How can peace in Syria be achieved?

[HoverBoarder]

While supporters of both sides of the Syrian conflict angle for their own political advantage, Syrians are dying by the thousands. An estimated 20,000 people have died in Syria already, and there is no indication that the number will stop increasing any time soon.

The most important question now is how to find an end to the conflict. Which is also the sole focus of this thread.

While there are a lot of articles analyzing possible solutions to this crisis, there is one that is essential.


My departing advice on how to save Syria by Kofi Annan


At the core of the impediment to finding a solution to the conflict are three main factors:

1. Primary foreign interests in Syria including Saudi Arabian interests, Iranian interests, and Russian interests hinder the ability to hold groups accountable for war crimes.
2. After so many Syrians have been needlessly killed, and after a long history of sectarian Apartheid maintained through torture, imprisonment, and executions, there is no situation where even a majority of Syrians would accept Assad as a legitimate leader of the Country.
3. Many Alawites fear reprisal killings if Assad were to lose power.

With the failure of the UN peace mission in Syria, most countries have become resigned to the fact that the conflict in Syria will be primarily decided militarily. However, this does not have to be the case.


If a negotiation between Russia and the FSA could be reached to maintain the Russian Naval bases in the country, they could be convinced to support a peaceful resolution to the conflict. Which could also help with convincing China to support a resolution.

If the Alawites, Christians, Kurds, and Druze could be convinced to support an Arab League/UN transition to a representative democracy in Syria that would include protections against sectarian/reprisal killings, than they could be convinced to support a peaceful resolution for a post Assad government.


The conflict in Syria is grave, and shows little signs of stopping anytime soon. However, there are sollutions that can stop the killing if there is a will to put the lives of the Syrian people above the foreign policy needs of other countries.

 

[HoverBoarder]

One of the best articles that I have read about the Alawites and their possible future is the folowing:

Assad's Alawites run out of options

Here is the most important part for this thread:

The risk of widespread sectarian violence and the massive internal displacement that likely would follow rises with the passing of each week in which the leadership of the exiled and internal opposition fails to offer a blueprint for the future that might calm Alawite fears.

Harking back to the massacre at Hama, veteran CIA analyst and former Obama adviser Bruce Riedel wrote last month: "The legacy of Hama terrified Syrians for 30 years. After the many massacres of the last year, the Sunni desire for revenge has only become stronger. So, paradoxically, one of the priorities of the international community after Assad falls will be to protect the Alawite community and its allies from vengeance."

Riedel proposes an international peacekeeping force - for which he says Turkish assistance is vital. "It will need to be strong enough to deter revenge, but also credible and impartial enough to gain Sunni support. [It needs to be] primarily but not exclusively Muslim in composition - [and] Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar should pay for it.

...

Activists in Homs are praising Alawites who have switched sides. They have been sending food and medical supplies to besieged Sunni communities and some Alawites in the security agencies are rated as trusted sources of information.

"[We] have long lists of Alawites who are secretly helping the revolution from the inside," an activist is quoted in the ICG report. "Once the regime falls, there will be plenty of Alawites that we can trust."

But the vast majority of Alawites live in fear of retribution, their fear magnified by their lack of exposure to the rebel fighters, the anti-regime protest movement and/or Sunni neighbours. And again, depending on who is counting, thousands or hundreds of thousands of Alawites are retreating to their western mountain domain...

 

[Her Grey Eminence]

Neighboring countries to shut down bases and disarm all people along their borders.

Then work on a power-sharing arrangement between those elements of the opposition that have not engaged in terrorism.

Mugabe and Morgan Tsvangirai may not be as emotionally appealing to Americans as civil wars, but I bet the Zimbabweans would prefer that to the current mess in Syria.

As the Iranian Government said: "Terrorists don't produce democracy."

 

[Toontown]

Peace in Syria can be achieved by awaiting the failed country's final collapse, then mounting a multinational nation-building effort to establish a functioning democracy with a rule of law.

Yes, yes, yes, I know what all you cynics are thinking: "It can't be done. And besides, we don't even want to try."

Well, don't look at me. I sure as hell ain't going over there. But the question was how might it be done, not whether it will be done.

 

[HoverBoarder]

Neighboring countries to shut down bases and disarm all people along their borders.

Then work on a power-sharing arrangement between those elements of the opposition that have not engaged in terrorism.

Mugabe and Morgan Tsvangirai may not be as emotionally appealing to Americans as civil wars, but I bet the Zimbabweans would prefer that to the current mess in Syria.

As the Iranian Government said: "Terrorists don't produce democracy."

I don't think that Assad would accept being disarmed by his neighbors, and the rebels are not going to disarm while he is still killing his people by the thousands.

As Kofi Anan notes, Assad didn't really care about the last ceasefire after he realized that none of his allies would hold him accountable for breaking it.


As far as "terrorists," the problem is that Assad has used the phrase for anyone and everyone who opposes his iron fist rule. But yes, the technical definition of terrorists do not produce good democracies.

That is why the Iranians have a theocratic dictatorship, and why they recently imprisoned, tortured, and executed anyone seeking democratic representation. They terrorized their people in the textbook definition of terrorism to keep them in line.

