How do we know a pandemic's over?

It sounds more and more like a conspiracy theory....


Alright. Not only do you still not know what a pandemic is, despite having been hand-fed the standard definition, not only have you accused me of lying, you now accuse me of conspiracy mongering. I now see what I should have seen long ago: you are utterly uneducable. I'll be ignoring you from now on.
 
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What are debating again?

We were debating whether in a trial you would have to isolate subjects from the environment, which you don't. But since you can't seem to follow the train of thought, I guess we are done.
 
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As I've already said, such criteria are a spike in the epi curve, or a percentile of the historical distribution (say 90th or 95th), if you have one, or, whether you have historical data or not, a percentile from a model distribution, such as the Poisson or quasi-Poisson.

Again, *you said the criteria exist*. What are they? Not suggestions about what they might be - what are these criteria?

And a related question - who has them?
 
Again, *you said the criteria exist*. What are they? Not suggestions about what they might be - what are these criteria?

I don't know what you are failing to understand. I have said exactly what criteria are used. There was some conversation here a few months ago about what criteria the CDC use to classify a flu season as an epidemic, and the CDC webpage that explained it was linked in a post. I tried to find that webpage just now, but couldn't. Perhaps you can find it. It is just going to say what I said, but, whatever, maybe you'll like it better if they say it than I do.
 
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Money makes the lies go around

I said a page or two ago why - there's no money in saying a pandemic is over.


More bloody lies!
The Atheist has been worried about the expenses that it would take to do something about the pandemic to the extent where his panties get in a twist when any of the things that would limit transmission of the virus in schools are proposed:
No, I don't expect or care whether anyone listens to me. Those who did made a heap of money and those who didn't, didn't.
It's blatantly obvious why you don't try supporting your fantasy with actual evidence, because you don't understand any part of how the economy works.
Pretty funny though, so please do go on.
I'll even give you an example to play with, because it's something I'm quite well-versed in. The approximate cost of sterilising the air at school in New Zealand is about $5 billion.
Explain where that money is going to come from, but more importantly, explain how you're going to do it in a market where there are no people to do the work.
I need a good laugh.
Maybe it would work in your communist haven of Cuba, but other countries don't allow governments to steal money off rich people just because some complete idiot thinks they should.


There have been plenty of conspiracy theories about the UN during the pandemic. QAnon has delivered them. Trump's MAGA Republicans love them. So it's no surprise to see The Atheist embracing and distributing them, too:
Saying it is means the organisation can ask for more and more money, and since the pandemic will never end, it's a gravy train they're not going to get off anytime soon.

Tedros Ghebreyesus himself linked the "public health emergency" phase to the pandemic phase, but has backed of that when money came into the equation.


It doesn't even concern him that air purifiers are damn cheap because expenses aren't even the problem for The Atheist. That is why he ignores posts about cheap air purifiers. The problem for him is that air purifiers in schools make it conspicuous that there is an ongoing pandemic (that's why he's a natural ally of jt512 in this question), and that can't be allowed to happen. That is also the reason why his arguments shift. When it becomes obvious that the pandemic won't go away by ignoring it, he may claim that limiting transmission of the virus just can't be done. Nothing works. People shouldn't be told to wear masks. It doesn't work. And schools shouldn't have air purifiers because that also doesn't work. He doesn't have to know anything about the science of filtering the air, be it through face masks or through HEPA filters. The important thing is that people should be free to ignore the spread of the virus because that will save billionaires a heap of money. He thinks.

Accept that airborne disease is a problem and clean the air. Masks are point of use, but ventilation and filters can have a dramatic effect, not to meantio far-UV. It ends up that current building codes in most places *already* require removal of pathogens, it's just nobody is doing it. All we have to do is implement existing regulations using modern tech, and IMO we can *dramatically* impact public health.
That's the bit I can't have. The cost would be prohibitive everywhere in the world. Schools in NZ are ventilated by windows and the cost of giving just schools adequate clean air would run into billions of dollars we don't have. Add in every medical facility and office and you're talking numbers more than our GDP.
Then there's the issue of skilled people to do it. Given that we can't find enough people to put HVAC systems in data centres, the chances of getting just schools done is plain fantasy. NZ is a relatively rich country and if we can't do it there's even less chance other countries can.
The idea that we can use tech to fix it is nonsensical.


