horrifying attack on Jussie Smollett

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Eddie Dane said:
I recently listened to an interview with a mathematician who pointed out that most people misinterpret statistics.

Prime example: Trump's 14% (?) chance of winning that made everybody so friggin sure HRC was going to win. "A 14% chance is very significant" and "would you get on a train if you had a 14% chance of dying in a train wreck?"
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I think everyone should play dungeons and dragons for 3 years to understand statistics.

5 %is a tiny number until it's something important and you roll the dice.

Think of it, if we have 100 reports of a hate crime, basically (going with the 8%figure) everyone who rolls a 1 on a ten sided dice is full of ****. And beyond that there is a victim of the false report for each of them.

But hey, WHITE PEOPLE CAN TAKE IT RIGHT? sorry I feel like if I say it loud enough it will stop being so morally repugnant.
 
MikeG said:
Why on earth would a successful person involve himself in something like this as a deliberate fraud? Does your "sniff test" not work the other way too? Mine does, and the idea that someone would risk ruining their career with a stunt like this fails to pass my sniff test. Unless, of course, you've got some evidence.

The guy has a broken rib and a bashed face. Therefore someone broke his rib and bashed his face. Either he got someone to do that to him and gave them enough incentive to keep quiet about it........or he was attacked. If he was attacked, there were attackers. The only thing I can see to be questioning of is where this attack took place, because it most certainly had to have happened somewhere.
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So, what is the process for shaming and lambasting people who blew the predictions? Is it formal?
 
sadhatter said:
I think everyone should play dungeons and dragons for 3 years to understand statistics.

5 %is a tiny number until it's something important and you roll the dice.

Think of it, if we have 100 reports of a hate crime, basically (going with the 8%figure) everyone who rolls a 1 on a ten sided dice is full of ****. And beyond that there is a victim of the false report for each of them.

But hey, WHITE PEOPLE CAN TAKE IT RIGHT? sorry I feel like if I say it loud enough it will stop being so morally repugnant.
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There is a great numerical illusion about RPGs. If the campaign is to level 17, and players think the odds of completing it are 50/50, then the chances of surviving each level needs to be 96%. But each player overestimates how challenging each fight is.
 
Whip said:
from 'gay tupac' to gay tawana brawley in a week. oof.
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And it looks like GQ played the role of Rolling Stone in Brawley redux. I have said it here before; I felt really cheated when I found out that all of my youthful indignation in the Brawley case was over a hoax. I have never really trusted Rolling Stone since then.



Eddie Dane said:
I recently listened to an interview with a mathematician who pointed out that most people misinterpret statistics.

Prime example: Trump's 14% (?) chance of winning that made everybody so friggin sure HRC was going to win. "A 14% chance is very significant" and "would you get on a train if you had a 14% chance of dying in a train wreck?"
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Great point. Actually, on the eve of the election, Nate Silver at 538 had Trump's chances at 28%.



https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
 
William Parcher said:
Are there two charges or just one?
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I'm asking this because I think I have seen differing reports. Reports say charged with disorderly conduct in addition to filing false police report (two charges). Other reports say charged with disorderly conduct (one charge).
 
William Parcher said:
I'm asking this because I think I have seen differing reports. Reports say charged with disorderly conduct in addition to filing false police report (two charges). Other reports say charged with disorderly conduct (one charge).
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I read that filing a false police report falls under disorderly persons. It's just the wording
 
There could be charges pending for the letter as well, but we don't know yet because the FBI and Postal Inspectors haven't been participating in the leak-fest.
 
I watched Don Lemon's show last night before bed, where this story was a primary topic. Even though Lemon's panel members were seriously discussing the possibility of Smollett having lied and pointing out the details of his story that don't add up, it ultimately sounded like they still want to believe him somehow.

I don't really understand how it is even considered possible that Smollett could be telling the truth at this point, but I haven't gotten to follow this story very closely. The last thing I heard Lemon say before I hit the sack was that Smollett's whereabouts were unknown and the police were encouraging him to turn himself in. I see that has now occurred.

Disorderly conduct... I don't know much about law, but that's not a very serious charge, is it? I feel like I know a few people who collected those in college.
 
Elagabalus said:
Your mistake is defining this as an act of racism when it clearly is an act of self promotion. How do the Orange Man and Jussie compare then? Who comes out on top in that category?
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Jussie is appealing to racism in his self promotion. Orange Man definitely comes out on top in self promotion, Jussie in an amateur. Pretty much everyone in this thread, even those who believed him, could think of better ways to pull off his scam.
 
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