Cont: House Impeachment Inquiry - part 2

[The Great Zaganza]

It is possible for Trump to win in 2020 - but I don't see how.
He has never gained ground from 2016, which he lost but for the Grace of the Electoral College. And at the time he had the support of real Top Supporters like Roger Ailes and Steve Bannon.
Many have argued that 2016 was a vote against HRC, not one for Trump.
2020 will definitely be one against Trump.

 

[The Don]

It is possible for Trump to win in 2020 - but I don't see how.

Really ?

He has 40% or thereabouts absolutely locked down, a combination of a smaller number of GOP loyalists who would vote for any candidate the GOP puts up regardless of their personal feelings towards them and a much larger group of Trump fans who think that he can do no wrong. These people are highly motivated and will turn out to vote.

Then there are people who may not be Trump fans but who have done fine under the Trump administration as the economy has ticked along. They will vote to maintain the status quo (and would have done so if a Democratic Party President were in power) but they may not be super-motivated to go out to vote.

The GOP is actively undertaking voter suppression in key states to ensure that as few people who are likely to vote Democrat are able to do so. This may only have a marginal effect, but in some key states that's all he needs. It doesn't matter how many millions he loses the popular vote by (and of late GOP Presidents have made a bit of a habit of losing the popular vote), as long as he gets the electoral college votes from the swing states, he's reelected.

The other side of the coin is whoever ends up being the Democratic Party candidate running against him. Unless this candidate is a Bill Clinton or Barack Obama, people may choose to stay at home rather than turn out and vote for an ageing party apparatchik. "Not Trump" may not be a good enough message.

Right now, and in the absence of a charismatic Democratic Party candidate and/or an economic downturn, IMO Donald Trump is highly likely to be reelected. Anyone who actually cares enough about impeachment enough to pay attention is already anti-Trump and has been from day 1.

 

[cullennz]

Really ?

He has 40% or thereabouts absolutely locked down, a combination of a smaller number of GOP loyalists who would vote for any candidate the GOP puts up regardless of their personal feelings towards them and a much larger group of Trump fans who think that he can do no wrong. These people are highly motivated and will turn out to vote.

Then there are people who may not be Trump fans but who have done fine under the Trump administration as the economy has ticked along. They will vote to maintain the status quo (and would have done so if a Democratic Party President were in power) but they may not be super-motivated to go out to vote.

The GOP is actively undertaking voter suppression in key states to ensure that as few people who are likely to vote Democrat are able to do so. This may only have a marginal effect, but in some key states that's all he needs. It doesn't matter how many millions he loses the popular vote by (and of late GOP Presidents have made a bit of a habit of losing the popular vote), as long as he gets the electoral college votes from the swing states, he's reelected.

The other side of the coin is whoever ends up being the Democratic Party candidate running against him. Unless this candidate is a Bill Clinton or Barack Obama, people may choose to stay at home rather than turn out and vote for an ageing party apparatchik. "Not Trump" may not be a good enough message.

Right now, and in the absence of a charismatic Democratic Party candidate and/or an economic downturn, IMO Donald Trump is highly likely to be reelected. Anyone who actually cares enough about impeachment enough to pay attention is already anti-Trump and has been from day 1.

All that and lets face it, all the Dem candidates are a bit ****

 

[cullennz]

Many have argued that 2016 was a vote against HRC, not one for Trump.
2020 will definitely be one against Trump.

Good luck with that

 

[The Great Zaganza]

Good luck with that

I'm not saying it's enough.
Heck, it might be a good thing to keep Trump in the White House - that will make it easier to flip the Senate.

 

[cullennz]

I'm not saying it's enough.
Heck, it might be a good thing to keep Trump in the White House - that will make it easier to flip the Senate.

Either way it is only four more years,

As much as people make out the idiot is Lucifer he can't do any real fundamental damage

 

[Stacyhs]

Either way it is only four more years,

As much as people make out the idiot is Lucifer he can't do any real fundamental damage

One can afford to dismiss it with a wave of the hand when it's not one's country it's happening to. You don't live here and see what's happening like we do.

 

[The Don]

Either way it is only four more years,

As much as people make out the idiot is Lucifer he can't do any real fundamental damage

I'm not so sure about that. Filling the courts with young right wing partisans will be the gift that keeps on giving to the GOP for the next 20, 30 or 40 years. Even if they find it increasingly difficult to get a majority in the House or Senate, the SCOTUS can seriously hamstring the Democratic Party's attempts to implement legislation.

 

[cullennz]

One can afford to dismiss it with a wave of the hand when it's not one's country it's happening to. You don't live here and see what's happening like we do.

Fair point

But then we are stuck with the other end of the spectrum atm and I am not losing a huge amount of sleep over it.

 

[Squeegee Beckenheim]

What he did was wrong but is something that can be settled electorally...