Yes, the alleged lack of people to install air purifiers is also a major problem in The Atheist's world of make-believe! Why bother telling him that air purifiers in schools don't need any complicated work of installing them?! It would be ideal, of course, to have professionals do the job, but you can even bring your own transportable filtration device and plugging it in!
But again, that would make it obvious that the virus is being transmitted everywhere, and The Atheist can't have that. The virus wants to be free, and The Atheist wants it to be free, and consequently limiting transmission of the virus is not only expensive, it is also physically impossible. Filtering the air just can't be done ... and yet:

Dann has repeatedly stated that the world should be conforming to the protocols in place at Davos - from masking and distancing to HEPA-filtered air cond and all the other things it's easy to do when a group of very rich people decide to have a get-together. It would unquestionably cost billions of dollars a day. And that's aside from being a physical impossibility.

The gold standard must be air from outside that has been filtered. That's what we use for data centres, so it seems to me that if it's good enough for inanimate objects, it's what should aspire to for children. Only problem is, it's not cheap.
Better than nothing isn't the aspiration of the "Davos standard at any cost" brigade, who I notice are rapidly backing away from that, because air purifiers weren't the only means of clean air provided at Davos.


That is The Atheist's solution to his own little made-up problem with actually cheap air filtration: When confronted with the fact that air filtration can be done, that it is not only technically but also economically feasible, he confronts it with a higher standard that (allegedly) isn't economically feasible to make it seem to be impossible.
'Well, it would be nice, but I want only the best for kids, and - alas - the best is too expensive and should only serve to protect the data (or pigs!) that billionaires pay good money to protect. Sorry, kids!'
The hypocrisy would be astonishing if it weren't what we are used to from minimizers.

In post 423 I copied in a number of tweets from the minimizer brigade panicking when they heard the story about a women who was happy about her dentist having acquired a HEPA filter! (Somehow not physically or economically impossible!)
'We can't have that! Can't you see we are busy denying there's a pandemic?!'

Or, as The Atheist would put it:
Yes, lots of people are catching covid.
Nobody cares.


The ongoing pandemic doesn't disturb minimizers nearly as much as any and all attempts to limit the transmission of the virus. That's what makes them panic, and that's why it's so important to The Atheist and to jt512 to pretend that the pandemic is over.
 
That's what makes them panic...

If you projected any more than you already do you'd be an IMAX.

Pathetic. Not giving a damn is the furthest thing from panicking. Panicking is exemplified by people who post meaningless walls of illegible text in an effort to get the 99.9999% of people who don't give a damn to join them in their panic.

Sound familiar?

Seems to me you have a phobia about covid.
 
I never said that The Atheist panicked over the pandemic. He panicks when he is is proved wrong about the alleged end of it. In fact, it is so hard for him to grasp data that proves that it's possible to do something about the pandemic that the data becomes "illegible text" to him.
There is a cure for covidiocy, but the patients themselves have to make an effort.
 
Tedros Ghebreyesus

I said a page or two ago why - there's no money in saying a pandemic is over.
Saying it is means the organisation can ask for more and more money, and since the pandemic will never end, it's a gravy train they're not going to get off anytime soon.
Tedros Ghebreyesus himself linked the "public health emergency" phase to the pandemic phase, but has backed of that when money came into the equation.


I forgot about the Tedros Ghebreyesus link while I was busy finding old links to document the inconsistency of The Atheist's arguments, but it's a real gem.
The Atheist's argument seems to be that the link somehow proves that the UN/WHO is only in it for the money, trying to keep the pandemic alive because "it's a gravy train."

However, the link shows us a Tedros Ghebreyesus who is almost as eager to declare the pandemic over as The Atheist and jt512 are:
The leader of the World Health Organization said Friday that he expects the organization to declare an end to the COVID-19 pandemic later this year because statistics on the virus keep declining.
“I am confident that this year we will be able to say that COVID-19 is over as a public health emergency of international concern,” WHO Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told reporters at a Geneva briefing.
(...)
In January, Ghebreyesus said the pandemic was probably at “a transition point,” meaning public health measures could be further de-escalated.
(...)
The U.S. government is looking ahead to the official end of the pandemic. The Biden administration says the two national emergency declarations dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic will end May 11. That means many services, such as free testing and vaccines, will no longer be available.
WHO Leader Expects End of COVID Pandemic In 2023 (WebMD, Mar 18, 2023)


One might expect that when The Atheist posts something like this:
... it would be because Tedros Ghebreyesus himself actually linked the "public health emergency" phase to the pandemic phase in the article, but he does no such thing.

