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How do we know a pandemic's over?

Bad news for Covid-conscious Swifties (see post 910):
The stadium's online guide warns fans not to bring a wide array of objects, including weapons, face masks, chains, chain wallets, studded jewellery or spurs
'Tay-gating' and mask ban among Wembley security measures (BBC, Aug 15, 2024)


I notice that all the other banned stuff is things that might inflict harm on other people. Face masks are the exact opposite.

Stevie Nicks 'salting the waves' at a Taylor Swift concert.

By the way, have any of you seen the freedumb-lovin' anti-maskers object to the many recent mask bans in the USA?
No, me neither!
 
Largest summer Covid wave in at least two years

USA:
The US is in the midst of a significant Covid-19 wave, with viral activity levels in wastewater the highest they’ve been for a summer surge since July 2022, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s wastewater dashboard.
(...)
Health officials no longer track the coronavirus as closely as they did during the public health emergency, and there are no longer reliable estimates of daily or weekly new infections in the US. Instead, the nation is largely relying on wastewater levels to follow numbers of new cases.
(...)
The rise in cases is being driven by waning immunity in the population and a trio of new variants that have drifted enough from their parent virus, JN.1, to escape the ability of our antibodies to quickly neutralize them.
Cases are also climbing just as children head back to classrooms in many parts of the US, giving the infection plenty of opportunity to spread.
It’s not clear when this surge will peak and start to taper off.
The US is experiencing its largest summer Covid wave in at least two years (CNN, Aug 16, 2024)


Wastewater and COVID ED visits:
I've had people tell me that wastewater is a poor measure of COVID in a community. This is the entire US. I have multiplied the % of COVID ED visits by 10 to get the two measures on similar visual scales. If you are curious, the r-value is 0.71.
Michael Olesen (X, Aug 4, 2024)
See graph in tweet.
 
Yet again we have the example of what some panic merchant keyboard warrior spams and a world-leading virus and vaccine expert*.

The former can be seen over most of the past million words here, while the actual expert has this to say:

"Covid-19 is now endemic."

“The word [endemic] – [and] you ask 100 different scientists what the word means and you’ll get 99 different answers – but to me, it means this virus is now in a position to stay. It’s going to be with us forever.”

Oh, and old people are dying from it.


*Dr Richard Webby, infectious diseases researcher at St Jude Children’s Research Hospital in Memphis, Tennessee and director of the WHO’s Collaborating Centre for Influenza studies.
 
Some people will argue the pandemic isn't over in 3...2...1...

It is only one week ago, in the post Of Panics and Uneducated Morons, that I had to correct The Atheist's post claiming that I didn't provide a link to an article even though I actually did provide it:

How entirely predictable you don't link to the article, which is about expert views, but do link to TwiXter, which is full of uneducated morons who support your panic.
From the NPR link you didn't provide:
Oh noes, get the smelling salts... old, frail people are dying, possibly weeks early! This is tragic.
I think the good people at Johns Hopkins are a leetle bit more informed than some random panic-merchant on the internet:
IOW: deal with it.


The Atheist probably couldn't see the link I provided because I also provided the name of the article and bolded it. And now he is back without providing a link to the article about New Zealander Dr Richard Webby, a "world-leading virus and vaccine expert," that hardly anyone outside of New Zealand has heard of, telling us his utterly subjective meaning of the word endemic: "... but to me, it means ..."
:dl:

That The Atheist doesn't link to article shouldn't surprise anybody, but it's not what The Atheist usually does. That he also doesn't name the article is also in line with the way he usually presents news, so here you have both: Covid-19 will be with us forever - flu expert (RNZ/NZ Herald, Aug 18, 2024).
I got suspicious immediately when The Atheist presented him as a virus expert and not as a COVID-19 expert, which he obviously isn't.

That The Atheist leaves out not only the name of the article, the link to the article, and even the name of the media may be due to the introduction to the article. I think it probably is:
It may not be the topic of many conversations now, but more than 1500 people a week are still contracting Covid-19 in New Zealand and three or four people a day are dying from (!!!) it.

The virus is surging in 84 countries; and at the Olympic Games, dozens of athletes came down with it.

