How do we know a pandemic's over?

[Rolfe]

Lucky science gives us vaccines, so we don't need to wait 30 generations.

If you were reading the covid thread you'd have seen this: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(23)00007-5/fulltext

Vaccines confer protection, they don't contribute to evolving resistance at a genetic level. I was trying to point out how bloody stupid the premise that humanity would evolve to be resistant to covid in a reasonable time period (or probably ever at all) actually is.

 

[Puppycow]

The WHO considered whether it was time to declare the pandemic over, but decided against it.

WHO keeps COVID emergency in place as deaths rise globally

The World Health Organization decided on Monday against declaring an end to the COVID-19 pandemic emergency, as deaths have started rising again since China dismantled its strict "zero-COVID" policy in December.

WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus determined that the ongoing pandemic "continues to constitute a public health emergency of international concern," in line with the recommendations of a panel of health experts, the organization said in a statement.

Apparently deaths are in fact on the rise again (even excluding China).

 

[Chanakya]

The WHO considered whether it was time to declare the pandemic over, but decided against it.

WHO keeps COVID emergency in place as deaths rise globally



Apparently deaths are in fact on the rise again (even excluding China).

That's interesting.

Thanks to everyone posting here! Your substantial posts help summarize in one place current developments specifically about the thread topic.

Afraid the burnout thing has got to me as well. I've given up looking up the conflicting reports all over, now that the urgency has eased off somewhat, where earlier I'd try to fully keep abreast of all of what's happening. This thread is the one place I still regularly look up for pandemic related developments ---- regularly, as opposed to random things happening to catch my eye.

But I continue to do the whole masks and distancing and sanitizing thing, regardless of what others around me are doing. And I'll continue to do that, until the thing's officially been relegated to the past tense. I'm damned if I give in to Covid basis other people's stupidity, and the peer pressure thing.

 

[mgidm86]

About FFP3:

https://phw.nhs.wales/topics/latest...formation-for-health-and-social-care/faq-003/

Just FYI if it isn't fit properly it won't really help much. My SIL is a nurse and she told me how they have to test N95s (she was using those at the time I think) to make sure they are fit properly.

I'm no expert. I don't go into theaters or bars or anywhere I don't have to, but I never liked crowds anyways. Now, much less.

 

[dann]

And much like with full-face snorkel masks, a beard (or even stubble) ruins the effect.
But I assume that your sister doesn't have that problem ...

 

[dann]

March 25, 2022:

I posted this in the science thread yesterday.

...'Flu deaths here are ~500 a year, and omicron's going to be much lower than that. ...

Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 deaths, New Zealand, March 25 to Dec 27:
Mar 25, 2022: 273
Dec 27, 2022: 2,331

Follow up:
Dec 27, 2022: 2,331
Feb 6, 2023: 2,502
So in 41 days, 171 deaths, i.e. the death toll is still considerably higher than "~500 a year" even though Omicron was supposed "to be much lower than that."
And in New Zealand, autumn is coming ...

 

[Rolfe]

About FFP3:

https://phw.nhs.wales/topics/latest...formation-for-health-and-social-care/faq-003/

Just FYI if it isn't fit properly it won't really help much. My SIL is a nurse and she told me how they have to test N95s (she was using those at the time I think) to make sure they are fit properly.

I'm no expert. I don't go into theaters or bars or anywhere I don't have to, but I never liked crowds anyways. Now, much less.

That's not true though. Even an FFP3 that doesn't fit perfectly is immeasurably better than nothing at all, and still very much better than a cloth or paper mask.

I had to go through the whole face-fit rigmarole myself with the FFP3 masks at work. This is because to get maximum protection you need to know how to fit it properly, also the testing proves that it is possible to get a perfect fit of that particular mask type to your face. (It was envisaged at work that I might have to work with my face very close to carcasses of birds that might have died from bird flu.)