Now, feel free to speculate that the Biden administration may have bribed him to make this optimistic statement in March '23. I don't think it actually did.
However, I think that his declaration that "COVID-19 is over as a public health emergency of international concern" is probably what inspired the Mandela effect in the minimizer community: They imagined hearing Ghebreyesus say what they wanted him to say! Such moments of imaginary wish fulfillment are quite common.

And for the U.S. administration and other governments, what Ghebreyesus said was almost as good: By declaring an end to the emergency phase of the pandemic, he had now made it possible for the USA and other Western countries to put an end to all measures to keep the pandemic under control, which has saved them the expenses to provide health care services "such as free testing and vaccines."

I have no doubt that The Atheist and jt512 will call for a celebration of yet another end of the pandemic when pandemic numbers have started to decrease again in March ´24 (hopefully). The U.S. death toll is already at zero since May '23. As documented in post 558, "we still have around 10,000 deaths per month, and that's only data from 50 countries." All it takes to reach the imaginary end of the pandemic is to make those stubborn 50 countries stop reporting their COVID-19 deaths, too. That shouldn't be too hard to do, and it is no doubt cheaper than supplying schools with Corsi-Rosenthal boxes.
 
A short excerpt from an interview with Eric Topol about the mutations of the virus, the current stage of the pandemic with JN.1 as the dominant variant, and the impact of ever new variants on the risk of getting Long Covid:
The U.S. and other parts of the world are in the midst of another COVID-19 wave, and a new variant is responsible for a majority of cases.
@johnyangtv speaks to @EricTopol about these current trends and whether we need to change our approach to the virus.
PBS NewsHour (X, Jan 13, 2024 - 3:35 min.)
 
Last week's numbers:
Jan 11, 2024
COVID-19: Cases 33,292, Deaths 194, Outbreaks 307.
Influenza: Cases 10,280, Deaths 18, Outbreaks 13.
RSV: Cases 4,033, Deaths 9, Outbreaks 7.
San Diego County Respiratory Virus Surveillance Report

So this week 1,239 more flu cases vs. only 764 more C19 cases, but still almost twice the number of C19 deaths (13) than flu deaths (4) and RSV deaths (3) combined (7).
Notice that counting for all three infectious diseases started at the same time, so it is not as if COVID-19 started with an 'advantage'.
At this point, San Diego still has Scandinavian (early) summer temperatures.


This week:
Jan 18, 2024
COVID-19: Cases 34,719, Deaths 210, Outbreaks 322.
Influenza: Cases 11,396, Deaths 27, Outbreaks 17.
RSV: Cases 4,318, Deaths 10, Outbreaks 7.
San Diego County Respiratory Virus Surveillance Report


More C19 cases than flu cases. The number of flu deaths per week has more than doubled, this week 9, last week 4, but with 16 C19 deaths the CFR of Covid still seems to be considerably higher than that of flu.
 
This week:
More C19 cases than flu cases. The number of flu deaths per week has more than doubled, this week 9, last week 4, but with 16 C19 deaths the CFR of Covid still seems to be considerably higher than that of flu.

The San Diego County weekly reports are pretty informative.

CFR is almost certainly still higher for C19 than flu. In particular for the age group most affected, 65+ y/o. However, that may not be true for younger people. 10.9% of the C19 deaths since summer have been <65 Y/O whereas 22.2% of the C19 deaths have been <65 Y/O.

Some other interesting bits in the current report. Cases and hospitalizations have declined since peaking about 3 weeks ago for C19, RSV, and Flu. Flu, and to a lesser extent RSV exhibit sharper peaking, rising and falling faster than C19. Flu is clearly seasonal, C19 exhibits much less seasonality so is higher most of the year.