The Syrian people however will not accept going back to the terrorism of the Assad regime. 20,000 people were killed in one city by the former Assad regime 30 years ago when he terrorized the Syrians into submission, and 20,000 more have died in this conflict as Assad seeks to terrorize the Syrians into submission again.

The Syrians are not going to sit by and wait for the next 20,000.

 

[McHrozni]

Mugabe and Morgan Tsvangirai may not be as emotionally appealing to Americans as civil wars, but I bet the Zimbabweans would prefer that to the current mess in Syria.

I hope you realize "Zimbabwean power sharing agreement" means that Tsvangirai and his MDC get to share a few titles and government perks but not power, as originally intended. Making an appeal to Zimbabwe of all places is a horrible fail.

As for a peace in Syria, negotiating a new, heavily decentralised Syria with only truly minimal central government and an international peacekeeping force to keep the communities apart may be possible, if Assad is removed first. If his removal was particularily painful and included several top leaders of his regime - I heard there are about 20 or so core members - it may be possible to avert too much of a backlash from the bitter Sunni majority.

McHrozni

 

[dudalb]

Neighboring countries to shut down bases and disarm all people along their borders.

Then work on a power-sharing arrangement between those elements of the opposition that have not engaged in terrorism.

Mugabe and Morgan Tsvangirai may not be as emotionally appealing to Americans as civil wars, but I bet the Zimbabweans would prefer that to the current mess in Syria.

As the Iranian Government said: "Terrorists don't produce democracy."

Assad would LOVE this solution.

And the Iranian Government statement on terrorism is Drop Dead Funny considering how much of it they have supported........

As for the original question:With Great Difficulty and Not Any Time Soon. It has gone beyond disturbances to full scale Civil War,and it will probably have to run it's bloody course.

 

[NWO Sentryman]

Judging by the current situation, it's going to end when one side is negotiating their terms at the end of a sword.

 

[theprestige]

The first step is to recognize that Syria is in fact largely at peace, and the only real violence is false-flag attacks by terrorists, hoping to drum up international support for an overthrow of Syria's rightful government.

All reports to the contrary are made either by dupes or tools of these terrorists.

 

[trustbutverify]

Neighboring countries to shut down bases and disarm all people along their borders.

Then work on a power-sharing arrangement between those elements of the opposition that have not engaged in terrorism.

Mugabe and Morgan Tsvangirai may not be as emotionally appealing to Americans as civil wars, but I bet the Zimbabweans would prefer that to the current mess in Syria.

As the Iranian Government said: "Terrorists don't produce democracy."

I wonder how "emotionally appealing" Mugabe is to his victims.

His appeal to a certain segment of western political fashionistas seems clear though.

 

[Caustic Logic]

Good idea, this thread. I won't be able to do it justice ATM. Got very busy, as well as feeling crappy.

My best solutions involve the use of a time machine. On the runners up, I'm fairly near to HGE above. I realize the rebels and most of the world wouldn't trust the Syrian government to deal with the cleanup fairly, and that concern has plenty of reason, some of it probably even true. It's a very tricky situation.

We could examine all the factors leading to the current state of war
1) Syria's whole gov. policy stuff, opposing Israel, supporting Iran, etc.
2) The West's extreme opposition to such governments
2) The West's encouragement and arming of the rebels (Turkey is the West, and new Libya was made by it), announcing there's no accpetable outcome but the current government's fall.
3) The government'sdesire to protect itself and the people of Syria against what it "calls terrorists." And they believe it, with some reason, some of it at least true.
4) Assad's desire to personally hold on to power and unwillingness to step down
5) The rebel unwillingness to negotiate at all and win totally, whether by force or abject gov. surrender
6) Syrian activists and outsiders continuing to make it sound like the government is responsible for all of the app. 20,000 reported killed, creating a moral black-and-white photo that's soooo not accurate, as the basis of decision
7) etc.

One or more of these factors has to be broken. There are many ways to achieve peace, but barring a negotiated settlement (extremely unlikely) it will entail one side winning and the other ceasing even to struggle, realizing the game is up. It will probably involve one side put at the others' mercy. That's how it happened in Libya, and the mercy was generally thin.

On preventing genocide - It's been said the rebels and their supporters seek regime change at all cotst. It's been countered that the outside world will help mitigate and control those costs. I'm not so sure. I see outsider peacekeepers being attacked, a few killed, as protectors of the Alawite heretics. They'd say 'you don't understand. After the things they did (or were accused of), you need to let us work this out." We'd say, "no, that's bad," but oh well... they did do some nasty stuff, and their kids should have thought about that before letting themselves be born to such monsters...

ETA: That's not bad. I did it some justice.

 

[Caustic Logic]

The first step is to recognize that Syria is in fact largely at peace, and the only real violence is false-flag attacks by terrorists, hoping to drum up international support for an overthrow of Syria's rightful government.

All reports to the contrary are made either by dupes or tools of these terrorists.

