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How do we know a pandemic's over?

Can we call the pandemic over because its just hear to stay and we just need to get used to that?
 
It's possible that you need to get used to it. I don't.
How can a pandemic that's alleged to be "just here to stay" be over? It sounds like a contradiction in terms: It's here so it no longer exists.
The cough that dare not speak its name!
 
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ahhell said:
Can we call the pandemic over because its just hear to stay and we just need to get used to that?
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Problem is Covid isn't fitting into our "normal" disease picture. A pandemic is a global epidemic. A normal epidemic has a seasonality - like flu outbreaks in the winter.

Due to it's inherent high transmissibility and ability to quickly evolve and bypass antibodies, there is no seasonality. Waves wax and wane primarily as result of new variants and waning immunity rather than human behaviour and atmospheric factors. We're in a forever pandemic.
 
Wikipedia:
A pandemic (/pænˈdɛmɪk/ pan-DEM-ik) is an epidemic of an infectious disease that has a sudden increase in cases and spreads across a large region, for instance multiple continents or worldwide, affecting a substantial number of individuals. Widespread endemic diseases with a stable number of infected individuals such as recurrences of seasonal influenza are generally excluded as they occur simultaneously in large regions of the globe rather than being spread worldwide.
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IMHO covid is now at the same status as flu. Ie. not a pandemic.
 
American Airlines Flight Attendants Now Face Being Terminated If They Catch COVID-19 Under Harsh New Attendance Rules (PYOK, Jan 15, 2025)
If a flight attendant amasses too many points, then they face disciplinary action or even termination. Just ten points collected over a rolling 12-month period could result in a flight attendant losing their job. Going sick over critical periods like the Fourth of July weekend results in additional points being issued.
(...)
From now on, flight attendants will only be able to avoid having attendance points issued against them for going sick with COVID-19 if they successfully apply for a medical leave of absence or if the Family and Medical Leave Act applies.
A positive COVID-19 test will not, however, be enough evidence to apply for a leave of absence, and flight attendants will need to seek out a professional certificate from a healthcare provider.
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Covid Numbers Rising But No Masks on Planes This Time Around (Live and Let's Fly, Sep 29, 2024)
Airlines were eager to remove restrictions that were not only difficult to enforce but also contributed to the[]/hilite negative perception [/hilite]of air travel. This strain on the industry, combined with the evolving data on mask efficacy, has played a role in airlines and governments resisting a return to mandatory mask-wearing policies.
(...)
For now, it appears that air travel will continue to operate in a mask-free environment, even as the virus continues to persist.
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Not a COVID-19-free environment! Mask-free!
I guess that the strain that masks put on the industry is perceived to be worse than the strain put on the industry by passengers and staff getting infected. The latter is probably easier to ignore and deny, so .... don't look up!

ETA:
Friesein on X, Jan 16, 2025
We've reached the stage of the pandemic where employers wield the burden of COVID as a punitive measure against employees working in hubs of viral transmission.It's like punishing construction workers for getting lung cancer after working with asbestos without protection.
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Dr.Sid said:
Wikipedia:

IMHO covid is now at the same status as flu. Ie. not a pandemic.
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I don't know how you measure status in this respect. Does this count?
D

Post in thread 'How do we know a pandemic's over?'

Another headline emphasizing the flu even though ....
US respiratory virus infections rise, led by flu (CIDRAP, Jan 3, 2024)
During Christmas week, respiratory virus activity continued a steady rise across much of the nation, with the largest spikes seen for flu. COVID-19 levels continue to climb from low levels, and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) activity is still very high in many regions, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said today in its latest updates.
(...)
The weekly percentage of deaths, however, is higher for COVID than for flu or...
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Canada:
Alberta doctors, scientists say COVID-19 response report should be dismissed (CBA, Jan 29, 2025)
Dozens of Alberta scientists, doctors and researchers have penned an open letter calling on the Alberta government to reject the recommendations contained in its recently released pandemic response report.
The group, including experts in infectious disease, pediatrics, virology and immunology, says it is essential government policies are based on well-established scientific evidence, and it claims the task force misrepresents data.
(...)
It's the latest group to speak out against the $2-million task force report, written for the provincial government and published on its website. The Alberta Medical Association has described the report as "anti-science" and "anti-evidence."Released last week, the task force report makes a number of recommendations, including barring healthy children and teens from getting COVID-19 shots and immediately halting the use of COVID vaccines altogether without "full disclosure" of potential risks.
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Trump hasn't even annexed Canada yet, but this looks like something RFK Jr. and Jay Bhattacharia might have drafted.
 
