Homeopathy & critical non-thinking

geni
The case references are awesome and I did not have any trouble with the links. Sorry about the digression to dowsing. There is a 'sameness' to all this stuff, sometimes difficult to see much difference.

I am unfamiliar with the use of the phrase 'homeopathic aggravations'. May be a language difference. Is that like 'treatment'?
 
Kopji said:
geniI am unfamiliar with the use of the phrase 'homeopathic aggravations'. May be a language difference. Is that like 'treatment'?

They are what is respocible when you pick the right remedy and the "client" contunes to get worse. Some homeopaths say that it is a sign of the remedy working. Others say that it is a sign of the remedy working but the dose being wrong. Nasty old sceptics say it is a handy excuse for cases when the "client" gets worse.
 
Well... there is a relation between dowsers and homeopaths, since some have claimed that only dowsers can differenciate between a homepathic solution and plain water. Hmmmm what is that I hear..... a million dollar prize being offered?
 
Actually as I recall, the reason we are on dowsing is this:

Peter has said in his posts above that the "stunt" in the OP is typical of the unfairness of Randi's tests in general. I then challenged him to provide evidence that Randi's tests were unfair, and he then raised the subject of dowsing.
 
Thanks.

I took some time and read one of Randi's tests for dowsing in detail and I found it excruciatingly, annoying, painstakingly, dramatically, boringly... fair.

(btw),
On sock puppets...
A difference in IP addresses is not all that descriptive as to the region someone lives.
I could log in from vastly different IP's, and I'm not very good at it. If I logged on from my work PC, I would appear to live in another state. My home PC should more accurately reflect the actual location. Probably thousands of people in a similar situation.

I've never worried much about sp's though, I just take posts as they come and treat all people as 'real'. If there's good content, I try and respond to that.
 
IP's are not something I know much about but I'm pretty sure it's easy to tell whether an IP is from England or Australia. Certainly there are some US websites that are worried about Australian defamation laws which won't let you on with an Australian IP (so I wish you couldn't tell a US from an Australian IP, but you can!).
 
-shrug-
Not to press the point and I'm not accusing anyone, but if I connect to our corporate site via a VPN tunnel from Australia, I could post from my corporate e-mail and internet e-mail within a few seconds of each other. The corporate post would originate from, say Delaware, and the local one from Woomera (or wherever). :D

I suppose the real trick would be keeping the Angel of Light from getting confused from the demonic one. ;)
 
Kopji said:
-shrug-
Not to press the point and I'm not accusing anyone, but if I connect to our corporate site via a VPN tunnel from Australia, I could post from my corporate e-mail and internet e-mail within a few seconds of each other. The corporate post would originate from, say Delaware, and the local one from Woomera (or wherever). :D

I suppose the real trick would be keeping the Angel of Light from getting confused from the demonic one. ;)

No the real trick would be finding a way to power a computer and get an internet connection at Woomera. Portable generator and satellite connection I suppose.

I'm a lawyer not a computer geek. Explain to me how I get me one o' them "VPN tunnels" could you? I wanna log onto one of those internationally restricted US sites as if I'm in the States. Not that I really need to, but just so I can thumb my nose...
 
princhester said:
In your last post you said you can find some water anywhere you dig, but in the vast majority of places it's only a tiny trickle. You did not qualify this in any way.

What the cite you've given actually says is that you can find *some* water most anywhere, if you drill deep enough and don't need much water [my emphasis].

As I understand the idiom, (and Dictionary.com supports this) when an American says "most anywhere", that is an informal contraction of "almost anywhere".

"Almost anywhere" is of course not a precise term. However, I would have thought that it certainly encompasses "90 to 94% of places".

So your cite supports what Randi says and shows why his usual way of testing dowsers is a valid idea.

Well, I might argue the meaning of 'most' and discuss whether he really meant "almost" or not, but rather than get into all these word games once again I went and consulted some geologists on the subject. I posed the following question:

"Would it be possible to locate a spot where there is no water whatsoever, at any reachable depth?

What sort of geology/geography would produce such a spot? What are chances of finding one?"

The detailed response from expeditious Turtle certainly implies the answer is no. But I wanted an unambiguous answer, so I asked again "is there any such thing as a totally dry spot?"