I know you're trying to be ironic, but only the extremifying words (Only, etc.) makes it less than what it almost is - a good chunk of the truth. Less so now, as the opposition gets better armed and staffed with outside help and gets Saudi paychecks, it's causing some fairly widespread havoc, but aside from those few thousand mostly Syrian people...

 

[Caustic Logic]

At the core of the impediment to finding a solution to the conflict are three main factors:
Primary foreign interests in Syria including Saudi Arabian interests, Iranian interests, and Russian interests hinder the ability to hold groups accountable for war crimes.

His mentiuon of Saudi Arabia is odd - like a nod to those supporting the opposition also trying to gloss over crimes, but by naming the relatively powerless country in that. Russia has the UNSC veto, Iran just supports the government, thus leaving them in charge and unable to be held accountable. The US, France, etc. and "liberated" Libya also get no mention. Jordan, Turkey, etc., besides the Saudis, all using their various powers to encourage the rebels and keep them armed so they too cannot be held accountable, and in the process insisting that the gov. is accountable for more or less everything, knowing they'll be made to payin defeat, and slobbering over the prospect...

After so many Syrians have been needlessly killed, and after a long history of sectarian Apartheid maintained through torture, imprisonment, and executions, there is no situation where even a majority of Syrians would accept Assad as a legitimate leader of the Country.

Annan shows his bias. This is not a known fact. However, if it could be made a choice between the existing gov. without Assad himself and the ... people trying to take over by any means, that would help turn this from a murky area to a clear one running contrary to the opposition's assertions.

Many Alawites fear reprisal killings if Assad were to lose power.

Yeah, they're supposed to be running now. The decrees that it's okay to kill even their women and children, since everyone hates the Alawites, also feature a warning clause, apparently hoping whole families and areas will vacate themselves with no need for actual slicing up, which is bad for PR...

 

[theprestige]

Just my luck: the only guy who gets my jokes is the one who wants to take them seriously.

 

[trustbutverify]

Not the only one prestige.

 

[HoverBoarder]

Peace in Syria can be achieved by awaiting the failed country's final collapse, then mounting a multinational nation-building effort to establish a functioning democracy with a rule of law.

Yes, yes, yes, I know what all you cynics are thinking: "It can't be done. And besides, we don't even want to try."

Well, don't look at me. I sure as hell ain't going over there. But the question was how might it be done, not whether it will be done.

That definitely is what most people have concluded. A very reasonable assesment.

The problem is the part of "awaiting the failed country's final collapse."

Is it the whole Country that has to collapse before a new system is set up, is it just the Assad regime, and if so, how many people would he take down with him?

A lot of the minority sects of the Country are worried that the new governing structure will be biased against them in the same way or wise that the current system is biased against Sunnis.

If there was a reasonable structure set up in place that would allay their fears, than there would be a whole lot less unnecessary deaths, and a lot less intense of a peacekeeping force needed to maintain it.

 

[McHrozni]

If there was a reasonable structure set up in place that would allay their fears, than there would be a whole lot less unnecessary deaths, and a lot less intense of a peacekeeping force needed to maintain it.

An intense peacekeeping force will be necessary in any event before such structure gets sufficient trust from the population. Of course it's questionable if it will ever come to that, it's much more likely that one side will collapse sometime by the end of the year or so.

McHrozni

 

[HoverBoarder]

An intense peacekeeping force will be necessary in any event before such structure gets sufficient trust from the population. Of course it's questionable if it will ever come to that, it's much more likely that one side will collapse sometime by the end of the year or so.

McHrozni

There will have to be some form of compromise if a peacekeeping force is to be succesful, and the more widely accepted it is among all Syrians, the safer it will be for everyone.

Hopefully that sort of compromise is being worked on right now.

The Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov, Assad's brother who lost both of his legs in the damascus bomb explosion revelead to a Saudi Arabian paper today that Assad had agreed to step down, but is waiting for an acceptable framework.

I first found the story here:

Bogdanov also reportedly claimed that the president is willing to step down and what's needed is a peaceful mechanism for the transfer of power.

And the origional translated version is here:


The Guardian found it surprising that Bogdanov would make the announcement in a Saudi paper, but if it is true that Assad is willing to step down (which has been one of the most central demands of the opposition), it shows that the Assad regime could be serious about getting outside help in negotiating an end to the conflict.

 

[Her Grey Eminence]

That definitely is what most people have concluded. A very reasonable assesment.

There a few things funnier than a crawler.

 

[Her Grey Eminence]

There will have to be some form of compromise if a peacekeeping force is to be succesful, and the more widely accepted it is among all Syrians, the safer it will be for everyone.

Hopefully that sort of compromise is being worked on right now.

The Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov, Assad's brother who lost both of his legs in the damascus bomb explosion revelead to a Saudi Arabian paper today that Assad had agreed to step down, but is waiting for an acceptable framework.

I first found the story here:



And the origional translated version is here:


The Guardian found it surprising that Bogdanov would make the announcement in a Saudi paper, but if it is true that Assad is willing to step down (which has been one of the most central demands of the opposition), it shows that the Assad regime could be serious about getting outside help in negotiating an end to the conflict.

LOL, no wonder you are about only person who still - or at least pretends - to believe that the rebels didn't kill the children of Houla.