rsaavedra
Muse
- Joined
- Oct 2, 2007
- Messages
- 650
The quality and pertinence of the evidence is certainly critical. One interesting approach to teach critical thinking would be to show examples of some simple phenomenon involving causal connections, but presented in such a way that the phenomenon is not completely explained by the available evidence. Kids can then speculate and put forth hypothesis to explain the phenomena, at the same time exercising the kinds of questions to ask in order to seek the missing evidence, to identify and distinguish necessary vs. sufficient evidence, and in general to evaluate the quality or appropriateness of anything presented as "evidence."
Here's an example. There was a famous beach where hundreds of people use to sunbathe and swim. It was well known that at this beach there had been shark sightings and also shark attacks over decades. Researchers evaluated historical data, and observed that the more ice cream sold on the beach was always associated to higher numbers of shark sightings and shark attacks. Because of this correlation, people started speculating wheter eating ice cream increased your changes of being attacked by a shark, because sharks are known to have a very sensitive sense of smell, and this correlation was "evidence" that ice cream eaters attract more sharks.
But... is a correlation between ice cream sales and shark attacks adequate evidence to claim that eating ice cream will make it more likely for you to become a victim of a shark attack?
As it turns out, the actual explanation of that correlation involves a hidden variable: heat. For a given number of people at the beach, the hotter the day the more ice cream gets sold, and also, the more people goes in the water. And the more people in the water, the more likelyhood of shark attacks; hence the correlation. But the increase in ice cream sales was not at all attracting more sharks or causing more shark attacks.
That is just an example. Another one could use detective stories a la Sherlock Holmes. This kind of exercise in different contexts I think could be good training for the critical thinking muscles, so to speak, teaching them the habit of not jumping to conclusions too quickly.
Here's an example. There was a famous beach where hundreds of people use to sunbathe and swim. It was well known that at this beach there had been shark sightings and also shark attacks over decades. Researchers evaluated historical data, and observed that the more ice cream sold on the beach was always associated to higher numbers of shark sightings and shark attacks. Because of this correlation, people started speculating wheter eating ice cream increased your changes of being attacked by a shark, because sharks are known to have a very sensitive sense of smell, and this correlation was "evidence" that ice cream eaters attract more sharks.
But... is a correlation between ice cream sales and shark attacks adequate evidence to claim that eating ice cream will make it more likely for you to become a victim of a shark attack?
As it turns out, the actual explanation of that correlation involves a hidden variable: heat. For a given number of people at the beach, the hotter the day the more ice cream gets sold, and also, the more people goes in the water. And the more people in the water, the more likelyhood of shark attacks; hence the correlation. But the increase in ice cream sales was not at all attracting more sharks or causing more shark attacks.
That is just an example. Another one could use detective stories a la Sherlock Holmes. This kind of exercise in different contexts I think could be good training for the critical thinking muscles, so to speak, teaching them the habit of not jumping to conclusions too quickly.
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