Nevertheless it's not rocket science. Most masks will fit most people, and if you just follow the instructions you have a good chance of getting a reasonable fit and a reasonable seal. Tighten the head straps as tight as is comfortable, and mould the edges of the mask to your face as best you can, especially round the bridge of the nose, where there is an aluminium strip to make this easier. Observe that the mask huffs in and out when you breathe, that you don't feel streams of air passing between the sides of the mask and your face, realise that your glasses are not steaming up, job done.

There's a huge myth going around, propagated by people who are aware of the face-fit testing but don't really understand it, to the effect that the masks are useless if you haven't had that test. Nonsense. If you haven't had the test you still have a perfectly good chance of getting a seal if you just follow the instructions sensibly, and even if the seal isn't 100% perfect it's still massively better than nothing at all.

ETA: Dann is right about beards, and in fact a neighbour of mine who is in the police was slightly miffed that he had to shave his beard to pass a face-fit test. However, even there, fitting the mask as best you can despite the beard is again massively better than nothing.

 

[dann]

That's not true though. Even an FFP3 that doesn't fit perfectly is immeasurably better than nothing at all, and still very much better than a cloth or paper mask.
(...)
ETA: Dann is right about beards, and in fact a neighbour of mine who is in the police was slightly miffed that he had to shave his beard to pass a face-fit test. However, even there, fitting the mask as best you can despite the beard is again massively better than nothing.

Even cloth and paper masks are better than nothing. Also when worn under the nose. It would be stupid to do so and this is not an argument for doing it, but even cloth and paper masks worn under the nose will at least limit the amount of droplets when talking and coughing. I assume that this is the reason why paper masks are called surgical masks and used by hospital personnel when performing surgery.*

ETA: *"although not all face masks are regulated as surgical masks."
N95 Respirators, Surgical Masks, Face Masks, and Barrier Face Coverings (FDA)

 

[Rolfe]

Sure, something is always better than nothing. But since covid is mainly spread by aerosol, a mask that has big gaps round the side is not going to be good protection. Neither is one that doesn't filter inspired air sufficiently. A mask over the mouth only might make an infected person less dangerous to someone in their close vicnity, but I suspect that's about all.

With a virus this contagious, and this dangerous, choosing something that only cuts your risk of catching it by maybe 10-20% isn't really the best move. FFP3 masks almost negate the chance of infection, and the (accurate) observation that they won't be quite as effective if the face-fit isn't perfect should not be blown up into an assertion that they're not worth wearing if you haven't had a face-fit test.

All my face-fit test did was show that it was possible to fit that mask to my particular face and get a perfect seal, and train me how to put one on so as to achieve that seal. It's not magic. Assuming your face isn't a weird shape and you can follow simple common-sense instructions, anyone should be able to fit one. And even if the seal isn't perfect, it's still likely to filter >90% of the inspired air, and that is well worth having.

 

[dann]

Is it over yet?

Although much is now known about this coronavirus, many questions remain, especially as the virus continues to evolve and infect people on a large scale. There were more than 280,000 new coronavirus cases diagnosed in the last week, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. This is almost certainly an undercount, given the many home tests not included as part of the official tally.
Could you still have Covid-19 if you have symptoms but test negative? A medical analyst weighs in (CNN, Feb 8, 2023)

As expected, the death toll has also been rising this winter - Daily new confirmed COVID-19 deaths - but not as much as in previous pandemic winters, 20-21 and 21-22.
Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 deaths Up from 1.08 to 1.11 million, Dec 1, 2022, to Feb 7, 2023.

 

[dann]

Sure, something is always better than nothing. But since covid is mainly spread by aerosol, a mask that has big gaps round the side is not going to be good protection. Neither is one that doesn't filter inspired air sufficiently. A mask over the mouth only might make an infected person less dangerous to someone in their close vicnity, but I suspect that's about all.

With a virus this contagious, and this dangerous, choosing something that only cuts your risk of catching it by maybe 10-20% isn't really the best move. FFP3 masks almost negate the chance of infection, and the (accurate) observation that they won't be quite as effective if the face-fit isn't perfect should not be blown up into an assertion that they're not worth wearing if you haven't had a face-fit test.