Specimen positivity rates have been declining for the last several weeks. JN.1 seems to be running out of steam now that it's well over 50% of new C19 cases. However, deaths, a trailing indicator, have continued to increase and may well do so again next week judging by the increase in C19 ICU patients even while hospitalizations have declined. Probably C19 deaths will start to drop the week after. At this point it looks like the total C19 deaths will be around that of the bad flu year (2017/2018) at 350ish and flu deaths will come in at slightly below an average flu year at 60ish.

A much larger percent of the population has had flu shots compared to the latest C19 booster which is unfortunate since it has been shown to be much more effective against the new variants than the prior boosters.

Curiously, there have been zero C19, RSV, or Flu deaths among the young < 18Y/O since the summer.
 
In particular for the age group most affected, 65+ y/o.

I should have gone with my original nickname for covid - The Boomer Hoover.

Does the age break down further than 65+? Over here, virtually everyone dying from covid is 80+, and over half of them are 90+.

Every detail I'm seeing is showing people already in extremis being the ones dying, while everyone else gets through it. Hospital rates have been up, but well under problematic levels.
 
I should have gone with my original nickname for covid - The Boomer Hoover.

Does the age break down further than 65+? Over here, virtually everyone dying from covid is 80+, and over half of them are 90+.

Every detail I'm seeing is showing people already in extremis being the ones dying, while everyone else gets through it. Hospital rates have been up, but well under problematic levels.

There has been quite a shift from the days of Delta which had more of an impact, (though still much smaller in absolute terms) in younger age groups.

The SD report only covers acute stats. Turns out sequalae may be more of a factor than generally understood. And it appears to impact younger ages more than the elderly. Quite the opposite of the acute phase.

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmed.2021.778434/full
COVID-19 Post-acute Sequelae Among Adults: 12 Month Mortality Risk
This study adds to the accumulating literature of post-acute sequelae following a COVID-19 infection. While those 65 and older are more likely to be hospitalized and die from COVID-19 than those under 65 (18), we found the 12-month mortality of those under 65 hospitalized with COVID-19 to be increased more than their older counterparts when compared to the COVID-19 negative group.
 
Reality Check

We already know that The Atheist has a peculiar way of dealing with numbers:

Fortunately, we are already familiar with The Atheist's use of numbers and hyperbole:
Like I said, you're a lone voice and 99.999% of the population does not give a toss about the disease any more.
I live in an area where about 30% of the population are Chinese and they're largely still wearing masks and that's fine.

Sometimes numbers are difficult. Sometimes people don't get them right because they don't give a toss.


So when The Atheist now uses the word "virtually" as in:
Over here, virtually everyone dying from covid is 80+, and over half of them are 90+.


... it's time to take a closer look, as Seth Meyers would say:
Age and ethnicity of deaths within 28 days of being reported as a case
0 to 59: 454 60 to 69: 475 70 to 79: 111580 to 89: 1944
90+: 1386
Total: 5374
COVID-19: Case demographics (Te Whatu Ora - Health New Zealand)


Now, like some other countries, New Zealand has found a way to drastically reduce the embarrassing number of COVID-19 deaths since March '22. It is done by coding only less than half of them as official COVID-19 deaths:
Age and ethnicity of deaths where COVID-19 is officially coded as the underlying cause
0 to 59: 96 60 to 69: 155 70 to 79: 43680 to 89: 888
90+: 755
Total: 2330


So when The Atheist writes, "virtually everyone dying from covid is 80+," it means that the 2,044 (of 5,374) or 687 (of 2,330) C19 deaths in 0-79-year-olds are virtually non-existent in The Atheist's world. He doesn't see them, he doesn't register them, or, as he puts it:
Every detail I'm seeing is showing people already in extremis being the ones dying, while everyone else gets through it*.


*As for getting through it: In the C19 thread in Science, Mathematics, Medicine, and Technology, The Atheist has made it clear that he doesn't think that Long Covid is a real thing.

- - - -

It would be interesting to know if New Zealand from now on intends to code any deaths from C19 sequelae after "28 days of being reported as a case" as official C19 deaths. Will excess deaths from now on end up on that list? I doubt it.