The World Health Organisation (WHO) is worried about dangerous new variants. It is a warning we have heard before – and it comes as vaccination rates wane globally.
Covid-19 will be with us forever - flu expert (RNZ/NZ Herald, Aug 18, 2024)


The Atheist also doesn't tell us what else Webby says:
“But you know, I’d say over the last ... two or three years, it really hasn’t dropped that much at all. It has maintained a level of disease–causing capacity that surprises me a little bit.”
As with any infectious disease, older people and those with underlying health issues were most at risk, he said.


I guess world-renowned Webby hasn't heard about another infectious disease, the one that is currently killing African children and was discovered in Sweden just a few days ago. However, it has me worried that a virus expert doesn't know about all the other viruses that kill children. I can see why an influenza expert may be focussed on his own field of expertise, but a virus expert ought to know about, at least, all the other viruses that kill children.


ETA: "WHO’s Collaborating Centre for Influenza studies" doesn't seem to exist. The correct title appears to be the "WHO Collaborating Center for Studies on the Ecology of Influenza in Animals and Birds."
This is Webby last year about bird flu:
"It's clear that this is a very, very successful virus for birds, and that almost excludes it from being a very, very successful virus in mammals," said Richard Webby, director of the WHO Collaborating Center for Studies on the Ecology of Influenza in Animals and Birds at St. Jude Children's Hospital.
Why public health officials are not panicked about bird flu (Reuters, Feb 24, 2023)
What a genius! What a brilliant man!

Bird flu sends its greetings and tells us not to worry: It's doing fine in dairy cows, cats and people!
 
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“Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn't go away.”

What the panicking minimizers just don't get and probably never will:
Yep. I've never panicked about mpox, COVID, or any other illness, and I don't think anyone who follows me has either.
It's not living in fear, it's living in awareness.
Why You Don't Need to Panic About Mpox (OK Doomer, Aug 16, 2024)
T. Ryan Gregory (X, Aug 17, 2024)
 
Noah Lyles

I’m just going to let you know, there were a lot of people in the village who had COVID that just didn’t say it. I’m just the most popular person who got COVID and actually said I had it.
Noah Lyles Details Racing With COVID At The Paris Olympics (CitiusMag, Aug 18, 2024)


Yes, I think most people can figure that out.

– Lyles told Nightcap that he has ended his season and will not contest any of the remaining Diamond League races.


But it was supposed to be a mere cold, wasn't it?!
 
“Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn't go away.”

The world has moved on.


Hong Kong (see post 1,092):
Covid-19 activity in Hong Kong is expected to see a “further increase,” local health authorities have warned. High-risk individuals – including pregnant women and healthcare workers – are urged to get vaccinated or receive a booster shot.
Hong Kong warns of further increase in local Covid-19 activity; high-risk groups urged to get vaccinated (Hong Kong Free Press/MSN, Aug 9, 2024)


Hong Kong to stop offering Sinovac Covid vaccine when current stocks expire in October (SCMP, Aug 9, 2024)

It is time for Hongkongers to consider another Covid booster (SCMP, Aug 14, 2024)

Hong Kong welcomed over 3.9 million visitors in July, according to provisional figures, a 9 per cent increase compared to same month last year.
Mainland China continued to be the city’s largest source market, with 80% of visitor arrivals from across the border, the Hong Kong Tourism Board (HKTB) announced on Thursday.
Hong Kong welcomes 3.9 million visitors in July, 24% less than before Covid-19 pandemic (Hong Kong Free Press/MSN, Aug 16, 2024)

'Before the pandemic'.
 
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From post 1,104:
“But you know, I’d say over the last ... two or three years, it really hasn’t dropped that much at all. It has maintained a level of disease–causing capacity that surprises me a little bit.”
As with any infectious disease, older people and those with underlying health issues were most at risk, he said.


I guess world-renowned Webby hasn't heard about another infectious disease, the one that is currently killing African children and was discovered in Sweden just a few days ago. However, it has me worried that a virus expert doesn't know about all the other viruses that kill children. I can see why an influenza expert may be focussed on his own field of expertise, but a virus expert ought to know about, at least, all the other viruses that kill children.


I should have added this link to make it clear which virus I was talking about.
Children are particularly vulnerable: around two-thirds of infections in the DRC are in people under the age of 15.
Growing mpox outbreak prompts WHO to declare global health emergency (Nature, Aug 13, 2024)
 
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Some people will argue the pandemic isn't over in 3...2...1...