All my face-fit test did was show that it was possible to fit that mask to my particular face and get a perfect seal, and train me how to put one on so as to achieve that seal. It's not magic. Assuming your face isn't a weird shape and you can follow simple common-sense instructions, anyone should be able to fit one. And even if the seal isn't perfect, it's still likely to filter >90% of the inspired air, and that is well worth having.

Steven Novella summarizes what is known at this point about masking up (and mask mandates) against Covid-19:

if we look at the totality of the evidence (not just these trials) the best current conclusions are:
Properly wearing face masks when in public during high risk of spread reduces the risk of spread of respiratory viruses in general and COVID specifically.
During a pandemic of a respiratory virus, mask mandates are an effective public health measure.
N95 masks likely offer the best protection, but need to be worn over the mouth and nose to be effective, and need to be worn continuously when in public (not just in targeted situations).
Masks Revisited (Science-Based Medicine, Feb 15, 2023)

 

[dann]

Excellent Twitter thread about face masks to prevent the transmission of SARS-CoV-2
(long thread; 95 tweets!)

New mask thread. Addresses
- Why so much controversy?
- Airborne transmission
- RCTs of masks - strengths/weaknesses, community, healthcare settings
- Meta-analyses - gold standard or lazy lumping?
- Non-RCT evidence - why is it needed, what does it show?
- AOB
1.
Trisha Greenhalgh (on Twitter, Feb 26, 2023)

Trisha Greenhalgh is Professor of Primary Health Care, Oxford. Independent SAGE.

Since we discussed this recently, from the same Twitter thread:

17.AIRBORNE TRANSMISSION
Whilst respirators protect best, ANY mask is better than none. Efficiency at reducing transmission of an artificial respiratory aerosol:
N95 respirator 99%
Medical mask 59%
Bandana (single) 47% (double) 60%
Face shield 2%
Efficacy of face masks, neck gaiters and face shields for reducing the expulsion of simulated cough-generated aerosols
Trisha Greenhalgh (on Twitter, Feb 26, 2023)

 

[dann]

Thomas Pueyo chips in.

 

[The Atheist]

Covid now causes fewer deaths than Parkinson's disease, and slightly more than drowning.

Less than a third as many as HIV, slightly more than a third of suicides.

(less than a quarter of car crash deaths)

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-number-of-deaths-by-cause

I wonder what the numbers need to be to declare it over?

 

[dann]

Reality Check

I don't understand why The Atheist never checks out New Zealand's numbers, before he makes these nonsensical claims! Covid minimizers gonna minimize, but I don't understand what he hopes to get out of this.

Covid-19 deaths in New Zealand 2023, so far: 211
Road deaths in New Zealand 2023, so far: 56

"(Less than a quarter of car crash deaths)"
Yeah, right!

I'm getting bored with having to fact check for The Atheist all the time.
Would somebody like to take over the job?!

 

[The Atheist]

I don't understand why The Atheist never checks out New Zealand's numbers, before he makes these nonsensical claims!

Your biases are clouding your ability to read what's written yet again.

I showed the world numbers, because NZ's numbers are irrelevant, and if you'd bothered to look, you'd see that I'm 100% correct. I even included the links to the data, but you insist on trying to make arguments about claims not made.

You're clearly unaware that is a logical fallacy known as a strawman, but please keep going, it's hilarious.

 

[dann]

Reality Check

The Atheist is using the same tired old trick as several times before. He is well aware that the number of Covid-19 deaths mentioned in his link is much lower than the actual number of Covid-19 deaths. Unlike road deaths, Covid-19 deaths won't be registered as such in many parts of the world, which is what makes statistics from the parts of the world where they are registered fairly reliably, e.g. New Zealand, relevant unlike his misleading and thus irrelevant Worldometers numbers.

The last time somebody exhibited a similar blatant disregard for reality was probably when Clutch Cargo day after day posted Sweden's newly reported Covid-19 cases in the last 24 hours as 0.