His response was as follows "Well, this is a very tricky question and it depends on what you consider to be dry. For example you may find a clay formation that is virtually no permeability and thus no free water can be exrtracted from the pore spaces, however there is still water there, it just can't excape."

Another poster added "Yeah, I'm averse to saying that stuff is "impossible" or that it "never" happens. However, I can't readily think of any case where you would encounter zero H2O when boring on earth"

Someone suggested a volcano as a "dry spot." The geologists contradicted this idea, saying that there is water even in magma and lava, and a volcanic erruption is 80% superheated water.

So there we have it, clear aqnd unambiguous, there is no spot anywhere on the planet that would meet Randi's requirements for a "dry spot" I don't think there is any room for misunderstanding or re-interpretation here. There are no dry spots - period.

Now, your next point, as I understand it, is in effect that perhaps a particular dowser can only detect a high yield place for a well, and can't tell the difference between a low yield place and an altogether dry spot.

First, before we bother going any further with this, find me a cite to the effect that this is in fact a limitation that dowsers claim. There's no point in controlling for effects that dowsers themselves don't think will be a problem.

In the first place, it is a moot point, there are no dry spotsl.

In the second place, you are simply assuming dowsers say they can find a dry spot, and you are challenging me to prove that they say they can't. In absence of dowsers specificly stating "we can't find a dry spot" you assume they can. This is an obvious case of argumentium ad ignorantiam.

I think it very unlikely that I will be able to find a dowser who gives an extensive list of all then things he can't do, just on the off chance that someone should challenge him. What if Randi challenges him to flap his arms and fly to the moon, and he has never claimed an inability to do so? Would that be a fair test?

It just seems to me that "I can find an ancient burried streambed" and "I can find a dry spot" are two totally different things, the one does not imply the other. You are entitled to disagree, but the burden of proof is yours.

But given the fact that there are no dry spots, it's probably not worth spending too long researching your reply..
 
I don't think when Randi says "dry spot" he means a spot where the rock and soil literally has no moisture content at all. I don't doubt for a moment that pretty much everywhere on the planet has some moisture content.

In fact, if you look at the responses you had to your question, they do not support your position at all. Even "Expeditious Turtle" who you cite so favourably (and he certainly seems to know what he's talking about) says:

"there are many geological formations that can result in little to no groundwater" [my emphasis]

When you pressed him and put an extra modifier in your question ("totally" dry) he said "you may find a clay formation that is virtually no permeability and thus no free water can be extracted from the pore spaces". For my money, that's a dry spot as far as a well is concerned.

And then look at Leong's answer: "The common problem with boring for water is hitting blue-metal or other hard rock without striking a wet layer. If the water isnt flowing down over that rock layer, you would have to drill through it, and thats quite expensive, and you wouldnt know what was below the rock layers - perhaps a wet layer, and perhaps just rock and more rock."

Leong is clearly asserting that there are areas where there may be no wet layer before you come to "rock and more rock". That is, no water within drillable distance. Exactly what Randi says.

So despite your vigorous assertions to the contrary, your research once again supports Randi.

As to the rest of your post, I'll frame my point another way. You have asserted above that "dowsers claim the ability to find those "ancient buried streambeds" with the 800gpm flow" ie exceptionally high yield water. This is a positive assertion on your part.

Unless you can prove this assertion, there is no reason to assume that it is unreasonable of Randi to set a test that asks dowsers to distinguish between wet and dry.
 
princhester
Sorry, I've gone off topic enough, and there are easier ways than a VPN. My point was that an IP address is not precise enough to establish forum identity 100%.

Peter Morris
My one experience with a dowser was unfortunate, and excuse me if I've shared this before somewhere.

We were at a church camp work weekend out in the desert mountains near Prescott. (My younger days.) One of the chores was to locate a buried pipeline from a water tower at the top of a nearby ridge to the mess-hall. Nobody could remember where it was. The weekend organizers had hired a popular local dowser to find the pipe, and had been at it for several hours, carefully focusing on a spot that was not between the tank and building. Several people were digging deep holes in the hard dirt.

A quick look around the area showed that there was a slight depression directly between the two structures. If I were going to bury a pipe, that's where I'd put it... so I started digging at the deepest spot and found the pipe easily within about 10 minutes.