California:
California’s relentless FLiRT-fueled COVID surge is continuing to spawn infections at a dizzying rate, with coronavirus levels in wastewater reaching some of the highest levels seen since 2022.
(...)
For the week that ended Aug. 10, coronavirus levels in sewage were 84% of last winter’s peak in California, according to estimates posted Friday by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Coronavirus levels in wastewater have already blown past the peaks for the prior two summers, as well as the winter of 2022 to 23.
“It’s so surprising to me that it hasn’t gone down yet,” said Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, an infectious diseases specialist at UC San Francisco. “It’s a little bit more of a prolonged season for California.”
‘A much more infectious’ COVID variant fueling California’s relentless surge (Los Angeles Times, Aug 19, 2024)


Eric Topol objects, but only to the name given to the currently dominant variants in the article:
Front page @latimes
KP.3.1.1. is not a FLiRT variant
https://latimes.com/california/stor...sens-fueled-by-a-much-more-infectious-variant @ronlin
(That's the problem. No R346T mutation. Instead there’s the Q493E mutation in KP.3 and, added to that, the S31 deletion in KP.3.1.1.)
Eric Topol (X, Aug 19, 2024)
T.Ryan Gregory adds: "Thus, not FLiRT but DeFLuQE."

Latest wastewater data on the current wave
Shows signs of peaking in all regions except Northeast
Eric Topol (X, Aug 19, 2024)
See graph in tweet.
 
Some people will argue the pandemic isn't over in 3...2...1...

USA:
JUST IN: U.S. reports more than 1,000 new COVID deaths this week, highest since March
BNO News (X, Aug 19, 2024)
 

South Australia:

Just heard an odd announcement on the local news service:

"Red Cross are requesting that all donors come forward to make donations. Currently one in five donation appointments are being cancelled because of cold or flu-like symptoms, and the blood bank is experiencing severe shortages as a result."

In my mind, I was imagining the announcer thinking:

"Don't say CoVid, don't say CoVid, don't say CoVid."
 
Another problem with this disease and blood donors: the persistence of the virus in the body.
Prevalence of persistent SARS-CoV-2 in a large community surveillance study (Nature, Feb 21, 2024).

I don't know what they do to avoid using virus-contaminated blood - other than ask people with Long Covid not give blood. Do they screen for the virus? (the donors and/or the blood)

And in the case of cancellations "because of cold or flu-like symptoms": What about people who are infected but asymptomatic, pre-symptomatic or even post-symptomatic?
 
China (see posts 1,085, 1,092 and 1,097):
July sees rise in COVID-19 cases in China; experts dismiss concerns saying no major strain on population, healthcare (GlobalTimes, Aug 10, 2024)
Difficult to know what's going on. Various voices in the article.

Russia:
Russia: There are no COVID-19 vaccines left in Novosibirsk
'The region has run out of Covid vaccine, and now it is impossible to get vaccinated against the disease.' http://sib.fm
https://sib.fm/news/2024/08/18/v-novosibirske-ne-ostalos-vaktsiny-ot-covid-19
CoronaHeadsUp (X, Aug 19, 2024)


Poland:
Poland: 'We don't test, so we don't officially record an increase in infections'
"Meanwhile, over the last 24 hours, 1,828 official tests for COVID-19 were performed, of which 853 had a positive result."
Science in Poland
https://naukawpolsce.pl/aktualnosci...c-oficjalnie-nie-odnotowujemy-wzrostu-zakazen
CoronaHeadsUp (X, Aug 19, 2024)
 
Why Brits younger than 65 will have to rely on herd immunity by infection from now on

Welcome to the Nordic version of immunization against SARS-CoV-2: We Want Them Infected!

Advice from the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) on the COVID-19 vaccination programme has continued to adapt as the country has transitioned from pandemic response to recovery. In 2024, the current situation is one of very high levels of population immunity against the SARS-CoV-2 virus and the emergence of new Omicron sub-variants that are not associated with increased disease severity compared with earlier variants.
(...)
Advice
The primary aim of the national COVID-19 vaccination programme remains the prevention of severe illness (hospitalisations and deaths) arising from COVID-19. As currently available COVID-19 vaccines provide limited protection against mild and asymptomatic disease, the focus of the programme is on offering vaccination to those most likely to directly benefit from vaccination, particularly those with underlying health conditions that increase their risk of hospitalisation following infection. For autumn 2024, JCVI advises that a COVID-19 vaccine should be offered to:

* adults aged 65 years and over
* residents in a care home for older adults
* persons aged 6 months to 64 years in a clinical risk group (as defined in tables 3 and 4 of the COVID-19 chapter of the Green Book)
JCVI statement on the COVID-19 vaccination programme for autumn 2024, 8 April 2024 (Gov.uk, Department of Health and Social Care, Aug 2, 2024)


Notice how it doesn't mention that 0-2-year-olds are a high-risk group for hospitazations. Instead, it uses the fact that recent variants don't result in "increased disease severity" (as if the already existing disease severity isn't bad enough) and that the vaccines don't protect entirely against getting infected, i.e. only (!) "provide limited protection against mild and asymptomatic disease" but still provide protection against severe disease and death.
It ignores that a considerable number of people under 65 and not in a "clinical risk group" still do get seriously ill, and that a considerable number of people who don't get ill enough to be hospitalized nevertheless develop severe sequelae from (sometimes 'mild') COVID-19 infections.

Dan O'Hara has a very good thread on X about this:
I've been trying to make sense of the reasoning of the JCVI in its decisions about the Autumn 2024 covid vaccination offer.
(JCVI's the UK authority who recommend who to offer vaccinations to).
1/21
Dan O'Hara (X, Aug 18, 2024)


Dan is not an epidemiologist, virologist, biologist or health-care worker, but I only found his thread because it was retweeted by Jonathan Howard from Science-Based Medicine and the We Want Them Infected podcast series and book.

Dan goes through the reasoning behind this new policy and concludes:
The reasoning is often circular especially when they consider HCWs, or dependent on the exclusion of critical issues such as infection control or NHS business continuity.
And the unspoken assumption unpinning all is the one printed here: the suggestion of herd immunity.
Dan O'Hara (X, Aug 18, 2024)


The thread is too long for me to post it all here, but it's a pretty fast read and has several graphs illustrating the faulty reasoning behind the JCVI statement, for instance the comparison of the number of cases before and after testing was more or less halted, April 1, 2023.
Since the JCVI decision was made at a meeting on Feb 27, 2024, it goes without saying that it can't have taken the numbers from the summer surge this year into account.
 
Notice how it doesn't mention that 0-2-year-olds are a high-risk group for hospitazations.

Completely false.

Show evidence to support that ridiculous claim or retract it.

How many kids are in hospital with covid is irrelevant - they probably caught it there.

Show evidence that covid is causing hospitalisation of 0-2 year olds.

I am not holding my breath for it, and I just know you're going to post another irrelevant wall of text instead of posting evidence, so away you go.
 
Health experts say seven outbreaks involving 60 patients logged between late July and early August at local care homes, with more recorded later
Hong Kong records coronavirus outbreaks in care homes, hospitals after global surge: experts (South China Morning Post, Aug 10, 2024)

Maybe it's time to follow the example of young Hongkongers:
Why so many young Hongkongers continue to mask up long after Covid restrictions have eased (SCMP, April 3, 2024)

60 people caught it in care homes? So what?

When in the rest of Hong Kong, thousands of people would have been infected and reinfected during those months, probably tens of thousands, why wouldn't those in care homes also be catching it?

Despite your denials, the world HAS moved on.
 
Completely false.
Show evidence to support that ridiculous claim or retract it.
How many kids are in hospital with covid is irrelevant - they probably caught it there.
Show evidence that covid is causing hospitalisation of 0-2 year olds.
I am not holding my breath for it, and I just know you're going to post another irrelevant wall of text instead of posting evidence, so away you go.


The Atheist doing his best to keep up appearances:

1) I have recently mentioned the number of C19 hospitalizations of 0-2-year-olds in Denmark and linked to the site where the numbers can be found. There will be new numbers tomorrow at 14:00 CEST.

2) I would like to see The Atheist's evidence to support his idea that "they probably caught it there," but it is interesting that The Atheist seems to think that the spread is so out of control in pediatric hospitals that babies are infected to this extent.

3) I would also like to see The Atheist's evidence for whatever he thinks causes the hospitalizations (and subsequent infections) of babies.

4) And then I would very much like to see The Atheist's retraction of all the absurd lies that I have retracted for him. He could start with the accusation that I don't link to articles that I have presented in this thread. Since then, I have criticized him for doing the thing that he accused me of doing: not linking to articles. Is he able to as much as acknowledge that he is just plain wrong based on the ample documentation I have provided?
Probably not.

Instead, he delivers this his most recent post bereft of facts and documentation.

It is what we have come to expect of him, and in this respect he lives up to the expectations.
 

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