Cont: House Impeachment Inquiry - part 2

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thaiboxerken said:
The media, who is being played by the GOP, appears to always believe whatever the GOP says the narrative is when it comes to these kinds of things. No matter what the Democrats do, it's a mistake and emboldens the GOP. The reality is that impeachment is hurting Trump and the GOP quite a bit. Their numbers are dwindling, but you only hear about how the "base" is stronger and more energized. Sure, Trump has above 85% of Republican support, but Republicans only make up around 25-30% of the electorate anymore.
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And our own poor ol' Joe has seemingly bought into the GOP strategy. Of puffing up and arching their collective back like a scared cat, presenting a front of greater fierceness than is real.

All the Dems have to do is just get off their butts and vote in the numbers they have on their side. Unlike as for Clinton, take the threat of Trumpco seriously, and win handily. (Provided the cheating hasn't gotten a lot worse than in '16.)
 
JoeMorgue said:
The distinction I am concerned with is Trump winning or Trump losing.

The distinction between "Trump winning" and "Trump winning but the Democrats impressing us all with how hard they fought or scoring some moral victory" is not.

I don't want to look back with fondness on how hard the Democrats fought Trump, how noble they were in defeat, and how much they stuck to their guns during the fight.

I want them to win.

Sorry guys but the "Rocky" ending isn't good enough, we need "Rocky II"
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I don't know why you assume the only possibilities are successful removal from office this term or else a definite win for Trump for next term. It's completely possible that he doesn't get removed from office this term but doesn't get elected for another term, either.

He's not a video game boss that you have to hit X at the exact right time or else there's no way to beat him.
 
thaiboxerken said:
The media, who is being played by the GOP, appears to always believe whatever the GOP says the narrative is when it comes to these kinds of things. No matter what the Democrats do, it's a mistake and emboldens the GOP. The reality is that impeachment is hurting Trump and the GOP quite a bit. Their numbers are dwindling, but you only hear about how the "base" is stronger and more energized. Sure, Trump has above 85% of Republican support, but Republicans only make up around 25-30% of the electorate anymore.
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The problem is I could cut that statement and past it into any news article, thinkpiece, or talking head political discussion at any point prior to the November and it would fit.

"All the numbers say we are winning!" is what happened in 2016, and that was without constantly having to invoke the imaginary army of off the grid voters that are going to show up to save us all in the end.

(Note. We can just skip the revisionist history where people pretend that anyone was really seeing Donald Trump winning as the likely outcome in 2016 and that the Dems weren't overly confident by retroactively going "Well the polls didn't say he was certain to win...")

Every single fact, statistic, argument, etc presented as to why Donald Trump isn't going to win 2020 was just as or more valid for 2016 and... let me check who's sitting in the White House right now... yep Donald Trump.

The Democrats are gift wrapping a goddamn Hero's Journey perfect winner narrative for Donald Trump in 2020.
 
TragicMonkey said:
I don't know why you assume the only possibilities are successful removal from office this term or else a definite win for Trump for next term. It's completely possible that he doesn't get removed from office this term but doesn't get elected for another term, either.
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Because literally no objective metric is changing. He's almost exactly as popular now as he was the day before he was elected.

These are the major approve/disapprove polls taken in the week before the 2016 election for Donald Trump.*

Economist/YouGov 44/55
Politico/Morning Consult 40/55
Harvard-Harris 41/54
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 40/53
USA Today/Suffolk 44/52

And right now, almost two 3 years later that number, after all the investigations, all the scandals, after 3 years of "The noose is tightening, his support is dropping, he's running out of minions to protect him," in the middle of an Impeachment is....

42.6 approve, 52.9 disapprove.** IT HASN'T CHANGED. And you can pick any random point in his Presidency and that number is going to be within a point or two, usually within the margin of error of the poll.

The only thing changing is that people who already hate Trump hate him more (in politics we have to call that "energizing your base" and pretend like it means something for some reason.). That's swell, hell I hate Trump now more then I ever have, but I don't get double votes for hating Trump twice as much as I did in 2016. And "energizing your base" works both ways. Think the Trumpers aren't going to have a little more pep in their step on the way to polls to protect their leader?

