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House Impeachment Inquiry

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varwoche said:
As I understand, this step gives the GOP power to subpoena which enables all sorts of antics, such as calling Hunter Biden to testify. It will happen eventually, but I can see why they're holding off.
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Oh, that's interesting. I did not know that.
 
Segnosaur said:
It would have to be such a massive shift in support of impeachment among republicans that the chance of it happening is unlikely.

The way I see it, republicans have a choice:
- Stick behind Trump. Probably lose the next election, but at least put in a decent fight
- Impeach Trump and get slaughtered in 2020. (Yes, many republicans will probably stuck with the party, but in elections, a few percentage points of support can make a big difference, and there are probably enough hard-core Trump fans that the republicans would be in real trouble if they turned on him.)
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Or don't and get slaughtered if the testimony turns more of the public against Trump. His base is still a minority and that means it depends on the breakdown state by state when it comes to Senate seats.
 
acbytesla said:
There is a tipping point. We just don't know what it is.
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I like to think that GOP senators already are in possession of information that voters don't have - yet - that will begin coming out if they smell blood in the water. It's a conspiracy theory on my part: That a parade of ex-Administration officials have been keeping them briefed on scandals we've never heard of. It's not good for my mental health because it feeds my hope that any second now bits of extremely damaging information are going to start coming out, so that I latch onto any sign support is waning.

This isn't based on anything, really. Just a general belief that whatever we've heard of, Trump has done 10 times worse and that there are "smocking" guns *everywhere*.
 
Minoosh said:
I like to think that GOP senators already are in possession of information that voters don't have - yet - that will begin coming out if they smell blood in the water. It's a conspiracy theory on my part: That a parade of ex-Administration officials have been keeping them briefed on scandals we've never heard of. It's not good for my mental health because it feeds my hope that any second now bits of extremely damaging information are going to start coming out, so that I latch onto any sign support is waning.

This isn't based on anything, really. Just a general belief that whatever we've heard of, Trump has done 10 times worse and that there are "smocking" guns *everywhere*.
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What information that has come forward so far should be plenty. I think the GOP is now throwing all the mud on the wall they can to confuse the issue. I see that Republicans are now going after Taylor. But that man is emblematic of the word credible.

But as long as the Democrats keep it simple and don't go off track it can only get worse for Trump.
 
PhantomWolf said:
People on the inside are suggesting that even now, of there was the ability to have a secret ballot, the result could easily be 90-10 for removal.
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Makes me wonder what tidbits are making their way all the way to New Zealand?

acbytesla said:
You're right. She is facing a serious challenger. Astronaut John Kelly who is quite charismatic.
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It's not only that. She ran for the Senate last year (McCain's seat) and lost to a Democrat. She's only in the Senate because she was then appointed to replace Kyl who had replaced Flake. It might be smart for her to pivot against Trump based solely on what Arizona voters want.

How long would it take Trump's minions to scare up primary challengers for the 2020 Senate elections? When does that window pass? It might affect senators' calculations.
 
acbytesla said:
But as long as the Democrats keep it simple and don't go off track it can only get worse for Trump.
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My previous post to you didn't come out right. I meant, even without a strong Democrat to run against, McSally might STILL tip against Trump. The 2 previous senators were pretty pointedly anti-Trump. Though they voted for his agenda, mostly.
 
Minoosh said:
My previous post to you didn't come out right. I meant, even without a strong Democrat to run against, McSally might STILL tip against Trump. The 2 previous senators were pretty pointedly anti-Trump. Though they voted for his agenda, mostly.
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I understood that. She's in a damned if she does, damned if she doesn't predicament.
 
acbytesla said:
What information that has come forward so far should be plenty. I think the GOP is now throwing all the mud on the wall they can to confuse the issue. I see that Republicans are now going after Taylor. But that man is emblematic of the word credible.

But as long as the Democrats keep it simple and don't go off track it can only get worse for Trump.
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And even some of those going after Taylor seem to not really have their heart in it. Just going through the motions to satisfy the base.
IMHO they would be smarter just to admit what Trump did, but then argue that it might justify censure but not removal from office. I strongly disagree, but I think just trying to ignore the evidence is a stupid tactic.
 
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Marcus said:
Trump is different than Nixon. Even if GOP senators tell him they are ready to convict him (I don't really see this happening) he won't give in, he will fight it out. Possibly all this will result in him losing the general, but the question is who will beat him? Bernie is shown to be too old and frail after his heart attack, Biden appears damaged and tired, front runner Warren, perhaps, but she isn't looking very strong.
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Agree about Bernie's health pretty much ruling him out (no matter what the Bernie Bros thing) , but Biden and Warren both appeal pretty strong vs Trump in the polls.
 
acbytesla said:
I understood that. She's in a damned if she does, damned if she doesn't predicament.
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If someone were trying to recruit primary challengers against a Republican senator, what’s the timeline? When does it become too late to effectively “primary” somebody?
 
One person at work had an interesting idea;If it really looks bad Trump will do an LBJ...not resign but announce he has decided not to run for relection. That way he could claim he left of his own volition, and can play kingmaker in the Republcian contest.
 
Finally I just overheard someone on the news countering the narrative of so-called secret hearings depriving Trump of due process. Jackie Speier of California pointed out that these aren’t hearings, that the GOP has equal time to ask questions, etc. The news channel (don’t know which one) could not get any of the Republican gate-crashers to appear on camera. Bozos. They used a clip of Lindsey Graham whining to represent the “other” side.
 
dudalb said:
One person at work had an interesting idea;If it really looks bad Trump will do an LBJ...not resign but announce he has decided not to run for relection. That way he could claim he left of his own volition, and can play kingmaker in the Republcian contest.
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Unless they beg him not to endorse them.
 
acbytesla said:
I understood that. She's in a damned if she does, damned if she doesn't predicament.
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She's running against Mark Kelly, not John (/nit).

The latest report about VA Whistleblower committee may work against her. The Trump administration set up a VA committee that actually exposes to prosecution and publicity whistleblowers. McSally is a veteran and claims to be for the veterans, yet if she continues to support Trump in the middle of this she is going to lose more votes.
 
dudalb said:
One person at work had an interesting idea;If it really looks bad Trump will do an LBJ...not resign but announce he has decided not to run for relection. That way he could claim he left of his own volition, and can play kingmaker in the Republcian contest.
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That would be interesting. Have any other Republicans even expressed an interest in running?
 
Marcus said:
That would be interesting. Have any other Republicans even expressed an interest in running?
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- Mark Sanford, current Representative and former Governor of South Carolina
- Joe Walsh, current Representative from Illinois and talk radio show host
- Bill Weld, current Governor of Massachusetts, Libertarian Party VP nominee in 2016.

Are all running active campaigns and have filed with and met the criteria under the Federal Election Commission to run for President.
 
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