Given what little we know of what happened prior to the blow out, the followoing is speculation
<snip interesting stuff>
Why else would the mud be removed?
Probably human error. A poor engineering decision by someone.
Why would the cement discrepancies be overlooked?( Cement cures fully in 20 hours?)
It is quite possible for cement to cure in 20 hours - what we don't know is whether the cement job was a good one in the first place. If it's integrity was compromised during the job, it was not going to hold the influx.
Or.
Displacing the riser to seawater too early may have cause a catastrophic breakdown of the cement's integrity - at the moment we don't know the cause of it's failure.
Why else would the BOP be modified?(So we could watch very expensive video of an ROV trying to activate a ram rendered inoperable)
Numerous newspaper and blogs are confusing the point by using the word "modification". They should be using "configuration".
A BOP
Stack is just that, a stack of different types and numbers of rams and annulars. The configuration of which can be changed to suit the type of well or well conditions that might be expected. It is not unusual.
Normally the configuration of the stack would have been outlined by BP's engineers and Transocean would have constructed the stack to their specifications.
Reading between the lines, BP is saying that the configuration of the BOP stack that Transocean reported to them was not in fact what was run.
Thus we had ROV attempts to activate the "wrong" rams.
That said - the Deepwater Horizon has been on contract in the GoM with BP for over 3 years, so the above argument by BP that Transocean is fully to blame, IMO, isn't valid.
How long had the BOP battery been dead?
The question that needs to be asked is why, during BOP tests, was the this not picked up and if it was, why wasn't it rectified.
There are two subsea control "pods" on a BOP. Only one of them had a dead battery - so the BOP
should have been able to be activated by the other pod.
Again, we do not know the status of the pods prior to the accident.
-Back to the OP. Only way to stop the well, is the side well.
The top hat may ease things, once the methane hydrates are dealt with. Why not let the hydrates clog the top hat? Is it that the hat can't be bolted to the BOP?
The idea of the "top hat" was to act as a funnel over the top of the BOP and funnel the hydrocarbons escaping the well, up pipe to the surface and into a tanker - thus preventing further water pollution. The hydrates clogged the pipe to the surface - that's why the idea failed.
I was thinking that a very large fabric dome could be lowered over the upwelling, above the hydrate flash zone, to capture the spill. It could be anchored to the seabed and the gas and oil pumped out, same as the top hat.
That would require a HUGE dome/funnel. There is no specific "hydrate flash zone", gas hydrate formation is dependent on a certain conditions, mainly temperature and pressure, but the calculations to determine the triggering of hydrate formation in pipeline is not simple.
Large enough, it could just be on the surface, with ballast skirts around the edges, same effect. The oil rises up into the dome, the gas on top of the oil, all of it above the sea level. Just sayin'. We make domes for stadiums, don't we?
I've heard of the Mile High Stadium, but in this case you would, literally, need a dome that is a mile high...
Injecting junk probably won't work, but might.
Cement and other junk from the flowing wellbore into the BOP cavities during the accident may well be the cause of the rams not closing.
Again, we can only speculate.
I hope that this incident will result in better plans made by all parties. For instance, BOPs which can actually shear pipe,
These exist, what is needed is evidence presented in a drilling programme or a safety bridging document between operator and contractor, that the BOP configuration is capable of performing its job on the tools being run into the well.
Subsea BOPs have a redundancy system - dual actuation pods.
Thing is, each of the components in each of the system needs to be operational.
inspected and warranteed by the manufacturer at all deployments.
Inspections are supposed to be regularly performed on not just consumable equipment, but the entire rig and it's plant.
Warrantees are only useful for insurance claims.
Runaway shutdowns on all rig machinery,
Deadman/emergency shutdown switches exist on most equipment. Sometimes they fail - a warrantee won't guarantee that they won't.
flame arrestors, too, on all equipment.
I think you would be surprised at the safety systems on board a MODU. It is obvious that you do not (no slight intended). Frankly no one would step on board one of these rigs if ignition points were not baffled and fuel sources for fire were not monitored and/or controlled.
Top hats ready to use, on standby. Or equivalent.
These are. Worldwide.
The best practice is to make sure you don't need to use them...
Maybe some work could be done to make the oil partially polymerize but still float, which would make spill recovery much easier, and makes containment booms more effective.
When the oil slick is in the order of 2,500 square miles I doubt there is enough containment boom existing in the world to do the job. One report I read was that 160 miles of boom has been deployed. Rough calculation by me is that you'd need nearly 10 times that to contain the current slick. And as soon as the water turns rough (wave height of +3ft), the booms are rendered useless.
Again, prevention, is key.
And maybe, change the corporate culture on how bonuses are earned.
You'd be surprised how little your bonus scenario exists outside of the US. I have not encountered the sorts of incentive schemes you outlined for many many years.
That said, I learned the industry in different countries and have a markedly different work ethos to some I've encountered on US run MODUs.
ETA: The above is not meant to defend the oil industry in the wake of this disaster, only an attempt to clarify some of the points in trvlr2's previous post.