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Another one of those headlines:
50% of heart attack cases since 2020 among adults below 40 (Feb 24, 2025)
Job insecurity and poor work-life balance significantly contributing to cardiovascular diseases and rise in cardiac arrests among working professionals in the country, doctors warn
(...)
Dr Ravi Prakash, senior consultant in cardiology at PSRI Hospital, Delhi, said that data from hospitals across India between 2020 and 2023 show that 50% of heart attack patients are below the age of 40. Doctors and researchers are alarmed by the growing number of cardiac arrests among individuals under 40 years of age. Experts attribute this rise to sedentary lifestyle, stress, poor diet, smoking, alcohol consumption, and even genetic factors. Emphasizing the urgency of the situation, Prakash said, “Heart attacks used to be a disease of the elderly, but in the last 4-5 years, cases among young adults have increased significantly.”
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Hmmm, what could have happened 4-5 years ago.
The article does mention it, but ...
A five-year study by Aakash Healthcare, Delhi, revealed that heart attack cases more than doubled after the Covid-19 pandemic, with emergency cases rising by 60%. The study analysed 762 cases over three distinct periods — before, during, and after the pandemic — each spanning 22 months.
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Before, during, and after the pandemic?! As Ghandi used to say about something else: “I think it would be a good idea.”
 
More headlines:
Cat in the Hat on X, Feb 27, 2025
The bizarre thing is that, at some point yesterday, they changed this headline from the one on the left to the one on the right.
So someone made an intentional decision to change to using the word ‘Covid Alarmist’ AFTER it had been published.

Image
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The COVID Alarmists Were Closer to the Truth Than Anyone Else (NYT, Feb 26, 2025)
It's almost as if the people who were called Covid alarmists weren't the ones who panicked, isn't it?!
It's almost as if they were the ones who, instead of being terrified, responded rationally to the pandemic.

Cat in the Hat's tweet is a response to a thread by
tern on X, Feb 27, 2025
Thank you, New York Times.
But I think 'alarmists' might be the wrong word then?
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Tern writes:
I had forgotten this little story about Elon Musk:
"I was reminded of this all recently when reading about a similar bet that the writer and podcaster Sam Harris said he made with his former friend Elon Musk at the beginning of the pandemic...
"(It’s ugly but perhaps illuminating to realize how many responded to the scary news by gambling on it.)
"Musk’s intuition was that the whole thing would just go away.
"On March 19, 2020, he tweeted that “on current trends,” the country was headed to no new cases sometime by the end of April,
"and he bet Harris that the outbreak would produce fewer than 35,000 cases in total.
"When the official count of Covid deaths passed 35,000 in April, Harris wrote to Musk to ask, cheekily, whether this meant he’d won the bet.
"Musk did not respond. In fact, to read Harris’s retelling of it, that was the end of their friendship and the moment he watched his old comrade disappear into a kind of alternate reality.
"Today, the official Covid death toll in the United States stands at 1.22 million.
"Excess mortality counts, which compare the total number of all-cause deaths to a projection of what they would have been without the pandemic, run a little higher — about 1.5 million.
"In other words, the alarmists were closer to the truth than anyone else."
But back to this bit:
"Musk did not respond. In fact, to read Harris’s retelling of it, that was the end of their friendship and the moment he watched his old comrade disappear into a kind of alternate reality."
He was bad before that point.
But the sad truth is that there is no alternate reality.
He slipped into delusion.
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There is more in the thread.

The most powerful country in the world is now controlled by the guy who was in total denial about the pandemic in 2020.
He probably still is!
He's the one wielding a chainsaw ...
 
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A pretty impressive collection of infectious diseases:
Tern on X, Mar 1, 2025
It's just a covincidence that all these pathogens have had astonishing spikes of infection after everyone got infected with a virus that makes you vulnerable to other infections.
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spikes of loads of pathogens.
 