Rather than getting a 'thanks' I was met with a gruff response like I had insulted the guy or something. I was the bad guy.
I try and keep this lesson in mind when I run into people who want to believe no matter what.

So... if a dowser huffs off if Randi asks to find a 'dry' spot, I am more inclined to think they took it as a sign of disrespect, an affront to their authority. This is not a reasoned reaction to being given an impossible task, but just an excuse.

And I really do try and stay on topic, so I will now.
fadetoblack
 
princhester said:
I don't think when Randi says "dry spot" he means a spot where the rock and soil literally has no moisture content at all. I don't doubt for a moment that pretty much everywhere on the planet has some moisture content.

In fact, if you look at the responses you had to your question, they do not support your position at all. Even "Expeditious Turtle" who you cite so favourably (and he certainly seems to know what he's talking about) says:

"there are many geological formations that can result in little to no groundwater" [my emphasis]

When you pressed him and put an extra modifier in your question ("totally" dry) he said "you may find a clay formation that is virtually no permeability and thus no free water can be extracted from the pore spaces". For my money, that's a dry spot as far as a well is concerned.

Okay, you think that Randi would count that as a dry spot?

The trouble is that, as established in the information given by the geologists, most of the world gives "little to no water"

Randi has challenged the dowsers to locate a "dry spot" and offered a million dollars for doing so. If you are correct in your belief that "little to no" water counts as a dry spot in Randi's definition, then winning the million would be easy. All I would have to do is pick a spot at random, (and I have no geological knowledge or dowsing skill) and I would virtually be certain to hit a spot with "little to no water" and win the milliion.

The fact that nobody has done so yet is pretty good evidence that Randi does not count "little to no water" as a dry spot. If he did, the prize would have been won years ago.


I'll put this another way. Randi has repeatedly said that there is reachable water under more than 90% of the Earth's surface. Now the fact is, most of the Earth's surface only contains trace amounts of water. Randi's statement is true only if he considers trace amounts of water to not be "dry".

So, a spot with "little to no water" might be a dry spot for your money, but Randi quite clearly has a different opinion.

I'll put it yet another way. Randi constructs his tests so that there is no judging required. It has to be obvious to any observer. You can't select a spot with "little to no water" and ask an adjudicator to judge whether this counts as "dry" or not, you have to pick a spot where there is no water at all.

It is impossible to find a spot anywhere on the planet that Randi would recognise as "dry."
 
>Okay, you think that Randi would count that as a dry spot?

>It is impossible to find a spot anywhere on the planet that Randi would recognise as "dry."



Standards for success in the JREF challenge are agreed upon by the JREF and claimant prior to the testing. Debate over what a particular claimant can or cannot do, and the definitions of such things as "water" or "dry" are worked out on an individual basis.

This is done to avoid the type of semantic game that you are now playing.
 
princhester said:
As to the rest of your post, I'll frame my point another way. You have asserted above that "dowsers claim the ability to find those "ancient buried streambeds" with the 800gpm flow" ie exceptionally high yield water. This is a positive assertion on your part.

Unless you can prove this assertion, there is no reason to assume that it is unreasonable of Randi to set a test that asks dowsers to distinguish between wet and dry.


I can indeed prove my assertion that dowsers claim this ability.

I don't say they actually CAN do so.

I merely prove that they SAY they can do so.

You seem to be denying that they say they can.

http://waltonfeed.com/old/dowse.html

"Underground rock is normally fractured or broken in different places. Water is going to take the path of least resistance. Ground water is the same as surface water in that it will also flow in the path of least resistance. If you turn a hose on the water will move through the path of least resistance through the hose to it's opening. Water in the ground does the same thing, following the path of least resistance though the cracks and fissures in the rocks. Many underground aquifers are in very tight formations such as shale, basalt or granite. You'll find the water will follow the cracks and fissures through the rock. The whole purpose of the rods is to find the cracks and fissures where the water is moving through the rock formations, then tap into that rather than going down into solid rock where no water is found. "

http://www.irishwizards.com/about/comments.html

"It was ridiculously easy!! I had never used rods before but after just three hours tuition I was finding underground streams, figuring out how wide they were and what way they were flowing. Seeing everyone else in the line finding the edge of the stream at the same time as me made it even more thrilling - I knew then I wasn't making it up! "

http://www.scientificexploration.org/jse/articles/betz/14.html

" A total analysis of this data led the authors to the conclusion that dowsers are able to sense karst water channels"

So, there we have it, positive proof that dowsers CLAIM the ability to find underground channels.