By the way, I assume that New Zealand's new way of counting C19 deaths is the reason why Our World in Data's graph now looks like this:
Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 deaths in New Zealand

I think that it is also the reason why the total number of C19 deaths is 3,645 (Jan 14, 2024). It may also explain the stretch of zero C19 deaths from July to October 2022. I guess countries aren't allowed to lower their numbers retroactively.
I wonder how many of the still-reporting 50 countries have started doing what NZ is doing.

Minimizers gonna minimize!


ETA: It is obviously also a blatant lie that "over half of them are 90+."
The numbers are there!
 
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'It's the apathy that's the concern'

Of more concern, in my opinion, is the disinformation encouraging people's apathy.

Remember that it's actually summer in Australia!
Fast-forward a couple of months and a similar story has been playing out for thousands of Australians as COVID-19 surges again. Partly it's because the highly mutated new subvariant JN.1 has driven a worldwide spike in infections, hospitalisations and deaths. But it's also probably because so many of the precautions we used to embrace — masking, testing and isolating, vaccination — have been abandoned, deemed unnecessary by those who think the danger has passed, or who misguidedly believe COVID-19 is "just a cold" or necessary to catch for immunity.

Some commentators have described this situation — the crashing of wave after wave of COVID-19, a steady drip, drip, drip of death and mounting chronic illness — as the "new normal". But other experts insist it doesn't have to be, and that continuing on the current trajectory is unsustainable — especially in light of data showing that COVID has decreased life expectancy, will cost the global economy an estimated $US13.8 trillion by 2024, and is decimating the lives of millions of people who have developed long COVID.

Meanwhile, studies continue to pile up showing COVID-19 can cause serious illness affecting every organ system in the body, even in vaccinated people with seemingly mild infections. It can cause cognitive decline and dysfunction consistent with brain injury; trigger immune damage and dysfunction; impair liver, kidney and lung function; and significantly increases the risk of cardiovascular disease and diabetes. Then there's long COVID, a debilitating disease that robs fit and high-functioning people of their ability to think, work and exercise.

The COVID-safe strategies Australian scientists are using to protect themselves from the virus (ABC.net.au, Jan 21, 2024)
 
"US State" instead of Kentucky in the headline is clickbait:
A shocking new statistic has shown that covid deaths in one particular US state have increased by 75 percent since last week.
The data revealed by the Centre for Disease Control (CDC) tracks hospitalizations, deaths, emergency department visits, and test positivity. The numbers showed that Covid was the cause of 9.6 percent of the overall deaths in Kentucky in the last week.
A new strain sweeps across the nation, increased Covid death rates are popping up in many states. The Covid death rate rose to 6.2 percent in Oklahoma, and 5.3 percent in New Hampshire.
Each year the cold weather brings along a spike of cold and flu related viruses, as people's immune systems are compromised. A 2020 study suggested that Covid-19 could stay active for longer in cold, dry conditions. The sharp increase since early fall shows that this may be correct.
US State suffers wrath of new Covid variant with 75 percent increase in deaths (MSN.com, Jan 20, 2024)


However, it is summer and hot in Australia right now, unlike in Kentucky, Oklahoma and New Hampshire.
The weather forecast for Sydney says temperatures between 23oC and 35oC, and yet:
Australia experiencing a COVID ‘wave on wave’ (The Sydney Morning Herald, Jan 9, 2024)
 
We Want Them Infected

San Diego Unified School District: Students and staff who test positive and are experiencing symptoms may return to work or school when they start to feel better, their symptoms are mild and improving, and they have not had a fever for 24 hours without fever reducing medications.


Students and staff who test positive may not only return to work or school when they start (!) to feel better. They can test positive at school and remain there as if there's no risk that they will transmit the virus to other staff and students:
Students and staff who test positive and are asymptomatic may remain in school or at work.
(...)
Dr. Tseng told NBC 7 he feels this change from CPDH is following the insight we are getting from the latest science when it comes to COVID-19 cases. He said, "in terms of the viruses, viruses are not static. They evolve and so we need to evolve with it."
San Diego Unified amends COVID rules for students, staff who are asymptomatic (NBC San Diego, Jan 17, 2024)


I would blame American creationism for Dr. Tseng's poor understanding of evolution if it weren't for the just as monstrously ignorant Danish 'experts'.