Interfering in an upcoming election can be "settled" in that election? Do you not see any flaw in that logic at all?

 

[The Don]

Fair point

But then we are stuck with the other end of the spectrum atm and I am not losing a huge amount of sleep over it.

I didn't realise that there was a similar attack on democracy in New Zealand with Jacinda Ardern calling for hostile foreign powers to interfere in the last and next elections; the Labour party engaging in wide-scale gerrymandering, voter suppression and voter roll purging; Jacinda Ardern herself enriching herself and her family at the expense of the New Zealand taxpayer by channelling government spending towards her own business; Jacinda Ardern installing her own judges who will then rule on matters affecting her.

Maybe these things are just going unreported in the UK.

IMO there's a huge difference between "the other lot being in power" and the other lot committing illegal acts and fundamentally and permanently damaging the democratic process.

 

[cullennz]

I didn't realise that there was a similar attack on democracy in New Zealand with Jacinda Ardern calling for hostile foreign powers to interfere in the last and next elections; the Labour party engaging in wide-scale gerrymandering, voter suppression and voter roll purging; Jacinda Ardern herself enriching herself and her family at the expense of the New Zealand taxpayer by channelling government spending towards her own business; Jacinda Ardern installing her own judges who will then rule on matters affecting her.

Maybe these things are just going unreported in the UK.

IMO there's a huge difference between "the other lot being in power" and the other lot committing illegal acts and fundamentally and permanently damaging the democratic process.

She isn't

She is just rushing through crappy thought out laws with no consultation, not doing anything they said they would do, and competing with Trump for camera opportunities overseas.

 

[cullennz]

Kind of why I said the opposite end of the spectrum really

 

[Belz...]

Ii do find it amazing that Trumps release of the ukraine call transcripts is construed as a confession yet Bidens hot mic moment bragging about withholding the release of funds to the same country is completely ignored and thrown under the bus.

There's nothing amazing about it if you bothered to follow the events and facts.

Putin told him.

​

You know, for a "master negociator" he sure is easy to sway.

 

[Belz...]

Like I said, he was caught on camera bragging about it, which by your standards would be enough incrimination for Trump to be investigated.

That's like saying that bragging about eating four pizzas in a row should get someone on death row just as bragging about murder would.

Seriously, do you think 'bragging' is the determining factor here?

It's the cult of centrism. Both sides must - as a matter of principle - be the same.

Don't do that. That's not what "centrism" is.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Trump Tweets

The reason the Democrats don’t want to submit the Articles of Impeachment to the Senate is that they don’t want corrupt politician Adam Shifty Schiff to testify under oath, nor do they want the Whistleblower, the missing second Whistleblower, the informer, the Bidens, to testify!

The House Democrats were unable to get even a single vote from the Republicans on their Impeachment Hoax. The Republicans have never been so united! The Dem’s case is so bad that they don’t even want to go to trial!

 

[The Don]

Kind of why I said the opposite end of the spectrum really

Yes, I get it, she and the Labour Party don't present anything like the threat to democracy in New Zealand that Donald Trump and the GOP do in the US - and hence that's why you're not losing much sleep.

Perhaps if she and they were completely dismantling democracy like in the US, you would be.

 

[smartcooky]

Ii do find it amazing that Trumps release of the Ukraine call transcripts is construed as a confession yet Bidens hot mic moment bragging about withholding the release of funds to the same country is completely ignored and thrown under the bus.

If you had actually been paying attention to international events, you would understand the difference between

a. Biden withholding the release of funds to Ukraine for the national benefit of that country's anti-corruption stance, and

b. Trump withholding the release of funds to Ukraine for the personal benefit of Trump.

Trump and his minions claim that Biden strong-armed the Ukrainian government to fire its top prosecutor, Viktor Shokin in order to thwart an investigation into Burisma, the company tied to his son, Hunter Biden.

The reality is that Shokin was fired for the exact opposite reason Trump sycophants are claiming - it was because Shokin wasn't pursuing corruption among his country's politicians. Another piece of reality for you is that Biden wasn't acting as a lone-gun here. Shokin's lack of action against corruption in Ukraine brought criticism from European countries leading to calls for his removal.

In a very real sense, Joe Biden's action could potentially have placed his own son in the firing line had there been anything untoward in the latter's appointment to the board of Burisma.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

I'm coming around to Pelosi delaying the transfer of the Articles to the Senate.
There is good precedent that until the House says it's ready, the Senate can sit on its hands.





If Trump/McConnell want them so bad, maybe they can ask the Courts?

 

[Safe-Keeper]

Ii do find it amazing that Trumps release of the ukraine call transcripts is construed as a confession yet Bidens hot mic moment bragging about withholding the release of funds to the same country is completely ignored and thrown under the bus.

So we're back to reaching whataboutisms. I am disappoint.