish health authorities pay any attention to CDC announcements. A couple of the leading Danish virologists and epidemiologists seem to be listening more to the Brownstone Insitute. One of them, Christine Stabell Benn, has become a member of Florida's Public Health Integrity Committee, which doesn't bode well.
I don't know how libertarian health-care professionals managed to get in charge of Denmark's pandemic response.

 

[dann]

I'm surprised to see that New Zealand covers the pandemic news much the same way media everywhere else does:

Covid infections are putting people at higher risk of diabetes, strokes, heart disease and other long-term illnesses - but experts warn it may be decades before the full impact is known.
(...)
Dr Brooks said re-infections could also trigger long Covid, as her colleagues overseas were reporting.
"People are turning up at long Covid clinics and saying: 'No one told me that my fourth or fifth infection could cause this'.
"Covid is not done with us. We might be done with it, and our pandemic emergency response may be over, but the pandemic nature of this virus is certainly not over.
"And immunologically is where we are still sinking our teeth in and saying there's so much more we need to know."
Dr Brooks hoped people would adopt "a new normal" and continue to use masks in crowded situations and "avoid breathing in each other's viruses".
"Yes we're bored of Covid and everyone is over it, but it's still there," Dr Brooks said.
"It needs to be part of the norm, because ignoring it doesn't make it go away."
Covid may have permanently damaged people's immunity (1news.co.nz, Sep 13, 2023)

It is also surprising that people in NZ can have "fourth or fifth infection" already.
This was news in 2021: Ed Sheeran tests positive for Covid-19 (BBC, Oct 24, 2021)

This isn't news in 2023:

(Don’t bother trying to get his take on Clapton’s anti-vax turn, by the way: “I love Eric. I don’t want to say anything bad about him,” says Sheeran, who started playing guitar after seeing a “Layla” performance on TV. He is, himself, vaccinated, but has managed to contract Covid at least seven times, thanks to constant travel and the kids.)
Ed Sheeran Confesses: Tears, Trauma, and Those Bad Habits (RollingStone, Mar 21, 2023)

Seven times in 18 months! I would begin to worry what was wrong with me if I had the common cold 2-3 times in 18 months. I hope for his sake that he's exaggerating.

 

[Chanakya]

Roger Ramjets, dann, I guess I agree, about the (ongoing) vaccines.

What I was wondering is, whether now after all this time, and after having already gotten a boost via the vaccines we've all already taken in, and add to that that over these many months we may well have actually built up sizeable "herd immunity" --- back then a fiction, but now maybe not so --- so that, while in general vaccines are not a bad idea, but whether one really needs to, for the Corona virus specifically, and more than for all of the other things going around. ...And like I said, I did realize how internally inconsistent that doubt of mine turns out to be, given that in terms of masking and distancing I continue to take care when I can. It's inconsistent to abide by the one but not the other: if one is to doubt the necessity of ongoing vaccines, then it makes sense to also doubt the necessity of these precautions; and inasmuch as one prefers to take these precautions when possible, it makes sense to avail of the vaccines as well, specifically for the Corona virus I mean to say.

Haven't really given this thing much thought in recent days/weeks/months. This last exchange has clarified that thought in my mind, for which thanks!