Whether they can REALLY find them is another matter entirely.
 
Peter Morris said:
If you are correct in your belief that "little to no" water counts as a dry spot in Randi's definition, then winning the million would be easy.

The question of the extensiveness of "little to no" water areas does not appear to me to be a subject that we have got to the bottom of.

"JF Cornwall" from your other fact finding expedition said, as we have discussed, "you can find *some* water most anywhere, if you drill deep enough and don't need much water. Does a gallon per minute count?"

"John" says most wells would yield a considerable amount.

"Expeditious Turtle" contradicts him, and says most wells would find nothing. Maybe you should clarify with him whether he means nothing at all or nothing useful?

It seems to me that Randi's 90 to 94% receives considerable support.

All I would have to do is pick a spot at random, (and I have no geological knowledge or dowsing skill) and I would virtually be certain to hit a spot with "little to no water" and win the milliion.

Why don't contact you Randi and challenge on this basis then? Either you win the million or you prove your point (ie if Randi sets an "absolutely dry" criteria).

As to your three cites, the first guy says he can dowse and tell how much the flow will be. He gives an example of a friend who could allegedly precisely predict the number of gallons per minute. He says you can dowse just by visualising what you are looking for. So he could visualise "dry spot" and find one. Supposedly.

The second cite is from someone who tried dowsing one afternoon. I don't think this person is someone who is going to be applying to Randi, so what they say they can and can't do is pretty irrelevant.

The third cite is from a test of dowsers, the location of which had been carefully chosen because it was mostly rock (ie no water) but with known galleries through it. The dowsers were told beforehand that there was a "gallery" (ie high yield) spot that they had to locate in a "no yield" area. I don't think this indicates anything at all about whether or not the dowsers in question believe they could have distinguished high yield from low yield spots because that simply wasn't on the agenda.

Peter I'd have to say that very probably if you look hard enough you will find a dowser somewhere who says he can find high yield spots but can't distinguish between high and low yield spots. That person would clearly not be able to pass a "find a dry spot" test.

But I think the quotes you have found in which Randi says he tests all dowsers the same way ("find me a dry spot") are generalisations. We both know that Randi doesn't literally test all dowsers that way because we have discussed the "piped water" tests that Randi has participated in before.

I think that if you applied to Randi, saying that you could find high yield spots and distinguish them from low-to-no yield spots, and if you were prepared to agree a protocol that had sufficiently well defined boundaries in that respect, and if you were prepared to pay for what would be a massively expensive test if done in natural circumstances (because of the number of test bores required) then Randi would be happy to test you on that basis.

I doubt anyone has ever offered this because no one silly enough has that much money.

There are definitely practical limits imposed on the ability to test dowsers in natural environments.
 
Look, all you do is get the dowser to agree on 10 spots that are 'dry', then get him to agree on the minimum amout of water he can detect at ground level. Then place that amount randomly at the 10 spots preselected by the dowser as 'dry' and see if he does better than chance. End of story, end of excuses.
 
magicflute said:
Look, all you do is get the dowser to agree on 10 spots that are 'dry', then get him to agree on the minimum amout of water he can detect at ground level. Then place that amount randomly at the 10 spots preselected by the dowser as 'dry' and see if he does better than chance. End of story, end of excuses.

Ahhh - but then you get the "it has to be free flowing water" or "it has to be natural water" caveats.

It is like most paranormal claims IMHO, as soon as you start to try and find out what they can ACTUALLY do, they move the goal posts.

The funny thing is that given the non-blind test before hand they always seem to do amazing well and are happy bunnies, but it all changes when the test goes blind...funny that :rolleyes:
 
Stitch said:
Skeptic: One who is yet undecided as to what is true; one who is looking or inquiring for what is true; an inquirer after facts or reasons.
Sceptic: One who accepts as probably true only those things for which there is supporting evidence, with the probability of truth being in proportion to the amount of evidence.
 

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