14.9 million excess deaths associated with the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 (WHO, May 5, 2022)

Breaking news:

CDC Death Certificate Guidance Now Includes Long COVID
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has expanded in its guidance for certifying deaths due to the coronavirus to include complications of long COVID. “Emerging evidence suggests that severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus that causes COVID-19, can have lasting effects on nearly every organ and organ system of the body weeks, months, and potentially years after infection,” the new guidance says.California Healthline Daily Edition (Feb 28, 2023)

Until now, these deaths weren't registered as Covid-19 deaths, and I doubt that they will be in most of the world.

But minimizers no doubt still gonna minimize.

 

[The Atheist]

The Atheist is using the same tired old trick as several times before.

Of being completely misrepresented? Quite right.

Good to see you still unable to admit to being wrong and changing the subject while still managing to post misinformation:

14.9-million-excess-deaths-were-associated-with-the-covid-19-pandemic-in-2020-and-2021

What happened in 2020-21 is completely irrelevant to what's happening now, but it does emphasise how desperate you are.

You clearly haven't noticed, but nobody even thinks about covid in 2023, and if you think your lone voice in the vast wilderness will encourage people to continue panicking, then you're severely deluded. Even your beloved New Zealand has zero covid rules. A few recommendations, but no rules.

But minimizers no doubt still gonna minimize.

What you, in your panicked state, refer to as "minimising" is actually reality.

Covid kills the very old & already very sick, plus a tiny number of other people.

As do lots of things.

Move on.

(And just so there's no misconception, or further misprepresentation of my position, I'm well aware it's not going away, it will continue to kill people, and must continue to be monitored and managed by WHO, as it does with HIV, ebola, TB and a plethora of other diseases.)

 

[theprestige]

I dunno about anyone else, but "excess deaths" and "associated with" sound like weasel words to me.

 

[dann]

They may sound like weasel words to you, but it's really very simple: A Covid-19 death used to be somebody dying within 30 days of having been diagnosed with the infection. However, nowadays we know that long haulers may die from the sequelae months or years later because the infection damaged their organs. In that case, the lung/heart/kidney/whatever damage that kills them will, if due to the infection, is now to be registered as having been caused by the SARS-CoV-2 infection. It's as simple as that.
Some people even worry unnecessarily because they think that somebody killed in a traffic accident while having C-19 may be registered as a C-19 death, and who would want to die like that, right?!

If you still don't get it, there's a cure for that at this point of the pandemic. A psychatrist recently wrote an article in Science-Based Medicine about the symptoms exhibited by coronaphobiaphobics and the cure:

Are you a doctor who has written multiple articles saying “now is the time to stop living in fear?” Did you say cautious people were not “truly not actually living right now“, months before anyone had been vaccinated? Are you engulfed with white hot rage by the handful of people who still wear masks in crowds? Have you relentlessly mocked them on your podcasts and Twitter feed? Have you called them “idiots“, “STUPID“, a “bunch of fools” “total morons“ “delusional” and “off their rocker”? Did you mercilessly shame anyone who wanted a booster just weeks before the Omicron variant [url=https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/31/health/omicron-deaths-age-65-elderly.html]ripped through the population? Do you actively encourage strangers, whose lives you know nothing about, to repeatedly expose themselves to a new, mutating virus with unknown long-term consequences? Do people who are still trying to avoid SARS-CoV-2 remind you the pandemic didn’t end in 2021 as you said it would? Have you coined new terms to stigmatize anyone who doesn’t want to repeatedly get sick with COVID for the rest of their lives?

If so, you may have coronaphobiaphobia, an inexplicable fear of and inappropriate obsession with total strangers who want to avoid COVID.
Do You Have Coronaphobiaphobia? Ask Your Doctor if Notmybizumab is Right for You. (Science-Based Medicine, Feb 24, 2023)

The desperation of coronaphobiaphobics shows, and it's tragic to behold. Some of them even get anxiety attacks if they are near a vaccinated person because they fear that they may get killed by shedding! There is really no reason why they should continue to suffer from this panic when the cure is so simple.