That's why the screenplay the Dems seem to think they are writing for the movie that's gonna win Leonardo Di Caprio an Oscar in about 2040 for putting on 40 lbs and playing Trump ends with some unforeseen ghost army of off the grid voters just magically at some random point start being so impressed with all the dirt the Democrats have dug up on Trump that they are going to vote yet not talk to pollsters or reporters or political analyze beforehand because I guess they want to maintain the element of surprise.

*https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/trump_favorableunfavorable-5493.html

** https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=rrpromo
 
JoeMorgue said:
The problem is I could cut that statement and past it into any news article, thinkpiece, or talking head political discussion at any point prior to the November and it would fit.

"All the numbers say we are winning!" is what happened in 2016, and that was without constantly having to invoke the imaginary army of off the grid voters that are going to show up to save us all in the end.

(Note. We can just skip the revisionist history where people pretend that anyone was really seeing Donald Trump winning as the likely outcome in 2016 and that the Dems weren't overly confident by retroactively going "Well the polls didn't say he was certain to win...")

Every single fact, statistic, argument, etc presented as to why Donald Trump isn't going to win 2020 was just as or more valid for 2016 and... let me check who's sitting in the White House right now... yep Donald Trump.

The Democrats are gift wrapping a goddamn Hero's Journey perfect winner narrative for Donald Trump in 2020.
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Your fatalism doesn't really sit well. I believe that if the Democrats did the opposite of what they are doing now, you'd still be whining.
 
JoeMorgue said:
Because literally no objective metric is changing. He's almost exactly as popular now as he was the day before he was elected.

These are the major approve/disapprove polls taken in the week before the 2016 election for Donald Trump.
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Stop right there. Polls are not accurate indicators of how an election in 11 months is going to go. The difference between the sample size of those polled by even the most wide-ranging poll and the actual number of voters who vote on the day is huge.

If polls were as accurate as you fear they are then this would be a thread about Hillary Clinton's impeachment.
 
thaiboxerken said:
Your fatalism doesn't really sit well. I believe that if the Democrats did the opposite of what they are doing now, you'd still be whining.
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The only thing that would make him happy is for all the cultists to wake up en masse. It's a fantasy. Maybe next week, the people of North Korea will realize that the Kim regime isn't working out in their favor.
 
BrooklynBaby said:
Just a reminder that this impeachment is a nothingburger, born of desperation and all over but the shouting. There is no hope, so forget about it and have a Happy New Year!!!
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Just an acknowledgement of your post being nothing more than a nothingburger; born of desperation and false bravado. Forget about your fake news and accept that your guy Trump is a false hero and have a Happy New Year.
 
Squeegee Beckenheim said:
What is? What data should we be basing our opinions on?
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You should vote for the candidate you think would be best for the job, rather than try to game the system by predicting how everyone else will vote. You only get one vote anyway so all the theorizing is useless even it were accurate.
 
TragicMonkey said:
You should vote for the candidate you think would be best for the job, rather than try to game the system by predicting how everyone else will vote. You only get one vote anyway so all the theorizing is useless even it were accurate.
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That's answering a very different question to the one you were asked.

Unless your argument is that it's literally impossible to have any indication of how an election might go and therefore the only reasonable approach is for everybody to treat every possibility as equally probable, then you presumably feel that the acquisition of data is possible. It seems that you don't believe polls can fulfil that function, so I'm curious as to what you feel is.
 
There are posters who have strong opinions as to how this will play out in the election one way or the other. There's one thing I'm pretty sure of ... nobody knows. This water is so uncharted we may as well be sailing a boat on Jupiter.
 
If we can't trust the polls that doesn't automatically make what essentially amounts to gut feeling faith that everything is just going to work out in the end right.

Again it's become clear that my viewpoint and other people's viewpoints are being held to radically different burdens of proof.

Everything I say requires absolute proof, everyone else's they can just shrug and go "No reason really."

And when I provide evidence to support my position I just "No I'm not accepting that because reasons."
 
varwoche said:
There are posters who have strong opinions as to how this will play out in the election one way or the other. There's one thing I'm pretty sure of ... nobody knows. This water is so uncharted we may as well be sailing a boat on Jupiter.
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Yeah but the "You're doing a heck of a job Dems" side gets to pretend like they are the correct answer by default.
 
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