And Dr. Tseng is not entirely wrong, of course. It's true that SARS-CoV-2 hasn't remained static! It has evolved into JN.1 and is now more infectious than ever. I wonder what exactly "the insight we are getting from the latest science" is supposed to be, but it may be something like this insane nonsense from one of the insane Danes:
“If we want to reduce serious illness and death from Covid we should seek to speed the epidemic up.”
(...)
Petersen stated that this “might mean the number of cases might increase for a short while” but that it is likely that we will then see cases “crashing as there won’t be many susceptible individuals left”.
(...)
“We should recognise that most of us are likely to get exposed to Omicron sooner or later,” wrote Petersen. “We should therefore remove legal requirements for isolation at a time where the 3x vaxxed have the most protection. This is likely to speed up the epidemic.”
Could speeding up the UK’s Covid-19 infections end the pandemic quicker? (TheWeek, Feb 14, 2022)


One way or the other, there won't be many susceptible individuals left - until a new mutated variant has acquired the ability to evade the immunity acquired by means of the most recent updated vaccines or infections.
Professor Irene Petersen wrote this two years ago, and since then most of us have indeed been exposed to Omicron. Many of us more than once.

I was wondering if Dr. Tseng might not have heard about asymptomatic infection and transmission of COVID-19, but I find it highly unlikely that he hasn't.
I think that, on the contrary, he is well aware of it and has embraced the herd-immunity-by-infection+vaccination strategy. He and the powers that be intend to make it impossible for ordinary people to avoid the infection from now on and will instead try to speed it up.

'We Want Them Infected!'
 
One way or the other, there won't be many susceptible individuals left - until a new mutated variant has acquired the ability to evade the immunity acquired by means of the most recent updated vaccines or infections.
Professor Irene Petersen wrote this two years ago, and since then most of us have indeed been exposed to Omicron. Many of us more than once.
It's already happening.

In New Zealand the percentage of reinfections has jumped up to 63%, after previously hovering around 40-50% for a long time. And now a significant number of those reinfections are less than 90 days old. The virus is not going away - it's settling in!

The number in hospital appears to have peaked but wastewater detections remain high, tracking far above reported cases - which means the 7 day average of 1146 cases per day is way under-counted. The real number is probably more like 5,000 per day. Luckily (for me) it's concentrated in the main population centers, but they are continuing to breed the virus in large numbers so who knows what it will do.

'We Want Them Infected!'
Unbelievably stupid. But that's humans for you. As the numbers from New Zealand show, just letting people get infected won't make it go away. All it does is help the virus stick around waiting for a chance to get a really good mutation - and then we will be really sorry that we didn't eliminate it when we had the chance.
 
Students and staff who test positive may not only return to work or school when they start (!) to feel better. They can test positive at school and remain there as if there's no risk that they will transmit the virus to other staff and students:



I would blame American creationism for Dr. Tseng's poor understanding of evolution if it weren't for the just as monstrously ignorant Danish 'experts'.

And Dr. Tseng is not entirely wrong, of course. It's true that SARS-CoV-2 hasn't remained static! It has evolved into JN.1 and is now more infectious than ever. I wonder what exactly "the insight we are getting from the latest science" is supposed to be, but it may be something like this insane nonsense from one of the insane Danes:



One way or the other, there won't be many susceptible individuals left - until a new mutated variant has acquired the ability to evade the immunity acquired by means of the most recent updated vaccines or infections.
Professor Irene Petersen wrote this two years ago, and since then most of us have indeed been exposed to Omicron. Many of us more than once.

I was wondering if Dr. Tseng might not have heard about asymptomatic infection and transmission of COVID-19, but I find it highly unlikely that he hasn't.
I think that, on the contrary, he is well aware of it and has embraced the herd-immunity-by-infection+vaccination strategy. He and the powers that be intend to make it impossible for ordinary people to avoid the infection from now on and will instead try to speed it up.

'We Want Them Infected!'


Your information is out of date. Since August of 2022, the CDC has been saying that people can end isolation 5 days after they first test positive or have symptoms, provided their symptoms are improving and they have had no fever for 24 hours. This is true even if they continue to test positive. They advise wearing a mask around others for 5 more days, however.
 

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