How did Nate Silver get it so wrong?

[Cl1mh4224rd]

I don't think it's timidity, I think its more that those who voted Brexit/Trump included a lot of people who simply regarded the pollsters as part of the 'establishment' that had ignored their concerns and simply refused to cooperate.

What reason would these people have for making that connection?

 

[Brainster]

Here's an article by Silver himself which notes that he gave Trump a better chance of winning than almost anybody else. Key point:

Polls tend to replicate one another’s mistakes: If a particular type of demographic subgroup is hard to reach on the phone, for instance, the polls may try different workarounds but they’re all likely to have problems of some kind or another. The cacophony of headlines about how “CLINTON LEADS IN POLL” neglected the fact that these leads were often quite small and that if one poll missed, the others potentially would also.

I also think that some folks were assuming that each state was an independent event and therefore, if there were (say) three states where Hillary's odds of winning were 70%, the chances that she would lose them all was pretty small (.3*.3*.3, or about 2.7%). But if, as Silver points out, there is a systematic error in polling, then the events are not independent.

 

[Delvo]

Never discount white supremacists.

bashful brexiteers, ashamed to tell pollsters they don't like sharing buses with coloured types

"don't let your libtard friends know you are a white nationalist"

I don't know if actual racists would lie to pollsters or refuse to respond, but it would certainly be no shock from normal non-racists who are sick & tired of year after year of dealing with the left's "racist racist racist racist racist racist racist racist racist racist racist racist racist racist racist racist racist racist racist racist racist racist racist racist racist racist racist" witchhuntery. And that same rabid obsession of the left with always looking for the nearest excuse to throw an "-ist!" at somebody is exactly how they got in their present situation: not only by pushing away people who could have been their allies, but also by blocking their own ability to comprehend anything about what's really happening and plan accordingly.

 

[Elagabalus]

Trump to Nate Silver "You're fired"!



ETA: "Everybody Wang/Cohn tonight"!

 

[jt512]

Wang keeps his word, eats bug on CNN.

http://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2016/11/12/pollster-eats-bug-after-trump-win-smerconish.cnn

 

[Minoosh]

I'm working on a theory that Democrats are more prone to procrastination than Republicans. They meant to vote for Hillary, but then something happened on Election Day and they didn't quite make it to the polls. If they planned to use the window between 5 and 7 p.m. for example it's easy for that time to get away from you. Republicans (of which I technically am one) are more anal and cross voting off their to-do list as soon as possible.

So in our fun pursuit of postmortems there's that. The "eff it" factor. Possibly exacerbated by Huffington Post putting Hillary's odds of winning at, like, 98 percent. If you thought Hillary's chances were that good maybe you didn't make a huge effort to get to the polls.

 

[Elagabalus]

I'm working on a theory that Democrats are more prone to procrastination than Republicans. They meant to vote for Hillary, but then something happened on Election Day and they didn't quite make it to the polls. If they planned to use the window between 5 and 7 p.m. for example it's easy for that time to get away from you. Republicans (of which I technically am one) are more anal and cross voting off their to-do list as soon as possible.

So in our fun pursuit of postmortems there's that. The "eff it" factor. Possibly exacerbated by Huffington Post putting Hillary's odds of winning at, like, 98 percent. If you thought Hillary's chances were that good maybe you didn't make a huge effort to get to the polls.

First pararetty thin gruel, Minoosh.

I would say that it was a combo of everyone saying it was a dung deal and the Bernie Bros/Millennials wanting to make a protest vote (cuz they thought it was in the bag!).

 

[Minoosh]

First pararetty thin gruel, Minoosh.

I would say that it was a combo of everyone saying it was a dung deal and the Bernie Bros/Millennials wanting to make a protest vote (cuz they thought it was in the bag!).

It describes me, in certain off-year elections, so I can see it happening, but I'm generalizing.

I got off work at 4 p.m. and thought about stopping at home before continuing to the polling place. Knowing my own ability to procrastinate I voted instead of going home. I thought he had a 1 in 4, 1 in 5 chance, something like that. I wasn't going to get stuck on the wrong side of voter turnout this time.

Whether people voted or not is a matter of public record. I wonder if anyone has done a survey of Democrats who didn't vote. We'd have to take the results with a grain of salt though!

 

[Caper]

It describes me, in certain off-year elections, so I can see it happening, but I'm generalizing.

I got off work at 4 p.m. and thought about stopping at home before continuing to the polling place. Knowing my own ability to procrastinate I voted instead of going home. I thought he had a 1 in 4, 1 in 5 chance, something like that. I wasn't going to get stuck on the wrong side of voter turnout this time.

Whether people voted or not is a matter of public record. I wonder if anyone has done a survey of Democrats who didn't vote. We'd have to take the results with a grain of salt though!

I think you are quite right.