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New Zealand - and the rest of the world:
Long Covid warning: 'Silent organ damage is a real problem' (RNZ.co.nz, Mar 6, 2025)
Public health experts are urging the government to protect people from Long Covid, which they say could have already affected a quarter of a million New Zealanders.
A new Public Health Communication Centre briefing out on Thursday says the government must develop and implement a Long Covid strategy.
Massey University public health research Professor John Potter said the risk of Long Covid after an Omicron infection remained about 10 percent, and sufferers could be mildly impaired to severely disabled.
The briefing also says Long Covid can also lead to a 'substantially increased' risk of sudden death and 'silent' damage to cells and organs which can lead to later illness.
(...)
The NZ government's response to Long Covid had been "inadequate", said co-author University of Otago's Prof Michael Baker.
"We have all the tools we need to protect people against Long Covid, including using proven public health measures to reduce exposure to the virus when indoors, and regular vaccination to reduce progression to Long Covid.
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Astrid Iversen, virologist and epidemiologist, has been consistently right about the pandemic:
Fem år efter den store nedlukning advarer Oxford-professor om coronavirussen: »Den har overhovedet ikke ramt et eller andet evolutionært loft« (Berlingske.dk, Mar 9, 2025)
Det er ikke slut. 1.825 dage efter at Danmark lukkede ned på grund af en helt ny og skræmmende virustrussel, gør den danske topforsker Astrid Iversen coronastatus. »Der er ikke belæg for at tro, at fordi det går godt lige nu, så kommer det også til at gå godt i fremtiden.«
Fem år efter at en ukendt og skræmmende virus tyngede nationen i knæ og lukkede landet ned, er pusten gået næsten helt ud af coronatruslen.
Ikke sandt?
Den fortælling køber en internationalt fremtrædende og danskfødt Oxford-professor ikke.
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Five years after the great lockdown, Oxford professor warns about the coronavirus: "It has not hit some evolutionary ceiling at all" (Berlingske.dk, Mar 9, 2025)
It's not over. 1,825 days after Denmark locked down due to the threat from a completely new and frightening virus, Danish top researcher Astrid Iversen is making corona status. "There is no evidence for believing that because it is going well right now, it will also go well in the future."
Five years after an unknown and frightening virus weighed the nation down and locked down the country, the corona threat has almost completely lost its momentum.
That's true, isn't it?
An internationally prominent and Danish-born Oxford professor does not buy into that narrative.
- - -
From a short thread about the current variants:
Mike Honey on X, Mar 10, 2025:
Here's the latest variant picture with a global scope.
The XEC.* variant has continued to decline, while the LP.8.1.* variant grew to around 23%.
There seems to be a rebound in the JN.1.* + FLiRT family, rising recently to around 12%
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Image

Biff on X, Mar 10, 2025:
Really interesting, if this trend continues I wonder if Novavax will prefer to just keep their JN.1 formulation instead of developing anything new.
They might not have much of a choice anyway depending on how things end up going at HHS, but this could make it an easier decision
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Mike Honey on X, Mar 10, 2025:
Yeah there's still not anything new and significant for them to target
- it's a real soup of weak contenders with quite diverse mutations at the moment.
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I look at the variant trends in combination with wastewater data to get a sense of the actual variant growth/decline rate. Mike's comment is dead on. Current variant mix are weak contenders. Unfortunately, the overall surveillance is declining so increasing uncertainty.
 
dann said:
it's not exactly news that C19 damages the heart - also in young people:
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Roger Ramjets said:
...and the brain. It will be decades before we know the true extent of the damage. Eventually the folly of just letting everyone get it because most seem to recover with no ill effects will be known. Unfortunately that message will never get through to the deniers though, because it was never about facts for them - it was about 'freedom' .
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Maybe we'll know much sooner than that:
Children are increasingly starting primary school struggling to talk, teachers have warned (MSN.com/The Independent, Mar 11, 2025)
In a new survey, nine in ten primary school teachers said that children's speech and language issues have worsened since 2020.Teachers have been noticing declining school preparedness in young children since the pandemic, with some unable to answer to their own names or go to the toilet by themselves.
Three quarters of teachers surveyed said that parents are often in denial about any speech and language issues their children may have.
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So what's to be done about it?
... they recommend limited screen time.
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Maybe it's just me, but I have a hard time grasping what the inability to go to the toilet by themselves is supposed to have to do with screen time. I would expect the kids to be able to find an instructional video on YouTube or TikTok about going to the toilet.
Toilet training and cutlery use key part of England’s ‘school-readiness skills list’ (yahoo!News/TheGuardian, Mar 11, 2025)
The new guidance came as there were further concerns that children born during the Covid pandemic – “lockdown babies” – have widespread speech and language difficulties, with teachers concerned that parents are “in denial” about the problem.
(...)
Teachers largely blamed the deterioration on a decline in conversations at home and increased time watching screens.
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